Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: Lambert and Payne on April 16, 2011, 05:11:48 PM
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5 games left and 7 points above 18th place, are we safe or are we counting our chickens? It's the Villa and all know what can happen...
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Yes
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Yes, 40 points with 5 games left and three of them at home. What's more we're playing some decent stuff with our best players all in form and a fully fit squad to pick from.
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Yes.
If we get relegated from this position now we deserve to be sent straight to the Conference.
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One huge massive thank fucking YES
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Well not mathematically but I think the confidence from back to back wins and the 6 points will make a massive difference now. I think we will stuff stoke and Wigan and finish in top 8. And two weeks ago i was seriously worried about going down
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Yes we are
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No, not safe yet, need one more win to secure it for me. And that'll come at home to Wigan or Stoke.
I just had a go on predictor and it's still all incredibly topsy-turvy; we just happen to be at the top of the top of the "Could still go down" list. With tough games such as West Brom away, Arsenal away, Liverpool home, and perhaps even Stoke at home; nothing is set in stone yet. Though saying that - today was a massive win for us, and I believe we will stay up, but I hope the lads know there is still plenty of work left to do.
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Even if we were to lose our final five games I think we'd still stay up. West Ham and Blackpool look shot after today, can 't see them making up 8 or 9 points. As it is, play like we did today and we can crack on and beat Stoke, Wigan and the Baggies, maybe even Liverpool on the last today and finish eighth.
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Do you see us beating Stoke, there having a very good season and aren't an easy team to beat, at the start of the season this was one of those we should be winning games. West Brom i see us winning actually, we dont generally beat Wigan at home
I do think we'll be safe, but its not definate yet. Win next week and we will be
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I've thought 38 points for weeks, blackpool, wigan, blackburn and wolves are all really weak can't see any of them getting many points from here.
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I'd be shitting myself right now if I was a Sunderland fan. 1 point from 9 games is it now?
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Not yet, cigars in the humidor !
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The ''we never beat Wigan at home'' argument is not really valid though is it? It's a different team/and (or) manager every year we play them.
We're above them in the table, we've already beaten them away, there's no reason why we shouldn't go into that game confident of getting three points regardless of what happened 18 months or 3 years ago.
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Mathematically we're not but i think we are now. Would take a major revival from some of those teams still down there for them to overhaul us now. Blackburn and Sunderland are in horrendous form, WHam have a particularly nasty run of games coming up. I still think Wolves will stay up based on their experience last year and they seem to have a bit of grit about them when they're in the mood.
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It's as much about confidence and spirit at this time of the season as it is about points on the board. We've got 40 points, but we are also growing in strength mentally, whereas clubs like Blackpool, West Ham and Blackburn are literally shitting themselves. Wolves, I thought would get out, but last weeks loss will really hurt them.
Are we safe. Yes, absolutely.
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Safe now and i'd be chuffed with a top 10 position.
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Fuck yeah!
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Yes mate, it's not time to take the foot off the pedal but honestly I think were good. A strong end to the season and a squad overhaul and I might well be looking forward to next season.....
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Yeah think we're safe as now mate. Never been out the EPL and shouldn't start now!
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Just about. 3 points would seal it I would think but we are just about there...
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Do you see us beating Stoke, there having a very good season and aren't an easy team to beat, at the start of the season this was one of those we should be winning games. West Brom i see us winning actually, we dont generally beat Wigan at home
I do think we'll be safe, but its not definate yet. Win next week and we will be
We have two more points than Stoke, so it's not that good a season and their away form is shocking
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7 points between us and 18th place but a lot of clubs.
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No.
But get a draw against Stoke and it is all but guaranteed.
Win and 7th is on the cards.
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Hell yeah, let's start looking up and finish the season strong
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Not mathematically safe but realistically a lot of teams now at the bottom have to play each other so even if we lose the last 5 (which we won't) I think we'd stay up. We're on a roll now and could see us winning the next 3 anyway
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We are safe as far as I'm concerned and hopefully we can have a strong finish and consolidate a top 10 finish, maybe even try for 8th, it's been a long season and if we finish top 10 after all the problems it will be an achievement.
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we are not safe mathematically, but I think we are in reality.
I think the pressure is off the players and the fans now, and next week we will give Stoke a real good tonking.
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The ''we never beat Wigan at home'' argument is not really valid though is it? It's a different team/and (or) manager every year we play them.
We're above them in the table, we've already beaten them away, there's no reason why we shouldn't go into that game confident of getting three points regardless of what happened 18 months or 3 years ago.
It might be a different manager and players as far as we're concerned with our turnover, but theirs has been relatively settled outfit over the past few years. Most of the players in that Wigan side have good memories of coming to VP and getting a positive result.
Sometimes it can just be an anomaly, an otherwise poor side consistently getting good results against a better team. It can be a psychological thing as well though; for our lot it'll pray on the mind that they haven't beaten Wigan at VP, for them they might actually look forward to the fixture more than you'd usually expect.
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the Newcastle match imho meant we were safe
today was the icing on top of the cherry that was already on the icing
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im sure wa are safe and furthermore, now confidence is coming back I think we will give someone a spanking
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I'd be shitting myself right now if I was a Sunderland fan. 1 point from 9 games is it now?
Yep. We've screwed them over big time by taking Bent off them.
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The ''we never beat Wigan at home'' argument is not really valid though is it? It's a different team/and (or) manager every year we play them.
We're above them in the table, we've already beaten them away, there's no reason why we shouldn't go into that game confident of getting three points regardless of what happened 18 months or 3 years ago.
It might be a different manager and players as far as we're concerned with our turnover, but theirs has been relatively settled outfit over the past few years. Most of the players in that Wigan side have good memories of coming to VP and getting a positive result.
Sometimes it can just be an anomaly, an otherwise poor side consistently getting good results against a better team. It can be a psychological thing as well though; for our lot it'll pray on the mind that they haven't beaten Wigan at VP, for them they might actually look forward to the fixture more than you'd usually expect.
