Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: Ivo Stas on May 16, 2021, 10:06:08 PM
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Maybe this belongs in the match thread or the Dean Smith thread (or the ownership thread if there is one) but this isn't really about ranting about today's dog-awful performance (a repeat of Burnley away) or throwing sticks-and-stones at the likeable Dean Smith, more about the ethics and advisability of upgrading a manager (Southampton-Adkins-Pochettino)
For the first time today, I've entertained doubts about Dean Smith. Not my own doubts (they wouldn't matter) but doubts as to whether our ambitious owners (or their man-on-the-scene Purslow) will want to upgrade the manager in the summer (having already upgraded the players and the training ground, etc). I think the problem for Smith will be finishing below Leeds, it makes it starkly obvious how much a difference (in terms of accumulating points) an elite manager like Bielsa can make.
I'm just wondering how the decision looks from a cold-blooded American/Egyptian billionaire perspective.
In the Dean Smith pros column:
Season 1: promotion
Season 2: great escape (we WERE down with four to play)
Season 3: improvement and a 7-2
Our best signings are the ones with his fingerprints on (Konsa, Watkins, etc)
Our "worst" signings are the ones with a director-of-football feel (any of the Belgian league pick ups).
He's a villain through-and-through (has to count for something)
Good man-manager
He has recovered twice from awful periods of poor form (usually post-Xmas)
Clear improvement in various young players
Ross Barkley before Xmas
Lack of an obvious elite manager alternative
Pre-Xmas form and results.
The fear that sacking him would unsettle Grealish
In the Dean Smith minus column:
The sneaking suspicion that all the success is actually down to Grealish (see 10-game winning promotion run upon his return from injury).
Tactical inflexibility
Frustrating reluctance to introduce substitutes until too late.
The feeling that opposition managers overcome us with in-game or half-time changes and we don't react with tactical counter-measures.
Ross Barkley after Xmas
(Probably most importantly) the sense that if you want to be a top club, you need a proven elite manager
Post-Xmas form and results
The fear that sticking with him and failing to improve quick enough would unsettle Grealish
Personally, my rule of thumb in regards to losing confidence in a manager is when they start talking absolute rubbish in post-match press conferences. Dean Smith always seems to talk sense and reading his post-match transcripts is actually quite a healing process for me after defeats. But I doubt the owners read the Birmingham Mail..!
Like everyone, I hope Dean Smith is our manager for the next ten years and becomes the Brummie Alex Ferguson, but I'm genuinely curious what you all think our owners will be thinking in the summer.
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A good balanced post. Nothing more than an utter guess, but Sawiris for me seems the bigger football fan of the two. I think he'd be minded to give Smith a bit more time. Edens on the other hand seems more of a the hard-nosed sports owner business bloke, so I think he'd fire Smith at the end of the season if there was somebody who was obviously a bigger name available. You also can't completely discount Purslow's voice in all this, and while it's not ultimately his decision I think he'd be in the 'stick' camp.
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Smith gets the summer and starts next season but he’s burning through the goodwill. Our post Xmas slump will have been noted and impatient Billionaire owner just don’t do frustration. Not when it involves this kind of financial outlay.
We’ve probably not come as far as we think we have.
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I think its finely balanced. He has a happy knack of getting results when he needs them so who knows he might win the next two!
He will have been set targets which may even have been revised given the pre Christmas form. That may be his undoing.
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I think he's safe for the moment, although the length of the slump has really put pressure on to start next season with a bang. If we're mid table at Christmas I can see him being given the boot.
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The OP raises some good points here for pros and cons of Smith and my view is he won’t be sacked or changed this summer.
As with all Managers it’s all about results. If he doesn’t deliver what Owners/Purslow deem acceptable he’ll be gone. Fortunately I think they would take a much more dispassionate and objective view than the fans.
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I’m pretty sure I heard Dean said they were targeting a top half finish a few weeks ago.
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We also have the experience of Craig Shakespeare and also John Terry along with Dean that's a lot of experience and knowledge . I do think his in game Management is not great and the delay in making changes is very frustrating but a lot of our downfall has been stupid mistakes.
We need a higher quality of player , unfortunately finishing 11th in the Table will not attract the type of quality we need to Grab a Euro Spot next season .
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Can you see us lifting a major trophy under Smith any time soon?
The owners will want some returns at some point.
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I said a lot on this in the match report, I think it will all come down to a time frame. DS has met everything required up til now. First promotion (maybe a season early) then solidify our position with no worries of relegation, then a top four challenge. I believe the owners have made their ambitions clear, and while everything has gone to plan so far, the first sign we are in danger of slipping backwards he will be replaced.
