Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: IFWaters on August 05, 2016, 07:29:11 PM
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Average points for the automatic places in the last 12 years is 87.
Thats :
24 wins
15 draws
only 7 losses
No room for fannying around at the start of the season unless we want to do it the hard way by the playoffs.
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More than five times our points tally last season. Chilling.
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More than five times our points tally last season. Chilling.
We'll have beaten last seasons tally by the middlse of September.
crosses finger, toes, arms and legs
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When you read it like that it looks a hell of a challenge.
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Less than 2 points a game. Win 26 of the 46 you are almost there. You need to hit a purple patch a couple of times and win 5-6 in a row, but also have the knack of keeping on nudging the points along.
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Or win a few more than 50% of your games. Challenging, but not that daunting.
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24 wins!?
So only 21 more than we managed last season then ..... Piece of piss!!
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If we draw tomorrow and win all our remaining fixtures we're guaranteed to finish above Newcastle 😂
70 is the first milestone - gets us in the playoffs.
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24 wins!?
So only 21 more than we managed last season then ..... Piece of piss!!
The first step is to get the monkey of 'the opposition have just scored, thats it, game over' of last season is off their backs.
If they have, then they have a good chance, if not, its going to be a long season.
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24 wins. Have done that cumulatively over the past 3 seasons?
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Need to win plenty of home games. That's a big challenge.
Something like 15 home wins out of 23 needs to be a target. If we can do that that's pretty much 50 points with a couple of draws.
Then 10 away wins and we're pretty much there.
The way I look at it, you can lose 15 games in this league and still get promoted....as long as you don't draw many.
Drawing games was a massive problem for us in our premier league years when challenging for top 6 so hopefully we'll move away from that obsession now we've dropped a level.
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Need to win plenty of home games. That's a big challenge.
Something like 15 home wins out of 23 needs to be a target. If we can do that that's pretty much 50 points with a couple of draws.
Then 10 away wins and we're pretty much there.
The way I look at it, you can lose 15 games in this league and still get promoted....as long as you don't draw many.
Drawing games was a massive problem for us in our premier league years when challenging for top 6 so hopefully we'll move away from that obsession now we've dropped a level.
I think now we can all rexamine this delightful thread with renewed optimism.
Very astute in the observation of draws and the may be the diffrence between top 2 and the play offs
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Average points in last 5 years to get in the playoffs is 74.
We have 14 from 13 games.
Sp we need 60 points from 33 games, just under 2 points a game.
Or to put it bluntly 20 wins.
Or 17 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses. ie winning over half our games.
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I think our immediate focus should be on winning 2 games in row.
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Slim chance. But if we can put a run together and build some confidence I'll be more optimistic.
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I think our immediate focus should be on winning 20 games in row.
Too true.
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If we can put 10 or so game unbeaten run together, with almost no draws, a sense of inevitability will build. Both within Villa and in the minds of the other teams.
That is one almighty 'if', however.
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So based off this deep data analysis our strategy should be to win as many games as possible.
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So based off this deep data analysis our strategy should be to win as many games as possible.
More than is possible, preferably.
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Very good.
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So based off this deep data analysis our strategy should be to win as many games as possible.
well spotted.
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I think our immediate focus should be on winning 20 games in row.
Too true.
I don't think I could cope.
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So based off this deep data analysis our strategy should be to win as many games as possible.
Exactly. Is anyone surprised that to get promoted you need to win most of your games?
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I think our immediate focus should be on winning 20 games in row.
Too true.
I don't think I could cope.
Haha. Imagine what would happen to this website?!
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This math is all academic at the moment.
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Maths!
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Average points in last 5 years to get in the playoffs is 74.
We have 14 from 13 games.
Sp we need 60 points from 33 games, just under 2 points a game.
Or to put it bluntly 20 wins.
Or 17 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses. ie winning over half our games.
Thanks for statistical update . I think having idea of target is good to know. If we predict by looking at fixtures villas points total -or calling 20 wins - then target could be achieved.
I see there are 33 matches left.
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There are 17 teams around us and mostly above us that potentially can make the playoffs. We are adrift of the playoffs by 7 points, so over the next 33 games we merely have to score 0.21 points per game more than all of those teams to get in the playoffs. Simple. Welllllllll, I didn't take into account goal difference, but assumed that with all of those extra points against everyone else we would be home and hosed with that. Is it possible? Well since Bruce took over, we are averaging 2 points a game, the 17 teams around us 1.23 points. Nobody is scoring more than 2 points per game in that group so we are not losing any ground to anyone. In fact only the jawdies in the whole league are doing better than us. This is going to be easy.
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There are 17 teams around us and mostly above us that potentially can make the playoffs. We are adrift of the playoffs by 7 points, so over the next 33 games we merely have to score 0.21 points per game more than all of those teams to get in the playoffs. Simple. Welllllllll, I didn't take into account goal difference, but assumed that with all of those extra points against everyone else we would be home and hosed with that. Is it possible? Well since Bruce took over, we are averaging 2 points a game, the 17 teams around us 1.23 points. Nobody is scoring more than 2 points per game in that group so we are not losing any ground to anyone. In fact only the jawdies in the whole league are doing better than us. This is going to be easy.
This post has made my day ! Thanks it great not only to be optimistic after the win but we can be more than realistic to be in play offs . Di matteo was confident all along and must have had such basis on the statistical points average !:brilliant post as is the original and updated version for playoffs I hope we could achieve top 2.
Btw can take into account Newcastle slump in form at some point as Villa have had there's it's perhaps not unrealistic to make division champions or automatic top 2! But for sure your clear explanation of whats currently needed sees optimism from me as definitely achievable to reach needed points total . However i really be nervous as play off is win or bust. Bruce did it last year and Diame won it with a classic goal but i don't think I could handle the drama !!
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There are 17 teams around us and mostly above us that potentially can make the playoffs. We are adrift of the playoffs by 7 points, so over the next 33 games we merely have to score 0.21 points per game more than all of those teams to get in the playoffs. Simple. Welllllllll, I didn't take into account goal difference, but assumed that with all of those extra points against everyone else we would be home and hosed with that. Is it possible? Well since Bruce took over, we are averaging 2 points a game, the 17 teams around us 1.23 points. Nobody is scoring more than 2 points per game in that group so we are not losing any ground to anyone. In fact only the jawdies in the whole league are doing better than us. This is going to be easy.
(http://img2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20131016114152/bigbangtheory/images/8/8a/Rr2.jpg)
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There are 17 teams around us and mostly above us that potentially can make the playoffs. We are adrift of the playoffs by 7 points, so over the next 33 games we merely have to score 0.21 points per game more than all of those teams to get in the playoffs. Simple. Welllllllll, I didn't take into account goal difference, but assumed that with all of those extra points against everyone else we would be home and hosed with that. Is it possible? Well since Bruce took over, we are averaging 2 points a game, the 17 teams around us 1.23 points. Nobody is scoring more than 2 points per game in that group so we are not losing any ground to anyone. In fact only the jawdies in the whole league are doing better than us. This is going to be easy.
have you used 95% Confidence Intervals?
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There are 17 teams around us and mostly above us that potentially can make the playoffs. We are adrift of the playoffs by 7 points, so over the next 33 games we merely have to score 0.21 points per game more than all of those teams to get in the playoffs. Simple. Welllllllll, I didn't take into account goal difference, but assumed that with all of those extra points against everyone else we would be home and hosed with that. Is it possible? Well since Bruce took over, we are averaging 2 points a game, the 17 teams around us 1.23 points. Nobody is scoring more than 2 points per game in that group so we are not losing any ground to anyone. In fact only the jawdies in the whole league are doing better than us. This is going to be easy.
have you used 95% Confidence Intervals?
What? - be wrong 1 in 20 times! - that's no way to plan.
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There was quite a lot of tongue in cheek! To plot our next 33 games based on two games is somewhat risky, this is the place where bankers tend to lurk. And to state its easy to score 0.21 more than the teams round us for each and every game until the end of the season is not something I would put a lot of money on. However, it is more than doable. I just think we have got to get our head down and win the next game and go on from there. Everything is statistical bollocks
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(http://astonvillacentral.com/wp-content/uploads/history-pie-500px.png)
(http://i3.birminghammail.co.uk/incoming/article10204569.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/Aston-Villa-stats.jpg)
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Here's the rub, the secret to good man management is not to push people to achieve the end goal by stating "we need to win over 20 games", as that is just demoralising.
You should be stating "we need to win the next game"; that's the target that needs to be instilled in all the players, (especially the ones that are not blessed with massive intellect).
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Maths!
Math. Maths just doesn't add up!
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Maths. Math just isn't spelt right
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Maths. Math just isn't spelt right
I thought that it was 'Rithmatic
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we're 6 and 6 goal difference points behind the playoff places, Bristol City in 6th atm.
Its a hard target to get in those spots by christmas day, 8 games away, including 3 of the bottom 4 in the league :
SHA away
Blackburn home
Brighton away
Cardiff away
Leeds away
Wigan home
Norwich away
QPR away
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Apart from Norwich can pretty much win all those other matches and dish out some beatings along the way !
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Fuck Norwich. We will beat them too.
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2 home 6 away seems harsh
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Cardiff is home end of November
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2 home 6 away seems harsh
Bring on away games. We are 100% under Bruce!!!
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2 home 6 away seems harsh
Bring on away games. We are 100% under Bruce!!!
Good point. I think we will be more effective away for a while.
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I think our immediate focus should be on winning 20 games in row.
Too true.
18 to go.
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Joint 15th and just 6pts behind the playoff places...it's all to play for and I wouldn't bet against us now we have a manager that actually seems to know what he's doing and what it takes to get us out of the Championship.
A quick glance at the table also shows that we're now above Wolves who have had a reasonable start to the season, battered us last week and despite rumours that Zenga might be on the verge of getting sacked.
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31 games to go.
74 points average to get into playoffs. 87 average for automatic promotion (forget that !).
56 points to get from 31 matches is 1.8 per game, still a tough ask, equivalent to winning 3 out of every 5 games.
We are 6 points and 6 goal difference off playoff spots and 7 games til Xmas. Got to aim to be right on their tails by then.
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4 wins and two draws would see us on 32 and likely only 3 or 4 behind. I'd take that as momentum would be with us.
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31 games to go.
74 points average to get into playoffs. 87 average for automatic promotion (forget that !).
56 points to get from 31 matches is 1.8 per game, still a tough ask, equivalent to winning 3 out of every 5 games.
We are 6 points and 6 goal difference off playoff spots and 7 games til Xmas. Got to aim to be right on their tails by then.
When you look at it like that, it seems daunting.
I prefer to look at the table and it seems there is an awful lot of inconsistency among 3rd placed to 10th place. I see it as very possible to catch up these 6 points in the 7 games before Xmas, taking us into the top 6. I then see us capable of being consistent enough to take as many points from the remaining games as those around us-Whatever that final total may be.
2nd place does look like a bridge too far but if we could win our next 2 games (which include away at Brighton), that would put us 9 points behind them. This would mean 2nd could certainly be a target at least. Looking at how we played on Sunday though, it is difficult to see us winning at Brighton.
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Now 5 points behind playoffs, level on goal difference with 6th place.
In the playoff places by Xmas still a possibility but Brighton away next is a huge test.
I'll probably be slated but statistically we have one of the top defensive units in the league, only 4 sides let in fewer goals, the best is Brighton by a mile (9 goals to our 16).
Conversely, for all the money spent, and undoubted talent, going forward we are in the bottom quarter in the league, only 5 teams have scored less.
Still, it can't be long before we give some poor buggers one hell of a beating...
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We need another 50 or so points for play offs I reckon.
I don't think automatic promotion is realistic though....Newcastle and Brighton will probably finish close to 90 points so we'd have to go on a ridiculous winning run.
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Now 5 points behind playoffs, level on goal difference with 6th place.
In the playoff places by Xmas still a possibility but Brighton away next is a huge test.
I'll probably be slated but statistically we have one of the top defensive units in the league, only 4 sides let in fewer goals, the best is Brighton by a mile (9 goals to our 16).
Conversely, for all the money spent, and undoubted talent, going forward we are in the bottom quarter in the league, only 5 teams have scored less.
Still, it can't be long before we give some poor buggers one hell of a beating...
Great update.
I think it shows of we put a run together then can really rise up the league.
7 / 9 points is attainable in next 3 matches .
With 30 matches left what's obviously important to beat the teams in play off and promotion places taking there points and gaining ground. Brighton at home a draw . Leeds away a win and Cardiff home a win.
The current play off hopefuls are
Huddersfield
Reading
Norwich
Leeds
Now what strikes me is huddersfield and Norwich are in poor form and faltering . Reading have been beaten by villa but have had food results and Leeds have this weekend for into 6th place due to momentum. What I see apart from Norwich are teams that have been galvanised by new manager effect. And the 6th place for sure and prob more will often be up for grabs as not many teams over 46 matches and now 30 will have the consistency. Villa are one of them and along with Brighton Newcastle and Norwich are the best teams.
Birmingham are nust outside play offs as are a fewother teams and see that 6th and maybe other play off places changing position depending on who form team is .
Basically if we can win a few more games than draw there is a real chance of top2. Next 2 months could give indication for promotion
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I also love it that unbeaten at home!
Let that continue may 7th home Brighton and claim automatic
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Really annoying how RDM's tenure has hampered Steve Bruce. We'll have to win so many games now to gain an automatic spot; not impossible but I think we'll get to the play-offs now. Be nice to have a day out at Wembley!
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And who wants to bet against us doing it
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Not me. I believe we'll be in the play offs
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I think our immediate focus should be on winning 20 games in row.
Too true.
18 to go.
19.
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Brighton will be really tough - in fact we've got some tough away games coming up overall - Leeds, Norwich, QPR (I never rfanxy us at QPR)
Some very winnable home games though - Cardiff Wigan burton before tougher games in Leeds and Preston
This league is really tough. But there isn't that much quality in it really. I quite fancy us for the play offs and then if we don't go up through that to do so automatically the year after. That wouldn't be such a bad thing in my view. There aren't many players in our squad I'd really want to go into a premiership season with at the moment
Maybe Chester amavi grealish ayew kodjia plus a couple more. The midfield in particular looks very low on quality
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We beat reading away under Bruce and reading are a higher outfit that these 2. so don't think qpr and Leeds will be a problem as now getting grip with Bruce strength to strength. Brighton Norwich Newcastle are only 3 I fear !
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So.
Bruce average points is 2 per game. 29 games remaining. 29x2=58.
22+58=80 points.
I used to be a teacher, you see.
80 points guarantees play-offs but isn't enough for automatic promotion except for Hull under ... Steve!
We're going up this season.
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Just 5 more goals either scored or avoided and our position would look much more healthy in the top play off place with 32 points.
Such is the fine dividing line.
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Just 5 more goals either scored or avoided and our position would look much more healthy in the top play off place with 32 points.
Such is the fine dividing line.
Or simply shoring up the midfield when we were holding onto leads against Huddersfield, Brentford, Forest and Barnsley would have seen us on 30 points.
Ifs buts and maybes but I doubt many would disagree that had Bruce been here at the start of the season, we'd have over 30 points on the board by now.
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Just 5 more goals either scored or avoided and our position would look much more healthy in the top play off place with 32 points.
Such is the fine dividing line.
Or simply shoring up the midfield when we were holding onto leads against Huddersfield, Brentford, Forest and Barnsley would have seen us on 30 points.
Ifs buts and maybes but I doubt many would disagree that had Bruce been here at the start of the season, we'd have over 30 points on the board by now.
100% Kodj
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My nagging doubt is we'll look back sometime in May and really rue all the games we messed up in the early weeks of the season.
It's a shame. SB is doing his best but RDM really was abysmal....1 win in 11!
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Yeah but thank McGrath the Dr pulled the pin when he did. He went at the earliest reasonable opportunity.
I'm absolutely certain that under Lerner he'd still be here.
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My nagging doubt is we'll look back sometime in May and really rue all the games we messed up in the early weeks of the season.
It's a shame. SB is doing his best but RDM really was abysmal....1 win in 11!
I always thought it would take 2 seasons to get back up after the shambles we had become and I stand by that. I don't think Steves job will depend on us going up this season. I can see us finishing just outside the Top 6, would be delighted to be wrong, but I'm cool about this season given the awful start we had. Next season however is a different matter.
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I would be incredibly confident on next season if Hull, Swansea and Sunderland remains the bottom three.
I do agree and think the Doctor sees it like that....this season is a bit of a free hit for SB, not just get wins and see where that takes us but try to change the overall culture around the club, it's much more optimistic on matchdays at VP now which is important.
If we don't make it this year then yes we need to get promotion next season.
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My nagging doubt is we'll look back sometime in May and really rue all the games we messed up in the early weeks of the season.
It's a shame. SB is doing his best but RDM really was abysmal....1 win in 11!
I have this fear that it will leave us 7th by a point.
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My nagging doubt is we'll look back sometime in May and really rue all the games we messed up in the early weeks of the season.
It's a shame. SB is doing his best but RDM really was abysmal....1 win in 11!
I have this fear that it will leave us 7th by a point.
I really think we'll make the top 6 comfortably but we'll go on such a good run second half of the season we we'll only be a point or two off Brighton at the end.
Whatever form you go into them with the play offs remain a lottery, much better to go the automatic route.
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We desperately need to turn these draws into wins.
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We desperately need to turn these draws into wins.
We are....we have won 3 of our last 5.
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Given the way we've picked up, with the quality we have and the chance to improve in January, I don't see any reason now why we can't hit the play offs.
We're 5 points off 6th and we have to play them twice. We haven't played anybody who has been in the slightest bit impressive, including the top two.
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Given the way we've picked up, with the quality we have and the chance to improve in January, I don't see any reason now why we can't hit the play offs.
We're 5 points off 6th and we have to play them twice. We haven't played anybody who has been in the slightest bit impressive, including the top two.
Plus there's AGES to go yet, and a January transfer window.
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We desperately need to turn these draws into wins.
We are....we have won 3 of our last 5.
Drawn 2 of last 3, 3 of last 6. Love the fact wevery improved, we still lack any killer instinct.
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We need to start scoring more goals, it's really disappointing that we have managed so few goals with a much vaunted strike force . A more inventive midfield will help, Adomah could be our secret weapon.
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You're right, amazing how much we spent and still the midfield struggles to offer much.
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We desperately need to turn these draws into wins.
We are....we have won 3 of our last 5.
Drawn 2 of last 3, 3 of last 6. Love the fact wevery improved, we still lack any killer instinct.
Well yes but we won't win every single game left this season....they'll still be draws and the odd defeat.
Way I see it....Reading and Fulham games were both heading for draws and we won both of them.
If you look at teams above us....not many of them are in great form. SHA won their first game in 4 yesterday (they're also a bit lucky they haven't yet faced Newcastle or Brighton this season) and Norwich have lost their last 4 or 5 yet are still in the top 6.
But both have all the points they accumulated in the early weeks to fall back on....we don't have that luxury.
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We're averaging two points a game, that's title form.
We've turned defeats into draws with Wolves and Small Heath. We should have beaten Brighton, but a point still wasn't a bad result.
