Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: eric woolban woolban on January 18, 2020, 10:29:50 PM
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15 games to go so 45 points to play for
Just composed a useless spreadsheet of the remaining games for all teams at the bottom, Brighton downwards.
Focusing on position of the team you're playing in the table (currently), which is doubled for away games (I know, I know) scores on the doors are follows:
Norwich - 205
Bournemouth - 164
Villa - 216
Watford - 244
West Ham - 210 (16 games)
Burnley - 240 (16 games)
Brighton - 254
The higher the score the teams you are facing will be lower down. So Norwich, Bournemouth, ourselves and West Ham have the toughest run in.
Next 4 games
Norwich (17)- Spurs (a), Newcastle(a), Liverpool (H), Wolves (a)
Bournemouth (20) - Brighton (H), Villa (H), Sheff U (a), Burnley (a)
VILLA (22)- Watford (H), Bournemouth (a), Spurs (H), Saints (a)
Watford (23) - Villa (a), Everton (H) Brighton (a) Man U (a)
West Ham(23 + game in hand albeit Liverpool) - Leicester (a), Liverpool (H), Brighton (H), Man C (a)
Burnley (24 + a game in hand)- Leicester (H), Man U (a), Arsenal (H), Saints (a)
Brighton (25) - Bournemouth (a), West Ham (a), Watford (H), Sheff U (a)
We've got to aim to be above Burnley after the Southampton game on the 22nd, with two points to gain on them. Though they'll have played 5 games in this same time period (5th game Bournemouth at home)
Going to be tough but I think we can just get over the line if we get a striker in who hits the ground running.
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(https://media1.giphy.com/media/1nI7D2wdhHAys/giphy.gif)
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What the actual fuck is this?
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Lol.
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I think it's ace Eric, I love me some numberwang.
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If we get 216 points we might just stay up.
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Where’s Dusty Bin?
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It was to prove how hard each teams run in is. The higher the score the less teams you're facing at the top.
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Can we expect updates, given that projected points are based upon current league position, and that these are likely to prove fluid given the propensity for outlying results of late, Citeh today as an example?
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Can we expect updates, given that projected points are based upon current league position, and that these are likely to prove fluid given the propensity for outlying results of late, Citeh today as an example?
Pass the baton to Skillz we will take this and literally run with it.
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We don't need to be above Burnley, we need to be above Norwich,Bournemouth and Watford. Which we will be if we win Tuesday
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Eric mate am I thick as pigshit or is there some secret maths? You are making my hangover hurt more 😳
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So, in essence:
(https://i.ibb.co/zng74qC/IMG-20200114-WA0000.jpg)
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Watch don’t order.
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Watch don’t order.
It's a steep learning curve.
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So to summarise Eric, the mathematician in you, are we well and truly fooked?
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He's allocated Liverpool 1 point, Man City 2 points and Norwich 20 points etc. So Liverpool away is 2 points (1st in the table, so 1 point, doubled for away games) and Watford at home is 17 points (17th in the table and at home). Do the same for the teams around us, and there you are.
Very good work, although I'd have reversed the points, and had 20 for Liverpool in 1st and 1 for Norwich in 2nd, but that's just window dressing. Probably doubling the points for away games is excessively weighting the difficulty in those games, but given our record, possibly not!
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How difficult the run-in is depends on the results in the next 2 games against teams around us. Imo we need 2 wins (6 points) from watford and Bournemouth. Achieve this and we'll be well placed on 28 points to kick on with 13 games remaining. We need some runs of consecutive wins and/or an unbeaten run of form. We also need some strikers ffs!
Lose the next 2 or only get 1 point and the game may well be up.
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Thread of the month.
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Just concentrate on our own games. Those around us dropping points will be a bonus but if we can win 5 out of 15 (along with a couple of draws) then we should be safe. 6 wins would almost certainly guarantee it.
It's in our own hands with a hell of a long way to go.
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Confused Bournemouth 164.
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Is it a part of the body?
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Is it Al Pacino time yet?
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Villa can stay up by just winning 3 more matches and having 5 or 6 or 7 draws.
That gives 36-38pts total which is enough to survive
That means it's 14-16 points in 15 matches
It might not be enough to survive this season. It could go higher, unless 3 from Brighton, Bournemouth, Burnley, West Ham & Watford only win 3 as well. I'd aim for 40-42 points with anything under being a bonus.
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Villa can stay up by just winning 3 more matches and having 5 or 6 or 7 draws.
That gives 36-38pts total which is enough to survive
That means it's 14-16 points in 15 matches
10 wins will normally see a side stay up. But with our lack of draws thus far, that might need it to be 11 in our case.
Looked at Bournemouth's fixtures a few weeks back and they have an easier run in than us. Ditto Burnleh.
Was hoping Newcastle might be dragged back into it but that looks unlikely now.
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7 wins and 15 draws Is fine
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Yes but for once in our lives Villa don't "do" draws anymore, yesterday being an anomalous example.
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I reckon someone could go down with 40 points or more this year, it's the most competitive PL since Spammers went down with 42 points. Apart from Liverpool who don;t lose to anyone, and us who shit the bed playing anyone above 10th, it seems any team can beat any other on any given day.
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I'd imagine we have the hardest run in. After our next two games we'll have played everyone in the bottom 7 twice, bar West Ham and ourselves. Could do with being in a stronger position after Bournemouth. On the flip side we've played Man City twice too.
Time to fix up (I think we will).
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I'd imagine we have the hardest run in. After our next two games we'll have played everyone in the bottom 7 twice, bar West Ham and ourselves. Could do with being in a stronger position after Bournemouth. On the flip side we've played Man City twice too.
Time to fix up (I think we will).
The strange thing about the league being so tight this year, is that the "bottom 7" as you describe aren't really cut away from the rest. Add three points to the team at the top of that seven and you leap five places. Add another three and you're one point outside Europe.
The way it's going someone could get relegated on 40-something points, and get into Europe in the low 50's.
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Are you allowed to publish the fixtures if you do so in Pro Evolution way? So our next three fixtures are Hertfordshire Yellows, Dorset Red and North London Bellends.
Actually, probably need to narrow that last one down.
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I'd imagine we have the hardest run in. After our next two games we'll have played everyone in the bottom 7 twice, bar West Ham and ourselves.