We need Lamptey back for the Wigan at home. 5-0 win, job done.
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Most of the Mackems fans I've met over the years have generally been sound. But I must say that for some of the nonsense that was vomited out about them being on a par or (even more laughably) bigger than us around that time, I wouldn't shed a tear if they perish.
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mathimatically nope. realistically, yeah of course we are
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I always thought two wins would be enough and we've now got those wins I craved. We'd have to be a right bunch of cack to go down now.
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We'll be fine now.
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I'd like to say yes, but don't want to count those chickens just yet.
Considering recent performances/results, games against 3 relegation rivals, and the fact we'd have to be overtaken by 9 teams to go down its unlikely to happen. But until we've got 44 points on the board I'm not going to relax and start the celebrations, as stranger things have happened.
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41 i reckon is the safety point. I reckon we'll get 1 point between now and the end of season
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I am still counting the chickens. But yes It looks MUCH better.
But until they hatch the champagne/beers are on ice.
There are too many bad eggs elsewhere.
ie: probably
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hope i dont jinx us but yes we are safe!
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I can now see us winning the next three. Pressure is off, players will be more relaxed and we'll play well.
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Gabby's goal has immense impact. It has probably ensured our safety. We'd have to completely fuck it up, and have most of the sides do very well to drag us down now.
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Not quite. Another win should see us safe.
I don't want us to be looking back and see if we're 'safe' or not, I want us to propell into 8th position now and actually have some consistency going. Not a couple of good games then revert back to shit.
If we can keep this consistency going and end up finishing 8th I think majority of Villa fans would be pleased with that. Finishing off a bad season on a high note.
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I haven't worked it out, but with so many games between the bottom teams it would be interesting to see if it is even possible for 9 of them to overtake us, as would be necessary for us to go down.
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aye. gotta remember wolves, blose, stoke, fulham, newcastle have a game in hand though. still think we're safe barring a disaster.
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we're safe. If only there was still an intertoto cup so we could have a chance of getting into europe. Hopefully GH can keep us in the top half of the table now. I think he may have finally won the battle with the trouble makers and it's all uphill from here.
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I thought after Newcastle that we needed four more points.
That still feels right to me - though I'll be shocked if we go down from here.
Either way, we need to keep up the good work of the last two games and build some momentoum to make VP a happy place over the summer.
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I have voted no.
I dont think we are safe yet, we have still got 5 very tricky games win 1 and draw 2 before liverpool and arsenal should see us safe but we should be aiming for 3 wins.
Stoke and wigan could be the potential banana skins, loose them and we are right back in it if the other teams win there games in hand.
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We're not mathematically safe, but it would take one monumental f*ck-up to get relegated now.
It has worked out well to have Stoke up next - they'll either have their minds on the Cup Final or still be deflated from losing the semi-final. Either way I can see us winning and 43 points will be more than enough.
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Yes
Blackpool, Blackburn, Sunderland, West Ham, Wolves are in worse form than us. We'll beat Stoke & West Brom and everything will be sound we'll overtake Bolton ;)
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We've only lost 2 of the last 8, there's no reason to believe that we're suddenly going to implode. When you look at our front 3 (Young, Downing, Bent) they are better that anything anyone else has and they're all playing well.
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I agree Chris, I thought our front 3 were excellent yesterday
Nightmare for any defence
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Yes, we're safe which is a nice feeling.
Looking at the table, from here we should be finishing around the bottom of our own league within a league (8th and above).
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Yes, we will safely finish in the top half of the table. Was that the question?
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4 more points required. I think we'll get 5 or 6. I'm reckoning on a win against Stoke (as i think their semi final will derail them in the league, either way) and draws against Liverpool and Wigan, maybe a draw at the Albion, although they are generally looking good at the mo. Defeat at Arsenal.
So yes, we can't possibly cock it up now.
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Yes, but its because the likes of Blackpool are in freefall, rather than the slow improvement of Villa
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I honestly think the team will only be looking above them now to draw in as many of the teams above us as they can because they'll believe their better than all but 5 or 6 of them.
I think they'll play with freedom and we'll see some good, expansive stuff.
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41 i reckon is the safety point. I reckon we'll get 1 point between now and the end of season
Such optimism greg? i reckon we will get 10 more points and finish 8th!
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Will be interesting to hear what those who were guaranteeing relegation under GH are thinking now. A dramatic shifting of the goalposts is going to take place on that point I would imagine.
And yes, we're safe, with a pretty respectable upper-mid table final position to boot.
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I guess, we're sort of safe at the moment. But I think after one more win, we're officially safe. So I voted no. The points separating the teams at the bottom half of the table is still pretty tight.
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In all realms other than the purely theoretical, we are safe.
We will win more than one of the remaining games. In at least one of them, we will give somebody a sound thumping. We will also probably get unexpectedly thumped in another game.
Anybody interested in spread betting is slavering at the prospects of total goals scored if the bookmakers don't wise up.
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After such a miserable season I am not going to believe we are safe until we are mathematically so.
The last 3 games have probably given us enough breathing space but would like to see another couple of wins.
If the players start to believe we are already safe then we may well find ourselves right back in it so let's work on the basis we need to keep winning and we might even end up Top 6 or 7!
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Yes, probably, but should we still get Houllier out, especially if Moyes needs a new challenge?
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As I see it we only need 2 draws from the last 5 games. Many of the teams down there are a) shit and b) playing others in similar positions so by drawing with the likes of Wigan/Olbeeyun etc will use up another of their remaining games without catching us. I'm 99.9% sure we are safe as it is but 2 more points and we can get on with looking for a new Manager.
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As I said earlier in the season, if we stay up(which we will) Houllier deserves the chance to have a summer and a preseason in the job. Then judge him when he's had that time.
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Start thinking about days on the beach. What date do they announce the 2011/12 fixtures ?