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We desperately need to turn these draws into wins.
We are....we have won 3 of our last 5.
Drawn 2 of last 3, 3 of last 6. Love the fact wevery improved, we still lack any killer instinct.
Bruce has had to stabilise and essentially had to build from the back and instill confidence by making us more solid. I think we will start winning more comfortably now hopefully starting Saturday
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You're right, amazing how much we spent and still the midfield struggles to offer much.
Which changed enormously when Grealish/Ayew came on. We still look a bit disjointed as a forward unit with some good partnerships forming but the whole not quite linking together across the pitch. But it will come.
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The 2nd half versus Brighton (furthermore and Hove Albion, 2 teams !) Was the epitome performance. In moving forward on collection of points such football player would see many maxuim of 3. I like to think there are 9 points in next 3 matches boosting promotion hopes. Most importantly all teams have to play one another so points will be lost by teams ahead in table. Still reasonable to see top 2 . Currently seeing Derby with 3 wins rise and Norwich slump means anything possible
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By the way, I like to look at the stats, a bit Moneyball if you will, but they can tell you some interesting things. Anyway it makes a change from trolling Westwood, so heres my tuppence...
We are now 5 points behind Norwich in the playoff places but there are a mass of teams in the running.
Ive revised my view and think we need to be in those playoff places by the New Year (before the ACN) , taking at least 14 points from the next 7 games :
26 Nov - Cardiff (h)
3 Dec - Leeds (a)
10 Dec - Wigan (h)
13 Dec - Norwich (a)
18 Dec - QPR (a)
26 Dec - Burton (h)
29 Dec - Leeds (h)
Those 14 points would take us to 36 points from 24 matches, with 22 left to play.
Playoffs on average are 74 points, so 1.7 points a game, automatic places on average 87 points, so a real stretch 2.3 points a game (thats 2 wins and a draw in every 3 matches or 5 wins and a draw in every 7 matches - form we have not seen from Villa in maybe 25 years).
Earlier posters have said it, we now need the goals to start flowing.
Our defence is the 3rd best in the league, only Newcastle and Brighton have conceded less, but in attack we rank 17/24 - despite all the talent at our disposal. If you look at the stats on
https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/7/Seasons/6365/Stages/13832/TeamStatistics/England-Championship-2016-2017
we are 14th/24 for shots per game and similar for shots on target.
I know a lot will say that midfield is the problem ...do these stats prove that ?
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We're averaging two points a game, that's title form.
Except the Jawdees and Brighton are both running at more than two points a game...
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We're 5th in the form table over the past six games and if we keep our average up we will hit the play offs.
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Precisely. It's play off form and not quite title form. And given the head start we've given teams we'd possibly have to do better than your standard title form.
I would fancy us against the vast bulk of teams in the play offs. Just got to hope Newcastle don't implode and finish there. Would probably rather avoid Norwich of all the others but I reckon they'll be in it.
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We've gone up to 15th tonight without playing 😀
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Form table makes for good reading. Huddersfield and Norwich dropping like stones, and the only points Reading and Brighton have dropped recently have been against one Aston Villa.
Clicky (http://www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=england2)
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By the way, I like to look at the stats, a bit Moneyball if you will, but they can tell you some interesting things. Anyway it makes a change from trolling Westwood, so heres my tuppence...
We are now 5 points behind Norwich in the playoff places but there are a mass of teams in the running.
Ive revised my view and think we need to be in those playoff places by the New Year (before the ACN) , taking at least 14 points from the next 7 games :
26 Nov - Cardiff (h)
3 Dec - Leeds (a)
10 Dec - Wigan (h)
13 Dec - Norwich (a)
18 Dec - QPR (a)
26 Dec - Burton (h)
29 Dec - Leeds (h)
Those 14 points would take us to 36 points from 24 matches, with 22 left to play.
Playoffs on average are 74 points, so 1.7 points a game, automatic places on average 87 points, so a real stretch 2.3 points a game (thats 2 wins and a draw in every 3 matches or 5 wins and a draw in every 7 matches - form we have not seen from Villa in maybe 25 years).
Earlier posters have said it, we now need the goals to start flowing.
Our defence is the 3rd best in the league, only Newcastle and Brighton have conceded less, but in attack we rank 17/24 - despite all the talent at our disposal. If you look at the stats on
https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/7/Seasons/6365/Stages/13832/TeamStatistics/England-Championship-2016-2017
we are 14th/24 for shots per game and similar for shots on target.
I know a lot will say that midfield is the problem ...do these stats prove that ?
I see teams around still have to play each other so that's a consideration in regards to points right?
For e.g. villa play Leeds twice in December and winning both takes 6 points from them. Similarly other teams play each other and deny points so there's a chance is there not of winning league or finishing in top 2 still?
Newcastle lose out yesterday. Reading and Derby are on a run which won't last I think There's real chance of automatic and main thing convinced me was that brigjton 2nd half performance
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We're currently 4 points off 5th & 6th, 6 points off 4th.
If we can win 2 more games than any of those teams between now and Cardiff away, we'll be starting the new year in a play off spot. This would have been unthinkable when Bruce first arrived at the club. I think the target then would have been to get to the new year and be within striking distance of the play offs, to actually be in the top 6 would be a fantastic achievement.
I still think that top 2 is a bridge too far for us this season but at the time that Bruce took over, I wasn't entirely convinced that top 6 was achievable. I'm now very confident that it is.
I think the top 2 will remain the same for the remainder of the season. After that, the next 4 places is anyones guess, such is the uncertainty and competitiveness of the division. I think that we should secure one of the 4 play off spots. After that, I wouldn't like to guess. Teams go on runs and climb the table pretty rapidly, Reading for instance have won 5 out of 6 (I think). Leeds had a few wins and went from one end of the table to the other. Blues in fairness have been pretty consistent all season. Sheffield Wednesday hit a blip but have come back strongly. If we get there, I personally don't care who we meet, other than Blues. Blues would be a great leveler, as we saw in the recent derby and would also stretch the meaning of unpleasantness to beyond breaking point.
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Regarding the gap between us and Brighton there is a poll on one of their sites asking who is their biggest threat for 2nd place. The highest amount of votes went for us. Someone also pointed out that the difference between us and them now, is smaller than between them and Middlesbrough at the same time last season. Don't get me wrong, I think we'll do well to make the play-offs still as we will be beaten soon enough but we need to put together a good run of wins to get into contention.
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Regarding the gap between us and Brighton there is a poll on one of their sites asking who is their biggest threat for 2nd place. The highest amount of votes went for us. Someone also pointed out that the difference between us and them now, is smaller than between them and Middlesbrough at the same time last season. Don't get me wrong, I think we'll do well to make the play-offs still as we will be beaten soon enough but we need to put together a good run of wins to get into contention.
No we won't. In a complete reversal of last season's feeling, I'm now of the opinion that we'll never lose again.
Ergo our year for The Cup, too.
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Brighton are also massive bottlers, which is worth bearing mind.
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Regarding the gap between us and Brighton there is a poll on one of their sites asking who is their biggest threat for 2nd place. The highest amount of votes went for us. Someone also pointed out that the difference between us and them now, is smaller than between them and Middlesbrough at the same time last season. Don't get me wrong, I think we'll do well to make the play-offs still as we will be beaten soon enough but we need to put together a good run of wins to get into contention.
Just had a look at the poll. It says that Boro were 11 points behind them after 26 games, with a game in hand. If we could bridge the gap between now and Cardiff away, we'd have half a season plus a home game against them to catch them. Not impossible but they will be hardened after last season. Lets get Christmas out of the way and see where things stand. Currently, I'm not overly optimistic that we'll catch them but things do have a habit of changing very quickly in football. For now, I'm just grateful to be in with a shout of the play offs, something that I never thought possible after the defeat at Preston.
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Brighton are also massive bottlers, which is worth bearing mind.
Not sure that winning 7 and drawing 3 of their last 10 games last season is bottling it. And the three draws were against the sides that finished 1st, 2nd, and 5th.
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I think most people would now be surprised if we don't make the play offs. Top 2 would be miraculous and prob too much to hope for. Right now I think we'll finish 3rd or 4th.
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Brighton are also massive bottlers, which is worth bearing mind.
Not sure that winning 7 and drawing 3 of their last 10 games last season is bottling it. And the three draws were against the sides that finished 1st, 2nd, and 5th.
Bottled the play offs again. Wednesday hadn't beaten a top six side all season.
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Hardly massive bottlers losing in what is considered a lottery.
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This season has got the 74-75 season feeling about it.
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Brighton are also massive bottlers, which is worth bearing mind.
Not sure that winning 7 and drawing 3 of their last 10 games last season is bottling it. And the three draws were against the sides that finished 1st, 2nd, and 5th.
Bottled the play offs again. Wednesday hadn't beaten a top six side all season.
They absolutely battered Sheff Weds last season at home but got caught by the sucker punch. They aren't bottlers.
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Ads never says anything good about other teams and I like that !
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This season has got the 74-75 season feeling about it.
Something like this from Jan would be great - happy memories.
Sat Jan 11 Division 2 Bristol City Home Won 2-0
Wed Jan 15 LC Semi - 1 Leg Chester Away Drew 2-2
Sat Jan 18 Division 2 Oxford United Away Won 2-1
Wed Jan 22 LC Semi - 2 Leg Chester Home Won 3-2
(5-4 aggregate)
Sat Jan 25 FAC 4 Sheffield United Home Won 4-1
Sat Feb 1 Division 2 Notts County Away Won 3-1
Sat Feb 8 Division 2 Fulham Home Drew 1-1
Sat Feb 15 FAC 5 Ipswich Town Away Lost 2-3
Tue Feb 18 Division 2 Portsmouth Away Won 3-2
Sat Feb 22 Division 2 Manchester United Home Won 2-0
Sat Mar 1 LC Final Norwich City Wembley Won 1-0
Wed Mar 5 Division 2 Bolton Wanderers Home Drew 0-0
Sat Mar 8 Division 2 Nottingham Forest Away Won 3-2
Sat Mar 15 Division 2 Southampton Home Won 3-0
Sat Mar 22 Division 2 Orient Away Lost 0-1
Sat Mar 29 Division 2 West Bromwich Albion Home Won 3-1
Tue Apr 1 Division 2 Millwall Away Won 3-1
Wed Apr 9 Division 2 Cardiff City Home Won 2-0
Sat Apr 12 Division 2 Oldham Athletic Home Won 5-0
Sat Apr 19 Division 2 Blackpool Away Won 3-0
Wed Apr 23 Division 2 Sheffield Wednesday Away Won 4-0
Sat Apr 26 Division 2 Sunderland Home Won 2-0
Wed Apr 30 Division 2 Norwich City Away Won 4-0
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Brighton are also massive bottlers, which is worth bearing mind.
As are Newcastle.
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Regarding the gap between us and Brighton there is a poll on one of their sites asking who is their biggest threat for 2nd place. The highest amount of votes went for us. Someone also pointed out that the difference between us and them now, is smaller than between them and Middlesbrough at the same time last season. Don't get me wrong, I think we'll do well to make the play-offs still as we will be beaten soon enough but we need to put together a good run of wins to get into contention.
Just had a look at the poll. It says that Boro were 11 points behind them after 26 games, with a game in hand. If we could bridge the gap between now and Cardiff away, we'd have half a season plus a home game against them to catch them. Not impossible but they will be hardened after last season. Lets get Christmas out of the way and see where things stand. Currently, I'm not overly optimistic that we'll catch them but things do have a habit of changing very quickly in football. For now, I'm just grateful to be in with a shout of the play offs, something that I never thought possible after the defeat at Preston.
It was actually Brighton doing the chasing last season as Boro were 5 points clear and 11 points ahead of Brighton around mid January. At this stage last season they were 2 points ahead of Boro and 4 ahead of Burnley so not a lot between the eventual top 3.
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Hardly massive bottlers losing in what is considered a lottery.
They've bottled in a number of times. Their own message boards are concerned about their bottling. Bockle, bockle, bockle.
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Ads never says anything good about other teams and I like that !
Its not my fault they're all ******.
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Ads never says anything good about other teams and I like that !
Its not my fault they're all c***s.
Righteous brother
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Ads never says anything good about other teams and I like that !
Its not my fault they're all c***s.
Smiley thing
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No catching Newcastle thanks to RDM.
I can see Brighton dropping a few points over the next few weeks. Play-offs at best.
Reading I know nothing about.
Leeds look fragile at home but pretty solid away.
The Unflushables won't be able to keep up their momentum though they're tough to beat, like us only losing 3 times.
Norwich unless they sort out their defence may as well can it a day.
Huddersfield are punching way above their weight and have a tiny squad to last the season.
Sheff Weds should be pushing for a play-off place.
Derby will join them.
Fulham won't be.
Nobody below us concerns me. I certainly expect to see us in the play-off places by Christmas and pushing for second place until the end of the season.
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No catching Newcastle thanks to RDM.
I can see Brighton dropping a few points over the next few weeks. Play-offs at best.
Reading I know nothing about.
Leeds look fragile at home but pretty solid away.
The Unflushables won't be able to keep up their momentum though they're tough to beat, like us only losing 3 times.
Norwich unless they sort out their defence may as well can it a day.
Huddersfield are punching way above their weight and have a tiny squad to last the season.
Sheff Weds should be pushing for a play-off place.
Derby will join them.
Fulham won't be.
Nobody below us concerns me. I certainly expect to see us in the play-off places by Christmas and pushing for second place until the end of the season.
I like this and reads well apart from the complete ignorance of reading as they are decent team and Stam so far doing a great job though like all those teams and you can include Newcastle they could do a norwuch and have a complete lack of form and lose several matches in a row.
I like to think we 'll still be in frame for automatic promo wether it's at top or 2nd can definitely do it as Burnley last season are a great example as were Barnsley in league below and Leicester. Momentum goes along way.
Utv
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Rudy's post did read like one of yours Skillz, informative and opinionated.
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What happeneds during ACN will determi e what happened S this season. Get something good cover who hit the ground running and we're fine if not we may lose any momentum we have.
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Our last game this season ?
Home to Brighton.
Ooh I say !
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Get practicing,
"WERE GONNA WIN THE LEAGUE"
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Rudy's post did read like one of yours Skillz, informative and opinionated.
Dearest Eamonn aren't most posts informative and opinionated on here by each and every poster maybe not all times due to digression and expletives to express and explain debate and feeling .
Up the villa
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No catching Newcastle thanks to RDM.
I can see Brighton dropping a few points over the next few weeks. Play-offs at best.
Reading I know nothing about.
Leeds look fragile at home but pretty solid away.
The Unflushables won't be able to keep up their momentum though they're tough to beat, like us only losing 3 times.
Norwich unless they sort out their defence may as well can it a day.
Huddersfield are punching way above their weight and have a tiny squad to last the season.
Sheff Weds should be pushing for a play-off place.
Derby will join them.
Fulham won't be.
Nobody below us concerns me. I certainly expect to see us in the play-off places by Christmas and pushing for second place until the end of the season.
I like this and reads well apart from the complete ignorance of reading as they are decent team and Stam so far doing a great job though like all those teams and you can include Newcastle they could do a norwuch and have a complete lack of form and lose several matches in a row.
I like to think we 'll still be in frame for automatic promo wether it's at top or 2nd can definitely do it as Burnley last season are a great example as were Barnsley in league below and Leicester. Momentum goes along way.
Utv
I like the idea of Newcastle having a poor spell but can't see it happening. I forgot Stam is at Reading but can't see them lasting, play-offs at best. We just need to focus on ourselves, the rest will fall away as we climb the table. Second place would be an amazing achievement but certainly within our grasp.
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Rudy's post did read like one of yours Skillz, informative and opinionated.
digression and expletives
Up the villa
It's what makes H&V great.
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No catching Newcastle thanks to RDM.
I can see Brighton dropping a few points over the next few weeks. Play-offs at best.
Reading I know nothing about.
Leeds look fragile at home but pretty solid away.
The Unflushables won't be able to keep up their momentum though they're tough to beat, like us only losing 3 times.
Norwich unless they sort out their defence may as well can it a day.
Huddersfield are punching way above their weight and have a tiny squad to last the season.
Sheff Weds should be pushing for a play-off place.
Derby will join them.
Fulham won't be.
Nobody below us concerns me. I certainly expect to see us in the play-off places by Christmas and pushing for second place until the end of the season.
I like this and reads well apart from the complete ignorance of reading as they are decent team and Stam so far doing a great job though like all those teams and you can include Newcastle they could do a norwuch and have a complete lack of form and lose several matches in a row.
I like to think we 'll still be in frame for automatic promo wether it's at top or 2nd can definitely do it as Burnley last season are a great example as were Barnsley in league below and Leicester. Momentum goes along way.
Utv
I like the idea of Newcastle having a poor spell but can't see it happening. I forgot Stam is at Reading but can't see them lasting, play-offs at best. We just need to focus on ourselves, the rest will fall away as we climb the table. Second place would be an amazing achievement but certainly within our grasp.
Reading may be affected negatively by a takeover (announced today) that is apparently going to happen in the next couple of weeks (or alternatively they may getting January funds?!) http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38156711
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Having had a moochie at the current table and fixtures for this round I see the villa match as a great chance for 3 points taking to cusp of playoffs. Its also a much needed winning match as chance to gain on top 2.
Newcastle away at forest see dropped points again. Draw or loss. Cardiff v Brighton draw .
Which reduces gap for top 2.
Come on the villa!
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I'm really not looking at the points and how others around us are doing (save one club) as we are in a position of having to just make sure we're doing the right thing and picking up points at the moment. That saying beating Leeds will be massive because it will put us right at the door of the play-offs and it will change the mood and atmosphere around games. Last time we were down the Villa crowd had a swagger which translated onto the park. At the moment the crowd is still tentative because of what has gone on before and under RDM. A sniff of the promotion places and the crowd will change too. We will have beaten a team in the play-off places away from home in a part of the season where it starts to matter. Win against Leeds and I doubt we'll drop too many points in December as teh crowd and team will be too strong for many an opponent.
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It really is the old cliché of being a marathon not a snickers.
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It really is the old cliché of being a marathon not a snickers.
Its certainly not too choco-late to make promotion push . And we have a squad of skillfull players who got some twix . When it comes to the crunchie the Smarties money on Bruce and boys
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Can we stay on Topic please?
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Can we stay on Topic please?
It would certainly give us all a Boost if we could do so, yes.
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Can we stay on Topic please?
It would certainly give us all a Boost if we could do so, yes.
Richard E Revels in these punathons.
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Can we stay on Topic please?
It would certainly give us all a Boost if we could do so, yes.
We re not a million miles from mars away
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yes we are...
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I'm looking foward to the open top parade on the Double Decker already ....
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It really is the old cliché of being a marathon not a snickers.
Its certainly not too choco-late to make promotion push . And we have a squad of skillfull players who got some twix . When it comes to the crunchie the Smarties money on Bruce and boys
We need to Toblerone the KitKat out of Leeds and then Double Decker the Picnic out of Wigan and Norwich. It goes without Twirl that we have to Turkish Delight the Flake out of Burton.
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Lol.
