Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: bob on May 14, 2012, 10:24:16 PM
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Had my fingers burnt somewhat laying McLeish when he moved to favourite shortly before he was appointed last when I understimated our board's stupidity.
Should be some money to be made here if it is possible to somehow figure out what they might be planning this time around.
£11k matched on Betfair so far. £4.5k on Lambert, currently 3.5; £3.8k on Matinez, currently 4.7.
Let's try and avoid too much discussion about the merits of any particular manager in this thread, there will be others for that. Please keep this thread open by keeping discussion to relative merits of backing/laying managers at their current Betfair prices as the market moves.
Market is still in its infancy but I'd probably lay Martinez at around 3.5 as I don't think they'd go there after he 'turned us down'... but who knows?
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So we're supposed to talk about which managers would be "a good lay"?
Honestly Bob, could you not create a thread that isn't about smut, just for once?
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A good start.
Oooooh, I'd love to lay Martinez, he shur is purdy.
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Good lay. Well.
Not talking from experience you understand of course but I always liked ...
Oh. A new one?
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Also got stung on laying Mcleish last year on Betfair. Didn't see randy's Reggie Perrin style decision making coming. In 2010 got 3 tips at long odds for next villa manager. Backed two of them. The third was Gerry Houllier. Bilic a good long shot maybe? Wants to come to England and I think he's finishing with the Croats after Euro 2012
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I'd lay Matinez at the prices on offer. Wouldn't back Lambert at those prices.
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Funnily enough, Bilic was the first candidate I backed last year. Not available to back on Betfair and I wouldn't be rushing to do so this time round, I think someone mentioned on the 'Who do you want as next manager?' thread that he's just signed a contract somewhere.
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Bilic had agreed to go to Lokomotiv Moscow after the Euros so I wouldn't waste your money on him!
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I stand corrected. I'd lay Steve Bruce off on Betfair for a million quid if I could afford it. Surely I've got as much chance of the job as he has?
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So we're supposed to talk about which managers would be "a good lay"?
Honestly Bob, could you not create a thread that isn't about smut, just for once?
Chuckle
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At 12/1 for Paul Ince I would be laying that price all day, he is worse than McLeish!
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Moyes at 70 is worth a couple quid
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Put some serious dough on McCarthy. It's going to happen
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Im sure I heard Martinez say on radio this morning he was staying at wigan, I don't want him anyway he's turned us down once
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I'd lay the Chelsea physio
Seriously, can we appoint AVB or RDM just to bring her along?
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Any odds on Wenger?
Think Arsenal want/need a change.
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Made a few quid on last year's market, ending up with a risk-free £60 on a McLeish but I don't have the funds to risk this year so won't be joining in.
I think at this point I'd be looking to back Rodgers at 20, lay Martinez at about 4.6, then hopefully laying/backing at lower/higher prices to create a "green" situation later on - Rodgers at say 12, Martinez at 8. Caveat emptor etc.
Hopefully, there will be a very volatile market again.
Good luck.
edit:
also quite like Poyet (back at 30?), and Curbishley (lay at 12?)
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£10 on Paul Lambert with 888Sport at 5/2 yesterday.
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Good stuff deej
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Laid McCarthy at odds of 6 and hes back up to 8. Not much money on the market so any bets are going to make the odds swing - someone on a chat thread on Betfair was tipping McCarthy so it sounds like an attempt at a pump and dump (not enough interest in this market though I think). I could green out but not worth it - no way would he be in the running. Of the almost £20k on Betfair £8k is on Lambert. £20k is tiny - for example theres is £250k on the 17.20 at Hereford.
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If anyone wants some guaranteed I just backed Mick at 9 on bet 365 and laid at 7 on Betdaq
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Laid McCarthy at odds of 6 and hes back up to 8. Not much money on the market so any bets are going to make the odds swing - someone on a chat thread on Betfair was tipping McCarthy so it sounds like an attempt at a pump and dump (not enough interest in this market though I think). I could green out but not worth it - no way would he be in the running. Of the almost £20k on Betfair £8k is on Lambert. £20k is tiny - for example theres is £250k on the 17.20 at Hereford.
Please can someone explain to me in English what the hell all this means?!
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Me too, please. Someone I know was raving about Betfair because of this system and I just didn't get it, but I'd love to move over from Skybet - if I can get the hang of all this..
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Basically Betfair/Betdaq allow you to bet on something happening and also to bet on something not happening - in this case you can bet on Mick becoming the Villa manager and you can bet on Mick not becoming the Villa manager. If you can find a difference in the odds for backing Mick and backing against Mick (called laying) you can make guaranteed money i.e. whatever happens you will earn a profit.
So I backed Mick for £10 at odds of 9 at Bet 365 and if Mick is appointed I win £10 x 9 = £90, profit of £80
I then layed Mick for £12.90 at odds of 7 at Betdaq and if Mick is appointed I lose £12.90 x 7 minus my stake = £77.40
So I make a profit of £2.60
If the opposite happens and Mick is not appointed then I lose my £10 stake at Bet365 BUT win back my stake at Betdaq of £12.90.
