Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine

Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: ozzjim on September 12, 2016, 01:03:39 PM

Title: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: ozzjim on September 12, 2016, 01:03:39 PM
There is a lot of talk across threads about how we are doing, and where we need to be for promotion etc, so a bit like the escape from relegation threads, this is one to discuss where we are and how woefully hopeless our plight is, and where we need to be etc to get out.

So 6 games in, 6 points. Clearly better than every side we have played for large periods, but defensively frail and missing chances like we are throwing penny sweets around. But where do we need to be?

To get automatic we now, IMO, need around 85 points from 40 games. Still not out of the question if we can win 4-5 in a row soonish.

To get play offs, probably around 70 points from 40 games ish from here. Pretty achievable still I would think.

So where do we need to be in the next few weeks? For me, we need to get up to the 20 point mark after the next 7 games, so 13/14 points from our next 7. Looking at the fixtures, Brentford, Ipswich, Newcastle, Barnsley, Preston, Wolves, Reading. If we play to our potential there are 4 wins and a draw minimum there I reckon.

Over to you, where will we be after the next 7?
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Risso on September 12, 2016, 01:09:22 PM
From the next 7, we need to remain unbeaten, including beating the likes of Newcastle.  I'll go for four wins and three draws, the draws being against Wolves at home, Ipswich away and Reading away.

That would give us 21 points from 13 games, which will be decent but still not setting the place alight.  It demonstrates that even over a 46 game season, you just cannot afford to be left behind and our start in the context of being in the mix for promotion by whatever means has been very poor.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: aj2k77 on September 12, 2016, 01:10:37 PM
Brentford - Win 3-1
Ipswich - Draw 1-1
Newcastle - Lose 1-2
Barnsley - Draw 1-1
Preston - Win 2-1
Wolves - Win 2-1
Reading - Win 1-0

20pts after 13 games
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: ChicagoLion on September 12, 2016, 01:17:15 PM
There is nothing to suggest that this squad has the depth, defensive ability or tactical awareness to get the points needed.
Our injury record has been awful and continues and we are picking up bookings.
Consistency is important for successfull teams and for the reasons above we don't look like we have this.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Bottom Right 89 on September 12, 2016, 01:19:24 PM
All I know is that someone in the next 7 games is going to get whacked - we can't keep hitting the woodwork and not every keeper is going to have the game of their life against us. We still have more than a Premier League season of games to go I'm not concerned that we're a few off the pace at this stage. 16 points out the next 21 available only game I can't see us winning is Newcastle and I've allowed for a shit team fluking a point like yesterday.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: David_Nab on September 12, 2016, 01:20:18 PM
I see
Brentford - Win
Ipswich - Win
Newcastle - Loss
Barnsley -Win
Preston -Win
Wolves -Draw
Reading Win
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: mr underhill on September 12, 2016, 01:24:02 PM
so double the wins in the next two months than in the previous 13 months or so?
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: PaulWinch again on September 12, 2016, 01:34:35 PM
so double the wins in the next two months than in the previous 13 months or so?

The previous 13 months aren't relevant. As I said on another thread, we might have been failing to win but it's completely different to last year. Last year we were getting hammered and outplayed week in, week out. This year we have been dominating for a half and then falling away, until yesterday when we dominated pretty much the entire game and got mugged. If we continue on this path we'll win lots of games.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: tony scott on September 12, 2016, 01:59:32 PM
I see going unbeaten Brentford draw Ipswich draw Newcastle win Barnsley win Preston win Wolves draw Reading win we are building momentum
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Dave P on September 12, 2016, 03:49:08 PM
I dont think we'll lose for a fair few games but I can't see us winning many either.

