Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: hawkeye on April 02, 2011, 10:05:25 PM
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I have been going through the run in, and the BBC predictor.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/predictor/default.stm
It looks like 40 could be enough, because there are so many games between the bottom clubs.
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So 40 points could be enough, but it might also not be enough? Glad that's cleared up then *winky*
On a serious note i'm not even going to try using the predictor, this season is just too weird. Take today, who would have fancied Blackburn and Wigan to get a point today or the Bitter Birds to beat the dippers?
I won't stop feeling nervous until we hit 45 points.
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We need to win two, maybe three to be sure.
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For me its wins we need to get enough points before arsenal & liverpool I don't want them to be must wins to stay up
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Well I've tried this and we will finish 9th, safe as houses.
Wigan 31pts, Blackpool 37pts and Brom 37pts all relegated.
Would I bet on it? No not likely, far too unpredictable this season.
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I just want this bloody season to be over with us retaining our premiership status.... It's been too painful.
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We need Blackpool to drop into the relegation zone I reckon...I think a couple of bad resutls for them could send them in a downward spiral they wouldn't recover from. We must beat Newcastle.
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Just done this and been generous to our rival bottom dwellers while being harsh on Villa. We finish with 42 points, thats with a draw at home to Newcastle but we only finish one out of the bottom three, funnily enough i had Fulham being dragged down. I was very generous to all our local rivals and they all finished above us.
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It is just more of the usual as far as i'm concerned.
We've been here before and gone down. Long while ago but we went down. Most under 40's fans forget or never experienced the shock of the drop.
Dead easy to screw it up by believing it can never happen to us..but it can!.
Saying we need 3 or 4 wins to be safe is tantamount to inviting relegation..It happens! The neighbours seem to be more steeled up for the prospect and it not happening, than us.
We need to win all the games or we are accepting capitulation..
when people say we just need 3-4 they are thinking the first 4..if we don't get the first four on the trot what happens then..panicccc!!...bigtime..
All games to end of season must be won..all of them..or we'll be desperate for points against Stoke and Wigan and then have Arsenal and Chelsea to scramble an unlikely point from and end up hoping for a favourable goal difference; which will not happen..horrible scenario ..we need to win them all games and the pressure needs to be applied to all concerned to achieve it..otherwise we accept our unpleasant fate and all the rest of the unpleasantness that goes with it..
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BBC predictor ??
So now my license fee is being given to some spotty faced postgraduate employed to formulate some shite which can show how my beloved Aston Villa can be ejected from dining at the top table after almost a quarter century !
I would rather see Jonathon Woss on £50 million a year, Brucie 'didnt he do well' given a 10 year rolling contract, and Michael Barrymore employed to present swimming programmes.
Who do I write to ? Is 'Points of View' still going ?
Shame on you BBC.
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Complete nonsense of course. But I had villa staying up on 42 points. Wolves, Blackburn and last placed Wigan going down. I actually think Blackpool will go down instead of Wolves.
I had us losing to Newcastle and West Ham, winning against stoke and Wigan, drawing at West Brom and v Liverpool, and losing at Arsenal.
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dunno. I reckon 41 could be the real safety line. the thing that worries me is our GD which is frankly shocking. We have to avoid taking a tonking in the remaining games. if it comes down to 40 points and there's 2 or 3 teams on it.......
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I was fairly negative in our results, only beating Newcastle at home and drawing with Stoke and Liverpool. Everything else was a loss. We stay up in 17th on 39 points and Wigan, Blackburn and Fulham go down. Houllier is then immediately ushered out of the door marked "sortie".
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I got us on 42 points and in 16 position.
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I think 38 points may be enough, but I think you'd like 43 to be sure.
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I had wigan wolves and blackburn going down with blackburn and wolves both on 37 (and wigan on 34). I then had blackpool just out of it on 38 and us 15th with 42.
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Next three games is where we can fight for our survival. As others have said, we can't be going into the last two games needing points.
