Our first draw at home was the ghastly 0-0 vs. Man Utd., and then the next 2 Villa Park games we drew against Bournemouth and Palace.
That's 6 extra points dropped. If you want to discount Man Utd, well, we drew with Brighton at home after Xmas as well.
This year there were expected wins vs. West Ham and Ipswich that didn't materialise; that's also another 4 points.
Really we should be 10 points better off just by winning those matches at Villa Park. Even with our less away form that would see us on 52 points and 3rd place instead of 10th