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As much as i want to say yes, the way this season has gone, i'm going to say no.
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We are safe. We will not go down. I'd be prepared to flick the vs at fate himself tbh.
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We are safe it would take some fairly unlikely scenarios for us to go down frome here, starting with us losing all of our remaining games and some very freaky results elsewhere.
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Will be interesting to hear what those who were guaranteeing relegation under GH are thinking now. A dramatic shifting of the goalposts is going to take place on that point I would imagine..
Well as someone who started to believe that relegation was a distinct possibility, I'll tell you what I think: we'll have survived despite Houllier, not because of him. It is perhaps a debate for the moment that the final whistle sounds at Arsenal in a few weeks time, but regardless of where we finish in the table, I don't want him in the manager's office come the beginning of next season.
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Yes, the lads can get the Kuoni brochures out down BH today
Or is today a day off ?
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Will be interesting to hear what those who were guaranteeing relegation under GH are thinking now. A dramatic shifting of the goalposts is going to take place on that point I would imagine..
Well as someone who started to believe that relegation was a distinct possibility, I'll tell you what I think: we'll have survived despite Houllier, not because of him. It is perhaps a debate for the moment that the final whistle sounds at Arsenal in a few weeks time, but regardless of where we finish in the table, I don't want him in the manager's office come the beginning of next season.
Did we sign the best centre forward possible "in spite of him" ?
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I'm certain that, come May, I'll be on my boat off the coast of Kos relaxing and occasionally turning thought towards the rebuilding this summer and the renewed assault of the top places again next season.
And I've no problem if its Houllier plotting it. In fact, unless an outstanding alternative is available, I hope he is.
I think we're in for a whirlwind pre season with more comings and goings than Jordan's bedroom.
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Will be interesting to hear what those who were guaranteeing relegation under GH are thinking now. A dramatic shifting of the goalposts is going to take place on that point I would imagine..
Well as someone who started to believe that relegation was a distinct possibility, I'll tell you what I think: we'll have survived despite Houllier, not because of him. It is perhaps a debate for the moment that the final whistle sounds at Arsenal in a few weeks time, but regardless of where we finish in the table, I don't want him in the manager's office come the beginning of next season.
One thing that is 100% guaranteed assuming we stay up is that Houllier will be our manager. Lerner has said as much through Faulkner so I'm not sure why people think there is a chance of this happening.
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Will be interesting to hear what those who were guaranteeing relegation under GH are thinking now. A dramatic shifting of the goalposts is going to take place on that point I would imagine..
Well as someone who started to believe that relegation was a distinct possibility, I'll tell you what I think: we'll have survived despite Houllier, not because of him. It is perhaps a debate for the moment that the final whistle sounds at Arsenal in a few weeks time, but regardless of where we finish in the table, I don't want him in the manager's office come the beginning of next season.
One thing that is 100% guaranteed assuming we stay up is that Houllier will be our manager. Lerner has said as much through Faulkner so I'm not sure why people think there is a chance of this happening.
I disagree. The latest vote of confidence from Faulkner was a great deal less emphatic than a 100% guarantee he will be manager next season, "Our best chance of staying up is with Gerard".
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Will be interesting to hear what those who were guaranteeing relegation under GH are thinking now. A dramatic shifting of the goalposts is going to take place on that point I would imagine..
Well as someone who started to believe that relegation was a distinct possibility, I'll tell you what I think: we'll have survived despite Houllier, not because of him. It is perhaps a debate for the moment that the final whistle sounds at Arsenal in a few weeks time, but regardless of where we finish in the table, I don't want him in the manager's office come the beginning of next season.
Did we sign the best centre forward possible "in spite of him" ?
Yes.
This is now going over old ground, but I reckon that when Houllier was appointed the last thing that Randy envisaged doing in January was forking out £18million on one player. However, when you're staring into the financial abyss that relegation would bring, it was a punt that needed to be made. So in effect it was Houllier's poor record since his appointment that made the signing necessary.
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Will be interesting to hear what those who were guaranteeing relegation under GH are thinking now. A dramatic shifting of the goalposts is going to take place on that point I would imagine..
Well as someone who started to believe that relegation was a distinct possibility, I'll tell you what I think: we'll have survived despite Houllier, not because of him. It is perhaps a debate for the moment that the final whistle sounds at Arsenal in a few weeks time, but regardless of where we finish in the table, I don't want him in the manager's office come the beginning of next season.
One thing that is 100% guaranteed assuming we stay up is that Houllier will be our manager. Lerner has said as much through Faulkner so I'm not sure why people think there is a chance of this happening.
I disagree. The latest vote of confidence from Faulkner was a great deal less emphatic than a 100% guarantee he will be manager next season, "Our best chance of staying up is with Gerard".
We'll have to agree to disagree. Accepting that we're not quite out of the woods yet, the board have held their nerve while we have all been panicking and wringing our hands about the manager. There is no way they will make a change in the Summer unless Houllier decides he doesn't want it.
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Will be interesting to hear what those who were guaranteeing relegation under GH are thinking now. A dramatic shifting of the goalposts is going to take place on that point I would imagine..
Well as someone who started to believe that relegation was a distinct possibility, I'll tell you what I think: we'll have survived despite Houllier, not because of him. It is perhaps a debate for the moment that the final whistle sounds at Arsenal in a few weeks time, but regardless of where we finish in the table, I don't want him in the manager's office come the beginning of next season.
This would largely be mny opinion also. I thought at the time and I still think that Randy bought him, and of course us, out of trouble with Bent in January. If West Ham or Wolves had singed him would they be where they are now??
However, my position on him is softening as each win/good result roles in. I guess we need to look at it after 38 games and see where we are. Our squad is capable of top 6, of that I have no doubt, but given the injuries being top 8 is an acceptable result, so should he manage that I guess it's a case of getting there the hard way, but getitg there all the same!