You could also argue that during the "run in" the bottom 7 is harder than the mid-table teams. The mid-table teams typically have nothing to play for; not going to be relegated, not going to make Europe.
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Just something I spotted whilst looking at the league table. You're both right about the bottom 7 though. We caught Southampton and Watford at a bad time, for example. I'd have much rather played, say...Newcastle and Spurs at that stage.
But that's obviously just the nature of the fixture list. It works for and against you. Anyway, I'm rambling. Just fucking stay up please Villa.
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Currently on 22 points.
It's hard to see where the salvation points are coming from at this point:
Bournemouth v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Tottenham
Southampton v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Sheff Utd
Leicester v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Chelsea
Newcastle v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Wolves
Liverpool v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Man Utd
Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
Everton v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Arsenal
West Ham v Aston Villa
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18 points isn't unrealistic from that lot.
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16 days on, and I think we need an update on this. I think being above Burnley post-Saints will elicit one of the biggest sighs of relief ever heard!
Over to you in the lab...
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The fixtures look tough, but they were always going to.
It's impossible to pick and chose fixtures, we'll lose some we should win (Bournemouth) but will also pick up some unexpected results here and there.
It will be nip and tuck, but if Samagoal continues to do well and with McGinn to return we've got as good a chance as any (barring a disaterous injury).
UTFV.
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Currently on 22 points.
It's hard to see where the salvation points are coming from at this point:
Bournemouth v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Tottenham
Southampton v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Sheff Utd
Leicester v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Chelsea
Newcastle v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Wolves
Liverpool v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Man Utd
Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
Everton v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Arsenal
West Ham v Aston Villa
You didn't have long to wait for 3.
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It is a bit of a horror show run in.
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Arsenal at home nailed on for 3 points for us, unless we're already safe.
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Currently on 22 points.
It's hard to see where the salvation points are coming from at this point:
Bournemouth v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Tottenham
Southampton v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Sheff Utd #
Leicester v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Chelsea
Newcastle v Aston Villa #
Aston Villa v Wolves
Liverpool v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Man Utd #
Aston Villa v Crystal Palace #
Everton v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Arsenal #
West Ham v Aston Villa #
We just lost the easiest of those fixtures.
The rest look pretty horrible.
We have only beaten 2 of those in the league this season.
# = best chance of points.
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Currently on 22 points.
It's hard to see where the salvation points are coming from at this point:
Bournemouth v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Tottenham
Southampton v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Sheff Utd #
Leicester v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Chelsea
Newcastle v Aston Villa #
Aston Villa v Wolves
Liverpool v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Man Utd #
Aston Villa v Crystal Palace #
Everton v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Arsenal #
West Ham v Aston Villa #
We just lost the easiest of those fixtures.
The rest look pretty horrible.
We have only beaten 2 of those in the league this season.
# = best chance of points.
Southampton A, and a draw against Wolves at home aswell are possibles
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Being pessimistic I can see wins against Crystal Palace and West Ham, then draws against Sheffield, Newcastle and Arsenal and Maybe Man U which gives us +10 points, which probably won't be enough. We have to hope for the rest to be equally pants.
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Being pessimistic I can see wins against Crystal Palace and West Ham, then draws against Sheffield, Newcastle and Arsenal and Maybe Man U which gives us +10 points, which probably won't be enough. We have to hope for the rest to be equally pants.
I think that we can win at Newcastle (we have to) and a win against ManU and maybe Everton.
The failure to break down Bournmouth was a major set back, but they defended with "the bus" ( as anyone would, apart from West Ham in their last game :D )
The only games where I think we are unlikely to get anything are Liverpool, S'ham, Leicester and Wolves.
We could win 3 or 4 and draw 6 that gives 15 or 18 ish
that would take use to the high 30's
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Those 3 home games of Man United, Palace and Arsenal ought to be what sees us safe. We conspired to take 1 point instead of 7 from the away fixtures, at home I'd fancy us while they're dossing around in mid-table.
Wouldn't surprise me if we've still won more games than Arsenal by the time we play them.
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I can see us picking up a few exciting victories, I don’t think it will be enough though.
Unless Smith can make us hard to beat, and I don’t think he knows how to do that.
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This feels more nerve wracking than the scares of the Lambert years or is it just me?
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Not for me, as I felt we were a lot poorer under Lambert. I'm confident we'll be ok.
My main worry is it being a bit moody at West Ham if they're relegated.
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If we can get the defence in half decent shape I think we'll be ok. We starting showing signs that the switch to 3 at the back was helping in that regard but the Bournemouth game worried me again.
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This feels more nerve wracking than the scares of the Lambert years or is it just me?
Until the last season he had Benteke to get us out of jail.
Now we have a massive over reliance on a Jack, our problem now is that we need to score at least 2 to win a game.
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If we can get the defence in half decent shape I think we'll be ok. We starting showing signs that the switch to 3 at the back was helping in that regard but the Bournemouth game worried me again.
It was a poor team performance overall, but I don’t think the system contributed massively to the goals conceded. I think both were poorly defended counters (I think we may have given both free kicks away from our own corners initially) and then the free kicks themselves were poorly defended.
I think overall the switch to three at the back has been positive and generally made us more solid.
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This feels more nerve wracking than the scares of the Lambert years or is it just me?
Until the last season he had Benteke to get us out of jail.
Now we have a massive over reliance on a Jack, our problem now is that we need to score at least 2 to win a game.
I don’t disagree and it’s clearly an issue but I do think this is true of quite a lot of teams though. Only seven clubs have keep clean sheets in more than 25% of their games - and one of them is below us!
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I put the all the remaining games for Villa, B'Mouth, Watford, WHam and Brighton in to my "calculator" ( my best guess of results)
I get WHam and B'Mouth finishing on 35 (2W 6D 5L) and 36 (1W 6D 6L)
Villa 41 (3W 7D 3L) Watford 40 (4W 5D 4L) & Brighton 40 (3W 5D 5L)
It was highly scientific! :D and it could come down to the final game at Wham
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Sat Feb 22 Southampton A
Sat Feb 29 Sheffield United H
Mon Mar 9 Leicester A
Sat Mar 14 Chelsea H
Sat Mar 21 Newcastle A
Sat Apr 4 Wolves H
Sat Apr 11 Liverpool A
Sat Apr 18 Manchester United H
Sat Apr 25 Crystal Palace H
Sat May 2 Everton A
Sat May 9 Arsenal H
Sun May 17 West Ham A
Still think the home games against Sheff U and Palace represent the most likely route to three points between now and the end of the season.