So I make a profit of £2.90 (less commission which you pay on the exchanges) which takes it down to £2.60 so I make the same amount on the trade whatever happens. Just google risk free gambling or arbitrage sports.
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seems a lot of messing around for such small returns....bit like AM's game plan
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What you have to bear in mind is that there are rampers employed to place money to manipulate the market. Conventional betting where you lay (offer) or take the odds has clearly defined sides. Betfair betting has layers on one end of the see saw and takers on the other end with players attempting to move the fulcrum.
I suspect that there are rampers at work trying to gets bets on McCarthy.
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Fcuk knows what the hell you're all on about with your laying nonsense. I simply walked into William Hill, put a tenner on Di Matteo and will pop back in next week to collect my £150. Simples.
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There are no end of rampers on the betting forums just trying to move the market and green up - I remember last year when Bob Bradley went odds on, there was no credible source just some bloke called meatloaf talking shit on betfair.
If you can see through the bullshit there are annual opportunities backing and laying the likes of David Moyes, Jurgen Klinsman and Rafa Benitez expect all three to contract in price at some point and then drift like bad odours once talksport and everyone else in the media realise its a hoax. Be warned though it only takes a Mcleish to wipe out weeks of hard work in this game and leave you penniless. On that basis I would not be laying Mad Mick for massive amounts unless you can sport a decent arb like McGraths dry cleaning!
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For what it's worth, the big mover on the Betfair market over the last few hours is Rrrrrroberto Martinez, whose odds had drifted to about 18, and has now come in again to 4.3 (you can arb that at several places, but there's not much liquidity at Betfair). Lambert is still the favourite, but has drifted to 3.45 from around evens.
It's something of a small surprise to me that Brendan Rodgers hasn't attracted much interest at all.
There's an arb current available on Kevin Mac - Paddy Power 26 and there's a bit of money available to lay at Betfair at 15.
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Paddy's are only accepting bets of a couple of quid on K Mac and you're right re liquidity - lot more money being staked on Liv manager
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Blimey - had OGS backed on betfair at 7's and just had my lay matched at 3's :o
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I'm laying OGS at 1.8
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My heart says "madness" but my head says "sensible".
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Looks like a few people lumped on OGS thanks to thetrees's planespottery earlier today at upwards of 30-1.
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Finally drifted out enough for me to green up, was going to back OGS at 4.5 but phone lost signal and I missed it. Back in to 2.4 now.
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Will be able to green out on Lambert now due to OGS news - backed at 7's and now down to 4 but not much liquidity - think ill hang on a bit
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My quid on Klinsmann at 50/1 looks good now.
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Sticking my profit on OGS at 6.0
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Get your money on Di Matteo before Chelsea lose tonight.
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Lay off Guardiola, Murinho, Daglish, etc
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None of those are available to lay, aftab.
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Good job I was at the computer then. I'd been backing him over the last few days, had to lay it back at 4.4, 5.0 when Kendrick's tweet came out.
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I moved a few quid onto Lambert on a whim the other day. It's looking like a prudent move now
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i've got my money down on 7 different managers over the last week, all taken at really good odds.
as it stands right now i dont think any of them will come in to save my bacon, but you never know
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Since this is taking a while I've had to do a spreadsheet to keep track of my various backs/lays - all green across the board but starting to tie up a bit on Betfair/Betdaq. Had a good arb on Martinez (Sky/Betdaq) but they'd only let me put £6 on and the odds immediately shortened - can't be much money on with Sky if my £6 can swing the odds - reakon if enough of us got together we could create a favourite within minutes!!!!!
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I backed that pizza guy, avb, Poyet and Solksjaer over the weekend. Layed KMac, Holloway, Benitez and Lambert. I'm gonna have my fingers burnt I'm afraid. :)
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I was counting my money expecting OGS to be named manager by now. Haven't done anything since Tuesday.
I don't even know which thread to read to find out the latest.
Harrrumph.
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Had a good arb on Martinez
Dirty bastard.
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£10 on Simon Grayson and £10 on Claudio Ranieri.
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Market mover of the day - Glenn Hoddle.
12/1 at William Hill
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the thing i dont get about bet fair is this
someone like Bielsa was 1000/1 earlier today, fair enough there isnt probably much chance of it happening, but why would anyone tie up £1000 of there own money to earn £1, it just doesnt make sense,
(by the way if a mirracle happens and it is Bielsa i am £7000 up )
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I might be making the same mistake as last year (and Villa might be) but I just can't see Lambert being appointed at just under 1.5 I've laid off and greened up on the field. Norwich will issue a Dave Whelan style statement tomorrow suggesting he's holding out for a big club and he'll drift out again.
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FFS!!!
For the last time!!!:
Computer algorithms that constantly adjust bookmakers' prices in response to monies staked by the betting public in order to limit the Bookmaker's financial exposure....
...know fuck all about football!!!