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I just hope that the players either think we're not safe yet, and continue pushing hard for every point; or can see that, after what's been a pretty shitty season overall, a top 8 finish is within grasp with a good run-in.
I think we need another win before we can consider ourselves safe but with the games we've got coming up we should be more than capable of winning at least two; Stoke are always tough but they'll hopefully have an eye on Wembley and we can take advantage of that.
Just keep going, lads.
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Will be interesting to hear what those who were guaranteeing relegation under GH are thinking now. A dramatic shifting of the goalposts is going to take place on that point I would imagine..
Well as someone who started to believe that relegation was a distinct possibility, I'll tell you what I think: we'll have survived despite Houllier, not because of him. It is perhaps a debate for the moment that the final whistle sounds at Arsenal in a few weeks time, but regardless of where we finish in the table, I don't want him in the manager's office come the beginning of next season.
Did we sign the best centre forward possible "in spite of him" ?
Yes.
This is now going over old ground, but I reckon that when Houllier was appointed the last thing that Randy envisaged doing in January was forking out £18million on one player. However, when you're staring into the financial abyss that relegation would bring, it was a punt that needed to be made. So in effect it was Houllier's poor record since his appointment that made the signing necessary.
No, I disagree completely.
I think one of, if not THE first things Houllier said when he assessed the squad and reported to Randy was "look, this team will struggle without a finisher." and Randy provided the funds for one. MON could have bought Bent at any time I reckon (at the expense of another player or two perhaps), but didn't. And we needed Bent during all of MONs tenure. It would have made a massive difference.
Houllier DID sign him. That's the difference. Yes, it was more or less a no brainer but it still evaded MON's brain with supernatural dexterity.
MONs inabilty to buy a top striker made the signing a necessity.
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Absolutely. Obvious or not, if we start downgrading Houllier's decision to sign Bent, we're being ridiculously harsh. He selected him, got the backing of the board to make the signing, convinced the player to come. And all those pundits questioning Villa's decision to sign him have gone very very quiet now: 6 goals in 11 games (which could have been 8 in 11 were it not for two borderline decisions).
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Someone made a great posting at time saying that the signing of Bent was Randy investing in Villa, not Randy investing in Houllier.
I tend to agree with that statement.
I too have softened towards Houllier with each good result.
I still not sure though whether he is best man for us in the long run, but do we really want to go through another summer of upheaveal with another new manager having to come in, assess the squad etc etc.
Maybe continuity is what we need.
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Although I agree you can't try and take credit for the Bent signing away from Gezza, the simple fact is it wasn't a hard decision to make. One of the top strikers in the league - who's say no? What many of us were expecting was little known overseas players who'd come in and do well, which is a bracket you could maybe put Makoun in. Where I think the credit does need to be given for Bent is to the club overall, and that includes the manager, for the ambition and ability to put a deal like that together in the slow January window, especially when you consider where we were in the league.
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Although I agree you can't try and take credit for the Bent signing away from Gezza, the simple fact is it wasn't a hard decision to make. One of the top strikers in the league - who's say no? What many of us were expecting was little known overseas players who'd come in and do well, which is a bracket you could maybe put Makoun in. Where I think the credit does need to be given for Bent is to the club overall, and that includes the manager, for the ambition and ability to put a deal like that together in the slow January window, especially when you consider where we were in the league.
And also to do it without any fuss, and with hardly anyone knowing until the deal was virtually done.
Incidentally, we're 125/1 to go down if anyone's still worried.
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I still think the Bent signing was from a budget allocated to be spent in the upcoming summer. It was brought forward because of the position we were in. I'd be surprised if we spend anywhere near that amount in the summer.
Was is worrying is what would have happened if Bent had said no to us!
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Yes, 40 points with 5 games left and three of them at home. What's more we're playing some decent stuff with our best players all in form and a fully fit squad to pick from.
Agree with this but I'd just like to have 1 more win to be perfectly comfortable meaning I can fully relax.
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1 more win should do it and I can put this whole sorry season to bed.
I still do not want GH in charge next season, he can move upstairs if he wants but I dont think I could handle another season of misery and not even beating THE SHIT once.
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We are in the results business so i've softened towards Houllier over the last few weeks (fickle me) but I also think we need to see how the remainder of the season pans out re Houllier for next year.
If we were to pick up, say 10-12 points from or remaining fixtures then he deserves another crack at it next year and we can truley label this as that 'transitional' season.
Pick up 3-6 points from our remaining games, end with a whimper and I think it's up in the air about whether we should stick with him.
Although we may now be safe, results and how we play for the rest of the season is very important for GH and his standing with the Villa support imo. All to play for for GH still.
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1 more win should do it and I can put this whole sorry season to bed.
I still do not want GH in charge next season, he can move upstairs if he wants but I dont think I could handle another season of misery and not even beating THE SHIT once.
The best team many of us have seen lost twice to them in a season. Our worst-ever run against them was under our greatest manager.
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We showed a lot of character at the Sty in the league game. Its still 8 in a row since they beat us in the league.
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We're safe.
West Ham, Blackpool and Blackburn are three teams that won't reach 40 points this season and in any case their goal differences are worse than ours.
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We're safe.
West Ham, Blackpool and Blackburn are three teams that won't reach 40 points this season and in any case their goal differences are worse than ours.
I'd throw sunderland in there too
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I still think the Bent signing was from a budget allocated to be spent in the upcoming summer. It was brought forward because of the position we were in. I'd be surprised if we spend anywhere near that amount in the summer.
Was is worrying is what would have happened if Bent had said no to us!
Very unlikely. The Milner money was used to buy Bent.
Houllier will be backed again in the summer, I have no doubts at all.
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I still think the Bent signing was from a budget allocated to be spent in the upcoming summer. It was brought forward because of the position we were in. I'd be surprised if we spend anywhere near that amount in the summer.
Was is worrying is what would have happened if Bent had said no to us!
Very unlikely. The Milner money was used to buy Bent.