Hopefully Soton's recent revival is over and we can get something there. Four points from the next two will go a long way to rebuilding the shattered confidence after tossing away yet another game.
Aside from that, it's a horrid run-in and we're hoping for teams to have an off day. Or think that we're so piss-poor they start resting players. Lull them into a false sense of security and all that.
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The Sheffield United game will be re-arranged.
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Ah yeah, of course.
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I don’t see that run in as all that bad, maybe it’s just my claret specs, but I honestly think there are enough points in those games for us to be safe and avoid a dreaded winner takes all affair at the Pornodome. That said, we need to be winning three home games and hope that we get one on the road (plus a few things called ‘draws’, but I think we’ll do it.
A draw or even a win next Saturday would do us the world of good. Keep the faith!
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The Sheffield United game will be re-arranged.
Interesting when that fixture gets placed.
Normally I would be o.k with it being April (perhaps inbetween Man. United and Palace to give us three homes in a week) but if Newcastle gets postponed we'd have a run of Southampton-Leicester-Chelsea-Wolves-Liverpool so perhaps it needs to go in there to break a potential losing sequence.
They're doing very very well but ultimately it's a fixture we'd have looked at in August as a needed three points and needs to be the same now.
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I think we can still get 5 wins out of that lot. We aren't cut adrift, there were glimmers of hope from today, and regardless of the manner of the defeat (losing in the last minute is always a kick in the bollox) we can still stay up. A couple of those teams will be on the beach by the time we play them too. I can see Sheff Utd seriously blowing up once they are mathematically safe.
If we go down, it will have been entirely self inflicted. Its still very much in our hands.
This is Villa though, so I bet this is going down to the last day with a winner takes all against the kit stealers. How will my poor old heart cope. The playoff finals were bad enough.
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I think we can still get 5 wins out of that lot. We aren't cut adrift, there were glimmers of hope from today, and regardless of the manner of the defeat (losing in the last minute is always a kick in the bollox) we can still stay up. A couple of those teams will be on the beach by the time we play them too. I can see Sheff Utd seriously blowing up once they are mathematically safe.
If we go down, it will have been entirely self inflicted. Its still very much in our hands.
This is Villa though, so I bet this is going down to the last day with a winner takes all against the kit stealers. How will my poor old heart cope. The playoff finals were bad enough.
I’m an optimistic, but this blows me out of the water 😬 looking at those games, I’d hope we’d get 3 wins (possibly Southampton, Newcastle away, palace home) and 4 or 5 draws (Chelsea, Man U, arsenal home, West Ham away).
All this Would need a few trends bucked, such as away wins and actual drawing games, but some things will need to change if we’re to stay up. Who knows what’ll happen though
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Get that Sheffield united game rearranged for april when mcginns back. I think they are beatable once mcginn returns
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Get that Sheffield united game rearranged for april when mcginns back. I think they are beatable once mcginn returns
Quite a few on here mentioning sheff Utd, but the only teams that have lost less games than them are Liverpool, Man City, Leicester. Wolves and Arsenal (who have drawn loads). Unless they do have an end of season nose dive in form, I fancy us more to pick up something against Man Utd and palace at home, possibly a draw against arsenal and chelsea
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I don’t see how any one can predict any result except the obvious.
Almost Every game will be a lottery and we will give and create chances because it’s the way we play.
We are at a bigger disadvantage against teams prepared to sit in and counter.
Expect the same tactics displayed by all away teams and some at home because it works against us.
Smith does not believe in the idea that you have to be hard to beat to win.
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What's the obvious?
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What's the obvious?
Liverpool away.
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I think all forecasts and predictions need to be classified pre/post McGinn. Him coming back could really make a huge difference.
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A very loose way of looking at this in terms of form is to look at what we gained from the past 11 games, to try to determine stats wise, how this may impact upon us in terms of where we end and with what, of course there are a number of factors that come into play, regardless of what we do we still manage to stay up, or indeed get relegated, example, everybody under us lose every one of there remaining games, we stay up regardless, that said as it stands from our own form, taken from the past 11 games we have won 3 games and one draw giving us 36 points, if that was to play out the same way, is 36 points enough, in my opinion not the way the bottom of the Premiership is shaping up this season, I think to get 17th place you will need at least 38 points, in which case all kinds of things are now starting to work against us and that little lack of concentration from Engles yesterday could well determine what league we are in next season. That said, massive massive if's and but's in all these kind of predictions.
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I really see us struggling to get anything from Liverpool, Everton, Leicester and Newcastle away .....Arsenal, Chelsea,Man U at home
Leaving us having to struggle for points against Sheffield U, Palace, Saints ,Wolves and West Ham
It's looking a tough ask and may well go to the last game
I can't help but think that the two games against Bournemouth will be a contributory factor to our fate
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A very loose way of looking at this in terms of form is to look at what we gained from the past 11 games, to try to determine stats wise, how this may impact upon us in terms of where we end and with what, of course there are a number of factors that come into play, regardless of what we do we still manage to stay up, or indeed get relegated, example, everybody under us lose every one of there remaining games, we stay up regardless, that said as it stands from our own form, taken from the past 11 games we have won 3 games and one draw giving us 36 points, if that was to play out the same way, is 36 points enough, in my opinion not the way the bottom of the Premiership is shaping up this season, I think to get 17th place you will need at least 38 points, in which case all kinds of things are now starting to work against us and that little lack of concentration from Engles yesterday could well determine what league we are in next season. That said, massive massive if's and but's in all these kind of predictions.
That's true, but we also have 3 wins and a draw from our last 8 games (instead of 10). THAT form and average point accumulation over the next 12 games gets us to 40 points.
At this stage, we're capable of winning and losing just about every game still to play (except perhaps Liverpool). I still think we can get to 40 points, I'm just not yet 100% convinced it will be enough this year.