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It really is the old cliché of being a marathon not a snickers.
Its certainly not too choco-late to make promotion push . And we have a squad of skillfull players who got some twix . When it comes to the crunchie the Smarties money on Bruce and boys
We need to Toblerone the KitKat out of Leeds and then Double Decker the Picnic out of Wigan and Norwich. It goes without Twirl that we have to Turkish Delight the Flake out of Burton.
smarties pants
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It really is the old cliché of being a marathon not a snickers.
Its certainly not too choco-late to make promotion push . And we have a squad of skillfull players who got some twix . When it comes to the crunchie the Smarties money on Bruce and boys
We need to Toblerone the KitKat out of Leeds and then Double Decker the Picnic out of Wigan and Norwich. It goes without Twirl that we have to Turkish Delight the Flake out of Burton.
smarties pants
bruce just needs to get the lads to press the right BUTTONS
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Not a pun but we had some swagger in the Cardiff game. Make it important later in the season and the atmosphere will be a cauldron.
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Cheltenham, I should cocoa. The Lion will will roar at Elland Road and Leeds will Rolo over, the teams above us continue to Drifter away and our fans recieve a massive Boost as we continue our journey for the Premier League Bounty.
Now, let's get back on Topic.
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They like us are all Aeros and villains
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They like us are all Aeros and villains
Pun of the season
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Whatever, I expect us to be in the Big Six by the end of the season
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Bruce will come up smelling of Roses if we get a win at Elland Road.
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Bruce will come up smelling of Roses if we get a win at Elland Road.
Bruce is certainly growing on me. It's a treat to watch the Villa these days.
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Curly Wurly.
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Bruce will come up smelling of Roses if we get a win at Elland Road.
Bruce is certainly growing on me. It's a treat to watch the Villa these days.
It really is quality... street.
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Having had a moochie at the current table and fixtures for this round I see the villa match as a great chance for 3 points taking to cusp of playoffs. Its also a much needed winning match as chance to gain on top 2.
Newcastle away at forest see dropped points again. Draw or loss. Cardiff v Brighton draw .
Which reduces gap for top 2.
Come on the villa!
Now a win tomorrow sees the gap to 1st place in our sights!
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I'm no mathematician but win win win and we will get there.
But don't look back in anger
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You're all Nutty bar none ( one for the older ones amongst us)
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You're all Nutty bar none ( one for the older ones amongst us)
You mean "most" of us then:-)
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You're all Nutty bar none ( one for the older ones amongst us)
Joking aside, if we do get promoted this season, the Milky bars are on me.
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You're all Nutty bar none ( one for the older ones amongst us)
Joking aside, if we do get promoted this season, the Milky bars are on me.
It texan enormous amount of bottle to say that, could cost you hundreds and thousands.
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You're all Nutty bar none ( one for the older ones amongst us)
Joking aside, if we do get promoted this season, the Milky bars are on me.
It texan enormous amount of bottle to say that, could cost you hundreds and thousands.
Possibly, I forgot to add however that my bank balance is about as much use as a chocolate teapot.
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You're all Nutty bar none ( one for the older ones amongst us)
Joking aside, if we do get promoted this season, the Milky bars are on me.
It texan enormous amount of bottle to say that, could cost you hundreds and thousands.
Possibly, I forgot to add however that my bank balance is about as much use as a chocolate teapot.
Yor kidding me,
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If we get promoted it will be absolute Bliss. One for the very old ones on here.
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I think promotion will see some exciting players join our club.
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We need Neil Walnut t whip this team into shape
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I think promotion will see some exciting players join our club.
That really takes the biscuit.
-
I think promotion will see some exciting players join our club.
That really takes the biscuit.
I reckon we'll bring in a Trio of players.
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I think promotion will see some exciting players join our club.
That really takes the biscuit.
I reckon we'll bring in a Trio of players.
Let's hope our good players won't want to breakaway from us.
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After Eight games, Bruce's record is comparable with United
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I think promotion will see some exciting players join our club.
That really takes the biscuit.
I reckon we'll bring in a Trio of players.
Not one, not two but three players in. A goalie, midfielder and a central defender too.
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After Eight games, Bruce's record is comparable with United
Minted.
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I think promotion will see some exciting players join our club.
That really takes the biscuit.
I reckon we'll bring in a Trio of players.
Not one, not two but three players in. A goalie, midfielder and a central defender too.
I'd keep Ross Mcaramac though hopefully turn out to be as valued as Yorkie.
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I think promotion will see some exciting players join our club.
That really takes the biscuit.
I reckon we'll bring in a Trio of players.
Not one, not two but three players in. A goalie, midfielder and a central defender too.
I'd keep Ross Mcaramac though hopefully turn out to be as valued as Yorkie.
Nah, he couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo.
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Taxi for Ross McCaramac and BE.
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I once got slated for suggesting Ross McCormack would be another Shaun Maloney. He's proving me right so far and at this point in time I would drop him down in my estimation to Gary Penrice level. Seeing how much he enjoyed having his Leeds kit wearing son as mascot on Saturday suggests that he is far from committed to this club, I really don't know why we signed him.
With regards to Promotion Maths - we need 14 wins out of 27 games to get anywhere near the top 6. Realistically its not going to happen, get some consistency over the rest of this season and plan for a shot at the title next season.
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I am lost as to how it's unrealistic to assume one of the best squads, with one of the best managers, with the richest owner, will be incapable of making up a 6/7 point gap.
We have to play Norwich twice, Wednesday, Reading and Small Heath at home and Brighton at home, Leeds too. Especially when Villa Park is the toughest place in the league to come and get three points.
Bruce will be hugely disappointed if we don't make the Play offs and rightly so.
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I once got slated for suggesting Ross McCormack would be another Shaun Maloney. He's proving me right so far and at this point in time I would drop him down in my estimation to Gary Penrice level. Seeing how much he enjoyed having his Leeds kit wearing son as mascot on Saturday suggests that he is far from committed to this club, I really don't know why we signed him.
With regards to Promotion Maths - we need 14 wins out of 27 games to get anywhere near the top 6. Realistically its not going to happen, get some consistency over the rest of this season and plan for a shot at the title next season.
How ridiculous is this? We need to catch up 6 points. In 27 games. You really think that is unrealistic? If we had won on Sat we would have been 3 points behind Sheffield Wed in 6th. That's how much difference 1 game can make.
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14 in 27 is pretty much 50% win ratio.
We've been doing that haven't we....winning the home game and then failing to win the following away game.
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If we keep the form we have done over the first eight games of Bruce's tenure then we'll finish well inside the top six.
A chance to improve the squad, particularly the midfield, in January, should give us a boost.
Wigan, Burton and Leeds at home you've got to be looking at 9 points.
Norwich and QPR away equally you'd hope we would avoid defeat at Carrow Road and beat QPR.
We've got less room for margin of error, but we're a much better side than most.
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Taxi for Ross McCaramac and BE.
Applause.
-
I thank thee.
-
Read it (http://www.doyouremember.co.uk/memory/applause-bar) again.
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Sugar missed that one. Somebody needs to complete a toffee log of everytimeout a chocolate pun is missed.
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Tonight the music seems so loud
I wish that we could lose this crowd
Maybe it's better this way
We'd hurt each other with the things we'd want to say
We could have been so good together
We could have lived this dance forever
But no one's gonna dance with me
Careless whisper
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Come on you Lions, making up 6 points is possible, remember, it's a Marathon, not a sprint.
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Forget the puns, let's keep this thread on Topic.
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Read it (http://www.doyouremember.co.uk/memory/applause-bar) again.
Magnificent, you should recieve an award for that. Maybe a Golden Cup or something.
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Read it (http://www.doyouremember.co.uk/memory/applause-bar) again.
Magnificent, you should recieve an award for that. Maybe a Golden Cup or something.
That was good, wasn't it? It's no Secret that BE is puntastic.
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Read it (http://www.doyouremember.co.uk/memory/applause-bar) again.
Magnificent, you should recieve an award for that. Maybe a Golden Cup or something.
That was good, wasn't it? It's no Secret that BE is puntastic.
I doff my cap to thee also, I'd been looking for a way in with the 'Secret' without making a Fudge of it.
Whatever happened to them by the way? They came, they were ace, then they disappeared again.
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Read it (http://www.doyouremember.co.uk/memory/applause-bar) again.
Magnificent, you should recieve an award for that. Maybe a Golden Cup or something.
That was good, wasn't it? It's no Secret that BE is puntastic.
I doff my cap to thee also, I'd been looking for a way in with the 'Secret' without making a Fudge of it.
Whatever happened to them by the way? They came, they were ace, then they disappeared again.
They weren't around for long were they! Great though. And thank you. I had to take a Time Out and think about it.
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Wispa it carefully but we are starting to turn it around.
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If we get automatic promotion we might have to do the old double decker parade through the city.
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If we get automatic promotion we might have to do the old double decker parade through the city.
Those are Celebrations I'd love to see.
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They would all be Hero's
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At least we should have a good allocation if we're in the mix at the end of season. Blackburn is the last away game and Newcastle have been given (and sold out) 6850 for their trip to Ewood.
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Celebrations Time if we get that many!
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At least we should have a good allocation if we're in the mix at the end of season. Blackburn is the last away game and Newcastle have been given (and sold out) 6850 for their trip to Ewood.
Surely you mean the Pic n mix.
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Brighton winning means we are now 15 points off the automatic places. We would need to be the form team in the league to make up that kind of gap, which I cant really see yet.
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Nobody has a chance of getting out of the Championship bar six.
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Win today though and we are 12 with Brighton to play. Can we make up 9 points? Yes is the answer, but much depends on how we strengthen the midfield in January.
The play offs are well within grasp.
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Nobody has a chance of getting out of the Championship bar six.
The packaging looked very cheap but I preferred them to Kit Kat.
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They would all be Hero's
Who's Hero?
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They would all be Hero's
Who's Hero?
Cadbury Heroes ?
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So important we won today. That gap is down to three points, very doable.
A win Tuesday would be massive.
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At the rate Newcastle and Brighton are racking up wins they will both finish well over 90 points.
We would need to win 4 out of every 5 games for the rest of the season to catch them. I would say impossible, unless one of them starts to drop points badly.
So, although today was a good result in the end we just don't look capable enough to put teams away game after game. Given the money invested in our front line, that's disappointing.
I don't think we can blame our midfield for that, 14 shots today, only 1 goal.
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Brighton are massively unconvincing everytime I see them. But they grind them out. Maybe we've learnt a lesson of late?
Bruce is turning 1 point into 3; Reading, Fulham and now Wigan all fit that category.
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Fuck it, if we don't make the automatic spots, I'd more than settle for a day out in North London in early Summer.
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Fuck it, if we don't make the automatic spots, I'd more than settle for a day out in North London in early Summer.
I'd badly disfigure your arm to be at Wembley
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We will finish in the top 6.
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I am now pretty confident we'll finish top six
We do need to find the right attacking blend still though. We basically spent all of the benteke money on four strikers but none of them can really play that role. Ayew and McCormack want to play deeper, gestede is immobile and needs a partner, kodjia doesn't want to play with his back to goal.
Bruce needs to find an answer but without buying another striker I'm still struggling to see what it is. Could be a diamond maybe with grealish behind kodjia and ayew? Would be harsh on adomah but it's the only way I can think of playing to our strikers strengths
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I am now pretty confident we'll finish top six
We do need to find the right attacking blend still though. We basically spent all of the benteke money on four strikers but none of them can really play that role. Ayew and McCormack want to play deeper, gestede is immobile and needs a partner, kodjia doesn't want to play with his back to goal.
Bruce needs to find an answer but without buying another striker I'm still struggling to see what it is. Could be a diamond maybe with grealish behind kodjia and ayew? Would be harsh on adomah but it's the only way I can think of playing to our strikers strengths
Yep, considering the attacking options we have, 22 goals scored from 20 matches is embarrassing and will be what stops us going up if that happens.
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I am now pretty confident we'll finish top six
We do need to find the right attacking blend still though. We basically spent all of the benteke money on four strikers but none of them can really play that role. Ayew and McCormack want to play deeper, gestede is immobile and needs a partner, kodjia doesn't want to play with his back to goal.
Bruce needs to find an answer but without buying another striker I'm still struggling to see what it is. Could be a diamond maybe with grealish behind kodjia and ayew? Would be harsh on adomah but it's the only way I can think of playing to our strikers strengths
I've said for some time that an out and out number 9 is probably far more important in terms of priority than a lot of people think.
We play 433. A midffield threesome that includes Jedinak and Grealish means only 1 place left for grabs.
I know a decent striker will be tough to get in January but the difference that he would make shouldn't be underestimated.
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I am now pretty confident we'll finish top six
We do need to find the right attacking blend still though. We basically spent all of the benteke money on four strikers but none of them can really play that role. Ayew and McCormack want to play deeper, gestede is immobile and needs a partner, kodjia doesn't want to play with his back to goal.
Bruce needs to find an answer but without buying another striker I'm still struggling to see what it is. Could be a diamond maybe with grealish behind kodjia and ayew? Would be harsh on adomah but it's the only way I can think of playing to our strikers strengths
I've said for some time that an out and out number 9 is probably far more important in terms of priority than a lot of people think.
We play 433. A midffield threesome that includes Jedinak and Grealish means only 1 place left for grabs.
I know a decent striker will be tough to get in January but the difference that he would make shouldn't be underestimated.
Exactly right, look what a difference Gayle has made to Newcastle. We've actually lost fewer games than them, but a regular goal scorer has turned draws into wins for them, and narrow wins in hammerings.
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We've got three strikers who scored 20 goals a season last time they were at this level. We are not short of goal scorers!
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We've got three strikers who scored 20 goals a season last time they were at this level. We are not short of goal scorers!
It is all relevant to how we play. Gestede & McCormack were each part of a 2 man strike force (I'm not sure about Kodjia but he isn't a number 9 anyway)
If we continue with one up top, which is 99% likely, given that this is the way that Bruce plays, then we don;t have a natural number 9. It's like asking Grealish to play Jedinak's role or vice versa.
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Everyone keeps telling me Steve Bruce is just the sort of experienced manager we need. If he can't manage to get the best out of three strikers who can all score 20 goals a season at this level then he'll be just as culpable as anyone if we don't go up.
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Everyone keeps telling me Steve Bruce is just the sort of experienced manager we need. If he can't manage to get the best out of three strikers who can all score 20 goals a season at this level then he'll be just as culpable as anyone if we don't go up.
He is getting the best out of them.
Do you seriously think that McCormack is going to score 20 goals as an out and out number 9 or playing wide in Adomah's role?
We play 433. The only one of the 3 who is suited to that is Kodjia and that is only if he is played wide left.
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We've got three strikers who scored 20 goals a season last time they were at this level. We are not short of goal scorers!
Agreed yet we've managed 2 more than bottom placed Rotherham. Maybe we're spoiled for choice? As I've mentioned after every game, I'm still struggling to see what we're trying to do in attack. I hope it's not the RDM approach - get the ball to them and let them sort it out. It never worked for him and it's not working now, assuming that's Bruce's plan.
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Everyone keeps telling me Steve Bruce is just the sort of experienced manager we need. If he can't manage to get the best out of three strikers who can all score 20 goals a season at this level then he'll be just as culpable as anyone if we don't go up.
He is getting the best out of them.
Do you seriously think that McCormack is going to score 20 goals as an out and out number 9 or playing wide in Adomah's role?
We play 433. The only one of the 3 who is suited to that is Kodjia and that is only if he is played wide left.
I don't think enforcing a system on a group of players which doesn't play to their strengths is "getting the most out of them".
I'm lothe to criticise Bruce too much as he's giving us results for the first time in most of a decade but Kodja, McCormick, Gestede and Ayew would get in to pretty much every team in the division and yet we've scored 2 more goals than Rotherham. It's not good enough and if we don't make the playoffs is going to be the lack of goals that does for us.
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Everyone keeps telling me Steve Bruce is just the sort of experienced manager we need. If he can't manage to get the best out of three strikers who can all score 20 goals a season at this level then he'll be just as culpable as anyone if we don't go up.
He is getting the best out of them.
Do you seriously think that McCormack is going to score 20 goals as an out and out number 9 or playing wide in Adomah's role?
We play 433. The only one of the 3 who is suited to that is Kodjia and that is only if he is played wide left.
I don't think enforcing a system on a group of players which doesn't play to their strengths is "getting the most out of them".
I'm lothe to criticise Bruce too much as he's giving us results for the first time in most of a decade but Kodja, McCormick, Gestede and Ayew would get in to pretty much every team in the division and yet we've scored 2 more goals than Rotherham. It's not good enough and if we don't make the playoffs is going to be the lack of goals that does for us.
I agree that if we don't make the play offs, it will be through lack of goals.
That is why I said that we need an out and out number 9.
Players should fit into a managers system, not the other way round. If they can't then a manager will want to consider bringing in his own players. That is the way it works.
Remember we had all these strikers playing for the first 11 games and we were hovering just above the relegation zone.
People seem to think that a creative midfielder is going to be the answer. It isn't. We already have a creative midfielder in Grealish. We need someone alongside Jedinak.
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Everyone keeps telling me Steve Bruce is just the sort of experienced manager we need. If he can't manage to get the best out of three strikers who can all score 20 goals a season at this level then he'll be just as culpable as anyone if we don't go up.
He is getting the best out of them.
Do you seriously think that McCormack is going to score 20 goals as an out and out number 9 or playing wide in Adomah's role?
We play 433. The only one of the 3 who is suited to that is Kodjia and that is only if he is played wide left.
I don't think enforcing a system on a group of players which doesn't play to their strengths is "getting the most out of them".
I'm lothe to criticise Bruce too much as he's giving us results for the first time in most of a decade but Kodja, McCormick, Gestede and Ayew would get in to pretty much every team in the division and yet we've scored 2 more goals than Rotherham. It's not good enough and if we don't make the playoffs is going to be the lack of goals that does for us.
Taking a leaf from another thread, i still say a driving force through the middlle of the midfield would help a lot. We are passing the ball to the wingers from very deep positions giving them a lot to do. Somebody like the snake would have ran with the ball through the middle and then passed in much more penetrative areas for the wide players to attack.
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Could basically have two attacking teams. One is the elastic Ayew, Grealish, Kodjia approach and if that's not working drag 'em off and put on the classic winger plus two in the middle Gestede, Adomah, McCormick. Or vice versa. Mix it up a bit, job done.
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Okay what are the stats saying now.
Automatic is unlikely but I think results between now and end of January Will sort out the wanted from the wantnons
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We are no nearer the play offs now than when Bruce took over. We are much further away from 2nd place. We have 10 less games to bridge the gap and our last 3 performances have been abysmal.
We somehow need to keep in touch with the top 6 and limp through to January. Currently, I cannot see 2 or 3 "Bruce" signings making that much difference. I've yet to see one game when we've been convincing.
I'm a little bit concerned for the first time tonight. I really don't see where the goals are going to come from. Gabby doesn't look like he's going to score again, ever and he wasn't that prolific, even at his peak. McCormack is never going to score in the system that we play and Ayew looks half the player he was last season.
I'm really flat tonight & any positives will be gratefully accepted.
