Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: Fergal on January 28, 2013, 05:11:26 PM
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If Randy sold us this summer how much would we be worth?
1. If we stay up
2. If we go down
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1. Fucking loads.
2. Not as much but still more than he paid.
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What somebody is prepared to pay in both scenarios. I think he'd be looking at a massive loss if we went down, and he'd never get his initial investment back let alone recoup any of the losses.
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1) A billion kazillion.
2) 50p
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Probably in current climate not as per other thread the rolled up losses and equity of 250m, especially not if we go down
The villa business model at the moment looks in brummy accounting terms FUCKED.
Only way as he got any chance of getting his money back if a ) some wealthy oil magnet comes and buys us and b) we keep out premership status for the sky cash.
Only positives I can see is we own the ground and training ground which are both in good state and area round villa park is prime for redevelopment
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We'll have a better idea a month from today when the accounts get published - assuming they stick with recent tradition and leave it til the very last second to file the club's accounts with Companies House.
But the value of a football club is in its earning potential. Randy paid £63m for a relegation-threatened, but debt-free club which he thought was prime for improvement, both on and off the pitch. I firmly believe that he thought that by throwing £100m - £200m he'd get us in to the Champions League and would then get his money back and some. Forbes publish an annual list of the top 20 football clubs by value (US dollars) and the usual Champions League suspects from the Premier League show that had he managed it all would be well (2012: Man U - $2.2bn; Arsenal - $1.3bn; Chelsea - $760m; Liverpool - $620m).
Interestingly we were on that list in 2009 when they published the top 25, in at 21st with a value of $240m but we've not appeared on the list since it went to the top 20 in 2010.
What's our earning potential now with over £100m of debt, annual losses and relegation looming? Well not very good, clearly. Whether we stayed up or not Randy would have to take a massive bath to get rid of us. He certainly wouldn't get anywhere near what he's put in and I doubt very much he'd get more than his debt back. But I'd suggest the club is financially in a better place now than it was 12 months ago and 24 months ago.
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It is worth noting that our Income has nearly doubled since Lerner came in, not being a business person in the slightest I don't know what difference it would make but I'd guess it will be a big consideration.
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It is worth noting that our Income has nearly doubled since Lerner came in, not being a business person in the slightest I don't know what difference it would make but I'd guess it will be a big consideration.
Paul fundamentally it has an impact and if relegated it will collapse as most of it comes from Sky ( dont have the break down ) but ultimately its based on factor of profitablity and future revenue and profit streams.
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It is worth noting that our Income has nearly doubled since Lerner came in, not being a business person in the slightest I don't know what difference it would make but I'd guess it will be a big consideration.
It's a consideration but you have to be careful with it.
Headline income figures can be massively affected by TV money and the like. The years we were in the UEFA Cup will have seen much higher revenue and that will have come down since. The increase in income has also been less than the increase in wages which has led to the horrible financial state we've been in over the past 3 years.
If the underlying income figures from the fan base (ticket and merchandise sales) and commercial activities has been increased (which should be more stable) and we can get wages back down to a sensible level then we'll be in a much better place. The accounts next month will give us an indication of how both these factors are doing, albeit the accounts only go up to May 2012.
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We're priceless.
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It is worth noting that our Income has nearly doubled since Lerner came in, not being a business person in the slightest I don't know what difference it would make but I'd guess it will be a big consideration.
Paul fundamentally it has an impact and if relegated it will collapse as most of it comes from Sky ( dont have the break down ) but ultimately its based on factor of profitablity and future revenue and profit streams.
In the 2011 accounts £54m of a total revenue of £92m was media-based. £21m was matchday revenue and £17m commercial. I don't know how much we'd get in parachute payments, or what the media revenue in the Championship is like but I think it's fair to say at least half that £54m media revenue would disappear overnight.