Brentford - Win
Ipswich - Draw
Newcastle - Draw
Barnsley -Draw
Preston -Win
Wolves -Draw
Reading Draw
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: eamonn on September 12, 2016, 04:44:32 PM
We're too sexy in attack to be draw merchants. That should be reserved for years when we're dull as ditchwater, i.e Gregory's last full, O'Neill's first, O'Dreary's  middle etc.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Clampy on September 12, 2016, 05:20:02 PM
I think once we get a couple of wins under our belt, we'll be fine. 6 games in. I've seen enough to make me fairly optimistic we can up there come the end of the season.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: He wears a magic hat on September 12, 2016, 05:34:48 PM
I'm usually pretty negative but I've seen enough to think our unbeaten run started on Sunday. I don't see us losing any of the next 7 games. The only question is how many can we win. I actually think the hardest fixture there is Ipswich away. I'm pretty confident we'll beat Newcastle
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Rudy Can't Fail on September 12, 2016, 06:06:29 PM
I think once we get a couple of wins under our belt, we'll be fine. 6 games in. I've seen enough to make me fairly optimistic we can up there come the end of the season.

Same here. Transfer wise I think we should have re-enforced more the midfield. It's our weakest area. We have more forwards than we need and tactically we need to find a winning formula. 4-2-4 is not the solution.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: jwarry on September 12, 2016, 06:26:39 PM
I think once we get a couple of wins under our belt, we'll be fine. 6 games in. I've seen enough to make me fairly optimistic we can up there come the end of the season.

Same here. Transfer wise I think we should have re-enforced more the midfield. It's our weakest area. We have more forwards than we need and tactically we need to find a winning formula. 4-2-4 is not the solution.

I suspect losing Gana was an unforeseen blow and one they couldn't fix in the time left
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: ozzjim on September 12, 2016, 07:48:38 PM
I think they thought, like Ayew, Gana was committed to grudgingly staying. Sadly he had a clause, and a good side came in.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: SoccerHQ on September 12, 2016, 09:49:44 PM
Don't think you'll need 90 points for automatic like last year.

It might be low 80s, Newcastle will run away with things and no chance Huddersfield will keep winning, could be quite a fight for 2nd.

We really need to start clicking now...I'm looking at Wednesday, Ipswich and PNE as wins really or 7 pojnts as minimum as no doubt we'll concede a late equaliser in one of those games. Would be happy with a point from Newcastle game.

8 points before the next international break and table will look better.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: markeeeebeeee2005 on September 12, 2016, 10:32:52 PM
When did Newcastle suddenly get really good? Most people are putting us down for a loss against them. They got relegated too and we have a nearly completely new starting 11. The only thing they have over us is more recent experience of this division.

Let's smash em.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: not3bad on September 12, 2016, 10:38:34 PM
We'll destroy Newcastle. We'll swarm all over 'em and get 5 to their none. Nae bother.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: PeterWithesShin on September 12, 2016, 10:42:26 PM
We'll finish the season 41 unbeaten in the league. 31 wins and 9 draws in our remaining 40 games.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Des Little on September 12, 2016, 11:12:44 PM
Which one of you lot has got the poppers?
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: croatian on September 12, 2016, 11:15:01 PM
We'll finish the season 41 unbeaten in the league. 31 wins and 9 draws in our remaining 40 games.
You should change your dealer.... ;)
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: croatian on September 12, 2016, 11:18:07 PM
Which one of you lot has got the poppers?
Let's get the party started eh?
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Ads on September 12, 2016, 11:20:10 PM
We need to take 14 points from the next 7 games I reckon.

Back to back wins are vital, especially if we break the away hoodoo. Should give them confidence against Newcastle. Preston hopefully a gimme too, things look bleak for them. I see no reason why we can't eek out results at Barnsley, Wolves and Reading.

When we move the ball with purpose we are comfortably the best attacking side in this league. We need to get Jedinak and Tshibola in the middle though more often than not.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Des Little on September 12, 2016, 11:29:17 PM
Which one of you lot has got the poppers?
Let's get the party started eh?

Vaz the way to do it
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: old man villa fan on September 12, 2016, 11:30:48 PM
As often said, the most important game is the next one.  The target should be to win the next match and the future will take care of itself.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: SoccerHQ on September 12, 2016, 11:45:09 PM
When did Newcastle suddenly get really good? Most people are putting us down for a loss against them. They got relegated too and we have a nearly completely new starting 11. The only thing they have over us is more recent experience of this division.