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Anything to be learnt from Wes Eden's (co-owned) Milwaukee Bucks basketball team's teams firing of their manager three years ago..? If you replace Giannis Antetokounmpo with Jack Grealish, I can see some parallels perhaps...
https://hashtagbasketball.com/milwaukee-bucks/content/bucks-fired-jason-kidd (https://hashtagbasketball.com/milwaukee-bucks/content/bucks-fired-jason-kidd)
Jason Kidd has been fired by the Milwaukee Bucks effective immediately. Joe Prunty is the interim head coach against the Suns tonight, but that's all we're hearing from the Bucks.
Kidd was praised for his role in the development of rising star Giannis Antetokounmpo. He was the first to experiment with him at the point guard position, making him a modern-day Magic Johnson. Kidd also received credit for Malcolm Brogdon winning Rookie of the Year as well as the development of Thon Maker.
Kidd led the Bucks to their first winning season since 2010 last season (42-40) and 2 playoff appearances (2015, 2017) that both resulted in first round exits.
Much of the criticism of Kidd is related to his actual coaching. He can be seen simply scratching his chin or holding his face instead of barking commands to the players. His defensive schemes are brutal and ignore the concept of the pass completely. His inbounds plays seem either cluttered or just entirely nonsensical and he makes questionable rotation decisions.
The firing is almost surprising. Reports suggested that Jason Kidd was well-liked by owners Wes Edens and Marc Lasry. Many fans called for his firing last year or earlier this year to no avail. Now those fans have their wish. The Bucks have yet to name a "long-term" interim head coach. As of right now, there are no candidates, and it is possible that they will wait until the summer to find a decent replacement for Kidd.
According to Chris Haynes of ESPN, Giannis Antetokounmpo was "devastated." Kidd played a role in Giannis' development as a player, and for the young superstar, his firing is a harsh lesson of NBA reality. This is a business and if you don't perform, you stand to lose your job. This Bucks team will now have to try and keep their playoff hopes alive in the midst of this developing story.
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A good balanced post. Nothing more than an utter guess, but Sawiris for me seems the bigger football fan of the two. I think he'd be minded to give Smith a bit more time. Edens on the other hand seems more of a the hard-nosed sports owner business bloke, so I think he'd fire Smith at the end of the season if there was somebody who was obviously a bigger name available. You also can't completely discount Purslow's voice in all this, and while it's not ultimately his decision I think he'd be in the 'stick' camp.
I don't think I've ever seen an interview with Sawiris, it seems to be Edens that does the talking. However, I believe the Sawiris is actually the majority owner. Probably very unfairly (and lets face it, Sawiris has been brilliant for the Villa), the only impression I have of Sawiris is a slightly worrying rumour that because he was an Arsenal fan he wanted Thierry Henry as manager after Bruce was sacked. I think you are correct though in that they would both defer to Purslow on any decision (it seemed to be Purslow who turned against Pitarch) so I guess it all depends on the relationship that Smith has with him (and Smith seems to me to be someone who forms bonds with his colleagues).
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From a financial point-of-view, chopping and changing manager's is expensive. It only makes sense if:
a) the current manager was clearly a bad choice (e.g. Venglos).
b) the current manager has clearly reached the end of the road (e.g. Lambert)
c) there is an obvious elite upgrade available (e.g. replacing Frank Lampard with Thomas Tuchel)
Smith was a good choice at the time and, I would argue, has plenty of mileage left. So that just leaves "c"...
I've heard that Bielsa is yet to re-commit to Leeds (apparently he has one-year contracts), he is clearly brilliant (although perhaps the sort of eccentric genius who would drop Grealish).
I also saw a click-bait article linking the Wolves manager (Nuno Espírito Santo) with us in the summer, although its debatable that he would be an upgrade.
Casting my mind around, I guess the obvious available elite upgrade would be Rafa Benitez. I reckon he would come too...
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Yeah that's really interesting to read Ivo, thanks for posting.
I don't follow any American sports at all and couldn't care less but either read on here or elsewhere not so long ago Wes sacked the coach of his basketball team even though he'd done a Dean Smith style job.
However in terms of odd interviews he's given in last two years he's been more talking about growing the club and changing the transfer strategy so possibly won't push for manager to be replaced in same way while he still feels the club needs to be build up and so foundations are rock solid to withstand sudden managerial departures.
Interesting to see how the dynamic develops if big decisions need to be made in next two seasons. They've done brilliantly to keep getting Jack to sign new deals in last 3 years but might find the next time they go and ask him the question he might not be as willing. Think Purslow with all his experience in the game is hugely important aswell in keeping things ticking along, important to have him considering we've had the likes of Tom Fox and Faulkner as CEOS in last decade and the difference is stark.
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Good post but I'm not sure the Leeds reference is entirely fair. Plenty of shit teams have a good first season in the top flight - look at Sheffield United. If Leeds can replicate it next season then fair enough.
