Relegation Possibility

[paulcomben]

Subtle, Mazrim.  Calling Stoke 'Stole' with Villa's last match in mind.  See what you did there.

[richard moore]

I love your optimism Maz - I wish I had it - but I can easily see Bolton getting 7 points from those games. I would never bet on us going down either, I would hate to win money in that way. Or to lose it come to think of it hopefully!

I also see the Bolton home game as being a long, long way from a formality. They aren't some mid table, nothing to play for team (aka Stoke and we can't even beat them) but a club who are going to be as deep in it as we are come that fixture. I hate players like Davies but I would be extremely concerned if it came down to our youngsters up against the likes of him in what might almost be a one off, cup tie game

[Mazrim]

I didn't think it was optimism. It's what I think is the reality of it.

[N'ZMAV]

If he did relegate us I think he'd have to leave the country for his own safety

He didn't leave the country after relegating his last club, and then jumping ship to the neighbours...

[Nastylee]

Firstly, let me say I am as unhappy as most of you with the situation we are in.
It is deeply concerning if not a matter of life and death. I hope steps are taken to put it right soon and I have no faith in this manager at all and want him gone asap.

However, regarding the possibility of relegation this season, which would essentially mean Blackburn and Bolton overtaking us as things stand...

Blackburn are 7 points behind with a goal difference that essentially makes it 8 points and therefore would have to win 3 games, or win 2 and draw 2 from their last 5 games to overtake us (we have 6 games) if we dont pick up another point (which I dont envisage happening).
This is their fixture list:

Swansea V Blackburn 
Blackburn V Norwich
Tottenham V Blackburn   
Blackburn V Wigan
Chelsea V Blackburn

Can they get 8 points from those? I doubt it. And every point we get makes it even more of a struggle.

Bolton are essentially 7 points behind with the same number of games as us but also have to come to Villa Park. I know we are having a crap season but we have enough to beat them. They're a very poor side.
Their fixtures:

Bolton v Swansea
Villa v Bolton
Sunderland v Bolton
Bolton v Spurs
Bolton v WBA
Stole v Bolton

I honestly dont see them getting 5 points there, never mind 7. And we'll beat them too.
Never say never but if you reckon we're going down, go and give the bookies your money. They love it.

This. People are basically soiling their pants after last night. There are 2 teams from 4 below us who will survive. It fugures that 2 teams will therefore have to collect some points to do this so we can't shit ourselves if they do. What did people expect, that all the teams below us would not pick a point up again?

Wigan look the best of the bunch on form and although QPR recorded a win last night their remaining games are tough, you cannot see more than few points for them. As Maz says, Bolton and Rovers would have to play out of their skins to record 7 points from their remaining games and a quick look on their message boards shows that their fans have given up the ghost.

[Greg N'Ash]

agree about blackburn's fixtures Maz, not so sure about Boltons.  I think its possible they could get 8 points from 2 wins and 2 draws given their fixtures or maybe even beat Stoke away. Unlikely though i agree. Bottom line is if we beat Bolton it won't matter

[Nastylee]

As shit as we've been I can't subscribe to the fact that we won't get a single point this season.

[Chico Hamilton III]

I feel like I've been witnessing a slow-motion car crash for the last 9 months and we're now approaching impact time.

I'm not confident at all but I do think we should just about stay up. Although the very fact that I'm saying that shows just how far we've fallen.

Let McCock-pish keep us up and then sack him him the day after the final game.

No, better still, Randy should run on to the pitch as soon as the fulltime whistle goes on the last day of the season, skipping like David Pleat whilst waving 'Eck's P45. No payoff and no reference ( if any other chairman is mental enough to even consider employing this shit-house of a manager then let him get a reference from Fergie).

I never thought I'd say it but I'm missing decisive Doug at the moment

 

[Fernando Partridge]

Firstly, let me say I am as unhappy as most of you with the situation we are in.
It is deeply concerning if not a matter of life and death. I hope steps are taken to put it right soon and I have no faith in this manager at all and want him gone asap.