Let's smash em.

As expected Benitez has made Newcastle hard to score against and with Gayle and Matt Richie they can nick a goal.

They can grind out the results we can't at this moment in time e.g. going to Derby and Bristol and winning.

They'll play 4-5-1 v us, close down space and be dangerous on the counter attack so difficult game for us that.

If they ran away with things, so be it. More than happy with 2nd which is still very possible if we get ou attack together quickly.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Ads on September 13, 2016, 06:24:51 AM
To be fair, Derby have scored 1 goal all season and created nothing against us of note either.

Strange goings on there.  Can't see them getting near the play offs at this rate.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: ozzjim on September 13, 2016, 09:12:37 AM
It's a strange one where 10-12 points in a 5 game spell will put you fairly close to the top 3 or 4 clubs.  I think Newcastle will be out of sight before long because they are defensively much more solid than we are. With our forwards we should be working on finding a system that's hard to break down now. The sides that went up last season were solid at the back. 
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: SoccerHQ on September 13, 2016, 07:44:00 PM
To be fair, Derby have scored 1 goal all season and created nothing against us of note either.

Strange goings on there.  Can't see them getting near the play offs at this rate.

Pearson looks a really bad fit for them, it's a 4-3-3 squad yet he's playing 4-4-2. Getting rid of Chris Martin who's a 15-20 goal man in this league looks odds aswell.

They should've been promoted years ago but always bottle it when it comes to the crunch. The Arsenal of the championship.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: mr underhill on September 13, 2016, 07:49:37 PM
if there's still time for us, there's still time fo them - 120 points to play for yet
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Ads on September 13, 2016, 07:53:47 PM
To be fair, Derby have scored 1 goal all season and created nothing against us of note either.

Strange goings on there.  Can't see them getting near the play offs at this rate.

Pearson looks a really bad fit for them, it's a 4-3-3 squad yet he's playing 4-4-2. Getting rid of Chris Martin who's a 15-20 goal man in this league looks odds aswell.

They should've been promoted years ago but always bottle it when it comes to the crunch. The Arsenal of the championship.

Makes no sense having Hughes play that deep. No pace out wide with Camara the only quick option, as Ince looks pedestrian to me.

Just no balance. I thought it was a good point, but on reflection we should have beat them.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: SoccerHQ on September 13, 2016, 07:55:40 PM
Tom Ince has to be one of the most overrated players around.

Reminds me so much of when SWP was all the rage....mainly due to cheerleading from his Dad.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: PaulWinch again on September 13, 2016, 08:08:58 PM
Norwich look pretty handy at the moment.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: chrisw1 on September 13, 2016, 09:02:31 PM
Newcastle flying 4-0 against QPR and Clark scoring.

If we could just start finishing chances we should be demoralising teams like this.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: PaulWinch again on September 13, 2016, 09:03:23 PM
It starts tomorrow.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: VillaAlways on September 13, 2016, 10:23:05 PM
I see we've dropped to 18th with Leeds going above us. I think it's slightly important we win tomorrow.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: not3bad on September 13, 2016, 10:25:54 PM
The lads will be confident. Just get out there and attack. Obviously don't be too careless.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Louzie0 on September 13, 2016, 10:33:32 PM
I'd quite like it if we won. No pressure.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: pbavfckuwait on September 14, 2016, 06:10:16 AM
Hull who went up via the play offs last year managed that on the back of losing 11 games over the season.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Ads on September 14, 2016, 06:47:42 AM
We've got to stick some results back to back. It will be a joy to see this side attack when full of confidence. There isn't any game in the next 7 we shouldn't be looking to win.

Wolves getting battered shows how vulnerable they are at home, with Burton also picking up a point.

Equally shows that Barnsley are no mugs and have had a good start too. So important we win tonight and back that up on Saturday, then we're up and running.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: PaulWinch again on September 14, 2016, 10:01:02 PM
My patience is starting to wear thin now. We are consistently making the same mistakes with no sign we're learning. It simply isn't good enough.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: myf on September 14, 2016, 10:20:57 PM
Our confidence could be in an even worse state after the next two games. Worried
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: curiousorange on September 14, 2016, 10:28:20 PM
The plan is, get shitter, go past infinity, and arrive at good again.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Ads on September 14, 2016, 10:37:03 PM
You forgot relegation from the title of this thread.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: SoccerHQ on September 14, 2016, 10:45:55 PM
Next to no chance of automatic promotion.