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Yes a good post.
Maybe when they review the season they will look at what went wrong and what went right.
Regarding Smith the obvious weakness is in game management and you would expect that this area will be addressed in some way, which does not necessarily mean replacing him.
My guess is he will still be here next season.
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Just to say, in every sense, no to Rafa Benitez. I like him, I think he's a fine manager, but if Smith isn't what we need then by Christ Benitez isn't either.
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Great post Mr Ivo Stas.
I mentioned in some other thread that I would not be surprised if our owners are currently making discreet enquiries for a new manager. At the very least to see what alternate options are available before making a final decision. Their hand has been forced by our dismal performance over the last three months.
Rafa Benitez is definitely one worth exploring. Especially, if we could offer him an attractive transfer budget.
Deano is a decent manager but I fear does not have the pulling power or tactical nous to take us to the next level. I would prefer that he left the club at the end of this season 'with his head held high' rather than in 6 months time being harrassed out the door because his limitations wasted our next transfer budget.
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We need a period of stability and continuity. In three seasons the club has gone from bottom half of the championship to a mid-table Premier League team and got to a major final. The next step is probably the hardest as the competition is so hard. Look at Everton for example - streets ahead of us in what they've spent on the squad, an internationally recognised manager, yet only 3 places above us, we've won and drawn against them this season and they've just lost to Sheffield Utd. Or Wolves - would you now get rid of their manager because of how they have performed? I hope the owners have got their heads screwed on and realise that this is a long-term process and we are moving in the right direction, but there will be bumps along the road.
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Well, they are prepared to spend big again if this ‘guff’ I’d to be believed.
£260 million pound transfer kitty !! A quarter of a billion pounds !!
https://tbrfootball.com/aston-villa-reportedly-to-have-260m-transfer-budget-to-spend-on-new-signings/
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Well, they are prepared to spend big again if this ‘guff’ I’d to be believed.
£260 million pound transfer kitty !! A quarter of a billion pounds !!
https://tbrfootball.com/aston-villa-reportedly-to-have-260m-transfer-budget-to-spend-on-new-signings/
That's big dosh, but I wouldn't be surprised if they spend big.
Whilst other clubs may be on the defensive because of CV-19 this is the time to buy.
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Huge amounts of money if true, but that's what is needed ultimately. As sad as that is.
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Well, they are prepared to spend big again if this ‘guff’ I’d to be believed.
£260 million pound transfer kitty !! A quarter of a billion pounds !!
https://tbrfootball.com/aston-villa-reportedly-to-have-260m-transfer-budget-to-spend-on-new-signings/
I like the sound of that, mate. We definitely need 4 quality players.
Tammy will be first in.
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Every year we should get rid because he's taken us as far as he can, then every year he takes us a bit further.
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1. He got us promoted from a mid table starting position
2. He kept us up in the notoriously tricky first season after promotion
3. He has lead us to a comfortable mid table position this season
Throw in a cup final appearance and I think he has done an excellent job
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One of our billionnaires made £3bn in the first half of the year. I know it doesn't directly correlate, but it is quite funny how insanely rich they are.
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A lot will depend on what happens with Jack.
The speculation is going to be constant over the summer.
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Yep, I think Dean's pretty much hit every target, and we've improved massively season-on-season. Not going to say that this season hasn't ended disappointingly - it's been massively so - but let's not gloss over how far we've progressed. We're now a mid table Premier League side, having been a mid-table Championship side 2½ years ago.
Well, they are prepared to spend big again if this ‘guff’ I’d to be believed.
£260 million pound transfer kitty !! A quarter of a billion pounds !!
https://tbrfootball.com/aston-villa-reportedly-to-have-260m-transfer-budget-to-spend-on-new-signings/
Wow. If that's true, we'll almost certainly be the biggest spending club in Europe by a *huge* margin. You're maybe looking at 4 or 5 top end players (given a load of clubs are a bit cash strapped right now), plus enough loose change to pick up a squad player or 2.
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His main problem is how ridiculously streaky he is. We're always top or bottom of the form table, which tends to lead to the perception that he's either a genius or a fool. Had he simply done the incremental year-on-year improvement in a normal, 7th-to-13th-in-the-form-table way, we probably wouldn't have these great swoops of public opinion.
I will say for my part that, while you really cannot argue with the record, during our good phase I can't say I was often convinced that it felt sustainable, or built on solid ground. But that might just be my VIAD (Villa Instigated Anxiety Disorder).
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One of our billionnaires made £3bn in the first half of the year. I know it doesn't directly correlate, but it is quite funny how insanely rich they are.
On the one occasion when I met them, I reckon they earned in twenty minutes as much as I will in the rest of my working life.