Houllier will be backed again in the summer, I have no doubts at all.
From summer 2009 when we last had a large influx of players, this is whats happened. And apologies if some of these fees are wrong or missed anyone:-
Out; Gardner (3.5m), Shorey (£1.5m), Milner (£16m + Ireland), Davies & Sidwell (nominal fees). Total = £21m
In; Ireland (part of Milner deal), Bent (£18m), Makoun (£8M). Total = £26m.
So that's a net spend in two years of £5m, or even if you take Bent as £24m then it's still only £11m, which is a very small amount compared to what Randy has shown he is willing to spend. I think we'll see a large spend this summer.
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I think Makoun was only £5m.
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Mathematically we still need 6 pts.
We could be safe next week if we beat the Baggies and other results go in our favour.
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Not worried anymore about relegation. Mathematically we should be but the collective fight appears to be back in the side.
We are OK this season.
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It would be nice to finish in the top half now but realistically I think we should be grateful we are all but safe.
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We still are not out of the woods yet.
3 more points should but that baby to bed.
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I reckon we'll draw at The Stripeyfilth, then beat Wigan.
That will pretty much ensure our safety, beyond all doubts.
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I reckon we'll draw at The Stripeyfilth, then beat Wigan.
That will pretty much ensure our safety, beyond all doubts.
I agree beat Wigan and that will do it we will be safe then.
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I reckon we'll draw at The Stripeyfilth, then beat Wigan.
That will pretty much ensure our safety, beyond all doubts.
That sounds about right.
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It must be almost impossible to work out the Maths on this one because there are so many teams involved. I had a look at who West Ham, Wigan and Wolves are playing in the remaining games and there are so many games between the relegation threatened teams that it makes it hard to see how Villa can go down. Wouldn't it take ALL the teams below us to do amazingly well, which isn't mathematically possible if they are playing each other?
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Can anyone see Wigan, Wolves and West Ham all winning 3 of their remaining games? We're safe.
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Yes we're almost safe.
So we could try and give a sense to this awful season and reach an Europa League spot playing an entertaining, attacking football wit the aim to win most games than it's possible from now on.
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I've just done the BBC Predictor thing and put us down to lose every game and the lowest place teams in the league to win. Even that only has us down by a couple of points, so to that end 1 win makes us mathematically safe, but it will take an unprecedented run of results across the whole of the league for that to happen.
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The fact that seemingly everyone below us can't pick up a win for love nor money is the reason I believe we are safe now.
Untill it's mathematical, I'll be a bit nervy - though it would take one monumental fuck up for us to go down now.
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We were safe after beating Newcastle IMO. Not mathematically, but that win was the break we needed to push on, and we have done. Points wise I think the win at West Ham sealed it. So to answer the question; Yes.
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Lifted this from VT:
Blackpool got 4 games, two of them away at United and Spurs. Stoke and Bolton at home and their home form is horrific. (7 behind)
West Ham 9 points behind got United and Man City away, after that 3 winnable games but very likely to drop points in at least one of those games. Not to mention goal difference a lot worse.
Wigan (7 behind) 4 games left, including ourselves and Everton, can't see them picking up 8 points from 4 games (including beating us) which they would need given their poor GD.
Blackburn (6 behind) got United and City away still. Would need to win 2 out of (Bolton at home, West Ham/Wolves away)..
and that's with us losing all our games.
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We were safe after beating Newcastle IMO. Not mathematically, but that win was the break we needed to push on, and we have done. Points wise I think the win at West Ham sealed it. So to answer the question; Yes.
I was going to pretty much write this word for word.
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We're safe now :)
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We can secure survival next week if:
We beat West Brom and West Ham fail to beat Man City and Wigan lose to Everton and Blackpool lose to Stoke.
Although if Wigan and Blackpool get a point with our better GD we would all but be safe as they would only be able to get 44 points and that what we would be on if we beat the Baggies
But I cannot see 3 teams not getting to 41 points.
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We're safe.
West Ham, Blackpool and Blackburn are three teams that won't reach 40 points this season and in any case their goal differences are worse than ours.
I'd throw sunderland in there too
Sunderland are now above us on goal difference.
Nothing's changed, we're still safe.
I'd like us to finish top half even if it would be a flattering final league position.
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We're safe.
West Ham, Blackpool and Blackburn are three teams that won't reach 40 points this season and in any case their goal differences are worse than ours.
I'd throw sunderland in there too
Sunderland are now above us on goal difference.
Nothing's changed, we're still safe.
I'd like us to finish top half even if it would be a flattering final league position.
The table never lies.
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We're safe.
West Ham, Blackpool and Blackburn are three teams that won't reach 40 points this season and in any case their goal differences are worse than ours.
I'd throw sunderland in there too
Sunderland are now above us on goal difference.
Nothing's changed, we're still safe.
I'd like us to finish top half even if it would be a flattering final league position.
The table never lies.
Too right - the best team always wins it, the worst three go down, and the 10th best finishes 10th. That's why William McGregor's leagues are used the world over, and that's why we won it 30 years ago next Monday.
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the table never lies...well, I'm glad it did for Darren Bent. When he signed for us he said that one of the reasons was we were in a "false position"!!!
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the table never lies...well, I'm glad it did for Darren Bent. When he signed for us he said that one of the reasons was we were in a "false position"!!!
What people mean is the table never lies at the end of the season. When everybody has played everybody else home and away, just as McGregor intended.
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We're safe now :)
Are we ? All of a sudden the Wigan game takes on a bit more meaning
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It comes to something when we are worried about getting a result at home to Wigan. But if we are honest thats what we are all thinking.
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The Wigan game is huge. Our last 2 fixtures are eminently loseable at the best of times so given the complete lack of faith evryone at the club has in GMac (quite rightly) I think we can chalk up 0 points from those games. This means if Wigan keep up the freaky hold they have on us at home we may well be finishing the season with 41 points.
