Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: Legion on July 21, 2020, 10:28:11 PM
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Well I got the first of the Tense Two totally wrong. Fantastic.
Not the winner-takes-all prediction I made many months ago vs West Ham United but pretty close and it is now (almost) all in our hands. Potentially our very own Great Escape.
As long as we better the Watford result we will have done it.
West Ham United vs Aston Villa D
Arsenal vs Watford L
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Forgot about Bournemouth...
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Forgot about Bournemouth...
But if we draw and Watford lose then we can forget about Bournemouth anyway as they’d only be on 34 points.
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But if we lose, Watford draw/win and Bournemouth win we are down. My head hurts.
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If we lose and Bournemouth win we are down, whatever Watford do.
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But if Bournemouth don't win we only need to match Watfords result
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Please stop referring to a possible Great Escape, that’s too WBA for my tastes.
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Just win Villa.
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If we lose and Bournemouth win we are down, whatever Watford do.
If they lose by more than us?
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Win and Watford need to beat Arsenal by three. Highly unlikely
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Don't Bournemouth need a goal swing of two or more as well as us losing? They haven't scored as many goals as us.
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Please stop referring to a possible Great Escape, that’s too WBA for my tastes.
I've pre-ordered the DVD already...
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This was was all looking very unlikely at the start of the evening.
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Don't Bournemouth need a goal swing of two or more as well as us losing? They haven't scored as many goals as us.
No, if Bournemouth win and we lose their GD will be one better than ours.
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Technically we won't be certain of staying up unless we beat West Ham by at least 7 goals..
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Championship 14/15, Bournemouth, Watford and Norwich were promoted in that order.
Seems pretty fair that five years later they go back again in that order.
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If we lose and Bournemouth win we are down, whatever Watford do.
If they lose by more than us?
If we lose and Bournemouth win they'll finish above us on goal difference, so we go down either with them or Watford depending on whether Watford get something from Arsenal.
As we have more goals for than Watford, we stay up if GD is equal. Therefore -
If we win then we only go down if Watford beat Arsenal by 2 clear goals more than we beat West Ham.
If we draw then we stay up unless Watford win.
If we lose then we need Watford to lose and Bournemouth to not win.
We're now in the box seat, but there's still plenty to do.
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It’s really very simple.
All Villa need to do is match or better the Watford result, simple as that, Bournemouth can do whatever they like, they’re irrelevant so long as we match or better Watford.
Simple.
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It’s really very simple.
All Villa need to do is match or better the Watford result, simple as that, Bournemouth can do whatever they like, they’re irrelevant so long as we match or better Watford.
Simple.
Well unless by matching we lose and Bournemouth win by a couple of goals.
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It’s really very simple.
All Villa need to do is match or better the Watford result, simple as that, Bournemouth can do whatever they like, they’re irrelevant so long as we match or better Watford.
Simple.
That's assuming Watford don't lose. If they lose and we match their result, we go down if Bournemouth win.
Essentially we need points. The odds of all 3 teams losing (in order for us to stay up without gaining any points) are too slim to put any faith in. We need to come out fighting. Relying on the other results in any scenario should be very much Plan B
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It’s really very simple.
All Villa need to do is match or better the Watford result, simple as that, Bournemouth can do whatever they like, they’re irrelevant so long as we match or better Watford.
Simple.
Well unless by matching we lose and Bournemouth win by a couple of goals.
Worse - if we lose, Bournemouth only need to win by 1
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It’s really very simple.
All Villa need to do is match or better the Watford result, simple as that, Bournemouth can do whatever they like, they’re irrelevant so long as we match or better Watford.
Simple.
Well unless by matching we lose and Bournemouth win by a couple of goals.
Worse - if we lose, Bournemouth only need to win by 1
Fucking hell, there’s some doom & gloom merchants on here.
Match anything but a loss then, is that better.
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It’s really very simple.
All Villa need to do is match or better the Watford result, simple as that, Bournemouth can do whatever they like, they’re irrelevant so long as we match or better Watford.
Simple.
Well unless by matching we lose and Bournemouth win by a couple of goals.
Worse - if we lose, Bournemouth only need to win by 1
Fucking hell, there’s some doom & gloom merchants on here.
Match anything but a loss then, is that better.
It's just the reality of the situation we find ourselves in, no point in pretending we're out of it yet. The players won't be doing that, I hope.
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The reality is we could win on Sunday and still go down. And we could lose and still stay up.
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I'm more concerned about what I'm going to do on Sunday afternoon to while away the hours that the football is being played.