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A very loose way of looking at this in terms of form is to look at what we gained from the past 11 games, to try to determine stats wise, how this may impact upon us in terms of where we end and with what, of course there are a number of factors that come into play, regardless of what we do we still manage to stay up, or indeed get relegated, example, everybody under us lose every one of there remaining games, we stay up regardless, that said as it stands from our own form, taken from the past 11 games we have won 3 games and one draw giving us 36 points, if that was to play out the same way, is 36 points enough, in my opinion not the way the bottom of the Premiership is shaping up this season, I think to get 17th place you will need at least 38 points, in which case all kinds of things are now starting to work against us and that little lack of concentration from Engles yesterday could well determine what league we are in next season. That said, massive massive if's and but's in all these kind of predictions.
That's true, but we also have 3 wins and a draw from our last 8 games (instead of 10). THAT form and average point accumulation over the next 12 games gets us to 40 points.
At this stage, we're capable of winning and losing just about every game still to play (except perhaps Liverpool). I still think we can get to 40 points, I'm just not yet 100% convinced it will be enough this year.
Indeed, technically its going to be that close, we must therefore be at a point whereby losing another point, could spell disaster, we are at that stage, Southampton is a huge game. Its tight and getting tighter by the minute.
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Chelsea at home. Discuss. How to play that one I wonder?
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Its damn tempting to just say 'Go for it' but can we afford it, or, are we better playing for the point and hoping for the 3.
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Its damn tempting to just say 'Go for it' but can we afford it, or, are we better playing for the point and hoping for the 3.
I wish our manager was more pragmatic. I wish he realised that draws are exactly what we need to be grinding out.
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Not sure why some of you think 40 points may not be enough? 37/38 will be enough. Look at the table teams in relegation spots have less points than games played at 26. It’s not going to change dramatically over the last 12.
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Its damn tempting to just say 'Go for it' but can we afford it, or, are we better playing for the point and hoping for the 3.
I wish our manager was more pragmatic. I wish he realised that draws are exactly what we need to be grinding out.
We've had quite enough of them, thanks.
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Bookies seem to think we'll drop, 2nd favourites now behind Norwich.
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Southampton away is about as must win as you can get. The 4 teams around us all have tricky fixtures on paper so with the right results we could leapfrog Brighton into 15th on 28pts.
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Win Saturday and I'll start to believe again, we simply have to put Sunday behind us.
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I think all forecasts and predictions need to be classified pre/post McGinn. Him coming back could really make a huge difference.
I'm a bit worried about all this expectation being placed on him.
Yes it will be good to have him back as an option but we've seen many times it take a good six-eight weeks for players to totally get back up to speed after serious injury.
I don't expect him to turn into Drinkwater level fitness on his return but if he's back mid March I don't think he'll be at peak fitness until start of May when they'll only be three games left.
Still the sort who'll pop up with a vital goal or two in the run in.
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Man saturdays game is huge. Absolutely massive. If we lose that it would be a bigger disaster than sunday.
It simply is must not lose. Time to drol this three at the back its shit and we concede goals for fun.
Go two at the back and stick a extra man in midfield.we look better that way. Drop hause and engels for mings and conor. Also take bloody drinkwater out!
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I don’t see how any one can predict any result except the obvious.
Almost Every game will be a lottery and we will give and create chances because it’s the way we play.
We are at a bigger disadvantage against teams prepared to sit in and counter.
Expect the same tactics displayed by all away teams and some at home because it works against us.
Smith does not believe in the idea that you have to be hard to beat to win.
I can’t predict very well otherwise I’d be incredibly wealthy which I’m not. However it’s part of the craic of being a football supporter, we’ll for me.
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Not sure why some of you think 40 points may not be enough? 37/38 will be enough. Look at the table teams in relegation spots have less points than games played at 26. It’s not going to change dramatically over the last 12.
Completely agree with this. While referring to my other point above about predictions, I think 36/37/38 may be enough, especially when you look at the run ins of not only us, but Brighton, West Ham and Bournemouth. Predicting that Norwich are already down 😬
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I think all forecasts and predictions need to be classified pre/post McGinn. Him coming back could really make a huge difference.
I'm a bit worried about all this expectation being placed on him.
Yes it will be good to have him back as an option but we've seen many times it take a good six-eight weeks for players to totally get back up to speed after serious injury.
I don't expect him to turn into Drinkwater level fitness on his return but if he's back mid March I don't think he'll be at peak fitness until start of May when they'll only be three games left.
Still the sort who'll pop up with a vital goal or two in the run in.
I think this is the supporter law of the injured player which states that the longer he is away the better he becomes. As I recall many on here were calling for him to be dropped /rested before he got injured because he was so out of form ( albeit carrying an injury). I don't think we will be seeing the best of McGinn until next season whichever league we are in.
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How many 'MUST WIN' games have we had now and lost? can't fault the performance on Sunday but mistakes and inconsistent performances will see us go down
West Ham could be huge last game but i can see us both dropping with Norwich
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We'll win them all obviously. What's that, 61 points? Should be enough.
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Whoever we play we must tighten up our approach, far to open. Teams are finding it to easy to get in positions to hurt us. But we are at the back end of the season and can’t see Smith et al sorting it out.
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It'll certainly help if we show the passion we showed on Sunday in all the remaining games.
What we do not want is some of the listless games that we have seen this season (Bournemouth away, SheffU away, for example).
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The way our recent history has gone since I honestly think we'll go to West Ham on the last day needing to win. Play offs 3 years running.
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How many 'MUST WIN' games have we had now and lost? can't fault the performance on Sunday but mistakes and inconsistent performances will see us go down
West Ham could be huge last game but i can see us both dropping with Norwich
There does feel like there has been a lot of ‘must wins’, but to be fair while we’ve obviously lost a lot more games than we’ve won overall, in terms of the must wins, it’s felt like they’ve evened themselves out. Xmas felt massive, we get mullered by Southampton and Watford but beat Norwich and Burnley. After the hiding to Man City we get a credible draw at Brighton and then beat Watford. Bournemouth hugely disappointing, Spurs most of us would of settled for a point I guess.
My point is I guess, we haven’t lost all of the games that felt must win, even though sometimes it feels like that. To me Southampton, Newcastle, palace are the games that now feel must win, but then we may not pick up points in some of those and get more unlikely results in others. I’m hoping we’re safe by West Ham...hoping!