We have no killer instinct whatsoever and no winning mentality.

That doesn't equal to me 20 odd wins in the next 8 months.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Ads on September 14, 2016, 10:48:01 PM
We have no chance of finishing in the top half. We are fucking diabolical.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: VillaAlways on September 14, 2016, 10:50:03 PM
Next to no chance of automatic promotion.

We have no killer instinct whatsoever and no winning mentality.

That doesn't equal to me 20 odd wins in the next 8 months.
Yep! Staying in the division Can seeing us finish 12th with a change of manager
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Jimbo on September 14, 2016, 10:50:06 PM
We're closer to relegation than any hope of automatic promotion. That's not to say we will get relegated, but we are what we are: a very ordinary Championship side that thinks it's better than it is. It may be better to close this thread and resurrect it next season?
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: ozzjim on September 14, 2016, 10:54:03 PM
Or just change it to an escape from fucking relegation
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: SoccerHQ on September 14, 2016, 10:59:11 PM
We will finish comfortably ahead of bottom three so I'm not worrying about that at all despite the poor placing currently.

However to get 2nd we'll need 80 odd points. We simply won't do that. We need to win 25 or around that in under 40 games now...it's not going to happen.

We're showing no indication it's going to happen despite spending a fortune at this level.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: ozzjim on September 14, 2016, 11:00:37 PM
But have not bought a midfield unit.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Ads on September 14, 2016, 11:02:56 PM
As long as that thundercunt Westwood continues to haunt this club and side with his presence, we will always be in with a chance of being relegated.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Des Little on September 14, 2016, 11:06:23 PM
This mob aren't going anywhere this season. We won't go down, but there's absolutely no chance of even threatening the play offs.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Ads on September 14, 2016, 11:08:03 PM
You're right, if we keep going at a point a game we should just about stop up.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: SoccerHQ on September 14, 2016, 11:20:09 PM
We're still only 5 or so points off the play offs.

Sometimes there's a 20 point difference between 2nd and 6th so I wouldn't write off that at all.

Worst thing for me so far this season is not that we can't win when we play badly like tonight.

We can't even win when we play well.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Ads on September 14, 2016, 11:21:51 PM
That's because we're not very good. It's because of that fact that I can write the play offs, erm, off.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: adrenachrome on September 15, 2016, 01:24:53 AM
We are ghastly.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Witton Warrior on September 15, 2016, 08:26:33 AM
We are ghastly.

I'm laughing as I follow you round the threads - is "ghastly" the new "Boot. Face. Stamp"  ;-)
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Chico Hamilton III on September 15, 2016, 09:55:57 AM
By my admittedly dodgy calculations, if games only lasted for 85 minutes, then we'd be 4th in the league

Sheff Weds scored on 85 mins, Huddersfield 86, Forest 87 and Brentford 88. Is that 7 dropped points in the last 5 mins?
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Ads on September 15, 2016, 10:01:13 AM
By my admittedly dodgy calculations, if games only lasted for 85 minutes, then we'd be 4th in the league

Sheff Weds scored on 85 mins, Huddersfield 86, Forest 87 and Brentford 88. Is that 7 dropped points in the last 5 mins?

It is.

But what I think you're saying is that by come Preston, as long as there's only one minute added on, we might win it?
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: eamonn on September 15, 2016, 04:05:23 PM
Brentford and Hudds deserved something for how they dominated territorially in the second half even if they didn't create a great deal. You deserve all you get when you spend half the game waiting for the final whistle.

 The Wednesday and Forest (in particular) games were harder to take as the opposition didn't play any better than us.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Brian Taylor on September 16, 2016, 12:55:24 PM
By my admittedly dodgy calculations, if games only lasted for 85 minutes, then we'd be 4th in the league

Sheff Weds scored on 85 mins, Huddersfield 86, Forest 87 and Brentford 88. Is that 7 dropped points in the last 5 mins?