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I'm really flat tonight & any positives will be gratefully accepted.
We won't be relegated. Hopefully.
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We are no nearer the play offs now than when Bruce took over. We are much further away from 2nd place. We have 10 less games to bridge the gap and our last 3 performances have been abysmal.
We somehow need to keep in touch with the top 6 and limp through to January. Currently, I cannot see 2 or 3 "Bruce" signings making that much difference. I've yet to see one game when we've been convincing.
I'm a little bit concerned for the first time tonight. I really don't see where the goals are going to come from. Gabby doesn't look like he's going to score again, ever and he wasn't that prolific, even at his peak. McCormack is never going to score in the system that we play and Ayew looks half the player he was last season.
I'm really flat tonight & any positives will be gratefully accepted.
You're a decent writer who makes a lot of sense. I feel same as you .
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Over to you carol volderman
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17 points off an automatic place, probably fair to say we aren't making that up! And 7 off the play-offs.
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Surely we were far more points off the top 6 when RDM got potted?
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10 points.
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We're nine points off and have to win tomorrow just to reduce it to six. Need a decent run of results to stay in touch.
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All of the top 6/7 seem to win every week. We've got to put winning run together to have any chance of just play offs
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Top 6 very consistent at moment , we had a bad start and now not able to match that.
Long way to go but looks very tough for us at the moment
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Beating norwich and leeds would have been a start. Until we start winning games like that we will never catch up.
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We can go on about points gaps all we like. But we need to be good enough to compete which we simply aren't at the moment despite spending £50m in the summer. I just cannot see us getting into the top six at this rate.
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Over to you carol volderman
Well thankyou.
First, forget the automatic spots. It needs a miracle.
Playoffs, on average requires 74 points but at the moment 6th placed Sheffield Weds are on track for 78 points.
We have 28 points. We need a further 50 points to be in the mix. We have 25 games left starting at QPR tomorrow.
2 points a game for the rest of the season. That's the same form Newcastle and Brighton have been in from the start of the season. We just can't afford any more bad form of 2 losses in 3 games and badly need a run of 4-5 wins like Derby to take the pressure off.
The only positive, of the 12 sides above us, we have already played 9 of them away, so in theory the second half of our season is easier.
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We will make the Play Offs no sweat.
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Until we learn to win away games on anything approaching a reasonably regular basis we won't be bothering the top 6.
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There is now a clear incompatiblity between what we need and capability of our manager. Bruce has averaged 1.8 points per game in his successful promotion seasons and that's exactly what he is achieving with us however as we need 2.0 per game play offs would appear to be not on unless teams in and around the play off group drop more points than average in the next 25 games and sixth place is secured with 73 to 75 points.
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Until we learn to win away games on anything approaching a reasonably regular basis we won't be bothering the top 6.
You watch, we'll crack that and then start losing at home.
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There is now a clear incompatiblity between what we need and capability of our manager. Bruce has averaged 1.8 points per game in his successful promotion seasons and that's exactly what he is achieving with us however as we need 2.0 per game play offs would appear to be not on unless teams in and around the play off group drop more points than average in the next 25 games and sixth place is secured with 73 to 75 points.
Doctor Tony will enable SB to produce the requisite additional 0.2 ppg by using Ch’an meditation practice to release his true capabilities and achieve silent illumination.
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Tomorrow is really looking like a must win game now given the results of our rivals in midweek and today.
This time last week we just 3 off 6th, now it's 8 I think.
Our away form is dismal, we need to break that mentality and three points would set us up very nicely for two home games over xmas.
If we can win tomorrow and then beat Burton that would give us 34 points after 23 games. Over a full season that's 68....generally you need 75 points to be sure of top 6 so we'd need to churn out two more wins and a draw than what we've done already....should be achievable given our terrible results under RDM.
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Sadly it's 9 points.
We've scored 6 goals in 11 games away from home, the lowest in the division. When Rotherham score more away from home you know you have problems.
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On a positive note, for me anyway, now that Brighton are 20 points ahead of us, it takes away the "every game is a cup tie" syndrome that I was feeling. We are now firmly placed in a battle to reach the play offs and the odd draw or loss here & there is not going to put too much of a dent into that target.
How ironic that only a few weeks ago, a win at Brighton would have seen us just 10 points behind them-More or less what we now are currently from the play offs.
I don't want to start sounding like a stuck record but win, draw, win, draw, loss is not going to get us up the table. We need to string winning sequences together as all of the teams above us have done.
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Looking at the table makes me cringe.
I don't see it happening this year..
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We'll still be in this division next year. The team just lacks any real chemistry. With the exception of a couple of hours play we've been mostly lackluster and have barely created any meaningful chances. Really disappointing.
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I didn't expect us to get up this season, I thought we'd be around mid table. After the complete mess we were in it was never going to be a quick turnaround.
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I think the wake up call should have been after the Leeds game, where they were there for the taking and we were so negative. We were lucky to beat Wigan and then another non-performance at another team devoid of confidence. Bruce has now come out and said it is not good enough, I really hope he changes things tomorrow and makes us a more attacking unit. I have defended Westwood, but he was truly awful at Norwich and we need legs alongside Jedinak. There is an awful long time to go and I think the play offs is certainly still on, but we need to show some balls and go for these teams, starting with the little knob aka as Holloway
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Still think it's possible
But I think we're so far off being a good side with an established pattern of play that it may be best to wait for next season
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28 from 21 equates to 56 from 42 plus a couple, no where near where we need to be.
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Of course the play offs are still possible, this division is mad. The manager needs to find the best system and January will help him. I am a bit concerned by his comments about Kodjia being best out wide, as Leeds and Norwich especially he was anonymous. I want him up top with someone nearby (McCormack?) or even Rudy, who will get goals if given the right service. I think 4-4-2 is the way to stretch teams
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Norwich were 8th - 0 points; very poor display.
Leeds were 6th and are now 5th - 0 points; the start of three lacklustre performances.
Brighton were and still are second - 1 point; should have won.
Small Heath were top 6 and have now dropped out - 1 point; we've never played well at the Sty in my life time. They're always needle full, scrappy, close games.
Reading were top six, now 3rd - 3 points; better side and deserved the winner.
Our away form is poor, but it's not like the last five away games could have been much harder. All top six bar Norwich, with a local derby to boot.
Everybody has to come to B6. It's 9 points now but three wins in a row likely puts us a maximum of 4 behind 5th place Leeds.
That's what we've got to keep doing. Beating these shit houses at home, which we invariably find a way to do and alleviate some pressure by winning away.
QPR are utter Blues, we need to go there and win, I think we will too. Then Burton and Leeds offer another 6 points to cap the year off before we make it rain in January with the filthy dollar.
I'll eat all the hats if we are not top 6.
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Ads, I admire your optimism, but we have to start really playing as a team in a system that suits us and think we are far from that at the moment. Lets hope tomorrow we will see a slightly different system and take the game to inferior opposition.
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Prior to Norwich we were taking 2 points a game. After tomorrow we will be back up to the statistic, or as near as damn it. This despite us not having got into our stride.
We wasted 10 games with a chump, it's cost us automatic promotion, but I struggle to see a singular reason why we can't make the top 6.
21 from 11 would mean automatic promotion extrapolated across the season. For us it means play offs, a trip to Wembley and a trip back home.
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Jeez, gloom and doom or what? Still half a season to play.
We'll get in the top 6.
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Too right. Last week is was all fruity lions and rear view mirror memes. Now because Bruce has lost 2 of his last 10 it's curtains and some sage nodding about how "it was mid table all along".
You don't spend 50 million and sack your manager after 10 games for promotion "next year". 9 points from Sheffield fucking Wednesday. It'll be like shelling peas.
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Or if we lose tomorrow we've gained 1 point on the top 6 since Bruce took over. Even if we win it's 4 points gained in 11 games. Sadly I don't think it will be so simple Ads.
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Someone needs to show me where we are going to get to 72 points which I think is fairly average for the play offs. So another 44 points. Doesn't sound as bad when I put it like that.
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We won't lose so why are you worried?
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For the reasons stated obviously.
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Tomorrow is another day, lets win that and see where we are and what we have to do. A lot of the away games remaining are not against teams ahead of us, there is a long way to go but Bruce can do it
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For the reasons stated obviously.
Do you not think we will improve?
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Almost certainly when we (hopefully) add some midfielders in Jan, but not sure we'll improve enough. As I said even if we win we'll have gained 4 points on 6th in 11 games despite a record of W6 D3 L2. The first 11 games are fucking it for us as it leaves us very little wiggle room as we've found out after 2 defeats in 10.
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Win tomorrow and it's 21 points from 11 games. That's automatic promotion form. How can that be anything but improvement? Despite no midfield and not really firing on all cylinders yet.
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You'll have to point out where I said we haven't improved. Again, it's whether we can improve enough to make up for giving everyone else an 11 game start.
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You said we will.improve in the future, specifically January. It implies the improvement has yet to begin.
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RDM left us so much ground to make up.
Anyone know how many points we were behind Huddersfield in the table after Preston?
We never caught up with them the other week but lost at Leeds and since then they've gone on a good run again and are now 11 points clear which isn't great.
Frustrating when we start to get close to the top 6 they all suddenly remember how to win again and pull clear of us.
I'm still actually confident of top 6 but tomorrow is the sort of game we need to be convincing in and win to show we mean business.
I'd be really disappointed if we start again negative and also tentative which seem to go together for our away games bar Brighton.
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We've obviously improved on the first 11 games, we also obviously need to improve further still to make the top 6.
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RDM left us so much ground to make up.
Anyone know how many points we were behind Huddersfield in the table after Preston?
15 points.
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Win tomorrow and it's 21 points from 11 games. That's automatic promotion form. How can that be anything but improvement? Despite no midfield and not really firing on all cylinders yet.
Let's make sure we win first.
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RDM left us so much ground to make up.
Anyone know how many points we were behind Huddersfield in the table after Preston?
15 points.
I'm pretty sure we got the gap to them down to about 4 points two weeks ago and then at that point Huddersfield decided to start winning again and it's now 11 points.
Still a long way to go but we really don't have much margin for error...another 5 or 6 winless run and our play off bid will probably be over.
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Yep, 4 points after the Cardiff game.
That's the point i'm trying to make and why I don't think it will be easy finishing top 6. I'm still very hopeful we will but we've left ourselves very little wiggle room because of that opening 11 games.
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I am a little pist and up at 7 for the game. I was fuming after Norwich, but I hope Bruce will do his tactics and go for teams.
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Win tomorrow and it's 21 points from 11 games. That's automatic promotion form.
Given that both Newcastle and Brighton are running at more than two points a game on what basis is 21 points from 11 games (even if we achieve that) automatic promotion form?
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Win tomorrow and it's 21 points from 11 games. That's automatic promotion form.
Given that both Newcastle and Brighton are running at more than two points a game on what basis is 21 points from 11 games (even if we achieve that) automatic promotion form?
No way on earth are we going up automatically
two points a game will do the job but you have to do that all season not just for part of it
fuck me if we dont win today we will be 20 points off the top two with half the season gone.
given how much we spent in the summer its abysmal
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I just don't think it was ever likely that a club on the back of years of neglect and one of the worst seasons in our history, Was going to go straight back up automatically and things click from the off
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Bring in the right players in January and I think we'll have a big say in the promotion race but no way are we finishing top two. Play offs at best. Wouldn't it be fantastic to go to Wembley and go up. Maximum exposure for the club. Great for the fans.
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We've got a decent run of games coming up between now and Newcastle away Feb 18th, if we can have a run, or a couple of runs, of winning 3+ in a row we'll be right back in the mix. Need to sort out the striker situation with Kod leaving for the ACoN and get some midfielders in.
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Quite what we do when kodjia is gone is a big issue
None of the alternatives look much good at all at the moment. Gestede and McCormack don't offer the same threat in behind. Gabby doesn't offer anything. RHM isn't even making the bench
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Important we won today.
If we beat Burton that's 34 points after 23 so replicating that over a full season is 68 points.
Not enough for top 6 but probably only 6-7 points off.
Just shows you despite our abysmal start we're not that far off top 6 really although January is a concern.
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To compare and contrast: Derby were below us when Steve Bruce took over. They are now five points ahead of us.
He has done reasonably well results-wise, but it hasn't been outstanding (I accept the argument that stopping the rot and making us more difficult to play against was also important).
Brighton apart, we have largely scratched out results. Which you will need to do on occasion, but there has to be an overall uplift in performances too if we are to win 3-4 on the bounce -which will need to happen at some point to get back in contention.
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It's a fair comparison
Though presumably we looked better four games ago and could easily do again in four games time. We've now played six of the top eight away from home. So in theory the second half of the season should be better. No kodjia and ayew in January does leave us looking very pedestrian
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Quite what we do when kodjia is gone is a big issue
None of the alternatives look much good at all at the moment. Gestede and McCormack don't offer the same threat in behind. Gabby doesn't offer anything. RHM isn't even making the bench
Go get Hernandez at Hull....only forward I can think of to replace Kodija that can hit the ground running...if he's fit.
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21 pts from 11 under Bruce equates to 42 pts from 22 if here from the start.
3rd in the table and threatening the top two.
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A good result today but another lucky one. Bruce is obviously trying the combinations to make the attack click but still not there. Losing Kodija for the Afcon is an added complexity and all the time he needs to average 2 points a game to get us a chance in a four team knockout tournament. Everyone said this league was tough and it is proving so. Still, most exciting season for years.
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ISO think a diamond could be a good fit for us, ideally with a left footed midfielder as an addition
Would suit Jedinak
Kodjia could play the channels but not have to play back to goal
Would suit ayew and McCormack (not together)
Would suit grealish
Would suit amavi
Bacuna could play right back or right mid
But we would need one or maybe two midfielders.
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A good result today but another lucky one. Bruce is obviously trying the combinations to make the attack click but still not there. Losing Kodija for the Afcon is an added complexity and all the time he needs to average 2 points a game to get us a chance in a four team knockout tournament. Everyone said this league was tough and it is proving so. Still, most exciting season for years.
I wouldn't say it was a lucky win we missed a penalty and had at least another 2 penalty shouts turned down.
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A good result today but another lucky one. Bruce is obviously trying the combinations to make the attack click but still not there. Losing Kodija for the Afcon is an added complexity and all the time he needs to average 2 points a game to get us a chance in a four team knockout tournament. Everyone said this league was tough and it is proving so. Still, most exciting season for years.
I wouldn't say it was a lucky win we missed a penalty and had at least another 2 penalty shouts turned down.
Definitely not unlucky. "Unconvincing" is the word that I use to describe our performances of late. I see teams like Derby hammering sides 3-0 and I just cannot see it with this Villa team.
For me, automatic promotion is now a step too far so I'm content with what we are doing to a certain extent. I'm (forever the optimist) hoping that a couple of decent additions in January will see us kick on, hopefully finishing the season in form, which sets us up nicely for the play offs.
I'm very frustrated at the treatment of Tish but accept that something has clearly gone on that we are not privy to. Other than that, I've no issues with Bruce. We knew what we were getting when he joined and he hasn't disappointed. we are steady for the play offs and provided we are clinging onto the coat tails of the top 6 come the turn of the year, I'd say that we will be good bets to qualify.
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Win tomorrow and it's 21 points from 11 games. That's automatic promotion form.
Given that both Newcastle and Brighton are running at more than two points a game on what basis is 21 points from 11 games (even if we achieve that) automatic promotion form?
As it would leave you with 80 plus points and enough to go up automatically. I'm describing our current form. I think automatic promotion is gone as the poor start meant we had to be faultless.
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Teams like Derby hammering QPR 1-0 after being poor all game? Teams like that?
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86.2 points is the average number required for second place in the previous 10 seasons , the maximum we can reach is 103 so we can drop 16 points and still go up..... five defeats and one draw in our next 24 games - we're a bloody shoe in for automatic promotion :)
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Teams like Derby hammering QPR 1-0 after being poor all game? Teams like that?
Yeah teams like Derby who had just won 6 on the trot, prior to yesterdays draw at Fulham. We've managed a back to back win once all season.
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Derby along with us are the 2 lowest scoring teams in the top half. They have only scored 23 however defensively much better as they have only conceded 15.
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Derby won 7 in a row. And have won 3-0 (or better) twice all season. One was 3-0 at home to Rotherham, same as us, the other was 3-0 at home to Forest who we could have scored twelvety against.
What we do need to do is win 4 or 5 on the spin.
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Derby along with us are the 2 lowest scoring teams in the top half. They have only scored 23 however defensively much better as they have only conceded 15.
We have a pretty decent defence, 4th best. Only 3 sides have scored less though. It's why Kod going worries me so much, I don't think anyone apart from him has scored more than 1 goal in the last 12 games.
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I'm pretty worried about what'll happen while Kodjia's off, especially if we don't boost our midfield before then. I reckon if we get a midfielder and don't lose any ground from where we currently are (six points off the playoffs) before he comes back, we should make it, but I don't feel great about making up any more ground than we currently have on our hands.
I think realistically, we should aim to beat most teams who come to VP (a draw here and there is acceptable, I suppose), win away at the poorer teams in the division, and then get draws at the remaining away fixtures.
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Win tomorrow and it's 21 points from 11 games. That's automatic promotion form.
Given that both Newcastle and Brighton are running at more than two points a game on what basis is 21 points from 11 games (even if we achieve that) automatic promotion form?
As it would leave you with 80 plus points and enough to go up automatically. I'm describing our current form.
Even our current form isn't enough. If Newcastle and Brighton carry on their form so far this season they'll both be north of 90 points. Even if we were level points with them now we'd need more than 21 points from every 11 games to go up automatically.
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Most seasons 84 points is enough to go up automatically.
We're currently gathering enough points that if extrapolated across a season, we'd be on course to hit 84-90 points.
We're not going to get that many points, RDM has seen to that, so it doesn't really matter what Newcastle or Brighton do, I'm merely using it as an indicator of good form and a sign that we will make the Play Offs.
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The thing is, as turgid as it looks sometimes we are creating plenty of chances, 17 shots or something yesterday was it, seven of them on target. If we could only bloody finish a few of them we'd be flying. It still wouldn't be pretty to watch but if goals are going in no one ever really cares, look how quickly most Stripey fans have stopped moaning about Pulisball now they are scoring a few.
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One good thing is that 11 away games have seen us play 8 teams currently above us in the table ......... lets hope the wins flow against the teams below us now and the home form continues
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One more win before the end of this year and we will already have twice as many points as we managed in the whole of last season!
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Our wins have been mainly against the bottom 6 with only Reading and Fulham above us beaten. Our losses have been to teams mainly just ahead of us which makes the draws against the likes of Forest, Barnsley and Brentford annoying. 4 of our 5 defeats have been well deserved.
We need a result against someone in the top 6 soon to help with confidence. Leeds at home could be that game.
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Our wins have been mainly against the bottom 6 with only Reading and Fulham above us beaten. Our losses have been to teams mainly just ahead of us which makes the draws against the likes of Forest, Barnsley and Brentford annoying. 4 of our 5 defeats have been well deserved.
We need a result against someone in the top 6 soon to help with confidence. Leeds at home could be that game.