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How many 'MUST WIN' games have we had now and lost? can't fault the performance on Sunday but mistakes and inconsistent performances will see us go down
West Ham could be huge last game but i can see us both dropping with Norwich
There does feel like there has been a lot of ‘must wins’, but to be fair while we’ve obviously lost a lot more games than we’ve won overall, in terms of the must wins, it’s felt like they’ve evened themselves out. Xmas felt massive, we get mullered by Southampton and Watford but beat Norwich and Burnley. After the hiding to Man City we get a credible draw at Brighton and then beat Watford. Bournemouth hugely disappointing, Spurs most of us would of settled for a point I guess.
My point is I guess, we haven’t lost all of the games that felt must win, even though sometimes it feels like that. To me Southampton, Newcastle, palace are the games that now feel must win, but then we may not pick up points in some of those and get more unlikely results in others. I’m hoping we’re safe by West Ham...hoping!
The worry is we still have only taken one point from the top 6 whilst other teams around us have had a win or two against them, the annoying thing is we have done very well in most of the big games, spurs away,home , liverpool home but come away with nothing but a point against Man U
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How many 'MUST WIN' games have we had now and lost? can't fault the performance on Sunday but mistakes and inconsistent performances will see us go down
West Ham could be huge last game but i can see us both dropping with Norwich
There does feel like there has been a lot of ‘must wins’, but to be fair while we’ve obviously lost a lot more games than we’ve won overall, in terms of the must wins, it’s felt like they’ve evened themselves out. Xmas felt massive, we get mullered by Southampton and Watford but beat Norwich and Burnley. After the hiding to Man City we get a credible draw at Brighton and then beat Watford. Bournemouth hugely disappointing, Spurs most of us would of settled for a point I guess.
My point is I guess, we haven’t lost all of the games that felt must win, even though sometimes it feels like that. To me Southampton, Newcastle, palace are the games that now feel must win, but then we may not pick up points in some of those and get more unlikely results in others. I’m hoping we’re safe by West Ham...hoping!
The worry is we still have only taken one point from the top 6 whilst other teams around us have had a win or two against them, the annoying thing is we have done very well in most of the big games, spurs away,home , liverpool home but come away with nothing but a point against Man U
I understand the concern about our points total - because we don't have enough of the fuckers - but it really doesn't matter where they come from.
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I’m really hoping to get get points from Wolves Sheffield Utd Crystal Palace Southampton and Newcastle and one surprise result that could leave us with between 31 and 43 points fingers crossed its 5 wins and a draw
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I’m really hoping to get get points from Wolves Sheffield Utd Crystal Palace Southampton and Newcastle and one surprise result that could leave us with between 31 and 43 points fingers crossed its 5 wins and a draw
Given the form table I think beating wolves and sheff Utd might be surprise results! Hope your right though
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I am disappointed at the institutional negativity at H&V.
At the top of this page it says " Go Down".
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Aston Villa 7/4 to stay up with William hill
Aston to be relegated best odds 2/5 with Skybet.
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I just putting here also some stuff I placed on the swing o metre thread.
The bottom 3 with 9 games remaining stayed the same last season so the Sheffield Utd match is a must win.
It will give us an edge and basically averaging at least a point a game I think would see us narrowly survive though it will be close. So to not be in the bottom 3 with 9 games remaining would enhance our chances.
A simple 3 wins equivalent won't be enough - 9 points
I'm hopeful villa can get 10/11 just survive
The equivalent tally to our first 10 matches of the season with 3 wins and 2 draws in 10 matches.
12+ points and I think Villa will be safe !
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I’m really hoping to get get points from Wolves Sheffield Utd Crystal Palace Southampton and Newcastle and one surprise result that could leave us with between 31 and 43 points fingers crossed its 5 wins and a draw
Given the form table I think beating wolves and sheff Utd might be surprise results! Hope your right though
I think the break has been long enough for the form table to go out of the window. Whether that is a correct guess or not we are about to find out.
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I'm hoping to get something from the 4 teams who wont have anything to play for by the time we meet them - Arsenal Everton Palace and yes, Liverpool.
Wolves Sheff Utd Chelsea Man U all Champions League chasing.
Newcastle and West Ham relegation battling.
Its going to be tough.
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300/1 to not lose a game in our reaming 10
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We were in freefall coming into March and it wasn't looking good. It's been a long break, the players are ready to go and with Deans personal issues an incentive to win, I'd fancy us to stay up now starting with Sheff Utd. The league should've been scrapped for this year and I'm not just saying that because of where we were. It's only now I'm beginning to realise just how much money talks and how little the health and well-being of players means to those in power. So be it...Jack, Tyrone, John keep us up.
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So true .
Great points would just like to add Samatta is a real goal getter and hopefully finds his fitness as looks well capable of hitting the net
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I have a weird feeling that we might do a Houlier/Gary Mac and end up way more comfortable than the rest of the season suggested. That's obviously a terrible omen.
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What's our likely team going to be v Sheff Utd? From what I can recall of the game earlier in the season, it was a desperately poor game quality wise and we never attempted to play with the ball. Once they scored, we never looked as if we would have the gumption to get back in the game. I remember them looking to target poor old Targett all game with cross field diagonal passes to expose him and the lack of cover in front of him. Our lack of mobility in the middle a real problem too.
I think we should set up to match them anyway formation wise but with Engels as sweeper, not Mings. McGinn will come back into midfield but he has never been comfortable in a sitting role. Big decision then to bring Davis in up top to give us a physical presence or Samatta. Samatta is a classy player but Davis would be my choice for this one. Let's get McGinn and Grealish playing off him with Luiz and Nakamba under clear instructions not to get caught beyond the ball.
We can help ourselves by not considering jokers like Reina or Drinky for selection. The unfortunate reality is our team remains depressingly lightweight especially in midfield.
---------------Nyland
----Konsa, Engels, Mings
Guilbert, Luiz, Nakamba, Targett
-----McGinn, Davis, Grealish
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No Samatta?
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Steer (if fit) over Nyland.
Samatta must start.
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Steer
Guilbert Konsa Mings Targett
Nakamba
Grealish McGinn Luiz
Samatta Davis
Never gonna happen but going two up top gives us more chance of scoring. Push the full backs on and go gung ho. Best chance of winning because we can't defend for shit.
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Even though it's over 3 months since we played, the memory of those last 2 car crash league games is still quite strong.