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One of our billionnaires made £3bn in the first half of the year. I know it doesn't directly correlate, but it is quite funny how insanely rich they are.
On the one occasion when I met them, I reckon they earned in twenty minutes as much as I will in the rest of my working life.
That's mind blowing. We thought we struck lucky in 2006 and for 3 years in fairness, the level of investment was there, if not the knowhow.
But these pair are next level. If we ever have a chance of breaking into the top echelon, then it is with these 2. They are rich enough to compete.
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I had a look at the odds on the next Spurs manager, just to see what the current list of available elite managers looks like. So, with some assistance from Wikipedia and recognition that this list has a somewhat Tottenham Hotspur flavour (Parker, Mason, Rebrov, Klinsmann), this is what our billionaires will be keeping in mind...
Simone Inzaghi (9/4) - Lazio manager
Brendan Rodgers (17/2) - Leicester manager
Scott Parker (9/1) - Fulham manager
Graham Potter (10/1) - Brighton manager
Nuno Espirito Santo (14/1) - Wolves manager
Roberto Martinez (16/1) - Belgium manager
Christophe Galtier (16/1) - seems to have been out of work since leaving Saint-Étienne in 2017
Antonio Conte (16/1) - Inter Milan manager
Rafa Benitez (20/1) - recently left Dalian Professional (in China)
Ryan Mason (20/1) - Spurs care-taker manager
Ronald Koeman (20/1) - Barcelona manager
Julen Lopetegui (20/1) - Sevilla manager (and he's the guy that was dimissed by Spain just before the 2018 World Cup)
Maurizio Sarri (20/1) - out of work since winning the league with Juventus in 2020
Carlo Ancelotti (25/1) - Everton manager
Massimiliano Allegri (25/1) - out of work since winning the league with Juventus in 2019
Mauricio Pochettino (25/1) - PSG manager (presumably on the list just to troll Spurs fans!)
Erik Ten Hag (25/1) - Ajax manager (just extended his contract there)
Marcelo Bielsa (33/1) - Leeds manager
Didier Deschamps (33/1) - French manager
Steven Gerrard (33/1) - Rangers manager
Zinedine Zidane (33/1) - Real Madrid manager
Ralph Hasenhuttl (33/1) - Southampton manager
Jurgen Klinsmann (33/1) - out of work since quitting Hertha BSC in 2020
Julian Nagelsmann (33/1) - RB Leipzig manager (but heading for Bayern Munich)
Gian Piero Gasperini (33/1) - Atalanta manager
Sergei Rebrov (33/1) - Ferencvaros manager
Hansi Flick (33/1) - Bayern Munich manager (but available in the summer)
Adi Hutter (33/1) - Eintracht Frankfurt manager
Marcelino (33/1) - Athletic Bilbao
Laurent Blanc (33/1) - Al-Rayyan manager
Ralf Rangnick (33/1) - was RB Leipzig manager until 2019
Gareth Southgate (40/1) - England manager
Diego Simeone (40/1) - Atletic Madrid manager
Paulo Fonseca (40/1) - Roma manager
Niko Kovac (40/1) - Monaco manager
Slaven Bilic (40/1) - Beijing Guoan manager
Frank Lampard (40/1) - recently sacked by Chelsea
Sean Dyche (45/1) - Burnley manager
Joao Sacramento (50/1) - is or was Spurs assistance manager (to Mourinho)
Joachim Low (50/1) - Germany manager
Sergio Conceicao (50/1) - Porto manager
David Moyes (50/1) - West Ham manager
Marcelo Gallardo (50/1) - River Plate manager
Chris Wilder (50/1) - recently left Sheff Utd
Ledley King (50/1) - coaching at Spurs
Oliver Glasner (50/1) - Wolfsburg manager
Ryan Giggs (50/1) - Wales manager (by a thread)
Chris Powell (50/1) - Spurs assistant manager
Xavi Hernandez (66/1) - Al Sadd manager
Roy Keane (66/1) - TV pundit (and ex-Villa assistant manager)
Lucien Favre (66/1) - left Borussia Dortmund in 2020
Daniel Farke (66/1) - Norwich manager
Harry Redknapp (66/1) - retired?
Luiz Enrique (66/1) - Spain manager
Chris Coleman (80/1) - Hebei China Fortune manager until 2019
Jonathon Woodgate (80/1) - Bournemouth manager
Michael Carrick (80/1) - coaching at Man Utd
Dean Smith (80/1) - erm, current Aston Villa manager..!
Neil Lennon (100/1) - ex-Celtic manager
Emma Hayes (100/1) - Chelsea women's manager
Tim Sherwood (100/1) - out of work since being sacked by Villa in 2015
Alan Pardew (100/1) - technical director of CSKA Sofia..!