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A win at Arsenal will save us and give us 41 points
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Complete nonsense of course. But I had villa staying up on 42 points. Wolves, Blackburn and last placed Wigan going down. I actually think Blackpool will go down instead of Wolves.
I had us losing to Newcastle and West Ham, winning against stoke and Wigan, drawing at West Brom and v Liverpool, and losing at Arsenal.
Almost the same - I had us on 14th with 41 points - the drop ? Blackpool, Blackburn and Wigan - three of my "local" games !
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A win at Arsenal will save us and give us 41 points
Why not win at Arsenal ? I predict they will need to beat us about 12-0 to keep their hopes of winning the title alive. In a panic they ditch their patient beautiful passing game, that one that is so much more beautiful than Barcelona or anything else in the whole history of the world, hoofing long balls into the box we catch them on the break and nick 3 points. ;D
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We can't under any circumstance lose at West Ham.
If we nick a point or even better three, then I don't think they'll reach 40 points given they've got Chelsea, Man city, Bolton and Wigan as their 4 away games so I can see their goal difference taking a battering there and they only have two home games left after us.
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I forgot to post that I did the predicter and was generous to our relegation rivals and harsh on ourselves but still has us finishing 16th lon 40 points having lost heavily to Arsenal and Liverpool. Fulham got dragged into the mire but I had Wigan, Wolves and Blackpool going down.
The point against Everton could be bigger than we realised yesterday.
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I had a go on the old Predictor thingy. Had us on 43 points and in 14th. I too was kind to teams (West Ham & Wolves escape) and Wigan, Blackpool and Blackburn go down. That said it is really a load of rubbish as you do not tend to go for unlikely results and this season has seen plenty of them.
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we need 9 points from the next 5 games to stay up.
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we need 9 points from the next 5 games to stay up.
And how many from the last two?
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we need 9 points from the next 5 games to stay up.
And how many from the last two?
won't matter, if we get those 9 points.
but i think we'll draw v liverpool and lose at arsenal.
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So we'll know by 7th May then? 11 points should be OK if we get them...scrambling for points against Liverpool and Arsenal will be nasty.
Newcastle Home 10/4 3
West Ham Away 16/4 1
Stoke Home 23/4 3
West Brom Away 30/4 1
Wigan Home 7/5 3
Arsenal away 15/5 1?
Liverpool Home 23/5 1?
Optimistic predictions but it must be possible.
Depends so much on the others not getting positive results now.
We can't afford to lose any games to be honest. The next 4-5 should be, have to be, wins or the tension will increase and we'll be in serious trouble.
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Thats very optimistic Brian, can't see how we'll go unbeaten between now and the end of the season. The problem we have, is the pressure the team are now under. Not sure how our players will cope
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we need 9 points from the next 5 games to stay up.
I'd go with that
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I'm a great believer in momentum in football and winning a game, or getting a good result, takes you into the next game on a high and increases your chances. it's one of the reasons Gezza's Man City cup team was such a bad decision as we were in decent form prior to that and it just killed our momentum dead and we've never got it back!
Beat Newcastle, which isn't beyond the realms of possibility, and we'd go into the West Ham game with less pressure and more confidence, which you'd hope would see us get at least a point. Then we'd have Stoke on the back of three unbeaten and be expecting a win.
It might mask the problems we have and I'd still want the manager to go, but I can see us putting a little mini run together up to Arsenal and that saving our collective arses!
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I have made a little shrine to Marcus Allback
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I've got us finishing 12th with 44 points. You can't say I'm not optimistic.
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With the current form of Sunderland I wouldn't discount them from the relegation fight just yet either.
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With the current form of Sunderland I wouldn't discount them from the relegation fight just yet either.
Sunderland supporter yesterday said exactly the same thing VS
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Looking at their fixtures too and they are going to have a big say in the relegation battle either way -
West Brom (h)
Birmingham (a)
Wigan (h)
Fulham (h)
Bolton (a)
Wolves (h)
West Ham (a)
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I'd say 7 or 8 points will be what we will need. I can see that coming from wins against Newcastle and Wigan and draws against Spam and either West Brom or Stoke.