I just hope I am wrong and that the players step up, but looking at our prospective line ups and the general level of the remaining opposition, I can't say I'm confident.
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No Samatta?
Think he is a decent player but if we are to go with one up top then I think Davis is a better fit to bring the likes of McGinn and Grealish into the game. Samatta has been very isolated in some games so far and Davis will hold the ball up better.
Ideally go with both up top but we would be torn a new one (again) with a man less in midfield. Don't think either of our full backs are good enough defensively to play in a flat four, so definitely think three at the back, especially v Sheff Utd, is the way to go.
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I like Keinan, but at this point he’s is a non-scoring striker. Not a chance I’d be starting him as a lone striker.
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... The unfortunate reality is our team remains depressingly lightweight especially in midfield.
---------------Nyland
----Konsa, Engels, Mings
Guilbert, Luiz, Nakamba, Targett
-----McGinn, Davis, Grealish
Which is why I'd play Davis and Samatta, and have a MF 3 of Nakamba, McGinn and Grealish.
The most important thing they need to do is nail Horwood and push the SheffU wingbacks back.
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Steer (if fit) over Nyland.
Samatta must start.
I like Steer but personally felt Nyland has really stepped up to the plate most times he's been called upo this season and his attitude has been bang on. He'd be starting for me.
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It's a tough one because they've both earnt a run, Steer last season and Nyland this. I'd go for Nyland, simply because you'd think he's closer to 100%.
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With McGinn's engine back into the equation, I would go to have 2 up-front.
Does anyone know if teams will be able to update their squad of 25 for the re-start? I never heard a conclusion on that. Potentially we could have Heaton and maybe Wesley back.
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With McGinn's engine back into the equation, I would go to have 2 up-front.
Does anyone know if teams will be able to update their squad of 25 for the re-start? I never heard a conclusion on that. Potentially we could have Heaton and maybe Wesley back.
I would disagree and say Samatta would benefit on his own with meatball on the pitch; we need to shore up our defence.
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I would have Kienan starting if he's fit.
We don't keep hold of the ball up the pitch, our best players are not getting where they're most effective, and we're repeayedly inviting pressure as a result.
He holds the ball up superbly, and then uses it well. The goals will come.
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Steer (if fit) over Nyland.
Samatta must start.
I like Steer but personally felt Nyland has really stepped up to the plate most times he's been called upo this season and his attitude has been bang on. He'd be starting for me.
I totally agree. Steer has been excellent since last season but Nyland has had a couple of blinders this season. Tough call. Nice problem to have though.
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He'll probably start Reina.
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He'll probably start Reina.
I thought Reina had said hasta la vista baby. I won't be back.
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3-5-2 is that what Smith will plum for in opening match.
Have to match up with the energy in Sheffield Utd midfield.
That Fleck and Lundstrum sums up Sheffield United with there effort and energy over outstanding football ability.
Hopefully with McGinn back it will help that strengthen that area. Lansbury played in the earlier fixture and gave us the presence of a statue. If Luiz and Nakamba could match the Sheff Utd duo for effort and energy we wouldn't be 19th currently.
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If McGinn can just be the McGinn we know and love, Grealish can forget the dip in form before lockdown and nakamba can show the energy and tenacity that he showed in some games, like Liverpool and Watford at home and not turn in headless chicken performances like in many other games, then we have a chance in the first game.
I would like smith to try Samatta and Davies up top and use Guilbert and Targett as wing backs with 3 cbs. We used a half hearted version of this at the turn of the year with still one up top with Grealish behind and a winger still in the team. I like El Ghazi to an extent but for remainder of the season would use him as an impact sub or to change formation if needed. Trezeguets cut inside and loss of the ball when a simple pass was on, in last minute of cup final, summed up his season for me. He’s not currently good enough with ball or decision making and I would only use him sparingly for remainder of season. He may get better next season.
I hope all this happens but as Dean has literally never gone with two strikers, I can see a continuation of one striker with a hope of better form and a McGinn.
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Steer
Guilbert Konsa Mings Targett
Nakamba
Grealish McGinn Luiz
Samatta Davis
Never gonna happen but going two up top gives us more chance of scoring. Push the full backs on and go gung ho. Best chance of winning because we can't defend for shit.
Everything else has failed so why not. I like that line up. I'd just swap Jack to the middle and SJM to the right. Both our fullbacks require some decent protection and I don't want to see Jack back defending.
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Steer
Guilbert Konsa Mings Targett
Nakamba
McGinn Luiz Grealish
Samatta Davis
Never gonna happen but going two up top gives us more chance of scoring. Push the full backs on and go gung ho. Best chance of winning because we can't defend for shit.
Everything else has failed so why not. I like that line up. I'd just swap Jack to the middle and SJM to the right. Both our fullbacks require some decent protection and I don't want to see Jack back defending.
I swapped it to move Jack to the left as I think Luiz would be better in the centre. We have to go for it. We have proven to the world that we are crap defensively, I think our only option is to take the game to the oppo and hope for the best. Like I say, I think Dean will stick to his trusted 4-3-3 and we will revert to type, although God, I hope not.
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I'd bring in Hause and go with 3 cbs. As limited as he is he's o.k in the air and Sheffield have scored a few headed goals v us in recent seasons. Their long diagonals to full backs also a feature of their play.
Would keep Luiz on the bench. Whatever the score we'll need to bring on a couple of players who can keep the tempo up around 70th minute due to the long lay off so think him and AEG are the best bets for that. Luiz had some good games off the bench in January.
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Following on from the leicester match 4-0 defeat and that set up and line up well I would have Guilbert and Luiz out and have McGinn and El Ghazi or Davis in.
Those 2 are always the first to drop in form minute match becomes a struggle as does El Ghazi. So give Davis a go .
I don't trust Luiz- he's only half interested as much as he's very gifted definitely have super John in for him.
I rather have Hourihane stay in team for this initial match alongside McGinn and Nakamba. As he knows the patterns of play far better and maybe I would also switch Elmo back to right back for Guilbert.
Reina
Elmo
Engels
Mings
Targett
Nakamba
McGinn
Hourihane
Grealish
El Ghazi/Davis
Samatta
Though I suspect Dean Smith will have Hourihane benched rather than Doug for McGinn and Guilbert will play and get booked.