Adopting the usual, pointless and unscientific habit of every game since that rubbish at home to Chelsea, I have avoided watching us play. I do dip in and out of the match thread and Matt Maher's (E+S) Twitter updates and this hasn't fucked it yet but that doesn't appeal with the situation as it is.
I have a number of things on the agenda that I could partake in but at the moment and really long walk feels best. That or hiding under the duvet for 90 mins.
And the football itself? Well, we have restored a bit of pride in putting up a fight and I'm glad that it is essentially in our hands and throughout the restart I've been looking for the game to throw up the unpredictable and unusual, but now I'm praying for everything to go the way it should. The form book coming back through the window, the better teams being better, the teams with nothing to play for playing like they have nothing to play for, the usual order restored to a degree and the league positions to remain unaltered after the last round of games.
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Good old Arsenal,
We're proud to say that name, *
And while we sing this song,
They'll win the game. **
* Well, just on sunday because the rest of the time they are still a bunch of disagreeable north londoners.
** And if they can't win against a useless bunch of half Londoners, then we will just have to make sure we beat an even more disagreeable bunch of east londoners.
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It’s really very simple.
All Villa need to do is match or better the Watford result, simple as that, Bournemouth can do whatever they like, they’re irrelevant so long as we match or better Watford.
Simple.
Well unless by matching we lose and Bournemouth win by a couple of goals.
Worse - if we lose, Bournemouth only need to win by 1
Fucking hell, there’s some doom & gloom merchants on here.
Match anything but a loss then, is that better.
Well yes. But that was the whole point of me clarifying the various scenerios above.
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Better any Watford result, that’s all we have to do. There that’s simple enough for me.
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West Ham 0 - Villa 7
Arsenal 0 - Watford 8
I think that relegates West Ham :)
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West Ham 0 - Villa 7
Arsenal 0 - Watford 8
I think that relegates West Ham :)
Doesn't have to be that much if they get a heavy defeat tonight at Man U.
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Who's on first?
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3 nil nil draws will be just fine.
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Who's on first?
All kick-offs are 4pm since it's the last round of games
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Who's on first?
All kick-offs are 4pm since it's the last round of games
Whoosh!
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3 nil nil draws will be just fine.
The issue with that is that we'd be one Watford or West Ham goal away from doom going into the late stages of the game, which I'm not sure I could bare. Perhaps I'm being arrogant following the euphoria of last night, but I want this to be pretty much done by half time, whether that be down to us comfortably beating West Ham or, probably more likely, Arsenal and Everton both winning their games.
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Who's on first?
All kick-offs are 4pm since it's the last round of games
Whoosh!
For the sake of TV all the kick offs should be staggered in alphabetical order.
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Apologies if this has been asked already, but how are league places decided if points are level? I assume it's goal difference first, then is it goals scored? If so, and we beat West Ham 1-0 for example, I think that means Watford have to win 3-0 to go above us and stay up?
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Correct on all fronts.
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Apologies if this has been asked already, but how are league places decided if points are level? I assume it's goal difference first, then is it goals scored? If so, and we beat West Ham 1-0 for example, I think that means Watford have to win 3-0 to go above us and stay up?
That's correct. Goal difference, then goals scored if GD is the same. In effect we have a +2 on Watford.
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The tie break rules are:
1 - Goal difference
2 - Goals Scored
3 - Head-To-Head
4 - Play-Off
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I've spent the entirety of restart being calmly 'guided by the maths', we've never been adrift, always tantalisingly within safety, those around us largely as calamitous as ourselves. But now we've finally dragged ourselves out of the bottom three, I'm terrified! I really need manure to batter the spammers tonight, sufficiently so that it's in our own hands, however unlikely that remains. I honestly don't think I'll be able to watch us on Sunday, I'll have to watch Bournemouth and Watford instead.
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Apologies if this has been asked already, but how are league places decided if points are level? I assume it's goal difference first, then is it goals scored? If so, and we beat West Ham 1-0 for example, I think that means Watford have to win 3-0 to go above us and stay up?
That's correct. Goal difference, then goals scored if GD is the same. In effect we have a +2 on Watford.
Thanks JD! I can now relax nowing that as we stroll imperiously to a 3-0 win at Wet Spam, we should be OK!
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The tie break rules are:
1 - Goal difference
2 - Goals Scored
3 - Head-To-Head
4 - Play-Off
Thank God it won't go to Head to Head!!!
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I've spent the entirety of restart being calmly 'guided by the maths', we've never been adrift, always tantalisingly within safety, those around us largely as calamitous as ourselves. But now we've finally dragged ourselves out of the bottom three, I'm terrified! I really need manure to batter the spammers tonight, sufficiently so that it's in our own hands, however unlikely that remains. I honestly don't think I'll be able to watch us on Sunday, I'll have to watch Bournemouth and Watford instead.