Lose against Newcastle and we are well in it and it will have a bad effect upon morale of players and supporters. That is what worries me most as when at other points this season we have faced a game as critical for our ambitions we have turned in a piss poor performance like against Wolves and Sunderland.
I can definitely see Sunderland going down. Would be interesting if we stay up and they go down after our signing Bent. Not that I want that to happen as I like Sunderland.
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Here's my take on it:
(http://i53.tinypic.com/20j3d34.jpg)
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The fact that Sunderland have to play lots of teams at the bottom is a bit worrying. On paper you would be certain that Sunderland would beat all of them but Sunderland are on a terrible run and if you believe the form table and expect the trend there to continue they will lose them all.
The other wildcard is us. You cannot predict what will happen to us based on how we have been all season.
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The other wildcard is us. You cannot predict what will happen to us based on how we have been all season.
Although you can't, our ratio this season is 1.1 points per game (34 from 31). That, with a bit of rounding, would give us 8 points from the remaining 7 games and probably see us safe on 42.
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It's the "probably" that's the problem in my eyes. We don't how many points we're going to get, and no idea how many will be enough.
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Have read all the posts on this thread and the optimism is making me feel a bit better about our predicament.
Can't look any further than the next game and because we don't play until Sunday, the pressure may be greater than it already is.
I think we need 40/41 points minimum - so three teams need to get less than an average of a point per game from the last seven.
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It's the "probably" that's the problem in my eyes. We don't how many points we're going to get, and no idea how many will be enough.
7 games left and it will be tough there are a lot of games to be played yet, especially at the bottom of the table.
I'll go for 21 points from a possible 21 ::)
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I know for certain we'd go down if we didn't have Bent. Sooner or later Ash will have a match winning on his own type of performance as well.
And we might one game keep a clean sheet
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I know for certain we'd go down if we didn't have Bent.
I thought at the time Bent was effectively Randy buying Gezza out of the hole he had gotten us into. I still think it now!
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I know for certain we'd go down if we didn't have Bent. Sooner or later Ash will have a match winning on his own type of performance as well.
And we might one game keep a clean sheet
stop it with your crazy talk...
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I know for certain we'd go down if we didn't have Bent.
I thought at the time Bent was effectively Randy buying Gezza out of the hole he had gotten us into. I still think it now!
Its a shame we 're in the position we are. 2 years ago or even a season ago he could have fired us into top 4 on his own
He did fxxx all on Saturday except score............I love that in strikers ! Mind you the Holte End (and I speak as a Holte Ender) and the internet/armchair fans will hate him when he has a lean spell.'Lazy' etc etc can see it coming now.
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Not sure how many points will be needed, and based on whats been said so far on this thread, nor has anyone else! Could be 40, might not be!
Anybody thinking Newcastle might just let us take 3 points off them because they have nothing to play for might just want to cast their minds back to the day they went down two seasons ago. Think they may have just a little bit of revenge on their mind?
Lose that one, and we really truly will be in the thick stuff. And I know i'm just going to hate kicking off on Sunday knowing the results from the day before. Squeeky bum time.
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With the added pressure that we may be in the bottom 3 by the time we kick off
Hard to predict which villa team will turn up for this one
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Atleast both Wolves and Blackburn can't win on the last day.
It's still very tight down at the bottom but compared to a few other teams we'd be viewed to have some more 'favourable' fixtures although I don't view it like that because each game is going to be very difficult especially when we come up against relegation rivals.
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Was happy going into the Newcastle game with optimism until they pulled out a top performance. Though having watched the game Wolves missed three clear cut chances and there defence was awful. With the crowd buzzing and Bent well on form think we will still nick it .....
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It's funny looking back at such pessimism of only a few weeks ago. Only Brian Taylor's optimism (albeit tainted with tension) appears to be the only post close to reality.
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It's funny looking back at such pessimism of only a few weeks ago. Only Brian Taylor's optimism (albeit tainted with tension) appears to be the only post close to reality.
My post right behind you. 5th August says "with Bent right on form i think we will nick it" .....