In fact, we have 11 away games left and only 3 of those are against teams above us. Our 13 home games see us play 9 teams currently above us. So looking on the bright side, it gets "easier" away but tougher at home. Hopefully our new found fortress Villa Park sees us through.
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I'm pretty worried about what'll happen while Kodjia's off, especially if we don't boost our midfield before then. I reckon if we get a midfielder and don't lose any ground from where we currently are (six points off the playoffs) before he comes back, we should make it, but I don't feel great about making up any more ground than we currently have on our hands.
That's going to be a real problem. He's our only regular goal outlet, so lord knows what happens when he's away.
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There's two ways to look at our run of fixtures
a) we've got great home form even against good teams like Newcastle and Huddersfield we've not lost; and away form is improving with the fixtures getting easier
b) generally we've not actually played that well in most games. And the sort of performances that saw us win against Fulham, Blackburn etc aren't going to cut the mustard against top eight teams; while we might put together some sneaky wins away from home it won't be enough
I really don't know. Leeds is a good test
PS all references to "good sides" are relative. The quality in this league is worse than I expected
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By January 31st we will have a good indication where we are
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By January 31st we will have a good indication where we are
That depends on how much I have to drink over Christmas.
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We're currently on target for 68 points.
Not enough for the play offs...the par for that will be 75 points I think.
It does show you though despite an abysmal start and despite many deficiencies still in the team with our style of player it's not that difficult to pick up points in this league and we just need a marginal improvement in the second half of the season to finish in the top 6.
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surely the calculation should be done post RDM, and what Bruce has been able to do points per game. We had 10 points when Bruce came in after 11 games. Since, we have 24 points in 12, so 2 points a game. Based on that with 23 games to go, we should be on target for another 46, so a total of 80.
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I included the RDM disaster zone as I wanted to show we were only 6-7 points off the top 6 if you include the grand total of him winning 1 game in the first 11.
So we need only marginal improvement from here to make top 6.....some good signings in January should get us over the line.
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Yeah it's useful to include it as it shows despite how terrible the start was, here we are breathing down necks.
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We're currently on target for 68 points.
Not enough for the play offs...the par for that will be 75 points I think.
It does show you though despite an abysmal start and despite many deficiencies still in the team with our style of player it's not that difficult to pick up points in this league and we just need a marginal improvement in the second half of the season to finish in the top 6.
We're on target for 68 points if we have an identical run of eleven crap games in the second half of the season.
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I included the RDM disaster zone as I wanted to show we were only 6-7 points off the top 6 if you include the grand total of him winning 1 game in the first 11.
So we need only marginal improvement from here to make top 6.....some good signings in January should get us over the line.
That's fine, but if you want forecast the balance of the season the next 23 games would only include metrics for Bruce. Yes of course, it's an interesting exercise to show that we are not far off despite that early season disaster but going forward if we maintain this pace we should be in the play off places come the end. In fact 80 points would have been good for 5th last season. And you could argue that as the season goes on and Bruce gets in a couple of players we should actually improve. So 85+ could be a mark that we can achieve.
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We need another 40 points. Let's plot our way to those. I came up with another 43.
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What isn't helping us is the weekends we win everyone else above us seemingly does....Huddersfield, Reading and Leeds all won today and Sheff Weds now winning at Newcastle.
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What isn't helping us is the weekends we win everyone else above us seemingly does....Huddersfield, Reading and Leeds all won today and Sheff Weds now winning at Newcastle.
We can't control that of course. What we must do a better job of is beating the sides above us starting in a couple of days with Leeds. We've not done a good job of that this season only defeating 2 of the 9 sides above us in the current table.
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We can control it to the extent we've got home fixtures against 3 of those to come. Those are the games I'm nervous about. Bruce has so far struggledmto get much out of games against decent championship sides.
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Last decent side we played was away at Brighton and we were streets ahead of them.
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Without at least 2 first team level players early in this window we will struggle to reach the play offs.
A RB and CM are essential.
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Leeds was more recent than that and, although you might debate how good a side they are, they epitomise the type of side we are trying to get past and we were bilge for much of that game.
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Of the teams currently above us (or just below) that we've played under Bruce, we've won at Reading, beaten Fulham, drawn at sha and Brighton and lost at Leeds and Norwich. It's not great but it's not awful either especially as all but one were away.
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Fair point. The games I had in my mind were Leeds, Norwich and blose when we were generally considered lucky to get a point. But you're right it's a mixed picture.
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Now we are in the top 10 worth having a compare against the teams above us.
Overall our defence is still up there as one of the top 3-4 in the league, very rarely ships more than a goal, even if they make us nervous.
At the other end it's only Derby who've scored less and they have a game in hand. Still struggling to supply and combine all the attacking talent in a consistent way, failing to put games away.
In terms of form in the last 10 games we are 6th in the last 10 games with 20 points. Extrapolating that form we should get into the playoffs in the next few weeks but we will be hanging on to shirt tails to keep in it.
My prediction, 5th with 77 points, playoff win against Reading in 4th, final against Leeds at Wembley. Thursday should be interesting.
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I'm pretty sure that Kod is still the only player to score more than once since Bruce arrived and obviously he's off soon.
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final against Leeds at Wembley.
Oh joy - I thought it couldn't be worse than Blose...
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Agree with Kippax that we need another 40 points in the second half of the season.
When you look at our poor start and the fact that almost all the promotion candidates have to come to VP it shouldn't be beyond us to make the play offs.
We desperately need a decent midfield player in the window though.
I wonder if Man U would part with Michael Carrick?
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6 points off the play offs again ffs. We can't seem to get closer despite winning
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We need to stay in touch and make sure we beat the sides in there at home. Starting Thursday.
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6 points off the play offs again ffs. We can't seem to get closer despite winning
It didn't help losing two games recently. The second half of the season sides will fall off the pace as squad depth starts to take a toll. We'll lose players too of course but even with the African Cup we should have enough plus a manager who has been through it all successfully to start making some proper inroads from Jan onwards.
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We've only won two games against teams in the top 18. Both late winners after a silly mistake on their part (Fulham and reading)
We've played well in some other games against the top 18 - e.g. Brighton
But having just realised this (and having watched us), I'm now even less confident that we're really ready to go up this season. I'd want to replace the large majority of the current first team. Probably would only have confidence in amavi, Chester, kodjia from the team that started burton.
Not really looking forward to the Spurs game!
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I love the way we talk down wins to put a negative spin on it.
We're the only team to have won at Reading who are 3rd. We were the better side throughout and they looked clueless all game. Their only chance was the penalty which came about because the midfield didn't join Bacuna in the press.
Only one side wanted to win the game, much like when Fulham (who have one of the best away records in the league) came to Villa Park to park the bus and got what they richly deserve.
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Are other clubs going to be hampered by the African Cup as we are?
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Its only Ayew and Kodjia isn't it? Gestede is gash anyway and Adomah isn't in the squad.
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We've only won two games against teams in the top 18. Both late winners after a silly mistake on their part (Fulham and reading)
We've played well in some other games against the top 18 - e.g. Brighton
But having just realised this (and having watched us), I'm now even less confident that we're really ready to go up this season. I'd want to replace the large majority of the current first team. Probably would only have confidence in amavi, Chester, kodjia from the team that started burton.
Not really looking forward to the Spurs game!
I'm a bit different. We also lost games/points in the dying minutes due to silly mistakes. I think we are currently not convincing but we are churning out results. With additions in January and the more that the team play together, I have faith that we'll improve.
It wasn't so long ago that most people were claiming that there was little to fear in the division-Now it seems like most think that the opposite is the case. We're playing badly but have the quality in the final third to take advantage, especially as teams tire.
I think that come Jaunary, we're going to see a big improvement in midfield and I also have a suspicion that a new striker is going to join us as well.
I'm looking forward to the Spurs game just to see how we fare. I know an FA cup tie is not an ideal yardstick but it will be interesting all the same, even if it is to expose our weaknesses.
I do accept that another year in the championship would probably be best long term but as a fan, I want promotion this season and am totally reliant on Xia's wallet to be bulky in the summer. If we fail this season, then so be it, we look on the positive side and say that it was for the best.
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Adomah has been left out of the ACN which is a boost. It leaves only Kodjia & Ayew who will be absent in January.
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My fear is despite the unbeaten home record, we haven't been convincing in any game other than Rotherham (who are clearly hopeless) and Forest who we should have beat by 3 or 4.
With better sides coming to Villa Park in the second half of the season, we are going to be truly tested, starting on Thursday.
For me, it's crucial that we start winning consistently on the road if the play offs are achievable, which considering the fact that the vast majority of away games left are against teams in the bottom half is doable.
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I fully admit it could go either way. We've only been really, really bad in about three games.
I'm sure we are capable of beating the better sides at home and I'm definitely sure we will pick up quite a few away wins
But we'll have to make it a regular occurrence and I'd like to see us actually play a half decent team and beat them by a couple of goals at least once this season!
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The sixth place side are on course to reach 80 points which is exceptionally high for a 6th placed club. Lets hope there is some fall off as previously mentioned due to squad depth etc.
We need to maintain an average of 2 points a game to reach that 80 mark and under Bruce thats exactly what we've done so far with 24 from 12. What makes me hopeful is that with changes made quickly at the beginning of Jan, the team can be stronger and maintain that average to the end of the season playing better football to give us bigger cushions in games. One thing that is for certain is that Bruce has eeked out as many points as we can possibly deserve in those 12 matches, whereas points were thrown away for fun under the previous manager. Cautiously optimistic!!
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I fully admit it could go either way. We've only been really, really bad in about three games.
I'm sure we are capable of beating the better sides at home and I'm definitely sure we will pick up quite a few away wins
But we'll have to make it a regular occurrence and I'd like to see us actually play a half decent team and beat them by a couple of goals at least once this season!
I can live with that Matt. At this moment, it would be nice to beat anyone by a two goal margin.
I think that if anyone looked objectively, they would say that we need 2 seasons to regroup and rebuild. Brighton certainly appear to be benefiting from last seasons experience and also the summer transfer window.
I think we all agree that if there is an opportunity to get promoted this season, then we should go for it.
I agree that we're quite a long way off at this stage both in terms of points and performance. I'm optimistic that we will kick on in the second half of the season. Having most of the top sides to play at home will be the proof of the pudding.
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We're six points adrift without a midfield having taken 2 points game and won 7, without putting our disproportionate level.of attacking quality to full use.
We're the richest club in the league and the biggest too, with January coming. Considering the poor start, we're in a strong position to kick on.
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We're six points adrift without a midfield having taken 2 points game and won 7, without putting our disproportionate level.of attacking quality to full use.
We're the richest club in the league and the biggest too, with January coming. Considering the poor start, we're in a strong position to kick on.
Has Bruce got what it takes to improve the technical side of the team, either by tactically improving with the current players or bringing in the better technical players that will improve the team.
Currently, we need to improve 10-15% and by the time we are approaching the final half a dozen games, raising it another 10% or so. If we reach the play-offs, we have to be playing significantly better than we are now and with a far higher level of confidence.
I would have expected Bruce to have got better performances out of the team by now. I have the nagging feeling that something is not right with the players and there is not full commitment there. It only takes one bad apple to offset the good work that Bruce has done.
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We're averaging 2 points a game. The only way you could say something isn't right with the players is if you accept the past 5 years of shite as the norm and you're in a state of shock that we win at home and don't lose very often.
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There are players that are playing within themselves. Performances of individuals fluctuate so much from match to match, which results in Bruce having to change the team constantly to maintain the points we are picking up. It is good from a points return point of view but is disruptive from the point of view of building solid performances. It is similar to cup match strategy of taking each match and doing just enough to get over the line.
We have a lot of new players in the club that need consistency which is not there. I am a bit concerned that Bruce is using a shuffle the pack method of team selection to get the best team for any given match, rather than bringing in a few wild cards into the match day squad.
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as his results have been very good, I don't really care - and the real time to judge is when he has had the opportunity to bring in his own players. Can't attend tonight sadly but hoping for a big performance. UTV!
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We're still going to need a good run of wins somewhere just to make the play offs. If Sheff Weds win, we're looking at a gap of seven points, which although is not massive, will take some making up.
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We're still going to need a good run of wins somewhere just to make the play offs. If Sheff Weds win, we're looking at a gap of seven points, which although is not massive, will take some making up.
Spot on. Everyone keeps talking about this "2 points per game" ratio but it's not much use if everyone else is doing the same. All the teams above us have hit winning runs of 6 wins on the trot, or at least 5 wins out of 6. The best we have done is 2 lots of back to back wins.
We've done well to climb the table but this is in part due to the weaker sides failing to maintain their consistency (Preston, Bristol City & Blues etc). Teams such as Derby, Leeds and Sheffield Wednesday are looking very strong, getting stronger if anything. I can't see those teams hitting a bad run or averaging much less than 2 points per game. Derby will spend in January, they will definitely improve up front.
Getting into that top 6 is still a very big ask, even averaging 2 points per game. To me, it all hinges on January and what we do in terms of signings. It looks like we have a new keeper, for me, the priority is as everyone agrees, at least one midfielder. After that, I think we need a striker who can play the lone role as I don't think any of our current crop can do so effectively. I'm not as critical of Hutton as many on here, as such, for me, a new RB would be good but not essential. Having said that, Bruce has mentioned several times the need for a new defender.
An improved midfield (and that may mean 2 in if Jedinak continues his recent run of bad form) can help both ends of the field, which in turn could be the difference between winning and drawing games.
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There's still a long way to go
I doubt that every one of the teams above us will maintain current form. Especially Huddersfield and Wednesday.
Whether we can keep up this ratio is another matter. January is going to crucial on and off the pitch
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There is a long way to go. Half a season in fact. I still think that Derby and Leeds are going to take some catching, Wednesday too, who lasted the distance last season, beating Brighton home and away in the play offs.
I think that Derby and Leeds are going to match us 2nd half of the season, most likely Wednesday as well. I don't really know enough about Reading to comment but hope that Huddersfield lose form at some point.
As I said, (as did the poster before me), we need to put a run of wins together, like everyone else has done.
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7 points from 3 games is a decent return. Back it up at Cardiff and we will claw back further lost ground.
Not one step backward comrades.
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7 points from 3 games is a decent return. Back it up at Cardiff and we will claw back further lost ground.
Not one step backward comrades.
Whilst it is a decent return, would we really expect anything other than 3 points from QPR & Burton? I would expect any top 8 side to beat those 2. Out of Brighton, leeds twice and Norwich, we've collected 2 points. This is where we need to improve.
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I don't think anyone is saying we don't need to improve.
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I don't think anyone is saying we don't need to improve.
But some are saying that this current average of 2 points per game will be enough. It may not be.
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It would be enough to put us in the play offs based on the past 20 years of points returns.
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It would be enough to put us in the play offs based on the past 20 years of points returns.
That's reassuring. It doesn't escape the fact that there are some very good teams above us. This division gets tougher every season and it's not unrealistic for the top 5 or 6 all to hit 79/80 points.
The only good thing is that everyone has to play everyone still, other than us and Leeds, so there are plenty of points to be dropped. I personally believe that Leeds, Sheff Wed and Derby are going to go the distance. They already have around a 6 point advantage over us.
I'm hopeful that we will grow in the second half of the season.
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With so many teams around the play-off positions, teams will beat each other. Everybody cannot win each week so teams will drop points. We do need to start beating teams around us though.
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With so many teams around the play-off positions, teams will beat each other. Everybody cannot win each week so teams will drop points. We do need to start beating teams around us though.
No we just need to beat teams we play every week ;)
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;)
With so many teams around the play-off positions, teams will beat each other. Everybody cannot win each week so teams will drop points. We do need to start beating teams around us though.
No we just need to beat teams we play every week ;)
Can we play Rotherham every week ;)
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Or turn opposition into Rotherham every week :)
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Burton have beaten Derby and Sheff Weds this season.
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Average for 6th in last 10 seasons is 74 but ATM Sheffield Weds are on track for 79 points. Whilst someone will probably drop off that piece I can certainly see Derby catching up so even at 2 points a game we would get to 79 points. It's going to be so so close.
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75 points will be more than enough I reckon.
Let's not forget in the good runs of Reading, Leeds, Huddersfield they haven't been playing each other so they'll be dropped points when they all meet in second half of the season and we play them all again with a fair few at VP where we don't lose.
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I'd like to see what the points totals were at the half way stage in previous seasons.
Taking the top 2 out of the equation, we currently have 5 teams on 40 points or more. if they match that in the 2nd half of the season, there will be 5 on 80+ points.
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Our fate is in our own hands
the majority of teams above us have got to come to vp
Beat them and not only are we picking up 3 points we are getting 3 points closer to them
our current balance is wrong, we know that and sb does. Two decent cm's and we wont be a million miles off
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I'd like to see what the points totals were at the half way stage in previous seasons.
Taking the top 2 out of the equation, we currently have 5 teams on 40 points or more. if they match that in the 2nd half of the season, there will be 5 on 80+ points.
Dec 31st 2015
P PTS GD
1. Boro 23 49 +22
2. Derby 24 48 +22
3. Hull 24 44 +17
4. Brighton 24 44 +7
5. Burnley 24 41 +11
6. Ipswich 24 40 +4
Ipswich crumbled and only picked up 29 pts in the second half of the season. It's a very similar table to this seasons so far with the exception that 7th this season has 4 more points than last seasons did at this stage, I think we are going to need 78pts ish for promotion. 43pts in 22 games, it's a big ask, I think we will come up just short.
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Interesting but where were Sheff Weds at that stage ? One team always makes a strong run to reach the play offs it could be us.
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I'd like to see what the points totals were at the half way stage in previous seasons.
Taking the top 2 out of the equation, we currently have 5 teams on 40 points or more. if they match that in the 2nd half of the season, there will be 5 on 80+ points.
Dec 31st 2015
P PTS GD
1. Boro 23 49 +22
2. Derby 24 48 +22
3. Hull 24 44 +17
4. Brighton 24 44 +7
5. Burnley 24 41 +11
6. Ipswich 24 40 +4
Ipswich crumbled and only picked up 29 pts in the second half of the season. It's a very similar table to this seasons so far with the exception that 7th this season has 4 more points than last seasons did at this stage, I think we are going to need 78pts ish for promotion. 43pts in 22 games, it's a big ask, I think we will come up just short.
Cheers for that. It's interesting that 5 of the 6 at that stage ended up there at the end. Currently outside of the top 6 are Derby, who I think are going to be very strong in the second half of the season.
It is a big ask but let's see what January brings.
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I'd like to see what the points totals were at the half way stage in previous seasons.
Taking the top 2 out of the equation, we currently have 5 teams on 40 points or more. if they match that in the 2nd half of the season, there will be 5 on 80+ points.
Interesting...how many points did 6th need last season.
Dec 31st 2015
P PTS GD
1. Boro 23 49 +22
2. Derby 24 48 +22
3. Hull 24 44 +17
4. Brighton 24 44 +7
5. Burnley 24 41 +11
6. Ipswich 24 40 +4
Ipswich crumbled and only picked up 29 pts in the second half of the season. It's a very similar table to this seasons so far with the exception that 7th this season has 4 more points than last seasons did at this stage, I think we are going to need 78pts ish for promotion. 43pts in 22 games, it's a big ask, I think we will come up just short.