I don't think Blackpool will make it. A lot depends on Wolves and West Ham's results today. If they both lose then it's going to be uphill for them too. Of course if Wigan beat us next week then they'll only be 3 points behind us with West Ham and Stoke to go. Blackburn and SHA are only 3 points behind us already and you'd think they'd manage to pick up one win. Indeed with Blackburn playing Wolves, West Ham and Man U maybe wanting them to have a storming end to the season is the order of the day, certainly preferrable to wanting SHA to win any game ever.
So it would take a rather unfortunate series of events but my real worry is our role in it, in that a couple of good results will see us fine but I have serious doubts if we can acheive that as we hobble to the end of this horrible nightmare of a season.
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If we all play our part and turn Villa Park into a cauldron next week get that Wigan monkey off our back then we can all breathe a sigh of relief
We are going to have to defend properly as Wigan have some players who can hurt you
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The only way we can go down is if we lose ALL of our games, and out of the following 4 teams 2 of them win ALL of their games and all by a goal margin of 2 goals or more -
Blackpool (Tottenham A, Bolton H, Man Utd A)
Wolves (Blues A, West Brom H, Sunderland A, Blackburn H)
Wigan (Villa A, West Ham H, Stoke A)
West Ham (Man City A, Blackburn H, Wigan A, Sunderland H)
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Next Saturday is massive. To be honest, a draw will do. Then again a clean sheet would be a bloody start.
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I spent an hour last night trying to make us go down and I could not do it unless the bottom 4 win games they are not expect to win like West Ham beating City and Blackpool beating United.
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Then again a clean sheet would be a bloody start.
Extremely unlikely.
Although, recalling Cuellar might help, he's far better than fatty Dunne.
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Assume wolves and west ham win today than there will be four teams on played 35 with 35 points. Other than the two mentioned Wigan and Blackpool. For us to go down now these teams will have to get 7 ponits each from 3 games and us to lose all 3. This is very very unlikey.
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Wolves have drawn and West Ham will get smashed into next week.
We're already safe given who the bottom four have to play and how shit they are. I don't think we'll lose to Wigan, in fact, its about time we beat them at home.
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Unless West Ham pull off a shock against Man City its virtually imposssible to go down after those long ball artists drew today.
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Points to mathematically be safe - 4
As it stands - 01/05/2011 - 2.03pm
Pl GD Pts
10. Stoke 35 -3 43
11. West Brom 35 -14 43
12. Newcastle 35 0 41
13. Aston Villa 35 -13 41
14. Sunderland 35 -13 41
15. Birmingham 35 -17 39
16. Blackburn 35 -14 38
17. Blackpool 35 -22 35
------------------------------------------
18. Wigan 35 -23 35
19. Wolves 35 -23 34
20. West Ham 34 -22 32
Sunday, 1 May 2011
Man City v West Ham
Saturday, 7 May 2011
Aston Villa v Wigan
Bolton v Sunderland
Newcastle v Birmingham
West Ham v Blackburn
Tottenham v Blackpool
Sunday, 8 May 2011
Wolverhampton v West Brom
Stoke v Arsenal
Man Utd v Chelsea
Villa are on 41 points, max points possible
Blackpool - 44
Wigan - 44
West Ham - 44
Wolves - 43
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I spent an hour last night trying to make us go down and I could not do it unless the bottom 4 win games they are not expect to win like West Ham beating City and Blackpool beating United.
I did the BBC predictor this morning and assumed we lost each game. Even allowing Blackpool to get some points at WHL and TTOD, we stay up by one point. Wigan finish 11th, Spurs 6th.
(I went for 1-1 today at Small Heath and 3-0 to Man City)
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A win against Wigan will make us certainly safe no doubts about that.
Instead of making it a nervous finish to the season we could just comletely elimnate any fears of going down with a win next week. A draw will be worthless, it's time to bounce back from a couple of poor results, lets finish this disappointing season on a somewhat high.
Although it's really important to win next week I don't quite understand why people think we've already lost the last 2 matches. Arsenal certainly aren't 'invincible' at home this, lots of teams, even of less quality than us have gone there and got some sort of a result. Liverpool at home is winnable game too. Of course both will be still tough games, but I wouldn't write both matches off already... I hope.
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It's been a great season. Wigan is a massive game and we're looking over our shoulders at how Blackpool are doing. Can't wait for the season ticket renewal to drop through the letterbox.
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Points to mathematically be safe - 4
As it stands - 01/05/2011 - 2.03pm
Pl GD Pts
10. Stoke 35 -3 43
11. West Brom 35 -14 43
12. Newcastle 35 0 41
13. Aston Villa 35 -13 41
14. Sunderland 35 -13 41
15. Birmingham 35 -17 39
16. Blackburn 35 -14 38
17. Blackpool 35 -22 35
------------------------------------------
18. Wigan 35 -23 35
19. Wolves 35 -23 34
20. West Ham 34 -22 32
Sunday, 1 May 2011
Man City v West Ham
Saturday, 7 May 2011
Aston Villa v Wigan
Bolton v Sunderland
Newcastle v Birmingham
West Ham v Blackburn
Tottenham v Blackpool
Sunday, 8 May 2011
Wolverhampton v West Brom
Stoke v Arsenal
Man Utd v Chelsea
Villa are on 41 points, max points possible
Blackpool - 44
Wigan - 44
West Ham - 44
Wolves - 43
Wigan and West Ham play each other so they both can't get to 44 points - if they draw their max is 42 (assuming West Ham beat Citeh today). If either wins, their max stays at 44, with the other's max 41. I think.
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It is unlikely we will go down but not impossible if we lose next week. If Wigan beat us they have two relatively easy and winnable games left against West Ham at home and Stoke who will have either just won or lost the FA Cup and possibly have some kind of hangover. They could therefore quite easily finish above us. Blackpool need to win two to get 41 points and have two tough away games left so I think it will be very hard for them to do that. Hammers look to have too much to do unless they spring a surprise at City today. Wolves last three games are also winnable but it is hard to imagine them winning all three. So we should be safe even if we lose all three, but please lets get a win next week so I can finally relax my fecking sphincter this season.