West Ham are surely out of the equation completely whatever happens? They've got a +13 goal goal difference on us, so would need to lose 7-0 to Man U, then 3-0 to us. Even then, they've scored more goals than us, so we'd actually need 4.
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blimey that last minute goal against Watford was bloody massive
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The tie break rules are:
1 - Goal difference
2 - Goals Scored
3 - Head-To-Head
4 - Play-Off
Thank God it won't go to Head to Head!!!
Are you ruling out a 1-0 Villa victory combined with a 7-5 Watford win?
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I'm sticking to my original prediction as its working out so far. We'll get a draw which will knock Bournemouth out of the equation. I think Watford have had the stuffing knocked out of them by the Pearson sacking so that should be enough to clinch it.
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I've spent the entirety of restart being calmly 'guided by the maths', we've never been adrift, always tantalisingly within safety, those around us largely as calamitous as ourselves. But now we've finally dragged ourselves out of the bottom three, I'm terrified! I really need manure to batter the spammers tonight, sufficiently so that it's in our own hands, however unlikely that remains. I honestly don't think I'll be able to watch us on Sunday, I'll have to watch Bournemouth and Watford instead.
West Ham are surely out of the equation completely whatever happens? They've got a +13 goal goal difference on us, so would need to lose 7-0 to Man U, then 3-0 to us. Even then, they've scored more goals than us, so we'd actually need 4.
I'm praying for more than seven! Eight minimum, that at least gives us the tiny chance that if we somehow score just a meagre 3 for only the second time all season, and btw what a fucking shit stat that is, it's out of others' hands.
Granted, it's pretty fanciful stuff, but these are desperate times!
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With all the talk about how much opposition teams will "be on the beach" having nothing to play for, here is the ultimate ridiculous theory I have managed to conjure up.
As we won last night, this now means the following...
Westham are not 100% safe assuming they lose at Man U, therefore will still be up for it and beat us.
Arsenal now are unable to qualify for Europe via the league due to us beating them, therefore they will be on the beach leaguewise and Watford get a result.
Result..Relegation
What we actually needed to do was lose narrowly last night to be in the following situation.
Our defeat would have guaranteed Westham safety and they would have been on the beach, therefore we would go down there and beat them easily.
Arsenal beating us would have kept them in with a chance of Europe via the league, therefore they would be up for it and beat Watford convincingly.
Result....Staying up
Conclusion...Due to Smiths game plan, inspiring the players , tactics, and substitutions last nights victory is a complete disaster and we should outwatford Watford by sacking him today and appointing Nigel Pearson for the final game. Better still call for Fat Sam. ;)
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With all the talk about how much opposition teams will "be on the beach" having nothing to play for, here is the ultimate ridiculous theory I have managed to conjure up.
As we won last night, this now means the following...
Westham are not 100% safe assuming they lose at Man U, therefore will still be up for it and beat us.
Arsenal now are unable to qualify for Europe via the league due to us beating them, therefore they will be on the beach leaguewise and Watford get a result.
Result..Relegation
What we actually needed to do was lose narrowly last night to be in the following situation.
Our defeat would have guaranteed Westham safety and they would have been on the beach, therefore we would go down there and beat them easily.
Arsenal beating us would have kept them in with a chance of Europe via the league, therefore they would be up for it and beat Watford convincingly.
Result....Staying up
Conclusion...Due to Smiths game plan, inspiring the players , tactics, and substitutions last nights victory is a complete disaster and we should outwatford Watford by sacking him today and appointing Nigel Pearson for the final game. Better still call for Fat Sam. ;)
What if west spam don’t lose tonight i.e. draw, surely that might work in our favour
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Indeed, I'm keeping everything crossed that West Ham get something from their game with Manure and Sunday becomes a dead rubber to them. I think mentally it is already, but it would be nice if they were 100% safe and thinking about their holidays.
It feels very strange to know that if Everton and Arsenal win, we could lose and still stay up.
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I really can't see Man U blowing a CL place. That would probably do for OGS if they failed with all their sponsorships payments dependant on CL football. No way they're not gonna hammer the hammers :0(
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It feels very strange to know that if Everton and Arsenal win, we could lose and still stay up.
We've lost a game and won a league before now.
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Not to tempt fate or anything, but Bournemouth and/or Watford might not have their Bosko Jankovic yet.
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Just one more push and get a result against West Ham please... save us from a decade of trying to climb out of that Championship dredge.
Do not count on Arsenal or Everton to do the job for us.
Especially Arsenal is in danger of reverting back to sulking over a pretty bad season for them ... they only show up for the cup now.
