Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: Matt Collins on December 23, 2017, 08:18:49 PM
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This may have been gone over before, but i was looking to see how FFP will affect us next year.
The rules I think state that you can average a 13m loss over three years, but with special dispensation to lose 35m in a prem season. Which would suggest to me 61m. See http://www.financialfairplay.co.uk/financial-fair-play-explained.php
Looks to me that we lost 29m In our relegation season. I assume we don’t get a credit for the difference with the 35m above.
So it’s a case of averaging 13m losses per season. We won’t have the next accounts until Feb? But given the massive spending we did the previous summer and the tight position since then i assume we’ll be well over 13m. But would anyone have any sense of whereabouts
With parachute money ending next war I assume we’d have to sell at least a couple of our more valuable players (Chester, Kodjia, grealish, Adomah, hourihane)?
Happy days
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Might as well sell them if we can’t be bothered to compete.
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It's obvious people like Chester and Kodjia won't be sticking around if we don't go up. We paid them well but ultimately players of that ilk will have interest from the premier league and they'll want to go back to that level.
So that's two international quality players we'd be losing.
Way SB has built up the squad it really is promotion or bust. If we don't go up Terry will retire and we then have players in their mid 30s like Samba, Hutton, Jedinak and Whelan. That's just the back 4/defensive midfield options.
Would be a lot of rebuilding for the next manager to do.
More I look at it with less income from parachutes and more a manager who has to find up coming players it probably would be as best time as any to get a Dean Smith type in who can actually coach on the training pitch and sign up and coming players who can pass the ball around a bit.
Would we be capable of promotion next season. Think it would be a struggle but we haven't made a great fist of challenging these two years spending over 50m have we?
Time would be right for a different approach. It all of course hinges on the course the owner takes. He's been talking a lot of it taking us two years to get back in the premier league so what's plan B if there is one?
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Why not take the hit now?
Get rid of Bruce, get somebody decent in and provide him with some cash to strengthen in this window, and if it works, we go up, and FFP does not apply.
Its a risk, but its a bigger risk if we fail under Bruce, imo.
Docs got some hard thinking to do!!
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It really is a serious concern now.
Without the accounts it’s hard to work out exactly where we will be, but if we are allready up against FFP the situation next season looks perilous.
The 3 teams comming down have an increasingly massive financial advantage to those allready there.
We will struggle to hold onto the players we want and get rid of players we don’t.
Far too much faith and money has been invested in Bruce and we will struggle to recover from this.
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It really is a serious concern now.
Without the accounts it’s hard to work out exactly where we will be, but if we are allready up against FFP the situation next season looks perilous.
The 3 teams comming down have an increasingly massive financial advantage to those allready there.
We will struggle to hold onto the players we want and get rid of players we don’t.
Far too much faith and money has been invested in Bruce and we will struggle to recover from this.
Well if we do fail this term, i think we may have new owners by next xmas. Cant see Xia hanging around.
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well the wages bit should be eased. on paper we get rid of Gabby, hutton, samba and terry which is probably the best part of 250k a week gone. only terry would be a big loss out of them i think
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Hopefully it will mean we'll be forced to play the kids, who look far more inclined to fight for the shirt than the current first XI.
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Hopefully it will mean we'll be forced to play the kids, who look far more inclined to fight for the shirt than the current first XI.
What would people be saying though if we were 12th this time next season with half a team of them. It wouldn't be all encouragement on here I'm pretty sure of it.
Circumstances might have to force us to do it though.
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Only assets value wise we have are Chester, Kodjia and Jack. £25-£30m between them. We will get £8m for Amavi and off the wage bill we will have about £200k a week after Gabby, Hutton, Terry, Bunn are gone.
Issue is we will literally have to start again the rebuild. New manager needing a whole new team on sell to buy. We could be in this league for a good few seasons yet
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Only assets value wise we have are Chester, Kodjia and Jack. £25-£30m between them. We will get £8m for Amavi and off the wage bill we will have about £200k a week after Gabby, Hutton, Terry, Bunn are gone.
Issue is we will literally have to start again the rebuild. New manager needing a whole new team on sell to buy. We could be in this league for a good few seasons yet
Yep this year to me is promotion or bust.
Bust being given the make up of the squad it could take us another 2-3 years to get a proper team constructed to really go for promotion. Good luck selling that message to much of our fanbase.
That said if we're going down that route getting a manager like Dean Smith in would make sense as he's shown skills of building good passing sides on limited budgets at the two clubs he's managed.
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It promotion or bust which is why I would be kicking Bruce out the door now , he simply has shown nothing in his time to suggest he is capable of competing with the top teams in the league
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Hopefully it will mean we'll be forced to play the kids, who look far more inclined to fight for the shirt than the current first XI.