Eddie Howe (100/1) - out of work since Bournemouth's relegation
Mark Hughes (100/1) - out of work since a brief stint at Southampton
Derek McInnes (100/1) - recently left Aberdeen by mutual consent
Sol Campbell (100/1) - definitely on the list to troll Spurs fans..!!!
Wayne Rooney (100/1) - Derby manager
Sam Allardyce (100/1) - West Brom manager
I stopped at the 100/1 odds. Thomas Tuchel was 150/1 for the Spurs job and the idea that he'd leave Chelsea for Spurs is just fantasy stuff.
Now I have my doubts how available some of these are (Rodgers, Conte, Koeman, Ancelotti, Simeone) and suspect they are just on the list to separate gamblers from their money.
I imagine some of the international managers may be available after Euro 2020. Personally I would view the likes of Martinez, Southgate and Low with suspicion but perhaps, to a billionaire, being in charge of a national team adds a certain glamour to a candidate.
To my (would-be billionaire) mind, the serious threats to Dean Smith would be the two Italians Allegri and Sarri, the two Germans Flick and Rangnick and the Spaniard Benitez (all being available). Sarri and Benitez have slot-straight-in Premier League experience. I don't know too much about Flick and Rangnick other than that they are highly regarded in Germany (and German coaches are flavour-of-the-month these days). Plus, as a couple of outsiders (and possibly only because I often see them click-bait linked with Villa) Steven Gerrard and Sean Dyche. I don't see Dyche as an upgrade and I see Gerrard as a gamble (and someone who would treat the Villa job as a stepping stone to Liverpool). I have a suspicion that Purslow is a Gerrard fan though. I may be overlooking some red-hot foreign manager (the River Plate manager is on that list, no idea how they are doing!).
Personally, I have to say the more I look at the alternatives, the safer Dean Smith looks. Would someone like a Benitez be happy to accept a coach role without control of transfers (or agree to submit to our sign-them-young-and-develop-them strategy)? Benitez left Newcastle because he wasn't allowed to sign an aging Salomon Rondon.
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Christoph Galtier is currently leading Lille to the top of Ligue 1, Flick is going to be Germany manager after the summer, Rangnick doesn't look likely to do much fulltime management anymore due to his health. Allegri and Sarri are serious top level choices, but one has never managed in England before and the other had a decent but sometimes iffy year (and in my view has never reproduced the magic of his Napoli period - winning the scudetto with Juve was not necessarily that impressive).
As for Benitez, I think he's a very impressive manager, but if we do replace Smith it would need to be with someone who can virtually guarantee bringing Villa right to the cutting edge of attacking football coaching, positional play, planned moves etc. Benitez, for all his tactical nous, is never going to be that.
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I think Smith is safe as houses this summer but we will need an improvement in form start of next season no doubt, particularly if we spend as much as is being touted.
Out of interest, who will be deciding how this money is spent? Smith, Purslow or Lange? Is there some sort of committee?
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Every year we should get rid because he's taken us as far as he can, then every year he takes us a bit further.
Indeed. And while the year-on-year improvement continues, I think it would be a mistake to get rid of him.
Also, I'm not sure I want Villa to be "that" club. The club that sacks managers who appear to the outside world to be doing more than OK. Imagine the press we'd get for sacking a manager that got us promoted, kept us in the league, and turned us into a solid premier league team in less than three years?
Not that what the press thinks is in any way important, or what other fans think of us for that matter, but I actually quite like being proud of my club, and the way it conducts itself. I think becoming the sort of club that fires managers, even when they're making progress, would take the shine off that.
(To be clear, I could live without that shine if it was replaced by a couple of titles)
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If I was one of the owners, would I trust Smith with my millions?
I'm afraid the answer is no.
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If I was one of the owners, would I trust Smith with my millions?
I'm afraid the answer is no.
It's also a "no" from them, since Lange is the one who'll be identifying the players.
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They've been pretty clear that the transfers are a team effort, no? They all sit down, get their various priorities and ideas together and go from there. And as the OP perceptively pointed out, it's the clearly more Deano-influenced signings (Mings, Konsa, Watkins) who've made the most obviously positive impact.
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If I was one of the owners, would I trust Smith with my millions?
I'm afraid the answer is no.
It's also a "no" from them, since Lange is the one who'll be identifying the players.
So Smith will have no input at all?
Nah.
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They've been pretty clear that the transfers are a team effort, no? They all sit down, get their various priorities and ideas together and go from there. And as the OP perceptively pointed out, it's the clearly more Deano-influenced signings (Mings, Konsa, Watkins) who've made the most obviously positive impact.
