Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: andyh on March 05, 2011, 12:02:11 PM
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It is generally considered that 40 points pretty much guarantees safety.
Given how tight the league is and how closely bunched most teams are, I reckon its going to take closer to 45 points this season.
That should keep a team out of the bottom 3.
What do you think ? About right, safe with less, or more points required ?
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70.
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71
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1 more than whoever finishes in 18th place gets.
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42 - 45.
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42
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About 15 less than a European spot. 41 will do it, 56 could see us in front of the bindippers. There are easily 3 worse teams than us but are there many better outside the top 5? I'm not sure, today will tell us a lot I think.
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43
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It's really tight this year and every time it looks like a team's cast adrift they start picking up points. I think we may need 43 to be sure
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If I remember correctly, West Ham were relegated with 42 points. It is not inconceivable that someone is relegated with even more this season. I wouldn't want to go in to the final 2 games still needing results to go our way.
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If I remember correctly, West Ham were relegated with 42 points. It is not inconceivable that someone is relegated with even more this season. I wouldn't want to go in to the final 2 games still needing results to go our way.
Going back a bit further Norwich went down with 43 points. In both cases I think we ended up just above the relegation zone. Like you I'd like to get enough points sooner rather than later and not have to depend on results in our last 2 games against Arsenal and Liverpool
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Norwich's 43 points were accumulated in a 22 team league though.
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Injuries have cost us being in the mix for top 6 still you know this season. The run before Christmas and now the defence away at a side like Bolton being bare bones have killed us, never know a season like it injury wise.
I reckon 44 to be certain, but could still be as low as 39, things are just so unpredictable. Wolves have a decent run in, Blues have a quite tough one. West Brom are fighting and Hodgson is experienced in saving the thought condemned. West Ham have the firepower to stay up. Blackpool are in trouble. Everton need a couple more wins too. Tight!
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38
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Norwich's 43 points were accumulated in a 22 team league though.
Ah, yeah, good point - forgot about that
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43
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So that's 4 of the so called "winnable 11" down and we have won just one and taken 5 points from 12.
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So that's 4 of the so called "winnable 11" down and we have won just one and taken 5 points from 12.
The only positive thing I can think of is that at that rate of progress we'll almost certainly stay up.
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So that's 4 of the so called "winnable 11" down and we have won just one and taken 5 points from 12.
The only positive thing I can think of is that at that rate of progress we'll almost certainly stay up.
Indeed we will but 6th spot was there for the taking imo.
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I had thought 40 would be enough but all teams seem to be picking up wins here and there and I think it might take 42 now. And after today I'm not convinced we will get them.
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42. I think we will get 44.
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43 to guarantee safety I think. Its going to be bloody tight between 18-8.
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42
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42 for me too, it's gonna be nailbiting if we need something from Arsenal and Liverpool, but I think we'll be ok... roll on next season.
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42-44, I just hope that we don't need to beat the Scousers, it will be very close.
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I love these threads. After having a go on the BBC predictor I reckon 41 will be enough.
That means 8 more points which on paper should be easy, but with our defence will no doubt be hairy. Wigan and Stoke have never lost at VP in the Premiership. I think Albion away will be a tough game as well. I think we'll do Newcastle and Wolves and pick up at least a couple of draws.
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I know we are only three points off the drop zone, but there a number of teams between us and there. We'll be fine.
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What do the history books say when it comes to linking relegation and goal difference? Are the three teams that go down usually also the ones with almost the worst, if not the worst goal difference.
If so, I think all the teams up to us can consider themselves prime relegation material. We'll probably slip a bit lower as the other teams play their games in hand etc.
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I reckon 42 or 43 will be enough we can get the points we need in the remaining games we have left i'm positive we will be ok.
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43 to be sure, as our goal diff is not as good as some.
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I think it will be as low as 37/38.
If you look at the teams that have less than 38 points (so Newcastle downwards) everyone is playing each other, so that's a lot of points to take off each other -
New - 6/9
Eve - 7/10
Ful - 4/9
Sto - 5/9
AV - 7/9
Bbn - 5/9
Bpl - 5/10
WBA - 4/9
WH - 3/9
BC - 6/11
WW - 8/10 (8/9 after the Spuds game today)
WA - 6/9
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villa for life: What do the history books say when it comes to linking relegation and goal difference? Are the three teams that go down usually also the ones with almost the worst, if not the worst goal difference.
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Yes, there is a close correlation between goal difference and league position, not just for the relegation spots.
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I think it will be as low as 37/38.
I hope you are right because I'm struggling to see where we would get ten points I think we need to avoid the drop. I have got my pessimistic head on today though.
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42 - we'll get 40.
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I think we'll get 45.