In these matches you can count on Hourihane and McGinn to provide goal threats. We don't know what we get with Dougie too inconsistent . How much is he committed? I do like his play , think he's a class act at times with the football but, his winning attitude could be found wanting against a Sheff United midfield. Last thing we need is a midfielder going hiding.
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I wouldn’t have Reina in goal. I’d go with Nyland or Steer, probably Nyland. Presume you left out Guilbert for Elmo because of Guilbert’s yellows? I’d probably start with Guilbert and swap him for Elmo later on. I’d probably switch Connor for Doug against Sheff Utd.
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Paul Doyle from The Guardian has us staying up. I’m agreeing with him, I think.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jun/08/premier-league-restart-preview-aston-villa
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I'd rather have Hourihane in the mix than 2 up front. He provides excellent goal threat and I just think our midfield will get over run with two up top. Call it 4-5-1 or 4-3-3
I'd like to get Jack more central, but I just don't think our wide players are good enough. But Hourihane switches well with him anyway. Or you could potentially switch ElGhazi to the left with McGinn on the right to free up Jack.
Nyland
Guilbert Engels Mings Targett
El Ghazi McGinn Nakamba Hourihane Grealish
Samatta
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I also agree that that is our best starting 11, ChrisW. Possibly more of a 4141 though, with Nakamba sitting deeper and Jack and Connor regularly switching places especially when Jack receives the ball out wide then cuts inside.
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Paul Doyle from The Guardian has us staying up. I’m agreeing with him, I think.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jun/08/premier-league-restart-preview-aston-villa
A positive assessment there from Paul Doyle. My main concern from this season so far is the sloppy (and often unforced) errors we make all over the pitch. We are often uncomfortable in possession and treat the ball like a hot potato.
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If it is going to be close please can it be that us and Wet Spam need a draw on the last day? We play out a desperately dull 0-0 bore draw that sends Watford down and their tinpot fans hate us for all eternity. Thanks.
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I guess that's why we read stuff on here and Paul Doyle writes for a global news outlet, footy!
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I listened to Talksport this morning for the first time in quite a while. Our legendary former manager 'Tactics Tim' thinks we will struggle to stay up.
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I listened to Talksport this morning for the first time in quite a while. Our legendary former manager 'Tactics Tim' thinks we will struggle to stay up.
It's hardly great insight, but not particulalrly controversial either - I imagine most people think we'll struggle to stay up.
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We'll continue to struggle if we don't change things up a bit. Hopefully the return of McGinn will help our lack of legs in midfield, but we still have 2 full backs who can't defend, a lack of height and physicality and an inability to retain the ball up front. So I'd go 3-5-2 or 4-3-3 with one of Konsa or Hause at full back. Either way Davis up front to hold the ball up and Samatta playing as near to him as possible. We were dead and buried in March, but now there's hope with the right selections and a more ruthless approach. The amount of stupid points we've squandered is what's put is in this position. We've also got a few players that seem to prefer the warm weather so hopefully they can make an impact from our extended bench!
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I listened to Talksport this morning for the first time in quite a while. Our legendary former manager 'Tactics Tim' thinks we will struggle to stay up.
Between Talksport stations and BBC radio 5 live every match will be live commentary
Villa v Wolves will be the first match of restart on Talksport .
Maybe they will rope Timmy in for that one !
BBC 5 live will have first 3 villa matches
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Tim Sherwood....wonder did he "earn" enough with us after tax to live comfortably til he's 88? The occasional Talksport input isn't going to top him up too much.
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Win the first 6 games Villa, that’ll do.
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I listened to Talksport this morning for the first time in quite a while. Our legendary former manager 'Tactics Tim' thinks we will struggle to stay up.
We were in a bad place before the season came to a halt, but with McGinn now back and the players fully refreshed, I don't see why we can't finish the season in the manner we started it and I think that would probably be enough to keep us up.
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Thought this guy did enough during and after us to never again grace a radio or TV studio with his "input". Stick to waxing lyrical about Spurs Tim where they still might listen. Here at Villa you were found out to be a tactically naive chancer and a bluffer. We'll stay up. The break will do us good.
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Thought this guy did enough during and after us to never again grace a radio or TV studio with his "input". Stick to waxing lyrical about Spurs Tim where they still might listen. Here at Villa you were found out to be a tactically naive chancer and a bluffer. We'll stay up. The break will do us good.
Whatever else he did, he gave me two of my best days watching the Villa.
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You can't pre-judged what the next 10 games will be like because the circumstances are so different to before. Anything is possible. We're just as likely to be worse than before the stoppage as be better.
If we cut out the mistakes (Luis, Mings, Engels & Pepe) & Smith stops playing so wide open, we might surprise a few people. But every team around us will think the same.
It won't all depend on the first game but a win would be a huge boost.
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Unless I’ve missed it, are we not playing a final warm up match this weekend?
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I've got something akin to pre season optimism at the moment but I am expecting this to be punctured as soon as we start playing again. So maybe I've got pre season pessimism. These three sport free months have left me discombobulated.
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they've done wonders for my stress levels but i'm sure all that will change on Wednesday
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Just to give people the heads up several players won't be at it 100% fitness wise.
Now it's a question if Smith picks the players who maintained fitness during the break or just his best players . There are also the vibrant youth players go consider for cameos. These players could well be a wild card as Smith would have coached them into Villas patterns of play and they would be eager and enthusiastic.
I think Smith has a lot of aces up his sleeve with the first team squad players who have somewhat underperformed that they can relax and play without pressure.
The thorn in side is Drinkwater. Feel he stinks out the place and shouldn't be part of squad. Would actually rather have kept Barney Bjarnason instead ! Or even Gary Gardner !
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You can't pre-judged what the next 10 games will be like because the circumstances are so different to before. Anything is possible. We're just as likely to be worse than before the stoppage as be better.
If we cut out the mistakes (Luis, Mings, Engels & Pepe) & Smith stops playing so wide open, we might surprise a few people. But every team around us will think the same.
It won't all depend on the first game but a win would be a huge boost.
Thinking about the Southampton and Leicester games, we surely can’t be worse?
For me, the break can only have helped us - after Leicester, we were as good as down. We’ve got SJM back which is a massive boost too. A win, in any way possible, would be huge.
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I think we need to make sure we've got width. Stop their full backs.