Quite. We're taking on youngsters too, (Barry at £1m wasn't, at this point, a snip) and that won't be Smith, that's a discussion with the Academy team.
I think we're getting our shit together, most of the investment is paying off as we're improving.
Grealish being out, and Barkley being injured and out of form are the main factors, in my view, of us not managing to continue in the same vein as we started. That and the fact we were clearly punching above our weight too.
I'd be happy with overall progress if I was the owner, and also I'd realise that with more investment the performances under this manager could be fantastic. Add in the quality of the U18 and U23 set-up and we're looking good for the future.
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Christoph Galtier is currently leading Lille to the top of Ligue 1, Flick is going to be Germany manager after the summer, Rangnick doesn't look likely to do much fulltime management anymore due to his health. Allegri and Sarri are serious top level choices, but one has never managed in England before and the other had a decent but sometimes iffy year (and in my view has never reproduced the magic of his Napoli period - winning the scudetto with Juve was not necessarily that impressive).
Rumour has it that Lille expect Galtier to leave this summer, with Laurent Blanc his mooted replacement.
They also have financial problems - they've been under new ownership since January - and apparently even if they win the title, they will have to tighten the purse strings next season.
Being sued for 19 million euros by Bielsa for wrongful dismissal won't help, either.
Incidentally, we should look at Luis Campos for a DoF position of some description. Currently out of work I think, but he has essentially built two title-winning teams, at Monaco and potentially Lille.
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Just to say, in every sense, no to Rafa Benitez. I like him, I think he's a fine manager, but if Smith isn't what we need then by Christ Benitez isn't either.
He'll never manage us while Purslow is here, no love lost between the two at Liverpool.
Wouldn't shock me if he ends up at Spurs if some more of their top targets turn them down as the summer goes on.
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If I was one of the owners, would I trust Smith with my millions?
I'm afraid the answer is no.
It's also a "no" from them, since Lange is the one who'll be identifying the players.
So Smith will have no input at all?
Nah.
Having an input isn't the same as being the man solely responsible for the allocating of millions of pounds.
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If I was one of the owners, would I trust Smith with my millions?
I'm afraid the answer is no.
It's also a "no" from them, since Lange is the one who'll be identifying the players.
I find it hard to believe Lange last summer put all the figures through the database and found the best pound for pound value striker in world football was Ollie Watkins.
Given DS managed him for two years at Brentford that was obviously a DS signing and really been a great success. So DS can say to the club, I trusted you with 30m spent on Wesley and Samatta but sometimes managers know something about players and Watkins has been different level compared to those two combined for the same amount.
So I suspect he'll have some say in the type of players we go after, likes of Rico Henry (if Brentford don't go up) and Dwight McNeill feel like types he'd want and then he'll trust the club to come up with real match winner from europe from all the data.
Interesting when we signed Engels DS made a big thing after desperately wanting to sign him for Brentford. Plays him for first two months of 19/20 then quickly discards him and we don't see him for a whole year so sometimes even manager picks can go a bit wrong.
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Christoph Galtier is currently leading Lille to the top of Ligue 1, Flick is going to be Germany manager after the summer, Rangnick doesn't look likely to do much fulltime management anymore due to his health. Allegri and Sarri are serious top level choices, but one has never managed in England before and the other had a decent but sometimes iffy year (and in my view has never reproduced the magic of his Napoli period - winning the scudetto with Juve was not necessarily that impressive).
Rumour has it that Lille expect Galtier to leave this summer, with Laurent Blanc his mooted replacement.
They also have financial problems - they've been under new ownership since January - and apparently even if they win the title, they will have to tighten the purse strings next season.
Being sued for 19 million euros by Bielsa for wrongful dismissal won't help, either.
Incidentally, we should look at Luis Campos for a DoF position of some description. Currently out of work I think, but he has essentially built two title-winning teams, at Monaco and potentially Lille.
Galtier is going to OGC Nice apparently, going to double his salary. I assume Brian Green has started a crowdfund there (wink).
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They've told Jack what their ambitions are and Jack was satisfied enough to sign a new contract. I expect Dean Smith has also been told and believes he can deliver it.
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If I was one of the owners, would I trust Smith with my millions?
I'm afraid the answer is no.
I often see quotes like this, and had a chat with a mate about it last week. Even taking into account the fact that there is a whole team working on our transfer strategy now, I honestly don't see how any of us could say we wouldn't trust Smith with the money any more than another manager we could get in- the signings we've made since he was appointed are light years ahead of anything we've done since probably Sir Brian was in charge.
Go through the signings he's made and I think the business is really quite impressive:
Heaton - About £8 million for an England international in our first season back. A position we had to improve in, unlucky to get injured as otherwise would have more than justified the fee.