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Assume wolves and west ham win today than there will be four teams on played 35 with 35 points. Other than the two mentioned Wigan and Blackpool. For us to go down now these teams will have to get 7 ponits each from 3 games and us to lose all 3. This is very very unlikey.
This is The Villa you are talking about..all things are possible.
6th just wasn't good enough but fucking round with relegation as an alternative is...
Wondering if we can beat wigan to stay up..the humiliation of it all. Last week we were talking about being amongst the top end...gord how pathetic is that?
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It's not pathetic, it's was just a bit "knee jerk" (winky thing)
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Well there you are..a few steps nearer safety due to the opposition losing or drawing. WH can't catch us. Wolves need a miracle and we have to beat Wigan. simple but this is The Villa we're talking about..
Looks pretty safe now if we even draw against Wigan..for respect we need to beat them well.
sad that Wolves are in such a predicament.. the derbies were always the best in terms of emotional, and good natured, fan rivalry. Then that doesn't exist these days..not much anyway.
Depending on other teams failing is not how it should be!!!
"It's not pathetic, it's was just a bit "knee jerk" (winky thing)"
OK a bit harsh but now it is just a a release of breath in relief at nearly escaping thanks to the predicamant of others and nowt much to strive for other than not being 4th last. (winky thing)!
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You can get 150-1 on us going down, so i sugets those without a calculstor put some money on
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Dont West Ham have 3 easier games now ?
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I think we'll be OK but we're not safe yet.
If you want to sweat it out a bit just imagine WH and Blackpool are going to lose all of their games and will fill two of the spots. Now imagine that Wigan, Wolves and Blackburn all win their winnable games next week.
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It's been one of those seasons where we are destined to sweat all the way
It's called supporting Aston Villa
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Some of the bottom teams have to play each other, so they will take points off each other.
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Relegated teams will have 38 or less points.
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i did the predictor thing, its possible we go down but unlikely, even so we need at least a point vs Wigan
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We are not going down, no chance. 7 points clear of the drop zone with 3 games to play with a few teams between us and bottom three. No chance.
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We should be fine now
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This is not relevant.. we are still dependant on points lost by shite teams and we should not be associated with them; simple. Depending on others to lose is not the way it should be!
Still we will see the posts about survival..Villa are not a survival club..we ought to be challenging for Europe..minimum!
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This is not relevant.. we are still dependant on points lost by shite teams and we should not be associated with them; simple. Depending on others to lose is not the way it should be!
Still we will see the posts about survival..Villa are not a survival club..we ought to be challenging for Europe..minimum!
We're not depending on other clubs though.
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This is not relevant.. we are still dependant on points lost by shite teams and we should not be associated with them; simple. Depending on others to lose is not the way it should be!
Still we will see the posts about survival..Villa are not a survival club..we ought to be challenging for Europe..minimum!
We're not depending on other clubs though.
I think Brian was responding to the suggestion that we are fine now (even if we don't win any of our 3 remaining games). In that circumstance we are relying on other clubs results going our way.
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Time is on our side, thats the main thing now.
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This is not relevant.. we are still dependant on points lost by shite teams and we should not be associated with them; simple. Depending on others to lose is not the way it should be!
Still we will see the posts about survival..Villa are not a survival club..we ought to be challenging for Europe..minimum!
We're not depending on other clubs though.
I think Brian was responding to the suggestion that we are fine now (even if we don't win any of our 3 remaining games). In that circumstance we are relying on other clubs results going our way.
Precisely. The idea of struggling to remain safe is abhorrant to me.
The clubs below can't seem to even match our very moderate achievements this season and the more they fail to do so the safer we shall be.
I wanted an improved Villa to win all remaining matches but forlornly end up shrugging and accepting there will be another season now unless the several teams below have some sort of miracle revival which is a rarity when they are despondant and of low morale.
One point against Wigan will sort out any doubt. But what an awful situation to be in.
We need a clearout and a new start next season.
They circumstances are falling into place for us to do that.
Someone has get relegated but we should not even be here even remotely in the vicinity of the zone.
Finger pointing is futile. Accept we have been below expectation to shite this season and sort it out for the future otherwise it is taking the piss out of the largest most loyal fanbases in the country.
I always ruefully recall my Dad saying once 'They never came to see me when I was bad" ..so that's it..I happens sometime and you wonder why. Randy had better understand that attitude is challenging the fan base again.
We don't turn up to see goalless football against the likes of Wigan..
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The idea that we are worrying about playing Wigan at home tells you everything about how far we have stooped. Before we could put the results down to a bad day at the office, now we actually fear them.
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The idea that we are worrying about playing Wigan at home tells you everything about how far we have stooped. Before we could put the results down to a bad day at the office, now we actually fear them.
We've always been worried about playing Wigan at home, even in the (almost) glory days of MON.
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Well, I'm not worried about Wigan.
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The idea that we are worrying about playing Wigan at home tells you everything about how far we have stooped. Before we could put the results down to a bad day at the office, now we actually fear them.
I've literally worried about us playing everyone this season, from probably the Stoke away game onwards.
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I agree that one more point should do it but I have no confidence (with Gary Mac at the helm) of our ability to achieve that.
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I'm keeping my fingers crossed our goal difference will not be too affected over the final three games. If we lose each by an average of two or three goals, we might be in trouble.
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if we lose the last 3 games 10 nil we still wont go down
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There can be no excuses for beating a very poor Wigan team.
I'm expecting the crowd to inspire a 3-1 win.
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There can be no excuses for beating a very poor Wigan team.
And a 10 man West Brom ? With Gary Mac anything is possible .If we do need a point and it doesn't come from Wigan we're screwed
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Well, I'm not worried about Wigan.