Steer
Guilbert Engels Mings Targett
Nakamba
Elmo McGinn Grealish El Ghazi
Samatta
We'd have a crosser in there, a creative spark with Grealish, an engine with McGinn.
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This is a small bit of good news, relegation-wise.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jun/17/ryan-fraser-to-leave-bournemouth-after-rejecting-short-term-contract-extension
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This is a small bit of good news, relegation-wise.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jun/17/ryan-fraser-to-leave-bournemouth-after-rejecting-short-term-contract-extension
It is good news, and he's just the kind of wide player we need so I'd try and sign him.
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It's only so he doesn't get injured - He's signed a pre-contract agreement with Liverpool hasn't he?
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It's only so he doesn't get injured - He's signed a pre-contract agreement with Liverpool hasn't he?
The article says he's had no firm offers.
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LLWWDW
I can but dream...
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We’re dreadful, but it’s annoying to have Liverpool and a resurgent Manure back to back.
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(https://scontent-lht6-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/106527219_3363063897070989_1374042198063662085_o.jpg?_nc_cat=1&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=EVRVK9jOOh8AX9Ojyy2&_nc_ht=scontent-lht6-1.xx&oh=1bc239099980cf9aadd6c05ff82f9d6d&oe=5F22B33C)
3 points is my prediction,
How many do you think we will get.
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Officially relegated after Everton game
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3 points is my prediction,
How many do you think we will get.
Two. Palace and West Ham.
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Suddenly those games look a lot harder!!
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Officially relegated after Everton game
Would still be surprised, think Watford have Chelsea and Man. City in their next 4 games so they'll do well to build a 6-7 point gap over us. They also play West Ham the weekend of Everton game so at least one of them will drop points.
I still wouldn't be surprised if we had a slim chance on the final day but we're obviously going to have to find one win from somewhere before that game to do that.
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Four. Draws in the last 4 fixtures. And I'm being optimistic there.
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Until Watford win another game (that isn't v Norwich) there's still small hope for me.
Watford are playing Chelsea at the weekend though!
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Officially relegated after Everton game
Agreed. We're not even in the race.
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Officially relegated after Everton game
Agreed. We're not even in the race.
The Run In? We arent really even making any good runs into the box, let alone making anything good of the Run In.
Despite that terrible try at trying to be funny, I agree. The sooner it happens, we can sell Jack, sack Smith and move on.
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Officially relegated after Everton game
Agreed. We're not even in the race.
The Run In? We arent really even making any good runs into the box, let alone making anything good of the Run In.
Despite that terrible try at trying to be funny, I agree. The sooner it happens, we can sell Jack, sack Smith and move on.
That's the spirit.
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Take the lead against Liverpool. Bottle it. Zero points.
Go two up against Man U. Bottle it. Winning goal scored by someone who will never be heard of again, deep in injury time. Zero points.
Palace. Ayew scores early, we go two-one up, Benteke equalises. One point.
Everton. They seem to have a chip on their shoulder about us for some reason. They'll win. Delph will probably score. Zero points.
Chelsenal Hotspur. We know what happens with any of these c***s. Lose to everyone around us, beat us. They'll rest loads of players and still win. We'll probably take the lead. Zero points.
West Ham. Already down, just like Newcastle in 2016 we take them with us with a draw. One point.
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Emile Heskey was on 5live this morning and said us and Bournemouth are gone.
Looking at the fixtures, and current form, he couldn’t see any way out for us.
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Another so called expert.
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It’s hard to argue. We’ve taken what 2 points from 27? If we survive we will have had a massively atypical upturn in form. I hope it happens but the odds are against it. Manure next, who we never beat and who have hit good form.
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Most on the Watford forum think they're as good as down if they don't beat Norwich. Think they're assuming we'll find a win from nowhere.
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It’s hard to argue. We’ve taken what 2 points from 27? If we survive we will have had a massively atypical upturn in form. I hope it happens but the odds are against it. Manure next, who we never beat and who have hit good form.
Do you not think the last few performances have generally been better though? You could make a case that we are slightly unfortunate to only have two points from the last five games so it’s not inconceivable that we pick up, say, a win and a couple of draws from our next five games.
Also, taking the form to a certain point as you have, you could say Watford have five points from the last thirty. We would only need a massive atypical upturn in form if they have one too.
We are more likely to go down than Watford but there isn’t that much in it.
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Man United - 0
Palace - 3
Everton - 1
Arsenal - 0
West Ham - 3
35 points. Watford beat Norwich and draw with Newcastle lose to West Ham (to confirm their survival) and then get drummed by Man City and Arsenal. 33 points.
Fingers crossed.
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A Watford fan:
Obviously Liverpool have decided to be abysmal for some reason, however, fair play to Villa
This performance is everything we should have aspired to last night. Strengthens my belief that they will grind their way above us over the final few games
I'll scroll on to see if their version of Paul digs him out *wonky face *
Found the Hertfordshire Risso!
I just can't see us beating anyone, even Norwich. Villa will overtake us at some point
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big week for us
could do with a draw or loss for Watford when they play Norwich if they win they are 4 points ahead of us before we play Man Utd
we will probably (nailed on) lose against Man Utd
but then we got C Palace which if ever there was a must win game that is it
thats why if Watford can just take a point or lose against Norwich we can go above them as their remaining games are on paper harder than ours i think
i think its a straight shoot out between us and Watford and the results this week will be crucial,
in a way theirs more than ours because we know what we will do
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It’s hard to argue. We’ve taken what 2 points from 27? If we survive we will have had a massively atypical upturn in form. I hope it happens but the odds are against it. Manure next, who we never beat and who have hit good form.
Do you not think the last few performances have generally been better though? You could make a case that we are slightly unfortunate to only have two points from the last five games so it’s not inconceivable that we pick up, say, a win and a couple of draws from our next five games.
Also, taking the form to a certain point as you have, you could say Watford have five points from the last thirty. We would only need a massive atypical upturn in form if they have one too.
We are more likely to go down than Watford but there isn’t that much in it.
Performance has been a little better but the big problem, as far as I can see anyway, is that our team doesn’t appear to have goals in it. As soon as we concede we’re in massive trouble. Unless we start banging in some goals we’re going to struggle.
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I can understand why he might not start, but it seems mad not to have Hourihane on the pitch when we're chasing a goal toward the ends of games.