On paper, you have to say that this should be Villa’s game all day long.
Aside from at Newcastle where Bruce gave them 71% possession, they’ve averaged only 6.3 shots at goal per away game this season. They’ve only scored 3 goals away, all against Watford, and even with the 71% possession at Newcastle they couldn’t score in 16 attempts on goal. Overall, including home games, they’re averaging 0.75 goals per game this season in the league.
We’ve so far averaged 1.25 goals per home game, have a goals versus expected goals rate of 103.5% at home, and have averaged 13.5 attempted per home game.
I can’t see Brighton scoring more than one goal, but they do defend well away from home. We have to take our chances and get a couple of goals.