The ‘fight for the shirt’ thing is a smoke screen. We’re not struggling due to a lack of effort, we’re struggling due to a lack of tactical nous. You can put youngsters in and you’d end up in the same position, and probably worse if you did it en masse.
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We're going to do an Ipswich and be marooned in this league for 15 seasons!
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It doesn't have to be. What we should do is cut our cloth accordingly. With our revenues we should still be amongst the highest grossing clubs in the division. The obvious disadvantage financially will be those clubs that will come down, but as we have demonstrated admirably and Sunderland too, it doesn't matter what resources you have if you blow it all on terrible players and/or bought by a terrible manager.
I would rather us get rid as best as possible of the high earners, recruit well (Burnley, Huddersfield, Bournemouth etc etc etc all seem managed this just fine) and bring through some of our very talented kids to add life and speed to our club.
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It doesn't have to be. What we should do is cut our cloth accordingly. With our revenues we should still be amongst the highest grossing clubs in the division. The obvious disadvantage financially will be those clubs that will come down, but as we have demonstrated admirably and Sunderland too, it doesn't matter what resources you have if you blow it all on terrible players and/or bought by a terrible manager.
I would rather us get rid as best as possible of the high earners, recruit well (Burnley, Huddersfield, Bournemouth etc etc etc all seem managed this just fine) and bring through some of our very talented kids to add life and speed to our club.
I’m confident that on the commercial side we currently have the best reach and nouse that we’ve ever had.
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It doesn't have to be. What we should do is cut our cloth accordingly. With our revenues we should still be amongst the highest grossing clubs in the division. The obvious disadvantage financially will be those clubs that will come down, but as we have demonstrated admirably and Sunderland too, it doesn't matter what resources you have if you blow it all on terrible players and/or bought by a terrible manager.
I would rather us get rid as best as possible of the high earners, recruit well (Burnley, Huddersfield, Bournemouth etc etc etc all seem managed this just fine) and bring through some of our very talented kids to add life and speed to our club.
I’m confident that on the commercial side we currently have the best reach and nouse that we’ve ever had.
As fans if we went and got an up and coming manager; the next Wagner or Dyche or Howe (of course it would be great to get one of those but in all likelihood we won't) we have to trust their judgment when they buy that kid from League 2 or non league who becomes the next Nakhi Wells or Callum Wilson or Andre Gray . Just because we are Aston Villa we have no divine right to shopping at the top end of the market. We have to get younger and faster and more streamlined as a club. The money will always be there if we get promoted. We need to do so much better because we have wasted so much on so little for so long.
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Hopefully it will mean we'll be forced to play the kids, who look far more inclined to fight for the shirt than the current first XI.
What would people be saying though if we were 12th this time next season with half a team of them. It wouldn't be all encouragement on here I'm pretty sure of it.
Circumstances might have to force us to do it though.
What might they be saying if we have a decent manager getting a tune out of them up at the top though?
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It doesn't have to be. What we should do is cut our cloth accordingly. With our revenues we should still be amongst the highest grossing clubs in the division. The obvious disadvantage financially will be those clubs that will come down, but as we have demonstrated admirably and Sunderland too, it doesn't matter what resources you have if you blow it all on terrible players and/or bought by a terrible manager.
I would rather us get rid as best as possible of the high earners, recruit well (Burnley, Huddersfield, Bournemouth etc etc etc all seem managed this just fine) and bring through some of our very talented kids to add life and speed to our club.
I’m confident that on the commercial side we currently have the best reach and nouse that we’ve ever had.
Really?
Based on what?
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Hopefully it will mean we'll be forced to play the kids, who look far more inclined to fight for the shirt than the current first XI.
What would people be saying though if we were 12th this time next season with half a team of them. It wouldn't be all encouragement on here I'm pretty sure of it.
Circumstances might have to force us to do it though.
What might they be saying if we have a decent manager getting a tune out of them up at the top though?
Yes it would be great but that's obviously the best case scenario and that hasn't happened to us much since 2010 so we'd need to make many right decisions in terms of recruitment.
So just to be clear people want us to go down the route we did under Lambert for the first 18 months but hope because we're not playing premier league teams results will be kinder?
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It doesn't have to be. What we should do is cut our cloth accordingly. With our revenues we should still be amongst the highest grossing clubs in the division. The obvious disadvantage financially will be those clubs that will come down, but as we have demonstrated admirably and Sunderland too, it doesn't matter what resources you have if you blow it all on terrible players and/or bought by a terrible manager.
I would rather us get rid as best as possible of the high earners, recruit well (Burnley, Huddersfield, Bournemouth etc etc etc all seem managed this just fine) and bring through some of our very talented kids to add life and speed to our club.
I’m confident that on the commercial side we currently have the best reach and nouse that we’ve ever had.
Really?
Based on what?
Tom Fox told us.