When was the last time they didn't even manage a shot of target against Villa? Has it ever happend?
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Who's on first?
All kick-offs are 4pm since it's the last round of games
Whoosh!
Hey, Abbott :)
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West Ham away is going to be very hard indeed. I don't think Watford will win and Arsenal after they waved the white flag by sacking Pearson and that display yesterday. But Bournemouth can win at Goodison. It's ot over by a long way but I fancy us to draw, them to beat Everton and Watford to lose. And all of us to die a little every minute of those final few as West Ham push us back to the final whistle.
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It's little things about Watford which give you the feeling that they might just be done. Deeney's thousand yard stare on the bench yesterday; Foster saying their confidence is crazy low. It does only take a freak incident to turn all of that around, but God, you'd much rather be where we are.
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Who's on first?
All kick-offs are 4pm since it's the last round of games
Whoosh!
Hey, Abbott :)
Are we speaking in tongues now?
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West Ham away is going to be very hard indeed. I don't think Watford will win and Arsenal after they waved the white flag by sacking Pearson and that display yesterday. But Bournemouth can win at Goodison. It's ot over by a long way but I fancy us to draw, them to beat Everton and Watford to lose. And all of us to die a little every minute of those final few as West Ham push us back to the final whistle.
Not as hard as it used to be, National Front Bulldog sellers, showers of coins raining down on the away end, the walk along Green Street, don’t miss that one bit.
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With all the talk about how much opposition teams will "be on the beach" having nothing to play for, here is the ultimate ridiculous theory I have managed to conjure up.
As we won last night, this now means the following...
Westham are not 100% safe assuming they lose at Man U, therefore will still be up for it and beat us.
Arsenal now are unable to qualify for Europe via the league due to us beating them, therefore they will be on the beach leaguewise and Watford get a result.
Result..Relegation
What we actually needed to do was lose narrowly last night to be in the following situation.
Our defeat would have guaranteed Westham safety and they would have been on the beach, therefore we would go down there and beat them easily.
Arsenal beating us would have kept them in with a chance of Europe via the league, therefore they would be up for it and beat Watford convincingly.
Result....Staying up
Conclusion...Due to Smiths game plan, inspiring the players , tactics, and substitutions last nights victory is a complete disaster and we should outwatford Watford by sacking him today and appointing Nigel Pearson for the final game. Better still call for Fat Sam. ;)
Hard to argue with this logic.
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Moyes seemed pretty miffed that the Watford board sacked Pearson after all his efforts.
Maybe he'll field the kids against us, just to put one over the hornets?! ;)
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I will settle for 2-0 home wins for Arsenal,West Ham and Everton
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Last time DS was involved in relegation battle on final day was 2011 at Walsall. They were 1 point clear, lost 3-1 at Southampton but Dagenham and Redbridge also lost 5-0 at Peterborough.
Wonder if same will happen on Sunday. Bournemouth draw and us and Watford lose.
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Sky have announced we are not there final day. Must mean we are on BT sport? They have 8 other games but not ours?
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We are not on SKY, because they are more interested in who will qualify for the Champions League.
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I have a feeling Watford will go play for a draw hoping we will lose, Arsenal couldn't break us down with their ticky touch football around the box and they will try to do the same, that's their best chance.
Bournmouth are the biggest worry they have to win and will throw everything at Everton.
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i have this horrible feeling we will be okay and then in 97th Minute Watford will score a winning goal and we will be relegated.
It is going to be tough for us to get a result at West Ham.
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We’ve been fucking dire all season. West Ham are a place above us.
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What's the lowest points tally that has kept a side up in recent seasons?
If West Ham play anything like they did last night it'll be harder than the Arsenal game. Arsenal were all possession football in non threatening areas for the most part. West Ham were overrunning Yanited for large parts of that game.
That new Czech beanpole midfielder is a handful and Rice and Antonio on form give them a physical advantage.
No way should they be at the arse end of the table.
I'd gladly take a point now if the other games go to form.
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Yes, but it's hard to deny they've hit some form and it will be a tough game. Even Olly's darlings who are also in great form only managed a point at home against them.
Hopefully we'll turn them over but it's far from a sure thing.
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Who's on first?
All kick-offs are 4pm since it's the last round of games
Whoosh!
Hey, Abbott :)
Are we speaking in tongues now?
Who's on second?
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West Ham 0 - Villa 7
Arsenal 0 - Watford 8
I think that relegates West Ham :)
No m8 it leaves us and Watford on 37 points West ham have 38, pity though would have enjoyed seeing them relegated
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Technically we won't be certain of staying up unless we beat West Ham by at least 7 goals..
Not if Watford win by 9