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Interesting but where were Sheff Weds at that stage ? One team always makes a strong run to reach the play offs it could be us.
Sheff Wed were 7th on 36pts. 7th this season are Derby with 40pts, so it's looking like 6th this season will need a few more points than last season.
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I really think once Brighton have taken the inevitable dip in form that they will then we should be challenging Newcastle for that top spot... it's easy, just win every game from now until the end of the season which we are capable of doing and then we will see who finishes on top of us and Newcastle.
Newcastle will probably win it as they have had that healthy head start but with a couple of good additions in January we have got a realistic chance of winning it.
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Our terrible start has ruled out automatic spot - Newcastle wont be caught and are a cert for promotion, and one of the current top 4 will take the 2nd automatic spot - they will not all falter.
But we can (and will in my opinion) make the play offs - then its just turn up on the day, which with Bruce, I feel good about
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I really think once Brighton have taken the inevitable dip in form that they will then we should be challenging Newcastle for that top spot... it's easy, just win every game from now until the end of the season which we are capable of doing and then we will see who finishes on top of us and Newcastle.
Newcastle will probably win it as they have had that healthy head start but with a couple of good additions in January we have got a realistic chance of winning it.
Unlikely. Given a straight choice between us and those giants of world football BC Loan Stars, everyone knows the best players will end up in Bordesley.
They all want to sample that 'special' atmosphere.
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Statto here...so changes over the Christmas games, we still have one of the best defences in the league, and still have a misfiring and ineffective attack.
Average to get into the playoffs last 10 seasons is 74 points, but the highest its been is 78, which is the highest its been in 25 years since the Premier League started, so it would be very unusual to be 78 or higher.
At the moment Sheff Wednesday are on 42 points from 25 games, 1.68 points per game, on track for 77 points.
So, we have to aim for 78 points at the moment.
We are currently on 35 points with 21 games to go, so needing 43 more points ...over the 2 points a game magic target and very very hard to maintain over such a long period of time.
Since Bruce took charge we have got 25 points from 14 games so just under 1.8 points a game. That would get us to 73 points at the end of the season, good enough in half the seasons to get into the playoffs, but I doubt good enough this year.
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Just noticed that Bristol City are playing Fleetwood today. You would expect them to win that one, meaning that our game scheduled for 28 Jan would be called off, due to their involvement in the cup.
I think that this may have a positive impact for us in three ways; Firstly, it should mean that Kodjia will be back for the rescheduled game, secondly, it may mean that at least one, if not 2 January signings will start the rescheduled game (on the basis that tougher deals for better players sometimes happen at the end of the window. Finally, I don't think it will do the squad harm to have a weekend off, after the hectic Xmas period, go away from it all for a few days and then return, recharged, ready for a 3 month relentless battle to secure 6th spot in the league.
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Unless there is a Houdini out there, I am resigned to another season in Div 2 - don't forget it took us two seasons to say adios to Div 3.
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Just noticed that Bristol City are playing Fleetwood today. You would expect them to win that one, meaning that our game scheduled for 28 Jan would be called off, due to their involvement in the cup.
I think that this may have a positive impact for us in three ways; Firstly, it should mean that Kodjia will be back for the rescheduled game, secondly, it may mean that at least one, if not 2 January signings will start the rescheduled game (on the basis that tougher deals for better players sometimes happen at the end of the window. Finally, I don't think it will do the squad harm to have a weekend off, after the hectic Xmas period, go away from it all for a few days and then return, recharged, ready for a 3 month relentless battle to secure 6th spot in the league.
Good points except the rest bit. We will be playing in the cup 😊
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Just noticed that Bristol City are playing Fleetwood today. You would expect them to win that one, meaning that our game scheduled for 28 Jan would be called off, due to their involvement in the cup.
I think that this may have a positive impact for us in three ways; Firstly, it should mean that Kodjia will be back for the rescheduled game, secondly, it may mean that at least one, if not 2 January signings will start the rescheduled game (on the basis that tougher deals for better players sometimes happen at the end of the window. Finally, I don't think it will do the squad harm to have a weekend off, after the hectic Xmas period, go away from it all for a few days and then return, recharged, ready for a 3 month relentless battle to secure 6th spot in the league.
Good points except the rest bit. We will be playing in the cup 😊
I'd personally prefer us not to be playing in the FA cup. I'd sooner have the rest period and reduced games. Let one of our rivals have the "glory" of reaching the 5th or 6th rounds. If we go out against Spurs, that will place us on 48 competitive games this season-That's plenty.
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I agree with you. I'm not bothered at all about tomorrow and the whole journey and game will be a none event. Unless we win of course!
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Sorry everyone, but I disagree. As a Villa fan under the age of 59 the FA Cup has to be the holy grail.
I just want us to win it once in my lifetime at least.
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Agreed. But this won't be the year.
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Sorry everyone, but I disagree. As a Villa fan under the age of 59 the FA Cup has to be the holy grail.
I just want us to win it once in my lifetime at least.
me too mate but it isn't going to happen this season so I'd prefer to go out in the 3ed round.
Now if someone offered me a straight choice between the cup and promotion, that would be a different thing all together.
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Sorry everyone, but I disagree. As a Villa fan under the age of 59 the FA Cup has to be the holy grail.
I just want us to win it once in my lifetime at least.
This. I'm 55. It's one of my lifetime ambitions to see Villa lift the Cup. Just once would do. Has been since I was a kid. I'm still waiting...
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Sorry everyone, but I disagree. As a Villa fan under the age of 59 the FA Cup has to be the holy grail.
I just want us to win it once in my lifetime at least.
I'm 60 and we've won it in my lifetime but I don't think we had a telly when I was 11 months old so couldn't even watch it that way!
As the only major trophy I have never been present at the ground as we won it I agree that for me personally it's a priority. Sadly I can't see it happening for a few years yet. Still, there's time yet.
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As there's no chance we'll win it I am not bothered about the cup at all this year. I'd take a respectable 1 goal defeat and no injuries right now if offered. League is absolute priority.
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Sorry everyone, but I disagree. As a Villa fan under the age of 59 the FA Cup has to be the holy grail.
I just want us to win it once in my lifetime at least.
I'm 60 and we've won it in my lifetime but I don't think we had a telly when I was 11 months old so couldn't even watch it that way!
As the only major trophy I have never been present at the ground as we won it I agree that for me personally it's a priority. Sadly I can't see it happening for a few years yet. Still, there's time yet.
I've posted on here several times - I'm 60 this year in August - so I was minus 3 months when we last won it, but like anyone of this age from a Villa supporting family, I was brought up on that win and us being record winners ("seven times we've won, no one else can catch us up etc.....). I would've never believed when I got the Villa bug in the late 1960s that I'd still be waiting to see us do it and have felt monumental disappointment several times when we've gone out eg. West Ham 1980 and OT 1996 and Wembley 2010, however this year for me the focus is on getting back up and I didn't really feel that disappointed on Sunday.
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If we can just score a couple of goals in the next couple of matches we could really make up ground on a number of teams ahead of us as there are quite a few games where they play each other.
Leeds beating Derby I tjink helped us as Leeds are now only just behind Newcastle and I cant see us overtaking them, whereas win today and we are within 2 points of Derby.
Also today, Fulham (10th) play Barnsley (8th), Preston (11th) play Brighton (1st), Wednesday (6th) play Huddersfield (5th). All 3 of those as draws would be good.
Then next weekend Brighton play Wednesday, Derby play Reading, we play Preston, Barnsley play Leeds and on 24th Reading play Fulham.
Mathematically the teams ahead of us cant all get good points so if we can get 4 preferably 6 then I think we can get back to 8th going into the end of January, end of the Afcon and hopefully 3-4 new signings. Massive IF though ....
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Can't see it happening
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Can't see it happening
No chance. Pathetic from all involved.
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Just forget about it, it isn't happening. We're not even close to being good enough, and the top 6 keep getting results. Need to build the midfield and forward line ready for next season.
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My calculator just packed it's bags and fucked off fuming.
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4 points per win and we may scrape into the playoofs
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close thread
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If we can just score a couple of goals in the next couple of matches we could really make up ground on a number of teams ahead of us as there are quite a few games where they play each other.
Leeds beating Derby I tjink helped us as Leeds are now only just behind Newcastle and I cant see us overtaking them, whereas win today and we are within 2 points of Derby.
Also today, Fulham (10th) play Barnsley (8th), Preston (11th) play Brighton (1st), Wednesday (6th) play Huddersfield (5th). All 3 of those as draws would be good.
Then next weekend Brighton play Wednesday, Derby play Reading, we play Preston, Barnsley play Leeds and on 24th Reading play Fulham.
Mathematically the teams ahead of us cant all get good points so if we can get 4 preferably 6 then I think we can get back to 8th going into the end of January, end of the Afcon and hopefully 3-4 new signings. Massive IF though ....
I see a slight flaw in your plan..other than that it's genius.
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close thread
This
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Making it harder by the game. The away form is entirely unacceptable.
The solution isn't within the club and that's been painfully obvious since Bristol did us.
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Spot on Risso. It's time to let Bruce build a team for next year. No point making panic buys this window now but focus on replacing/selling the dross we have.
He can make a start by sticking Gabby back in the reserves.
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Agreed
There's no real sign of improvement at the moment though
The results have caught up with the performances and kodjia is no longer papering over the cracks
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no future now with bruce hes in lambo mode so lets dig deep and start again
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May as well go on holiday until August
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no future now with bruce hes in lambo mode so lets dig deep and start again
With who exactly? Performances poor under Bruce but 1.7 points per game and none of his own players and now missing Kodja. Personally don't care how we perform as long gone as we start winning. He deserves this season and next to get us back and can't think of anyone better to turn us around
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Let's do everybody a favour and shelve this thread until August. There isn't a cat in hell's chance of promotion. There hasn't been for weeks and weeks, and each week it gets that little bit less likely. Time to stop torturing ourselves now.
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Promotion maths? Lets just stare at Rachel Riley, her numbers are far more interesting and make more sense.
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We'll probably need to average over 2 points a game from the last 20 to get top 6. No chance is my considered verdict.
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Only glimmer is we havefour out of our next six at home.
Even the most negative poster would realise we've been very strong at VP since SB came in so IF we can win those games we should close the gap on the top 6 at least.
Will we though...no chance with what we put out tonight.
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Until the away from shows some return then fuck it. As I said in the post match thread, we should put a filter on the words 'play offs'.
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Well Bruce hasn't given up on play off promotions but says if things don't improve be a long season
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Close thread. We'll be lucky to finish in the top half.
Since Bruce came in we've played well for half an hour at Brighton, that's it. Every other game we've been average or terrible.
His plan for Kodjia going to the AFCON is Gabby up front. Laughable.
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Just forget about it, it isn't happening. We're not even close to being good enough, and the top 6 keep getting results. Need to build the midfield and forward line ready for next season.
This for me. I said something similar in the PMT. We are a long way off and there is no point in perfuming this pig in January with Hermès 24 Faubourg.
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Is there an Einstein in this forum. We need one.
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This thread should be relegation maths. How many points do we need to stay up? Hit that, then start planning for next season, play the kids more, lose the usual suspects and hopefully we can hit our straps in August.
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Is there an Einstein in this forum. We need one.
...one that can play centre mid and play a forward pass to feet would be even better
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It's too early to give up completely, but it looks like the Top 6 are too far ahead of us now. Of course one or two of them could slip up and go on a disastrous run, but we'd need that to happen, and 5 or 6 other teams not to take advantage of it more than we can.
January will cost us - losing Kodjia, and not having a backup; and not getting signings in quickly enough.
Next season. We go again.
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We needed to have had a couple of players lined up and ready to go at the beginning of The month.
The fact we haven't is throwing the towel in on this season just as we did last January.
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I've no doubt they're trying to get signings in but other clubs in the chain hold things up.
I'm not giving up on the play offs but it's real up hill climb now and we just arn't good enough truth be told. Especially when the entirety of your midfield options are lower half Chamionship or League 1 standard at best.
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Sure they have been trying, we just lost out on Sclupp to Palace, he did not want to drop down a league.
We are not an attractive proposition.
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I can understand the spleen venting on here but I think the maths tell you where the problems are.
Since the start of December , 9 games , 5 goals.
Only 3 teams all season have scored less goals.
Lansbury, Hourihane all good potential additions but we urgently need a striker to complement Kodija. She's isn't it.
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I just don't get the logic in selling Gestede and leaving us with Gabby as our main striker this month. Bruce seems blinkered and is deluded when it comes to Gabby, spouting nonsense that he's the best striker in this league when he's fit. Why hasn't he even looked like scoring a goal then? He's been shit for years, and even when he was supposed to be good he was pretty shit and relied on his pace. He's always had the touch of a baby elephant.
I'm not saying Gestede is any good either and I'm not sure what our style of play is even meant to be, but it seems like we rely on crosses from our full backs. We don't carve teams open or play through balls so surely Gestede is a better fit for that style?
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I just don't get the logic in selling Gestede and leaving us with Gabby as our main striker this month. Bruce seems blinkered and is deluded when it comes to Gabby, spouting nonsense that he's the best striker in this league when he's fit. Why hasn't he even looked like scoring a goal then? He's been shit for years, and even when he was supposed to be good he was pretty shit and relied on his pace. He's always had the touch of a baby elephant.
I'm not saying Gestede is any good either and I'm not sure what our style of play is even meant to be, but it seems like we rely on crosses from our full backs. We don't carve teams open or play through balls so surely Gestede is a better fit for that style?
My thoughts exactly. Sell our only striker with the ability to win/hold up the ball (Kodija apart), then lump it high and long. At the very least, sell to Boro in the last week of Jan. Why do we make it easy to buy our players but it's so very difficult to get them in?
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I'm not overly critical of the Gestede sale. £6 million was useful money for a player who was never going to start for us. Playing Gabby for 2 or 3 games in January is not the end of the world. However, I hope that Bruce now sees he is not even at Championship level any more. He may well have played x amount of PL games but he was never that good. All he ever had was pace and strength, his first touch was a disgrace for a professional footballer. Now he's lost his main attributes, you may as well play Micha Richards up front than persist with Gabby. Gestede was never going to be the answer though, he has the mobility of a tortoise.
In hindsight, it was a big ask to expect to turn things around so quickly after last season. We need a period of stability. I know that Bruce states he doesn't want massive turnaround but by the end of the summer window, I think we'll have had one. I can't see many of this current crop lasting the distance under Bruce. My big worry is that there has been little improvement under Bruce. Apart from the Brighton game, we've looked anything but convincing. How many games (including those under RDM) have we actually looked the better side? For the money spent, its embarrassing. We struggle to score goals and whatever line up we start with, it looks light on goalscoring options. We are crying out for a number 9 as Kodjia isn't the answer there. After that, we need an entire new midfield. Every performance meges into one-Norwich, Burton, QPR, Cardiff, Wolves all seem virtually identical-No idea, no real attacking threat and plenty of hope that we get the rub of the green. It worked twice, failed 3 times. I'm a fan of Bruce, I wanted him here in the summer and was delighted when we finally got him on board. What has gone on thus far is not acceptable and it has become painful to watch. The onus is really on him now to sort things out. If he doesn't, we could well be in for a longer stay in this division than we anticipated.
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One positive isn't that we've only played one good side all season and fortunately for us, they're second in the Premier League. We've got precious room for error now though.
Cheque book time Doc.
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Someone asked in another thread what where previous points total of 6th place teams in championship
Well the last 5 seasons-
74pts Sheff Wed 2015/2016
78pts Ipswich 2014/15 (5th and 7th places also 78 points !)
72pts Brighton 2013/14
68pts Leicester 2012/13 (7th place also 68 points)
75pts Cardiff 2011/12
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Is there an Einstein in this forum. We need one.
...one that can play centre mid and play a forward pass to feet would be even better
and a left back who doesn't give up when he is turned.
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Bristol City won their FA Cup replay this evening which meas match vesurs them on 28th Jan will be rescheduled . Means have a game in hand as well as a break between Preston on Saturday and then sky televised match on Tuesday on close of transfer window.
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I've given up on promotion this year
Let's try and build a proper team. It's the first season in years we've not been desperately scrapping for something. So let's take the opportunity to bed the likes of green and hopefully rhm. And to try and build an established way of playing because I just couldn't tell you what our attempted pattern or style is at the moment
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About as much chance as we had of surviving relegation a year ago. Still time to act though unlike the reneging on Remi last time.
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About as much chance as we had of surviving relegation a year ago. Still time to act though unlike the reneging on Remi last time.
It looks bleak. But I think the difference is with one or two astute acquisitions I still think we could go on a run which could change the picture quite quickly. I never felt that last year.
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I've given up on promotion this year
Let's try and build a proper team. It's the first season in years we've not been desperately scrapping for something. So let's take the opportunity to bed the likes of green and hopefully rhm. And to try and build an established way of playing because I just couldn't tell you what our attempted pattern or style is at the moment
Give it another 4-6 weeks and it will become a lot clearer. If we are then not in with a reasonable chance of the play-offs, it would be the right time to introduce a number of the younger players. If the experienced players aren't going to do it this season, most of them are not going to be any better next season.
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From all the rumours of us bringing in young talent from hither and thither, I reckon they've already decided that the only way up is to build a super-fit young, skilled team to take us up next season. The maths are already too daunting with this bunch of wazzocks.
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Computer says no, by nine points (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38663851)
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There you go, then.
Beaten by a Computer.
Maybe Dr X has got a bigger, faster Lenovo ?
Or the money to make it happen with kids next season.
Oh no. You never win anything with kids! Do you ?
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The gap should hopefully be down to 7 points by 5pm.
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I guess the point was really Promotion.....not getting a ticket to the lottery that is the play-offs.
Mind you I'd buy one if it were on offer this season.
Chances get slimmer every season from now on.
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7 or 10 points... away from play offs . There's the challenge.
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Well we're one point closer than we were but it's still going to to be some effort.
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Yep, we need a good six game run.
We need 39 more points. 3 to target on 31st at Brentford. Fingers crossed we have Kodjia and Hourihane in and available to give them a good schwacking.
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9pts off the playoffs with 19 games to play. It's still not inconceivable or impossible by any stretch of the imagination if we do bring in a few more players and can put a run of wins together.
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We've gained ground on sixth but lost ground on Barnsley and Norwich. Will need a miracle run to get in this time.
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I said last week we need Einstein, this week I swop him for Jesus we need a miracle. On paper possible in reality averaging 2 from 4 and less than a point away it is worrying. I would be okay with a top 10 finish right now.
We are simply not good enough to finish higher. Imagine if we did get promoted we would put last season's point tally to shame. Forget it -Bruce needs time to build and drag us back to a situation where we the fans are at least comfortable.
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I am confident he will do that after the window.
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If we sign 3 good players and Kodjia is back for Brentford, we could easily win 6 or 7 out the next 8 amd be right on the fringes for the final 6-7 games. Bit would need consistent displays across 90 minutes.