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It doesn't have to be. What we should do is cut our cloth accordingly. With our revenues we should still be amongst the highest grossing clubs in the division. The obvious disadvantage financially will be those clubs that will come down, but as we have demonstrated admirably and Sunderland too, it doesn't matter what resources you have if you blow it all on terrible players and/or bought by a terrible manager.
I would rather us get rid as best as possible of the high earners, recruit well (Burnley, Huddersfield, Bournemouth etc etc etc all seem managed this just fine) and bring through some of our very talented kids to add life and speed to our club.
I’m confident that on the commercial side we currently have the best reach and nouse that we’ve ever had.
Really?
Based on what?
Tom Fox told us.
Thanks for putting my mind at rest. ;)
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I've read the two pages Re: How will FFP affect us next year, and nobody answered the question, so will someone tell me how FFP will affect the club?
Or is it a case of waiting for the accounts to be published?
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I assume we will be royally fucked by it as we lose most of our parachute payments and would need to find £20+m to balance the books?
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Only assets value wise we have are Chester, Kodjia and Jack. £25-£30m between them. We will get £8m for Amavi and off the wage bill we will have about £200k a week after Gabby, Hutton, Terry, Bunn are gone.
Issue is we will literally have to start again the rebuild. New manager needing a whole new team on sell to buy. We could be in this league for a good few seasons yet
Andre Green, O'Hare, Davis, RHM are all worth a few Bob. And if Jack kicks on and puts in performances like this week, he will probably raise 30m on his own....
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The parachute money drops to £16m next year from memory.
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What are we currently getting from it Chelts?
Edit: Personally think if we don't go up we'd sell Chester and if he's not still injured Kodjia. That would be 20m + right there and the Amavi money would also come through.
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What are we currently getting from it Chelts?
Edit: Personally think if we don't go up we'd sell Chester and if he's not still injured Kodjia. That would be 20m + right there and the Amavi money would also come through.
Again, working from memory, it was something like £57m in the first season, £47m in the second and £16m in the third. Then you get bugger all. I also have a recollection of us being the last bunch to get 3 years worth (with it dropping to 2 with the new TV deal) but I might be talking bollocks.
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What are we currently getting from it Chelts?
Edit: Personally think if we don't go up we'd sell Chester and if he's not still injured Kodjia. That would be 20m + right there and the Amavi money would also come through.
Again, working from memory, it was something like £57m in the first season, £47m in the second and £16m in the third. Then you get bugger all. I also have a recollection of us being the last bunch to get 3 years worth (with it dropping to 2 with the new TV deal) but I might be talking bollocks.
How is it paid?
Clubs get the following amounts over the three seasons.
In season one, 2016-17, Villa would get £40 million
In season two, 2017-18, Villa would get £33 million
In season three, 2018-19, Villa would get £14 million.
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What are we currently getting from it Chelts?
Edit: Personally think if we don't go up we'd sell Chester and if he's not still injured Kodjia. That would be 20m + right there and the Amavi money would also come through.
Again, working from memory, it was something like £57m in the first season, £47m in the second and £16m in the third. Then you get bugger all. I also have a recollection of us being the last bunch to get 3 years worth (with it dropping to 2 with the new TV deal) but I might be talking bollocks.
How is it paid?
Clubs get the following amounts over the three seasons.
In season one, 2016-17, Villa would get £40 million
In season two, 2017-18, Villa would get £33 million
In season three, 2018-19, Villa would get £14 million.
Cash lump sum.
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Didn't QPR openly flout the rules the last time they went up? I'm sure I remember talk of them possibly having to face massive points deductions or some such if they were to be relegated from the Prem. But I can't recall if anything ever came of it when they did drop.
Anyway, the upshot is if you are confident on getting promotion just ignore FFP. The EFL sanctions don't apply to PL clubs. So Wolves for example can spend with impunity. If I were our chief exec I would abide by the rules - we look like a playoff team at best.
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Didn't QPR openly flout the rules the last time they went up? I'm sure I remember talk of them possibly having to face massive points deductions or some such if they were to be relegated from the Prem. But I can't recall if anything ever came of it when they did drop.
Anyway, the upshot is if you are confident on getting promotion just ignore FFP. The EFL sanctions don't apply to PL clubs. So Wolves for example can spend with impunity. If I were our chief exec I would abide by the rules - we look like a playoff team at best.
Yes they were fined heavily last season but not sure how that's progressing (if they've appealed etc).
Bournemouth and Leicester were both fined after promotion but obviously much easier to pay it off with premier league tv money.
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QPR were fined £40m in October for breaching in 2013/14. They’ve appealed.
Since then sanctions have been widened to include points deductions or demotion from either automatic promotion places to the play-offs or from the play-offs to not in the play-offs.
So, caution is the word, I suspect.