It is.

But what I think you're saying is that by come Preston, as long as there's only one minute added on, we might win it?

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-37378935. They take 'curses' seriously in Ireland. Maybe rdm should do likewise

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-37378935
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Toronto Villa on September 16, 2016, 05:23:45 PM
I like our attacking options but they need to be options and not all be played at the same time. I'd sooner we grinded out some hard fought 1-0, 2-1 wins than going for broke and then conceding late. We need the confidence of winning to free us from the tension that has a hold over the entire place. Goals will come with freedom and confidence.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: PaulWinch again on September 17, 2016, 05:36:46 PM
What would be nice would be three things -

- an actual plan of attack
- a defence that can actually communicate
- a sense of urgency

Those three things would massively change our fortunes.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Ads on September 17, 2016, 05:38:31 PM
We are a team that cannot win a game. Cannot see us doing anything but limping towards the 3rd division.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: PaulWinch again on September 17, 2016, 05:41:51 PM
We'll win games at some point. Whether there will be enough wins for the top 6 is certainly up for debate, but we're not going down.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Toronto Villa on September 17, 2016, 05:42:13 PM
I'd like us to go back to shooting 50 times a game and when we have the lead have a plan to steadily and intentionally see out the game. Today we didn't look like scoring and we almost got screwed towards the end. How you go from one attacking extreme to the complete opposite is beyond me.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Ads on September 17, 2016, 05:45:12 PM
What makes you think we are going to win games? We look as bad as last season.

By and large we are too open. We shit our pants in the 85th minute and could easily have been beaten by fucking Ipswich who are garbage.

We can't win away games, we are shit at home. We are unbalanced, with Sherwood in a mask who is grasping at selection and formation.

We are far more likely to be relegated than finish in the top half. It's absolutely atrocious.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: exiled on the wirral! on September 17, 2016, 05:45:36 PM
A point behind our 1987-88 promotion season points wise...bleak times!
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Goldie.7 on September 17, 2016, 05:48:22 PM
It's around 19 wins for the top six, so far we've won one. So in theory we'll need to win every second game from now on.

Does that look likely?
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Lastfootstamper on September 17, 2016, 05:57:40 PM
A point behind our 1987-88 promotion season points wise...bleak times!

A point which would've deprived us of an automatic spot.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: spartacuss on September 19, 2016, 01:07:48 PM
Don't know whether this has been referenced before, but I found more than an echo of our 'slippage' last season (and current state?) in this article about the slackness and lack of team spirit at Everton last season under Martinez:

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/sep/16/ronald-koeman-revolution-everton-roberto-martinez-gareth-barry

I remember someone on H & V talking about (last season, can't recall exactly) our players all headphoned up and isolated when being 'together' travelling to and from matches, so this extract from the article about Koeman's new approach caught my eye:

 'Players were told to report to Finch Farm at 9am each day to eat breakfast together. No mobile phones are allowed at mealtimes. Baseball caps and headphones are also banned when travelling to matches. Training has a sharpness that has been reflected in Everton’s play in the final third and when out of possession.'

This team as opposed to a group of players aspect is of interest to me, because some years back a nephew of mine was part of the catering and waiting team on the Villa team bus and - although he was never indiscreet enough to reveal much (sorry!) - he did comment on the way, win or lose, there was generally a good team spirit on the bus.  He mentioned Mark Delaney in particular as a good MC for collective team-building involvement.

I'm probably a bit old-school on this, but the self-absorbed, atomisation that headphoned-up players seems to represent,  probably doesn't help building team spirit.
Title: Re: Plotting our escape.....
Post by: Clark W Griswold on September 19, 2016, 01:58:31 PM
Yes, we're probably going to need about 70 points min for 6th. That's another 62 points in 38 games. Following on from 8 in 8 and from last seasons debacle I'm not confident. By the way, 46 points should just keep us up by a place or 2, so if it gets any worse we could actually be down again.
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