Martinez - £20 million, would be looking at 2.5-3 times that fee now
Targett - struggled last season, but a revelation for most of this season. Worth at least £10 million more than we paid
Cash - Great first season at top-level. A bit rash at times, but with age and experience will improve, and certainly worth more than we paid at this point.
Mings - Getting in on loan was one of the key factors in promotion. Fee was high, but would expect a minimum of £40 million+ if sold
Konsa - solid-gold bargain. £11 million sounded like a lot at the time, would attract 3/4 times that amount now.
Luiz - Off the boil recently, but a 22 year old Brazillian international would again attract more than we paid for him if sold (buy-back arrangements notwithstanding)
El Ghazi - Already here, but converting loan to permanent was sensible business. Would expect to make a profit if sold.
Trezeguet - Again not a world-beater, but would expect a small profit if moved on.
Traore & Sanson - Jury remains out, but with a solid pre-season behind both and given their respective ages I don't think it's unreasonable to expect better performances next season.
Wesley - The one really questionable signing, but was showing signs of promise when hit by a terrible injury. Unclear whether he will be able to get to the required level now, but deserves a chance next season.
Watkins - Another one whose fee looked high at the time, but probably worth getting on for double what we paid already.
Add in to the above the several squad-filler type signings we've had to make (e.g. Hause, Engels) and I still think you wouldn't lose money on any of them.
I know this isn't the way most of us would like to look at things, but it's something I keep coming back to - look at where we have been in the last 10 years. The amount of money we wasted (even under O'Neill and Lerner) is not sustainable for any club, and less than 3 years ago could have seen us destroyed.
In a way the thought of having £250 million for any manager to spend scares me - we finally seem to have learned our lesson that the way we build has to be done with a solid foundation of young, upwardly mobile players. Going on a massive splurge this summer could unbalance all of that, so I'd much rather carry on doing what we have been and picking up players that will improve us over time. It might take longer, but it doesn't mortgage our entire future if the owners suddenly decide to plug the plug again, and will also mean that our Academy prospects also get a look-in when they are ready to progress.
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If I was one of the owners, would I trust Smith with my millions?
I'm afraid the answer is no.
I often see quotes like this, and had a chat with a mate about it last week. Even taking into account the fact that there is a whole team working on our transfer strategy now, I honestly don't see how any of us could say we wouldn't trust Smith with the money any more than another manager we could get in- the signings we've made since he was appointed are light years ahead of anything we've done since probably Sir Brian was in charge.
Go through the signings he's made and I think the business is really quite impressive:
Heaton - About £8 million for an England international in our first season back. A position we had to improve in, unlucky to get injured as otherwise would have more than justified the fee.
Martinez - £20 million, would be looking at 2.5-3 times that fee now
Targett - struggled last season, but a revelation for most of this season. Worth at least £10 million more than we paid
Cash - Great first season at top-level. A bit rash at times, but with age and experience will improve, and certainly worth more than we paid at this point.
Mings - Getting in on loan was one of the key factors in promotion. Fee was high, but would expect a minimum of £40 million+ if sold
Konsa - solid-gold bargain. £11 million sounded like a lot at the time, would attract 3/4 times that amount now.
Luiz - Off the boil recently, but a 22 year old Brazillian international would again attract more than we paid for him if sold (buy-back arrangements notwithstanding)
El Ghazi - Already here, but converting loan to permanent was sensible business. Would expect to make a profit if sold.
Trezeguet - Again not a world-beater, but would expect a small profit if moved on.
Traore & Sanson - Jury remains out, but with a solid pre-season behind both and given their respective ages I don't think it's unreasonable to expect better performances next season.
Wesley - The one really questionable signing, but was showing signs of promise when hit by a terrible injury. Unclear whether he will be able to get to the required level now, but deserves a chance next season.
Watkins - Another one whose fee looked high at the time, but probably worth getting on for double what we paid already.
Add in to the above the several squad-filler type signings we've had to make (e.g. Hause, Engels) and I still think you wouldn't lose money on any of them.
I know this isn't the way most of us would like to look at things, but it's something I keep coming back to - look at where we have been in the last 10 years. The amount of money we wasted (even under O'Neill and Lerner) is not sustainable for any club, and less than 3 years ago could have seen us destroyed.
In a way the thought of having £250 million for any manager to spend scares me - we finally seem to have learned our lesson that the way we build has to be done with a solid foundation of young, upwardly mobile players. Going on a massive splurge this summer could unbalance all of that, so I'd much rather carry on doing what we have been and picking up players that will improve us over time. It might take longer, but it doesn't mortgage our entire future if the owners suddenly decide to plug the plug again, and will also mean that our Academy prospects also get a look-in when they are ready to progress.