I wasn't worried about Wolves, either.
That's the thing with this season, creditable performances where you wouldn't expect them (admittedly, not many of them), but quite a few utterly awful ones where you would expect us easily to pick up the points.
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For heavens sake we are not going down!!!
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I've literally worried about us playing everyone this season, from probably the Stoke away game onwards.
My abiding memory of this season will be of walking up Trinity Road before the game (and I mean "the game" in the sense of "pretty much all of them") with a knot the size of a football in my stomach, wracked with nervous tension that things are going to go to shit again.
I really can't wait for this season to end, so 3 points against Wigan and we can forget the final two matches
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if we lose the last 3 games 10 nil we still wont go down
That's what I believe too. I genuinely feel the bottom feeders are deeply unlikely to get enough points to catch us. Sadly, I think the noses are pretty much safe too as 39 points will be enough.
Those four teams at the bottom are really hapless looking to me and whilst some have easy run ins they do have to play one another.
Good job as I honestly don't see us picking up another point this season under McAllister.
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I tried to sit down with a pencil and paper and work out what combination of results would send us down. My mind went blank, I am so thick
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If we lose all 3
At least 2 of the following need to get the following points
Blackpool 7 (or 6 with a lot of goals for)
Wigan 7 (or 6 with a lot of goals for)
Wolves 7 with a lot of goals for (or all 9 from 3 games)
Wet Spam all 9 plus a lot of goals for
Plus Blackburn need 3+
And the dogs need a couple as well.
Beat Wigan and we are OK - none of this 1pt will do - it might not.
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I tried to sit down with a pencil and paper and work out what combination of results would send us down. My mind went blank, I am so thick
Yes, yes, but how many cocks have you drawn?
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This might sound daft, but for ages I've had a feeling we'll get something from Arsenal away. Don't ask me why, but I genuinely fancy us to get a point there!
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I think the 40 point mark will be enough to stay up. None of the bottom teams can string any results together and I don't see that changing.
Although Blose may be looking over their shoulder rather nervously. Remaining 3 games are Newcastle and Spudz away and an on form Fulham at home...quite conceivable they could pick up nothing from those...
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"I really can't wait for this season to end, so 3 points against Wigan and we can forget the final two matches"
All the games matter; all of them.
We ought not to be in this state.
Beat Wigan to be safe is sad in the extreme. We need to it is obvious. If we don't we are hopeless. We need to be them and Arsenal and Liverpool to go forward with hope and self-respect.
If the team think like all the have to do is get a result against Wigan then we have to get a new squad. It begins to look like the latter to me.
We are safe I think but it doesn't mean anything if the team stops trying!
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"I really can't wait for this season to end, so 3 points against Wigan and we can forget the final two matches"
All the games matter; all of them.
We ought not to be in this state.
Beat Wigan to be safe is sad in the extreme. We need to it is obvious. If we don't we are hopeless. We need to be them and Arsenal and Liverpool to go forward with hope and self-respect.
If the team think like all the have to do is get a result against Wigan then we have to get a new squad. It begins to look like the latter to me.
We are safe I think but it doesn't the team stops trying!
Of course it is sad to need to beat Wigan - it is most sad that we are not mathematically safe from relegation with three games left, though, so in the larger scheme of things, it doesn't really bother me what happens in the last two games assuming we beat Wigan.
I just want to be mathematically safe. Whether we finish 15th or 16th is neither here nor there compared to the disaster which relegation would have been, and an extra place in the table is in no way even going to begin to blunt the edges of such a horrible season.
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This might sound daft, but for ages I've had a feeling we'll get something from Arsenal away. Don't ask me why, but I genuinely fancy us to get a point there!
I thought the same before Houllier took ill. I actually think we'd have finished strongly if it hadn't happened.
Now though I'm not confident.
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But the fact that the other crap teams have to play each other... Does that makes some combinations of survivors impossible?
I have drawn a big cock with all jizz coming out the end
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I really can't call what's going to happen on Saturday, other than if we do win, we'll make bloody hard work of it.
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I want the season to end so I can stop being such a fretful old queen every saturday
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I want the season to end so I can stop being such a fretful old queen every saturday
Hang loose little dude, it's all gonna be fine.
I stopped fretting after West Ham. I even said to Bren when I saw him before the Stoke game that it was nice to be walking to the ground not feeling stressed.
Of course there are some weird combinations of results that could fuck it up but the fact that it's so difficult to work out means that isn't going to happen.
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I really want to be able to go to Arsenal next week and enjoy the last away game of the season and relax without worrying about other teams maybe catching us up, but still cursing the price of the beer.
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I want the season to end so I can stop being such a fretful old queen every saturday
Shame, you look smashing in that Angela Kelly yellow dress with matching top hat.
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This might sound daft, but for ages I've had a feeling we'll get something from Arsenal away. Don't ask me why, but I genuinely fancy us to get a point there!
Hallucinatory drugs?
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I want the season to end so I can stop being such a fretful old queen every saturday
Hang loose little dude, it's all gonna be fine.
I stopped fretting after West Ham. I even said to Bren when I saw him before the Stoke game that it was nice to be walking to the ground not feeling stressed.
Of course there are some weird combinations of results that could fuck it up but the fact that it's so difficult to work out means that isn't going to happen.
If Wigan beat us, Wolves beat West Brom and Blackburn beat West Ham, which doesn't seem too far-fetched, you won't have any difficulty working out the nightmare scenario.
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I havent checked it all out as it is far too complicated, but I dont think we can go down.
Most clubs below us have each other - I think it is either impossible, or would take some kind of ridiculous scenario for us to go down.
Put it this way - easy - Blackburn play Wolves - both are more than 6 points from us - so one of those cannot overtake us.
West Ham v blackburn - same
etc....etc....
And it is the same with the other clubs from what I can see.
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Anyway the dress was primrose, not yellow, Kevingage you knob.