40 points?

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We need six wins and four draws.

The games to target have to be Southampton, Weat Ham, QPR, Sunderland, Newcastle and Fulham at home, with Norwich, Wigan and Reading away.

Whether its doable remains to be seen. If you'd asked this time last week I would have said with ease. 7 days and 15 goals without reply later it suddenly seems unlikely.

January and who we buy is beyond critical.

[BegbieAV]

22 points, No chance!

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Did you start this thread ao you can debate or merely type "no chance" or "you're on drugs" to every considered reply?

[KevinGage]

7 wins was enough to see us stop up last year. 

I have a feeling 8 might be enough this year.

We've been arse for most of this season and yet we've still got 4 by the halfway stage. If we're still on 4 by the start of Feb, I'll be worried.

[supertom]

Are babies have been thrown in, trying to run before they can walk, with no one older and reliable to help them.
How do you kick yourself out of a run like this without guys like Petrov to lead you? We've got tough fixtures on the horizon and the biggest problem too, is that every fixture now looks tough.
I think we'll seriously struggle to get close to 40. I do think the bottom 3 will likely all have 30-35 points, so we just have to hope it's enough. Our side is so weak though that I can see us taking a few more batterings too. Our goal difference might be what sends us down.

[Stu]

PeterWithe r u mad ?

What's wrong with being positive? Considering all you've done is say how shit everything is.

[villanic]

We knew this season was going to be a battle although i don't think anyone saw us losing 3-0 to Wigan at home.

I think 38 points would see us safe this season but we might struggle to get to that.

The other worry is that QPR and Reading have the potential to spend big in January and make it tight at the bottom.

[Dave]

Trust me we are down !

People were asking others to trust them that we were down last season. And the season before that.

[Mr Diggles]

Trust me we are down !

People were asking others to trust them that we were down last season. And the season before that.

Also there is around half a season left. Much stranger things have happened in the world than a football team winning, you know, football games.

[ozzjim]

Yes we will get 40.

I think Vlaar and Baker will return at centre half with Clark and all of a sudden we won't look totally hopeless at the back. Lowton and Bennett will be able to get forward. Westwood and Bannan will both recover from the last couple of weeks and be freshers again, Gabby will come back and help us stretch the opposition a bit and there will be 3-4 signings. It won't be pretty, but I reckon we will get there.

Giving up on the 30th December because of 3 straight defeats is pointless and cowardly.

[eastie]

Are babies have been thrown in, trying to run before they can walk, with no one older and reliable to help them.
How do you kick yourself out of a run like this without guys like Petrov to lead you? We've got tough fixtures on the horizon and the biggest problem too, is that every fixture now looks tough.
I think we'll seriously struggle to get close to 40. I do think the bottom 3 will likely all have 30-35 points, so we just have to hope it's enough. Our side is so weak though that I can see us taking a few more batterings too. Our goal difference might be what sends us down.

They are not babies , mostly men in their early 20s not in their teens, not kids as many suggest ,so should have a bit more mental strength than they have shown.

[IFWaters]

Since this duplicates some of another thread where it all kicked off and got ugly I'll just repeat some facts I found by trawling through the premier league tables for last 20 years.

a) AVERAGE points required to avoid survival is 37.4 in 20 team premier league
b) Getting 40 points will give survival in 16 out of 18 seasons where there have been 20 teams (ie 90% chance of survival)
c) Lowest ever points to survive was 34.

Say 38 is target to have a better than evens chance of survival. Twenty more points from 18 games. 5 wins & 5 draws.

'Risen from the grave' stats :

2 best ever runs to achieve survival were West Ham in 2007 and Portsmouth in 2006, with if I recall correctly 21 pts from last 9 games and 20 from last 11 games. Baggies had 13 points in last 10 but were also bottom at Xmas (only time ever done).

I still think QPR and Reading are down, but I also wouldnt be suprised if Redknapp conjures up something in the transfer window to get them moving. To be honest I'm starting to see it as a straight shoot-out between us and Southampton.

Oh and last games of season ; home to Chelsea then away to Wigan. Who gets thrown into the air on 19th May by grateful fans at the DW stadium ?

[Andy_Lochhead_in_the_air]

We may stay up we go down down this season.
All I know for sure is if you knock round in the bottom half for long enough season after season, it will get you in the end.

[john e]

Well I'm not giving up, I'm not accepting relegation without a fight, I'm sure Lambert and the team won't either

I don't know which games the points will come from,
against Wigan I expected some and didn't get any, against Liverpool expected nothing and ended up with 3
We have had all the stuffing knocked out of us by Chelsea, but we have to believe we can regroup, we cannot give in

[Witton Warrior]

Well I'm not giving up, I'm not accepting relegation without a fight, I'm sure Lambert and the team won't either

I don't know which games the points will come from,
against Wigan I expected some and didn't get any, against Liverpool expected nothing and ended up with 3
We have had all the stuffing knocked out of us by Chelsea, but we have to believe we can regroup, we cannot give in

Win or lose, stay up or go down most of us will stick with them john e - Never given up yet!