From ESPN but not from Kiper
Chicago Bears: Defensive line, linebacker
In the 10 years between 2003 and 2012, Chicago boasted a top-10 DVOA defense in seven seasons, a top-5 defense in five and led the league outright in DVOA twice. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average metric, explained here.)
The 2012 Bears defense led the league with a minus-26.8 percent DVOA, the team's best performance in our 25 years of data going back to 1989. (Better defense is negative, not positive, because it is preventing scoring.) Last year, the defense disintegrated. The 2013 Bears defense languished near the bottom of the league with an 8.6 percent DVOA, the team's worst performance in that 24-year span. After a 10-year reign of terror, and absent Lovie Smith and Brian Urlacher, the Monsters of the Midway were decisively vanquished.
By the end of the season, opponents had learned there was no reason to ever pass against the Bears' horror show of a rushing defense, a unit that ranked second-worst in the league in adjusted line yards (4.45) and worst in the league in second-level yards (which measures the run-stopping ability of the linebacking corps). While defensive ends Julius Peppers and Shea McClellin were merely uninspiring against the run, the major headaches came up the middle, as defensive tackles Corey Wootton, Stephen Paea and Landon Cohen had the worst ALY in the league between the tackles when they were actually healthy enough to be on the field. Backup linebacker Jon Bostic didn't help and was often lost in space on run support.
Unfortunately for Bears general manager Phil Emery, there are no easy fixes for this quagmire. The ends and outside linebackers played reasonably well considering their age (Peppers, 34; Lance Briggs, 33; James Anderson, 30) or their lack of experience (McClellin). McClellin, who will be entering his third season, should get better, but Peppers, Briggs and Anderson are on the downward slope of their career arcs. Bostic has potential, but it's too early to pencil him in at the Mike linebacker spot, especially after a disappointing rookie campaign. Wootton, Anderson and two starters up the middle who missed significant time, middle linebacker D.J. Williams and defensive tackle Henry Melton, are all free agents. The cash-strapped Bears have to hope they can swing the low but significant outlay on Williams, while shoring up both defensive tackle and linebacker through the draft as they plan ahead.
Chicago is in a good position to get a potential impact tackle like Timmy Jernigan or Louis Nix III near the middle of the first round, as well as draft projects at both positions in later rounds as the defensive retrenchment begins.
Timmy Jernigan
DTJunior6-2, 298 lbsFlorida St
Scouts Grade94
Position Rank1
Overall Rank6
40-YD Dash4.99
ConferenceACC
2013 NCAA Football Stats
Tackles Sacks INT
44 4.5 —
ProfilePlayer NewsConversation
Overall Football Traits
Production 3 2011: (13/0) 30 tackles, 6 TFL, 2.5 sacks; 2012: (13/2) 46 tackles, 8 TFL, 1.5 sacks
Height-Weight-Speed 3 On the lighter side, but adequate height and good estimated top-end speed.
Durability 3 Sustained high ankle sprain in spring of 2013. Suffered torn MCL and slightly torn meniscus in spring of 2012.
Intangibles 2 Above-average work ethic and desire to get better. Student of the game and aware of Florida State's impressive history at defensive tackle. Relationship with position coach Odell Haggins played big role in decision to attend Florida State. Haggins has been a coach at Florida State for 20 years and played nose guard for the Seminoles. Jernigan has made questionable comments on Twitter and maturity needs to be investigated further.
1 = EXCEPTIONAL2 = ABOVE AVERAGE3 = AVERAGE4 = BELOW AVERAGE5 = MARGINAL
Defensive Tackle Specific Traits
Versus the Run 1 Disruptive and can make plays in the backfield. Anchors well one-on-one and flashes the ability to split double teams. Strong with low center of gravity. Room for improvement as a hand fighter and could get off blocks quicker at times, but flashes the ability to control blockers. Shoots hands inside and is strong up top. Above-average range and can make plays outside the tackle.
Pass Rush Skills 3 Adequate bull rusher who can generate push and move quarterbacks off the spot, but power not his greatest asset and he relies on it too much at this point. He has tools to get much better in this area. Flashes effective rip and swim moves. Enough lateral mobility to set up offensive linemen in one direction before redirecting in the opposite direction. Above-average closing speed and body control for size.
Quickness (hands/feet) 1 Active and violent hands defending the run and rushing the passer. Explosive first step. Beats blockers to the point and can shoot gaps. Above-average lateral mobility and balance working down line.
Toughness/Motor 2 Plays with an edge. Relentless would be an understatement. Is aided by consistent rotation that kept him fresh, but shows above-average overall effort. Chases the run and can get to quarterback with second effort. Doesn't gear down when teams commit two blockers to him, or back down when blockers try to get in his face.
Louis Nix III
DTSenior6-3, 340 lbsNotre Dame
Scouts Grade92
Position Rank2
Overall Rank14
40-YD Dash5.17
ConferenceIA Indep.
2013 NCAA Football Stats
Tackles Sacks INT
8 — —
ProfilePlayer NewsConversation
Overall Football Traits
Production 2 2010: Redshirted; 2011: (13/11) 45 tackles, 4.5 TFL, .5 sack; 2012: (13/11) 50 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 2 sacks; Career: 4 PBU, 2 FF.
Height-Weight-Speed 1 Ideal measureables for a two-gap DT, with a massive lower half. Estimated top-end speed is very good for size.
Durability 1 Suffered a minor leg injury during the BCS title game versus Alabama, but returned to the field a few plays later. No other significant injuries to our knowledge.
Intangibles 2 Oldest of 11 siblings and half-siblings. Elected to stay in school to fulfill his mother Stephanie Wingfield's dream of walking out with him on Senior Day. Charismatic and outgoing individual who is enrolled in the College of Arts and Letters as a film, television and theatre major. Scouts will monitor weight, which has been an issue in the past. Nix weighed as much as 368 pounds in high school. Worked hard in summer of 2012 and was reportedly in the best shape of his life during the 2012 season.
1 = EXCEPTIONAL2 = ABOVE AVERAGE3 = AVERAGE4 = BELOW AVERAGE5 = MARGINAL
Defensive Tackle Specific Traits
Versus the Run 1 Disruptive two-gap interior space eater. Ideal anchor and rarely gives ground. Comes off with good pad level to get initial surge. Above-average upper-body power. Heavy and active hands to shed blocks and redirect. Range is more than adequate for a man his size. Good instincts to find the ball.
Pass Rush Skills 3 More disruptive than production indicates. Not strictly a power rusher and shows a variety of pass-rush moves. When he's fresh he comes off the ball with the pad level and leverage to collapse pocket. Hands are always working. Closing burst is adequate for size. Flashes instincts and gets his hands in throwing lanes.
Quickness (hands/feet) 1 Excellent first-step quickness and snap anticipation. Consistently the first defender off the ball. Hands are quicker than feet, but foot quickness is more than adequate. Possesses a powerful initial punch. Lateral agility is above-average for a 340-pounder.
Toughness/Motor 3 Tough and fights hard on the inside. Continued to play hard late in the BCS title game when team was getting blown out. Gives solid effort chasing in pursuit when fresh. Endurance and weight will be a challenge throughout his career.