I think that's a pretty accurate assessment Pat and agree that a massive splurge could unsettle us. However, we do need at least 3 quality signings if we can get them. Two for the middle of the park are a must.
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He'll have this summer, be told what the expectations are, but also be asked what further support he might need to achieve them – that's the difference that I think sets our owners apart. They're not just trigger happy; they know that it's a team of people that makes success happen – hence bringing in Shakespeare this year. Smith might decide that he wants different people around him. And he'll have until Christmas to show that we're making good on that progress. But, if we're not, Smith will know that he will be hooked – if he is, I'd hope that there's enough system in place for a new manager to evolve the current squad and set-up, rather than tear it all up and start again. One of the biggest frustrations of the last ten years is that lack of long-term planning – something teams like Leicester have shown is so important (and the likes of Swansea and Brentford lower down the list).
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If I was one of the owners, would I trust Smith with my millions?
I'm afraid the answer is no.
I often see quotes like this, and had a chat with a mate about it last week. Even taking into account the fact that there is a whole team working on our transfer strategy now, I honestly don't see how any of us could say we wouldn't trust Smith with the money any more than another manager we could get in- the signings we've made since he was appointed are light years ahead of anything we've done since probably Sir Brian was in charge.
Go through the signings he's made and I think the business is really quite impressive:
Heaton - About £8 million for an England international in our first season back. A position we had to improve in, unlucky to get injured as otherwise would have more than justified the fee.
Martinez - £20 million, would be looking at 2.5-3 times that fee now
Targett - struggled last season, but a revelation for most of this season. Worth at least £10 million more than we paid
Cash - Great first season at top-level. A bit rash at times, but with age and experience will improve, and certainly worth more than we paid at this point.
Mings - Getting in on loan was one of the key factors in promotion. Fee was high, but would expect a minimum of £40 million+ if sold
Konsa - solid-gold bargain. £11 million sounded like a lot at the time, would attract 3/4 times that amount now.
Luiz - Off the boil recently, but a 22 year old Brazillian international would again attract more than we paid for him if sold (buy-back arrangements notwithstanding)
El Ghazi - Already here, but converting loan to permanent was sensible business. Would expect to make a profit if sold.
Trezeguet - Again not a world-beater, but would expect a small profit if moved on.
Traore & Sanson - Jury remains out, but with a solid pre-season behind both and given their respective ages I don't think it's unreasonable to expect better performances next season.
Wesley - The one really questionable signing, but was showing signs of promise when hit by a terrible injury. Unclear whether he will be able to get to the required level now, but deserves a chance next season.
Watkins - Another one whose fee looked high at the time, but probably worth getting on for double what we paid already.
Add in to the above the several squad-filler type signings we've had to make (e.g. Hause, Engels) and I still think you wouldn't lose money on any of them.
I know this isn't the way most of us would like to look at things, but it's something I keep coming back to - look at where we have been in the last 10 years. The amount of money we wasted (even under O'Neill and Lerner) is not sustainable for any club, and less than 3 years ago could have seen us destroyed.
In a way the thought of having £250 million for any manager to spend scares me - we finally seem to have learned our lesson that the way we build has to be done with a solid foundation of young, upwardly mobile players. Going on a massive splurge this summer could unbalance all of that, so I'd much rather carry on doing what we have been and picking up players that will improve us over time. It might take longer, but it doesn't mortgage our entire future if the owners suddenly decide to plug the plug again, and will also mean that our Academy prospects also get a look-in when they are ready to progress.
An excellent post Pat.
The other thing to add is Purslow, I think is hugely important in all of this. Do any one of us really think the owners had a scooby doo who Dean Smith was when they took over the club and decided fairly soon after to give the boot to Bruce.
Thierry Henry’s name was being bandied about and that seems like the kind of star name big billionaire owners would be attracted to. Whether Henry turned us down or not, the fact that we went from that link, to the far more sensible solution of Great Barr’s Dean Smith, has to be a Purslow decision.
If the owners want rid, which at some stage now or in 5 years time they will, they’ll tell Purslow, but I reckon whilst we’re steadily progressing Purslow is invested in Smith and will continue to support him.
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An excellent post Pat.
The other thing to add is Purslow, I think is hugely important in all of this. Do any one of us really think the owners had a scooby doo who Dean Smith was when they took over the club and decided fairly soon after to give the boot to Bruce.
Thierry Henry’s name was being bandied about and that seems like the kind of star name big billionaire owners would be attracted to. Whether Henry turned us down or not, the fact that we went from that link, to the far more sensible solution of Great Barr’s Dean Smith, has to be a Purslow decision.
If the owners want rid, which at some stage now or in 5 years time they will, they’ll tell Purslow, but I reckon whilst we’re steadily progressing Purslow is infested in Smith and will continue to support him.
It'll never catch on.