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It's not a miracle, it's 9 points. This is a daft league, but fortunately not a very good one so even abysmal sides like QPR can put a run together.
Who knows. It's going to be tough, but we've got a good back line that Bree would improve, while adding Hourihane into midfield and having Jedinak rest his groin for 2 and a bit weeks will make the midfield stronger. If King Kodjia comes back sooner, then its a massive injection of quality.
They're capable players.
I'm inclined to agree with SHQ, that if we don't go up this year (although if we hit the Play Offs I would fancy us to win it) then with Kodjia, Hourihane, Lansbury, Chester et al, we'd be in a good place to have a genuine tilt at automatic. I wouldn't fear us playing Sunderland, Palace, Swansea now to be honest.
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Add in another summer window for Bruce to get his players in i don't think we would be outside the top 3 all season next season.
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It's not a miracle, it's 9 points. This is a daft league, but fortunately not a very good one so even abysmal sides like QPR can put a run together.
Who knows. It's going to be tough, but we've got a good back line that Bree would improve, while adding Hourihane into midfield and having Jedinak rest his groin for 2 and a bit weeks will make the midfield stronger. If King Kodjia comes back sooner, then its a massive injection of quality.
They're capable players.
I'm inclined to agree with SHQ, that if we don't go up this year (although if we hit the Play Offs I would fancy us to win it) then with Kodjia, Hourihane, Lansbury, Chester et al, we'd be in a good place to have a genuine tilt at automatic. I wouldn't fear us playing Sunderland, Palace, Swansea now to be honest.
We're definitely not better than any of them taking my claret and blue specs off.
We are a year too early to start thinking about the premiership. The only top draw we have is the ground and support (the latter most of the time)
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Who knows. It's going to be tough, but we've got a good back line that Bree would improve
We've kept six clean sheets all season. In 29 games. SIX!
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We have the 5th or 6th best defence in the league.
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You misunderstand. I meant if any three from that shit list came down, they'd have no significant advantages in terms of size or apparent riches (cheers Tony). Newcastle were always going straight back, you wouldn't feel the same about any of them.
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Just can't see us winning enough away games.
What's frustrating is we worked hard in the run up to xmas to get back into contention for top 6 and then we serve up garbage performances at Wolves and Cardiff (first half).
Looking at the list I can see SHA coming here, grinding their way to a draw and that will be the game where mathematically we can't reach the top 6 anymore.
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I don't think it would be a bad thing to have another season down here, only one mind!
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If by some miracle we did go up we would need 8-9 new players, otherwise we would get fewer points than last season.
We need title winning form pretty much, I've seen nothing to suggest we're capable of it. Even teams like Barnsley look better than us. We don't even have a shot in most away games, never mind win.
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If by some miracle we did go up we would need 8-9 new players, otherwise we would get fewer points than last season.
We need title winning form pretty much, I've seen nothing to suggest we're capable of it. Even teams like Barnsley look better than us. We don't even have a shot in most away games, never mind win.
I agree. We're nowhere near ready to go up yet.
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I don't think it would be a bad thing to have another season down here, only one mind!
I'm of the same thinking.
The championship will be much weaker next year....two of Swansea/Hull/Sunderland coming down who all have their off field issues like we did. There should be no excuses for an automatic promotion challenge next season.
If we don't go up then then yes the fear is we could be exiled at this level for a good while like Leeds, Forest and Sheff Weds.
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If he buys young talent - and can COACH them into being a good, fast-playing TEAM then we have a chance next season. Otherwise it will only get harder as our better players are tempted away and good ones won't join.
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Going up is never a bad thing and can never be done too soon.
I agree with the point though that we'd be a lot stronger next season and the squad more balanced.
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This current side.........well, last week's current side......is well, as bad if not worse than the lot that brought us down. And unless you subscribe unswervingly to the famous " you lot got us into this, now go and get us out of it "....they would slide straight back through like the yo-yo stripey lot from Sandwell.
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Need to win at least 10 of 19 games now to have a realistic chance?
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We have the 5th or 6th best defence in the league.
That doesn't make our back line "good". Like you said elsewhere in that post, this league isn't very good.
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Need to win at least 10 of 19 games now to have a realistic chance?
I think it might need to be more like 12. Very difficult but I honestly think that if we make the playoffs, we will............
(Don't want to hex it! Silly me, I still have faith!)
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Need to win at least 10 of 19 games now to have a realistic chance?
I think it might need to be more like 12. Very difficult but I honestly think that if we make the playoffs, we will............
(Don't want to hex it! Silly me, I still have faith!)
Quite. Let's just say that we win 10 out of 19 and lose the other 9 (not crazy - it's essentially how Newcastle's season has panned out so far). We'd then be relying on Wednesday getting less than 21 points from the 57 available - that's relegation form. Oh, and the six other teams between us and Wednesday dropping off as well.
I know that hope's a wonderful thing but it feels like it's better to accept the inevitable now!
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We have the 5th or 6th best defence in the league.
That doesn't make our back line "good". Like you said elsewhere in that post, this league isn't very good.
It makes it better than the vast majority. I'm not sure what your point is?
If you've got the 5th or 6th best defence in the league, then its not an area of the pitch to be hugely concerned about and it should give you a fighting chance of doing something.
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We have the 5th or 6th best defence in the league.
That doesn't make our back line "good". Like you said elsewhere in that post, this league isn't very good.
It makes it better than the vast majority. I'm not sure what your point is?
If you've got the 5th or 6th best defence in the league, then its not an area of the pitch to be hugely concerned about and it should give you a fighting chance of doing something.
My point is that a "good" defence manages to keep a clean sheet more often than once every five matches.
Even though we absolutely hammered Preston in the first half today I turned to the fella I sit next to and said that if we sat back in the second half, as Bruce has tended to have us do when we go in front, we'd end up losing or drawing the match, because we simply can't keep clean sheets. And so it proved. Whether the rest of the division has got a better or worse defence is irrelevant to that issue.
Having a leaky defence puts pressure on the rest of the team and drains their confidence, something this club has been sorely lacking for years. It needs sorting or we'll never get out of this league.
I get that you're Mr Positive around here and see the claret and blue in everything but whilst it might have worked for President Trump, blind positivity is not going to help the Villa.
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Fuck off with your patronising.
We have the 5th best defence in the league. 7 clean sheets and we concede less than a goal a game. I think that's good, you don't. That seemingly makes me some dribbling fool for thinking being the 5th best is good? Ok.
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Fuck off with your patronising.
We have the 5th best defence in the league. 7 clean sheets and we concede less than a goal a game. I think that's good, you don't. That seemingly makes me some dribbling fool for thinking being the 5th best is good? Ok.
When did I write that? Behave.
Point me to a single critical post you've made on this site? If you're going to portray such a one sided opinion expect to be pulled up on it.
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Pull me up all you want, but have an argument about the topic at hand.
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Pull me up all you want, but have an argument about the topic at hand.
Have an argument?! I realise we're in a post truth world but your last comment said we'd kept seven clean sheets and conceded less than a goal a game, neither of which is true.
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Google is lying then. Must have Villa myopia too. The site over estimated a clean sheet and underestimate a goal it seems.
Stats said 0.96 conceded per game and 7 clean sheets. Its actually 1 and 6. Still, only Brighton, Derby, Newcastle and now Wednesday have better.
We are good defensively, otherwise we'd be in a relegation fight.
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It's still possible and I don't think 11 wins is impossible out of 19. (agree we need at least 11, if not 12)
Lansbury made a difference yesterday and IF we could get Hourihane in as well, it would be a very exciting midfield with all the energy and creativity that we've been lacking. Kodjia + A.N Other up front will be more lethal than Gabby & Grealish.
It's a tall ask and as others have alluded to, it might be a year too soon. For me, I just want something like the team we are going to be starting next season, having a good run of games together now, so as we can hit the ground running in August.
I don't see too many signings in August, we'll probably have to replace Amavi, I would hope that we upgrade on Jedinak and possibly another left sided player/striker, dependent on how we end up lining up. It's vital to get our targets in that we are chasing this month. I'd hate to lose out on Hourihane as the prospect of him and Lansbury in midfield is really quite mouthwatering.
Yesterday worried me as it was a turnaround of RDM proportions. The marking for the 2nd goal is something that has repeated itself time and time again under Bruce and something else that needs working on.
I won't be overly disappointed if we don't do it this season. We're not quite good enough and it will take a massive swing to turn things around. Lansbury, Hourihane and another striker alongside Kodjia COULD make it possible but would the side benefit from another 12 months together before playing in the prem? Remember, the play offs only put us in a lottery, they Guarantee nothing.
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Over the last 6 games we're 14th in the form table.
Over the last 10 games we're 12th.
Blues haven't won since Zola took over but they're still above us.
What makes people think there's going to be a sudden and massive turnaround?
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Over the last 6 games we're 14th in the form table.
Over the last 10 games we're 12th.
Blues haven't won since Zola took over but they're still above us.
What makes people think there's going to be a sudden and massive turnaround?
4 new quality players, in the areas that we've been crying out for?
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Current 6th place is Sheff Weds who at their current rate would get to 76 or 77 points.
Our target has to be 1 more than that - say 78 points, which is the highest anyone has got for a 6th place finish in the last 20 seasons. In other seasons its been done with less than 70 points but I cant see that happening this season - there are some very good sides in contention, including Derby in 7th on 43.
To get from our 36 points from 27 games to 78 from 46 means 42 points in 19 games. 13 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. We need a back to back run of 4 wins starting virtually immediately :
Brentford (a)
Forest (a)
Ipswich (h)
Barnsley (h)
Even if we won the next 4 games we would STILL need to average 2 points a game for the remaining 15 games to get to 78.
Bristol City at home being postponed helps us as its a game less without Kodija but the challenge now looks like the north side of the Eiger to me.
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Perhaps I'm being too over optimistic but I can see us going on a little run now. Brentford, Forest and Ipswich I think we will beat. The barcode game will be moved? Due to them being in the cup? Two or three wins, with new players, and the the dream is on.
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A month ago, I was convinced we could make the top 6.
It's not going to happen is it? We're building for next year now. Flush out the dross, bring in some more proven Championship quality in the summer and go for the title next year.
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If he buys young talent - and can COACH them into being a good, fast-playing TEAM then we have a chance next season. Otherwise it will only get harder as our better players are tempted away and good ones won't join.
Before start of this season I'd have said Ayew and Amavi would've been must keeps.
I was delighted when we rejected bids but Ayew has been a massive disappointment at this level and while I like Amavi again blows hot and cold and really a 20m + bid should be seriously considered.
Beyond that I'm not sure who else we could lose that would hurt us....can't see Chester or Kodjia leaving as they've only just signed. If they stay and we get in more midfielders we will start a season with the strongest spine since arguably the MON days.
There should be no excuses next season.
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Need to win at least 10 of 19 games now to have a realistic chance?
I think it might need to be more like 12. Very difficult but I honestly think that if we make the playoffs, we will............
(Don't want to hex it! Silly me, I still have faith!)
Quite. Let's just say that we win 10 out of 19 and lose the other 9 (not crazy - it's essentially how Newcastle's season has panned out so far). We'd then be relying on Wednesday getting less than 21 points from the 57 available - that's relegation form. Oh, and the six other teams between us and Wednesday dropping off as well.
I know that hope's a wonderful thing but it feels like it's better to accept the inevitable now!
Still loving this league compared to the prem?
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A month ago, I was convinced we could make the top 6.
It's not going to happen is it? We're building for next year now. Flush out the dross, bring in some more proven Championship quality in the summer and go for the title next year.
Yep that in a nutshell.
Xmas period was a big time for us....we started off alright but failed miserably since.
Only hope is we still have to play a lot of the bottom 8 away.....Forest, Rotherham, Wigan, Blackburn, Burton etc.
I don't expect us to win all of them but surely we can win a few away games so if we can keep the strong home form that should at least push us up the league a bit more.
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If he buys young talent - and can COACH them into being a good, fast-playing TEAM then we have a chance next season. Otherwise it will only get harder as our better players are tempted away and good ones won't join.
Before start of this season I'd have said Ayew and Amavi would've been must keeps.
I was delighted when we rejected bids but Ayew has been a massive disappointment at this level and while I like Amavi again blows hot and cold and really a 20m + bid should be seriously considered.
Beyond that I'm not sure who else we could lose that would hurt us....can't see Chester or Kodjia leaving as they've only just signed. If they stay and we get in more midfielders we will start a season with the strongest spine since arguably the MON days.
There should be no excuses next season.
There can be no excuses next season
a third season in this division will kill us financially
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A 13 to 14 match winning run from remaining games or winning around that would see a play off spot. Would need the right blend of players and bit of luck. I honestly think if made play offs we win it as the momentum would be there. It could actually be too much to bear if lost in play offs.
However I won't give up till impossible. That the spirit villa players need to adapt !
UTV
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They need to be adept to adapt to adopt footy.
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They need to be adept to adapt to adopt footy.
I like that ! Execcellnt!
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I've seen nothing that makes me believe we are good enough as a team, even with an additional midfielder to think we can win 13 out of 19 and get in the playoffs. Not solid enough, not strong enough, not consistent enough, not fit enough.
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Need to win at least 10 of 19 games now to have a realistic chance?
I think it might need to be more like 12. Very difficult but I honestly think that if we make the playoffs, we will............
(Don't want to hex it! Silly me, I still have faith!)
Quite. Let's just say that we win 10 out of 19 and lose the other 9 (not crazy - it's essentially how Newcastle's season has panned out so far). We'd then be relying on Wednesday getting less than 21 points from the 57 available - that's relegation form. Oh, and the six other teams between us and Wednesday dropping off as well.
I know that hope's a wonderful thing but it feels like it's better to accept the inevitable now!
Still loving this league compared to the prem?
I don't remember saying I did love this league.
I do enjoy going to the match more than I have in the past three seasons though, knowing there's a chance we might win, rather than wondering how many we'll lose by.
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They need to be adept to adapt to adopt footy.
And we need someone to abduct Agbonlahor, Hutton, Richards et al.
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Need to win at least 10 of 19 games now to have a realistic chance?
I think it might need to be more like 12. Very difficult but I honestly think that if we make the playoffs, we will............
(Don't want to hex it! Silly me, I still have faith!)
Quite. Let's just say that we win 10 out of 19 and lose the other 9 (not crazy - it's essentially how Newcastle's season has panned out so far). We'd then be relying on Wednesday getting less than 21 points from the 57 available - that's relegation form. Oh, and the six other teams between us and Wednesday dropping off as well.
I know that hope's a wonderful thing but it feels like it's better to accept the inevitable now!
Still loving this league compared to the prem?
I don't remember saying I did love this league.
I do enjoy going to the match more than I have in the past three seasons though, knowing there's a chance we might win, rather than wondering how many we'll lose by.
I love this league-There are some great teams and managers in this division and I love the fact that anyone can beat anyone on the day. Just because we don't have a divine right to waltz it, doesn't mean we should not "love" the league. I look at the Prem and from 7th upwards, its almost a mini league. 8th downwards and the football played is no better than the championship. I watched (I think it was) Palace v Watford before one of our games recently & it was like tippy tappy sideways Lambert style x 10 from both teams-Absolutely appalling.
I like the way the games come thick & fast and I like having more home games to look forward to.
That all said, I want to get out of the division asap. Hopefully next season will see us do that.
I'm enjoying watching the rebuild and the challenge we have.
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I am enjoying too I have to say, and would not mind another season in it next year. I like how less well funded sides are bringing players through and giving them a chance too. Much more enjoyable than the premier league and the hype.
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Evening.
Been through this before a couple of times and I must say the only real excitement is when you watch us winning as a team that is after something achievable..........Sadly not this season, methinks.
Maybe next season with SB at the helm with 2 windows and a pre-season under his belt, eh?
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These 3 midfielder signings are players who can provide a promotion surge. I would have rather had 7 points behind rather than 9 but here's hoping a run of epic propotions starts .
Reading Derby Sheff Wed still have to come to villa park. Is that 9 points we need..
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Not even Tone can come up with an equation that makes me think we have any chance of going up.
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We're mathematically no further away than we were few weeks ago. But given how diabolical our away form is, there's no real possibility.
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We've blown it for this season, sadly.
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However there's less games and more teams to catch and overtake. So even though I
expect hope we'll improve once the new players settle I think we've left far too much to do. We're on our second bad run of the season, i'd imagine most teams that make the top 6 have one bad run. We've left ourselves no wiggle room.
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Yep, first 10 games were a total waste.
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The next 3 or 4 game should be seen as bedding in time for the new players. If we get results then fair enough, but its all about getting this team to gel and find a style of play for the next few months so we're ready for next season.
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Should we rename this thread "Avoiding Relegation Maths"
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Too late:
http://www.heroesandvillains.info/forumv3/index.php?topic=57046.0
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Average points for the automatic places in the last 12 years is 87.
Thats :
24 wins
15 draws
only 7 losses
No room for fannying around at the start of the season unless we want to do it the hard way by the playoffs.
We can have a few more draws and still do this, one defeat less though.
Still on 8)
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keep the home form going and turn the away form around and we can do it.
I want to go to wembley again.
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We'd have to sort the away form and hope that the new faces gel quickly into a functioning unit.
Its possible and with away games against poorer sides like Forest, Burton, Wigan, Rotherham et al to come in the second half of the season you might fancy an upturn.
That said, Brentford are a poor side and we struggled badly. Wolves and Cardiff are even worse and we lost to them as well, albeit without some of our better players.
On paper;
Kodjia,
Hogan
Admoah
Lansbury
Hourihane
Chester
They're all very good players at this level, but it may well take a pre-season now.
I'd like us not to give up on it and go and win the next three and see how many points off 6th we are then. If its still double figures, despite beating Forest, Ipswich and Barnsley, then its just too much. If we're 7 or so off then game on.
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Wigan win tonight, Villa and Newcastle tomorrow. Two home games on the spin.... dare to dream again.
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Reading and Leeds have done really well to make ground on the top two who most assumed were home and hosed. And Huddersfield are now replicating their early-season form, beating Brighton last night meaning the gap now emerging is between fifth and sixth rather than second and third.
That last play-offs place is going to be an almighty scramble unless one team can go on a long winning-streak. For us it would require a minor miracle. Top ten realistic if we settle down and some of the players start playing close to their potential.
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I still think finishing 6th is do-able - but the run has to start in the next couple of games, preferably tomorrow at Nottingham Forest.
l
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Wigan win tonight, Villa and Newcastle tomorrow. Two home games on the spin.... dare to dream again.
Realistically now it's only one play off spot left to fight for. I've assumed for a while Reading and Huddersfield would drop off but it's not happening...they lose a game and then win their next 4 and hardly ever seem to draw games.
Big problem is even if Sheff Weds drop some more points the run Derby are on (and squad they have) suggests they'll be the ones to finish in the top 6 comfortably.
It's beyond us now. We did well to get back into contention but have blown it since xmas.
That's not to say this season is over though...a good end to this season and we would at least have some momentum to take into next year where we simply have to get promotion.
It would be nice if the team could use the last few months to work out how to actually win away games aswell.
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We need snookers really, as we're dependant on others. Still, might as well have a pop.