However, regarding the possibility of relegation this season, which would essentially mean Blackburn and Bolton overtaking us as things stand...

Blackburn are 7 points behind with a goal difference that essentially makes it 8 points and therefore would have to win 3 games, or win 2 and draw 2 from their last 5 games to overtake us (we have 6 games) if we dont pick up another point (which I dont envisage happening).
This is their fixture list:

Swansea V Blackburn 
Blackburn V Norwich
Tottenham V Blackburn   
Blackburn V Wigan
Chelsea V Blackburn

Can they get 8 points from those? I doubt it. And every point we get makes it even more of a struggle.

Bolton are essentially 7 points behind with the same number of games as us but also have to come to Villa Park. I know we are having a crap season but we have enough to beat them. They're a very poor side.
Their fixtures:

Bolton v Swansea
Villa v Bolton
Sunderland v Bolton
Bolton v Spurs
Bolton v WBA
Stole v Bolton

I honestly dont see them getting 5 points there, never mind 7. And we'll beat them too.
Never say never but if you reckon we're going down, go and give the bookies your money. They love it.

This is a great post! Its rational with current situation and form of the teams. Of course we cannot say for sure what teams will do now to end of season but the post speaks alot of sense. I also like to say that both QPR and Wigan imho are unlikely to carry good run of form for next 6 games as it is actually completley out of form of season as a whole. They both prove they don't have consistency. QPR have home form but not away. Wigan play well and win but they have played well and lost alot and of course just been poor. I don't see any of teams below us finishing above us. I understand the speculation, the fear, the irony  but as outlined here and previous post the other teams wont get the points.   

[David_Nab]

Swansea are going to be a big say in this run in , currently I think its 4 loses in 4 and Bolton and Blackburn have to play them.Infact they themselves could be sucked in if us and the rest pick up some points

[Concrete John]

agree about blackburn's fixtures Maz, not so sure about Boltons.  I think its possible they could get 8 points from 2 wins and 2 draws given their fixtures or maybe even beat Stoke away. Unlikely though i agree. Bottom line is if we beat Bolton it won't matter

That's the thing - it's pretty much in our own hands as a win at home to Bolton will mean only a minor miracle would see them finishing above us.  And as someone else said QPR's run in is pretty tough, so don't expect last night to be a turning point for them either.
 

[Villafirst]

I feel like I've been witnessing a slow-motion car crash for the last 9 months and we're now approaching impact time.

I'm not confident at all but I do think we should just about stay up. Although the very fact that I'm saying that shows just how far we've fallen.

Let McCock-pish keep us up and then sack him him the day after the final game.

No, better still, Randy should run on to the pitch as soon as the fulltime whistle goes on the last day of the season, skipping like David Pleat whilst waving 'Eck's P45. No payoff and no reference ( if any other chairman is mental enough to even consider employing this shit-house of a manager then let him get a reference from Fergie).

I never thought I'd say it but I'm missing decisive Doug at the moment

 

Do you really? You mean the same Mr Ellis who patted himself on the back and was all smug when he sold to Mr Lerner? I don't see him rejoicing now that the future is bright and we're in safe hands!

[Irish villain]

6 points is massive at this stage with few games left, we are in a better position than last week,
I can't see the reason for the meltdown here

Wigan beating Man United might have something to do with it. Did anybody have them down for that particular three points? Or that QPR would give sexy Swansea a hammering? Oh, and our next game being at Old Trafford.

[Chico Hamilton III]

Do you really?

Yep

He'd have sent McLeish down the road months ago and at least he wouldn't have hidden himself away at the first whiff of criticism. Where the fuck's Lerner when there's tough questions to answer?

[Mazrim]

By the way, I only highlighted Bolton and Blackburn for convenience and the fact they currently sit in the bottom 3, I havent ruled out QPR or Wigan still being relegated at all. QPR have horrendous fixtures and Wigan, whilst showing some guts, are very inconsistent.

QPR have to play WBA, Stoke, Spurs, Man City and Chelsea still.
Maybe 4 or 5 points at most. In my opinion not even that.