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Probably in current climate not as per other thread the rolled up losses and equity of 250m, especially not if we go down
The villa business model at the moment looks in brummy accounting terms FUCKED.
Only way as he got any chance of getting his money back if a ) some wealthy oil magnet comes and buys us and b) we keep out premership status for the sky cash.
Only positives I can see is we own the ground and training ground which are both in good state and area round villa park is prime for redevelopment
Apparently there was an offer but the two sides were poles apart :)
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We're priceless.
A man of many words.
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Sorry delete my thread, its along the same line.
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From whats's been said it looks like Randy paid 64 million and has spent around 200 million minus what he has took out in the last few years.
Would I be wrong in thinking that if he was able to sell up for 250ish million he would about break even?
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Genuine questions
- how much has he taken back in interest and "management fees" over the years?
- how do these charges compare to commercial rates?
- are the loans liable to him personally or to the Lerner family trust?
- is this a possible reason for the abrupt turning off the taps if it's not just on his says so that money is forthcoming? I'm not advocating we should be bankrolled a la Man City, but it could explain the abruptness rather than a more structured / planned turndown?
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It is worth noting that our Income has nearly doubled since Lerner came in, not being a business person in the slightest I don't know what difference it would make but I'd guess it will be a big consideration.
Paul fundamentally it has an impact and if relegated it will collapse as most of it comes from Sky ( dont have the break down ) but ultimately its based on factor of profitablity and future revenue and profit streams.
In the 2011 accounts £54m of a total revenue of £92m was media-based. £21m was matchday revenue and £17m commercial. I don't know how much we'd get in parachute payments, or what the media revenue in the Championship is like but I think it's fair to say at least half that £54m media revenue would disappear overnight.
Oh I agree totally, I'm just saying that, if we stay up, the debts are surely largely accounted for by the revenue, purely from an investment point of view, particularly with the new TV deal which will add 30-40m on top of that 54m mentioned.
Out of interest for the first 2 years after relegation that 54 would go down to about 25-30, then 15-20 for the following 2 years before becoming about 8-10 from there on, at least those are the rough figures I've seen quoted, it does depend a little on other factors.
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From whats's been said it looks like Randy paid 64 million and has spent around 200 million minus what he has took out in the last few years.
Would I be wrong in thinking that if he was able to sell up for 250ish million he would about break even?
He would, subject to whatever has gone on for the last 18 months, but nobody would ever pay that for the club, especially when we go down.
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If (clutching on to straws here).
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If we were relegated then we'd be on a par with Leeds whose equity was recently sold for £54m.
I'm not sure what Leeds' debts were rolled up in that transaction.
If we are guestimating then I'd say
(a)
struggling premiership club £150m
upper mid table club (ie what we could be with a sensible bit of investment) £250m
(b)
promotion chasing championship club £125m
going nowhere championship club £75m
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If we were relegated then we'd be on a par with Leeds whose equity was recently sold for £54m.
I'm not sure what Leeds' debts were rolled up in that transaction.
If we are guestimating then I'd say
(a)
struggling premiership club £150m
upper mid table club (ie what we could be with a sensible bit of investment) £250m
(b)
promotion chasing championship club £125m
going nowhere championship club £75m
a - maybe a little overstated
b - more so
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Yeah sorry pestria but I think those figures are wishful thinking.
In the last Forbes valuation 20th place was $280m and we wouldn't be anywhere near that after our last few seasons.
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No need to apologise. I was just estimating based on Leeds. Of course the figures I quoted assume zero debt, so the amount paid for the equity would be far less if debt needed to be paid off by the purchaser.
Either way, with a sensible bit of investment Lerner could escape with relatively minor losses. Carrying on with the current suicide plan will lose him around £200m he's not careful. That is if he intends selling at some point.....
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You beat me to it, VCTM. :D
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1) A billion kazillion.
2) 50p
Are you absolutely certain you've got that first figure completely right Pete? What about the outlay on the plastic flags last week?