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I did the bbc predictor with Villa just drawing or losing their remaining game (I know ever the eternal pessimist) and I had wigan, blackburn and wolves to go down with us in 16th on 38 points with west brom just below us, for what it's worth!
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41 points.
West Ham and Wolves are such 6 pointers.
Who'd have thought it?
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Had a go with the predictor...
(http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/5306/premfinaltable.jpg) (http://img96.imageshack.us/i/premfinaltable.jpg/)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)
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I think the fact that all the teams are so close the predictor thing is a waste of time. It looks like we need to win 3 games and i have no idea where we are going to do that. I think we will go into the last 3 games needing points
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I really hope you're wrong. I can't wait to see the end of this season. It's been awful. I still think we'll be OK, though.
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If I remember correctly, West Ham were relegated with 42 points. It is not inconceivable that someone is relegated with even more this season. I wouldn't want to go in to the final 2 games still needing results to go our way.
Yep I can see it being a similar season to that one. Can see a team getting relegated on 41 points this season, hopefully Small Heath.
I think we'll get to 45 points quite comfortably.
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I think it will be as low as 37/38.
I hope you are right because I'm struggling to see where we would get ten points I think we need to avoid the drop. I have got my pessimistic head on today though.
Well 4 points from West ham and West Brom away and 5 points from newcastle, Stoke, Wolves and Wigan home games plus a point at home to the scousers on the final day will see that.
Stoke have been absolutely dreadful on the road this year so far, we're due a win at home to Wigan, Newcastle are begging to slip and Tiote and Nolan are both on 9 yellos so could be suspended for our game and we never lose to West Brom do we?
If Houllier gets us relegated from that run in, he should be hung from the Rotunda.
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In my opinion we need 43.
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SHQ all the teams we have to play are all capable of getting results, there is so little to choose between them, I guess the league proves that. Telegraph on sat showed a chart , this is the lowest points gap (7) 10th to bottom at the begining of March since the prem started, Wigan on 27 points would not have been in the bottom 3 in the last 15 seasons, so i guess that means the points to stay up is going to be high, the record number of points to be relegated is 42.
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I would just like the occasional Saturday evening where my family aren't too frightened to talk to me.
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We're 12th in the current form table, over the last 6 games. So although we've all decided that we're rubbish again after yesterday there are 8 clubs even worse at the moment.
Things are not looking good for Blackpool, Blackburn and Wigan if we use that as a guide.
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43 should do it.
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Had a go with the predictor...
(http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/5306/premfinaltable.jpg) (http://img96.imageshack.us/i/premfinaltable.jpg/)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)
West Brom to only gain two more points given the good run they've had under Hodgson? Really?
Wigan, given how random they are, to gain just one more point this season really?
Manure, given how shite they are away from home, to just drop just 3 more points for the rest of he season? Really?
That's the thing with doing these points predictions, invariably you just keep on giving the top teams wins which result in ridiculously high points tallies and the bottom teams really low tallies. I mean Liverpool are playing better but they did get turned over at West Ham last week so them to finish on 62 points?!
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SHQ all the teams we have to play are all capable of getting results, there is so little to choose between them, I guess the league proves that. Telegraph on sat showed a chart , this is the lowest points gap (7) 10th to bottom at the begining of March since the prem started, Wigan on 27 points would not have been in the bottom 3 in the last 15 seasons, so i guess that means the points to stay up is going to be high, the record number of points to be relegated is 42.
I know but I just can't see how we won't get at least another 10 points on the board, just from the home games. We were worse in January and beat Man. City and Wigan then.
There are so many variables that can happen. We could play Newcastle without Tiote and Noland so with a limited strikeforce you'd expect us to win that. Stoke are shite away and should be safe when we play them so another you'd expect to win etc.
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I would just like the occasional Saturday evening where my family aren't too frightened to talk to me.
Put away the gimp mask and gaffer tape then, that ought to do it.
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SHQ all the teams we have to play are all capable of getting results, there is so little to choose between them, I guess the league proves that. Telegraph on sat showed a chart , this is the lowest points gap (7) 10th to bottom at the begining of March since the prem started, Wigan on 27 points would not have been in the bottom 3 in the last 15 seasons, so i guess that means the points to stay up is going to be high, the record number of points to be relegated is 42.
There are so many variables that can happen. We could play Newcastle without Tiote and Noland so with a limited strikeforce you'd expect us to win that. Stoke are shite away and should be safe when we play them so another you'd expect to win etc.
That's true but by that reasoning we could play either of those two, plus any other game you'd care to mention, without Downing/Ash/Bent and/or Collins/Dunne/Clark. Making said games even harder to win than they already will be.
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10 more, at least.
How? I hope Houllier knows.