Will we qualify for the CL?

[Brazilian Villain]

Yeah, all we have to do is not win any of our next three very difficult games and that gap is potentially gone. Let's not celebrate too hard too early.

Not gonna happen though. We won't fail to win all three of those.

Draw, draw, loss, is perfectly plausible.

[Mellin]

I'm not saying we won't, but you are talking as a matter of fact about something which can't be certain. Football's a complicated game. One injury or loss of form to a kay player and the entire balance of the team is potentially gone. It's why seasons ebb and flow.

I know we're doing well, I think we'll recruit smartly from a position of strength in January and we'll qualify, as I (and you) said in about October two years ago.

But it isn't done.

[Smirker]

I'm not saying we won't, but you are talking as a matter of fact about something which can't be certain. Football's a complicated game. One injury or loss of form to a kay player and the entire balance of the team is potentially gone. It's why seasons ebb and flow.

I know we're doing well, I think we'll recruit smartly from a position of strength in January and we'll qualify, as I (and you) said in about October two years ago.

But it isn't done.

Can't shirk the Smirk 

It isn't literally done, no. As in mathematically.

But realistically as far as I'm concerned, it's pretty much done.

[eye digress]

Of course we could get a slew of injuries that throw us off track.

But that’s no more likely to happen to us, I don’t believe, than any of our rivals for the 5th Chump’s League spot.

[Brazilian Villain]

It's not done yet, there's still a 13% chance we don't make the Top 5.

[Dave]

If I were putting money today on who the top five are going to be, their five most likely would be where my money goes.

[Monty]

It's not done yet, there's still a 13% chance we don't make the Top 5.

But what does Nate Silver say?

[Baldy]

After last weeks matches, fifth spot looking even better for English clubs:

https://www.uefa.com/nationalassociations/uefarankings/country/?year=2026

[cdbearsfan]

That's the wrong list. You need the one year average rankings, ie divided by all the clubs.

Edit: here it is:

https://bsky.app/profile/footrankings.bsky.social/post/3m7v6hiqvx32f