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Short of an edict from the Football League that all opponents must face Aston Villa with no more than 9 players on the pitch at any one time, it's not going to happen.
Rehabilitating Gabby seems to have been Bruce's priority this year, and relying on that waste of skin in Jan has ultimately done for us. McCormack's piss-taking and the mardiness of some of our other lot is probably intertwined with that.
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Going up in 2018 while NUFC are coming back down could make it more palatable
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Who else was he supposed to rely upon?
RHM was badly advised and has only just pulled his head in
Ayew wanted put and was at ACON
Kodjia was at ACON
McCormack was taking the piss
Kozak doesn't resemble a footballer anymore
If Bruce hadn't brought Gabby back in then we'd have been left without a sausage up top.
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i personally think he should've kept rudy until kodjia came back or at least until the preston game.
i'm sure boro could've waited a few weeks as it's not like they've started him since he went up. i doubt he'd have kicked off like payet either.
gestede was never a starter but we saw in his final appearence he could make an impact in games when he came on...he would've been a good option for second halves at cardiff and wolves.
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The price for Gestede was attractive, and I was no real fan of him as a player.
But there was an argument to keep him until at least the end of Jan. He showed as recently as the Leeds game at home that he could change a game.
Gestede, McCormack and Kodjia have all scored shedloads in this division in recent seasons, so as much as it was a blow to be missing one of them for the guts of a month, it shouldn't have put the kybosh on our chances completely.
Another option would have been to have a short-term loan tied up in December for the start of Jan. It's not as if AFCON was unexpected. I'm sure there would have been at least one fit and hungry young player from the top 8-10 sides in the PL who would realish the game time and the chance to make a name for himself. As opposed to relying on a part time footballer who has more yellow cards than goals since 2010.
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We'd have to sort the away form and hope that the new faces gel quickly into a functioning unit.
Its possible and with away games against poorer sides like Forest, Burton, Wigan, Rotherham et al to come in the second half of the season you might fancy an upturn.
That said, Brentford are a poor side and we struggled badly. Wolves and Cardiff are even worse and we lost to them as well, albeit without some of our better players.
On paper;
Kodjia,
Hogan
Admoah
Lansbury
Hourihane
Chester
They're all very good players at this level, but it may well take a pre-season now.
I'd like us not to give up on it and go and win the next three and see how many points off 6th we are then. If its still double figures, despite beating Forest, Ipswich and Barnsley, then its just too much. If we're 7 or so off then game on.
Adomah is not a good player at the level, top 6 we want to be.
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Agree with that. Adomah isn't up to it all. Flatters to deceive, tries to do too much, doesn't get enough crosses in and loses possession way too often.
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He played 43 times for the side that finished 2nd last season so it suggests he's good enough for this division. I think he'd struggle in the top flight though.
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Never say never, but if we don't win tomorrow then we'll be 13pts off 6th place and at least 16pts from 5th place. We have take it game by game, but if we don't pick up 9pts from the next 3 games before we play Newcastle then realistically I think it'll be too much of a gap to close.
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Never say never, but if we don't win tomorrow then we'll be 13pts off 6th place and at least 16pts from 5th place. We have take it game by game, but if we don't pick up 9pts from the next 3 games before we play Newcastle then realistically I think it'll be too much of a gap to close.
This
we need to start putting runs together when we win 4 lose 1
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He played 43 times for the side that finished 2nd last season so it suggests he's good enough for this division. I think he'd struggle in the top flight though.
I haven't seen anything from him to suggest he's that good though. He just doesn't deliver enough for me.
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He played 43 times for the side that finished 2nd last season so it suggests he's good enough for this division. I think he'd struggle in the top flight though.
I haven't seen anything from him to suggest he's that good though. He just doesn't deliver enough for me.
Too much of a one trick pony for me and hasnt got enough pace
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As much as I would love us to go on a run to make the playoffs, we have left it too late now, we need concentrate on getting a shape and pattern to our team and work towards going up as champions next year, I believe this will make us stronger in the long term
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He played 43 times for the side that finished 2nd last season so it suggests he's good enough for this division. I think he'd struggle in the top flight though.
I haven't seen anything from him to suggest he's that good though. He just doesn't deliver enough for me.
Too much of a one trick pony for me and hasnt got enough pace
Prior to our new additions hasn't he got the most assists?
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Well if we really are going to make a run at the play offs, Forest away is exactly the sort of game we need to win.
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Think we're clucking at straws on this thread guys. To think we'll make the playoffs you have to be more optimistic than Opti McMistic from Optimisticshire.
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Things that demonstrably can't be true:
Bruce is no good at this level
McCormack is no good at this level
Adomah is no good at this level
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Never say never, but if we don't win tomorrow then we'll be 13pts off 6th place and at least 16pts from 5th place. We have take it game by game, but if we don't pick up 9pts from the next 3 games before we play Newcastle then realistically I think it'll be too much of a gap to close.
This
we need to start putting runs together when we win 4 lose 1
weve got losing side in spades, but this wwwwiiiinnnnniinngggg thingy huh. Were Aston Villa winning is beneath uz.
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As much as I would love us to go on a run to make the playoffs, we have left it too late now, we need concentrate on getting a shape and pattern to our team and work towards going up as champions next year, I believe this will make us stronger in the long term
I do agree with you, BUT the Doc is throwing lots of money at it, And when we don't go up this year , will he have the same interest going forward. (you can see why I say this , re lerner and his divorce from Villa)
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With adomah he is just far too predictable, 9 times out of 10 cant beat the man on the outside so cuts inside or gives the ball to hutton on the overlap and we know how that is going to end
The bloke tries but personally i dont think he offers enough and no way would he cut it in the prem, with many others
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As much as I would love us to go on a run to make the playoffs, we have left it too late now, we need concentrate on getting a shape and pattern to our team and work towards going up as champions next year, I believe this will make us stronger in the long term
I do agree with you, BUT the Doc is throwing lots of money at it, And when we don't go up this year , will he have the same interest going forward. (you can see why I say this , re lerner and his divorce from Villa)
Even if we fluked the play-offs and went up, on present performance we would have a soul destroying season and come straight back down. I'm for consolidating and building for another season.
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Why would we?
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With Sheff Weds winning they are on track for 78 points at the end of the season, which would be the highest 6th place finish in 10 years.
To match that we have to win 14 of our 18 remaining games.
I cannot remember Villa ever having that form.
Its not going to happen.
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While it's not impossible to go up this season, we will need our new midfield to hit the ground running. That's a huge ask, and there was little evidence at Brentford that will be the case. On a positive note, if we do get into the playoff positions we'll almost certainly be the division's form team in May and will have every chance of getting to Wembley.
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Agreed, I think we are a long way being able to even put up a decent fight to stay up next year if we fluked the play offs
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I think I've cracked it:
32,000 rabbits feet
4 Gypsies curses
1 boatload of dodgy refereeing decisions in our favour
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Things that demonstrably can't be true:
Bruce is no good at this level
McCormack is no good at this level
Adomah is no good at this level
The evidence this season though
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Things that demonstrably can't be true:
Bruce is no good at this level
McCormack is no good at this level
Adomah is no good at this level
The evidence this season though
The evidence this season is that the two players are out of form and inconsistent respectively while the manager is taking his time to sort a massive problem, not that they're no good, which they clearly are.
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Surely this thread needs locking now?
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It need changing to a building for next season thread. We I guess it will soon enough.
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Surely this thread needs locking now?
No locking of this thread until it's mathematically impossible! It must be the glass more than half full in me that after the Forest game says - this team can gel , get a couple of wins against Ipswich and Barnsley to set us on our way to the mother of all unbeaten runs :)
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The sad thing is, I think we have the players to do it. Too late now though.
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If Villa can put together a run to get into the play offs it will make Bruce one of the all time greats and need the other teams to crash. Not much chance of that. What I want now is mid table mediocrity, an end to any thought of relegation and some entertainment.
I still fear relegation. Sorry, but its not impossible.
And I am still backing Bruce, just as I backed Vic Crowe after Docherty. There is no more money. He has his players now. He has to make it happen. No point in more change, we need stability.
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Can someone change the title of this thread to "Relegation Maths" please? I think we need 50 points to be sure so that is 14 from 16 games. At present rate that appears a very difficult task.
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Two months ago we were talking about the handful of teams above us who all had to come to Villa Park. Now there's bloody loads of them.
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Close this thread please. It's embarrassing.
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"Mid-table Maths" could be the new title.
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Please delete thread of move it to an off topic its not applicable.
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Keep the thread just delete Promotion and insert Relegation.
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We have more chance of bottom 3 than top 6
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Even if we did win all our remaining games (ha!), it probably wouldn't be enough, is that right?
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No, we'd have over 80 points and be in the top 6.
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No, we'd have over 80 points and be in the top 6.
Until you don't believe that can't happen I'm not giving up.
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The only way we'll pass 80 points is if in May we add up our points total for this season, last season and 2014/15.
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No, we'd have over 80 points and be in the top 6.
Until you don't believe that can't happen I'm not giving up.
I can't work out if you've given up or not!
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We need snookers.
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No, we'd have over 80 points and be in the top 6.
Until you don't believe that can't happen I'm not giving up.
I can't work out if you've given up or not!
Oi, I fixed it before you requoted, not fair!
A nod to Ad's positivity but I fear even he has been worn down like a parent with a new babby.
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Alan Turing couldn't come up with a mathematical Formula to get us promoted now (at least thats what it feels like at the moment).
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I'm more concerned about where the 10 or so points are going to come from to avoid the drop. At the moment we don't look capable of grinding out even a home draw against inferior opposition.
This season is becoming more and more resonant of 1969/70. History is repeating itself.
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It wouldn't be a season without you predicting relegation.
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It wouldn't be a season without you predicting relegation.
Remind me of your prediction of the start of the season again??
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I thought we'd go up. Looking at our squad and how much we've spent, does that seem absurd to you?
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I thought we'd go up. Looking at our squad and how much we've spent, does that seem absurd to you?
I think you said something like "we'll piss this league", and you've been proven very very wrong, so if I were you I wouldn't be so quick to condemn other posters predictions on here what with your track record of getting things wrong. At least levico's negativity is based on a bit of realism.
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I'll condemn who the fuck I like.
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We're not going up and we're not going down. There will be good and bad games until the end of this season. hopefully next season we'll have learned the lesson that being Aston Villa doesn't mean you don't have to treat each and every game like a cup final, because every other team that plays us will.
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We're not going up and we're not going down. There will be good and bad games until the end of this season. hopefully next season we'll have learned the lesson that being Aston Villa doesn't mean you don't have to treat each and every game like a cup final, because every other team that plays us will.
This is what I think as well. I don't think we'll go down but we certainly won't be going up. It's all about next season now, and somehow we've got to finally sort out the mess that is Aston Villa.
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Brighton suffered similar under Hypia, although Hoghton did well to keep them up in the end. They settled on a system and a squad that they've only added piecemeal to and have been very competitive the past few years.
The quality is there. Newcastle apart, man for man there is no better. Use the free time wisely.
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And if we do sort it out, it'll be more about the culture and attitude at the club, rather than the money spent, players or managers not being good enough. As has been pointed out, the people we're getting into the club can't all be shit.
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We've spent enough money now.
Of course there's always opportunity for more...we need to settle the keeper situation and a new CB is required but aside from that let's have a focused pre season settling on a formation and style of play and hopefully we can get off to a good start and things can progress from there.
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We're not going up and we're not going down. There will be good and bad games until the end of this season. hopefully next season we'll have learned the lesson that being Aston Villa doesn't mean you don't have to treat each and every game like a cup final, because every other team that plays us will.
This is what I think as well. I don't think we'll go down but we certainly won't be going up. It's all about next season now, and somehow we've got to finally sort out the mess that is Aston Villa.
We have another sixty-two games in this division. Plenty of games to get out - at the top end I hope.
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Most realistic bit of Promotion Maths I've seen for a wee while. Should crack it in 62 games, eh ?
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And how many points have we amassed from the last 62 games?
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And how many points have we amassed from the last 62 games?
No more than fifty, in truth. ***oops***
I did say I only hoped we'd get out at the top end...
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Yes, but we didn't have SB and 3-5-2 then !
And I am convinced Hogan will only get better now he has realised that Kodjia is his rival not his friend.
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Yes, but we didn't have SB and 3-5-2 then !
And I am convinced Hogan will only get better now he has realised that Kodjia is his rival not his friend.
Correct talk, BOB MANSFIELD!
When Hogan twigs "that Kodjia is his rival not his friend", he will be a calmer, karma chameleon.
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When Hogan twigs "that Kodjia is his rival not his friend", he will be a calmer, karma chameleon.
It feels like there's an eighties thing going on here. Hogan (Paul?) and karma chameleon (Boy George?)
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Well?
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When you consider we had those 2 runs which combined were 1 win in 21 it's bloody frustrating!
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Sheff Wednesday in 6th on 62 points are on track for 75 points, although their form has gone down the toilet. Still 4 wins and a draw would give them 75 points.
We are on 51 with 8 games left, maximum of 24 points = 75 points.
The dream is alive !!!
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Yes, but we didn't have SB and 3-5-2 then !
And I am convinced Hogan will only get better now he has realised that Kodjia is his rival not his friend.
Correct talk, BOB MANSFIELD!
When Hogan twigs "that Kodjia is his rival not his friend", he will be a calmer, karma chameleon.
At the moment Hogan must wonder whether he really wants to hurt him.
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When you consider we had those 2 runs which combined were 1 win in 21 it's bloody frustrating!
Even some of the draws, the results late on at the start of the season.
We have got a 20 point gap down to 11 in just a few games.
Frustrating. I want to believe though.
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Well?
No chance.
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A great white hangs around in the depths and then accelerates upwards at frightnening speed at the last moment breaking surface to claim its kill .....
dur duh dur duh durduh durduh durduh durduh
Nice Rioja
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Sheff Wed have been gone for some time but Fulham despite losing today look the only team to take their place for the play offs.
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251/1 to finish in the top 6 with Bet365.
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top of the league (form)
http://www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=england2
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top of the league (form)
http://www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=england2
Also shows what an annoying decent job the West Country morlock has started to do with QPR.
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I just tried to stick £40 on at 250/1 for promotion.
Cant.
Market suspended.
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251/1 to finish in the top 6 with Bet365.
I am afraid it won't happen. If we were to win all remaining 8 yes we will be in the mix however it's not one team we have to chase it's 3 or 4 for the 6th place and not all of the will have a melt down.
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251/1 to finish in the top 6 with Bet365.
I am afraid it won't happen. If we were to win all remaining 8 yes we will be in the mix however it's not one team we have to chase it's 3 or 4 for the 6th place and not all of the will have a melt down.
forget derby and barnsley, we will pass them with ease.
we have fulham and norwich to play in the chasing pack.
norwich have an awful run-in, 6 teams in the top half of the table.
points in last 6 games : us 15, sheff weds 4, fulham 9, norwich 6, preston 9
in amongst last games of season : fulham play sheff weds
we just have to win all 8 left !
sheff weds
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We've gained 11 points on Sheff Wed in the last six games, and still remain 11 behind, very galling what happened earlier in the season, but a la Paul Weller, "Belief Is All, Boy Wonder."
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I just tried to stick £40 on at 250/1 for promotion.
Cant.
Market suspended.
Are you sure that price was ever there? Sounds way too high.
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I just tried to stick £40 on at 250/1 for promotion.
Cant.
Market suspended.
Are you sure that price was ever there? Sounds way too high.
Yep . Bet365 just after result. See post in the match thread from someone else. But it seems to have gone now, quelle surprise.
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Win the next three and then start dreaming.
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Not going to happen.
I used this calculator, and even giving us every game, and giving the teams ahead of us a couple of bad results, we'd still only just scrape into the playoffs.
http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/
And I don't think we're playing well enough, or have a fit enough squad to possibly win all remaining games anyway.
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Would take a miracle
But next season - if Newcastle, Brighton and Leeds go up; Sunderland, hull and boro down. We really should have a great chance of automatic promotion
We'll need a permanent keeper, a new centre back and an alternative defensive midfielder to Jedinak for me
And some serious work on the training ground to start passing the ball properly
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Not keen on the Leeds love-in, fk em.
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Would take a miracle
But next season - if Newcastle, Brighton and Leeds go up; Sunderland, hull and boro down. We really should have a great chance of automatic promotion
We'll need a permanent keeper, a new centre back and an alternative defensive midfielder to Jedinak for me
And some serious work on the training ground to start passing the ball properly
Yep this for me. Reading likely lose players and maybe Stam. Huddersfield similar.
So that leaves us Wednesday and Derby, maybe Cardiff with Warbollock in charge. One or two other underachievers (Forest, QPR, Wolves) if they get their act together - not looking all that likely.
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Would take a miracle
But next season - if Newcastle, Brighton and Leeds go up; Sunderland, hull and boro down. We really should have a great chance of automatic promotion
We'll need a permanent keeper, a new centre back and an alternative defensive midfielder to Jedinak for me
And some serious work on the training ground to start passing the ball properly
Passing the ball is important.
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I just tried to stick £40 on at 250/1 for promotion.
Cant.
Market suspended.
Are you sure that price was ever there? Sounds way too high.
Bet365 accepted a £12 max bet this morning on us getting promoted at 250/1.
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Even just siz more points and I'd fancy us massively to make the top 6.
We won't make it this year but surely we'll be up there this time next year...we've pretty much given the top 6 a 20 point head start this year and I assume we won't be so generous next time.
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You can get 100/1 on Skybet for us to finish in the top 6. It's doubtful but maybe worth a saft quid.
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Those last minute goals under RDM and the awful January are the reason we will be plying our trade in the Championship again next year. Just imagine had we had a modest 6 points more; we'd really fancy our chances.
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Those last minute goals under RDM and the awful January are the reason we will be plying our trade in the Championship again next year. Just imagine had we had a modest 6 points more; we'd really fancy our chances.
We're so far off premier league quality though
I'd rather we try and build a genuinely good team, with established shape, which passes the ball properly
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Not keen on the Leeds love-in, fk em.
Nor me. I've no major issue with them as a club, but Gary Monk is the most gracious-less ****** you will ever hear in an after match interview. I really can't stand him.
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The maths are so simple I can't see why we're on page 39 here...
Our points total needs to be greater than that of 22 other Championship teams, NEXT season. I won't cloud the solution yet by trying to explain goal difference but am happy to come on here do so if necessary in 12 months time.
Sorted. A Promotion Geography thread would have been much more fun.
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The maths are so simple I can't see why we're on page 39 here...
Our points total needs to be greater than that of 22 other Championship teams, NEXT season. I won't cloud the solution yet by trying to explain goal difference but am happy to come on here do so if necessary in 12 months time.
Sorted. A Promotion Geography thread would have been much more fun.
The route to promotion may go through Fleetwood or Scunthorpe. With an outside chance of passing through Horfield
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OK
Some still think it's possible, please lay out your Theory here.
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OK
Some still think it's possible, please lay out your Theory here.
We are ten points behind.
We have 21 points to play for.
We have had a 12 points swing in our favour over the past seven games.
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We will be a point off the last playoff spot.
That's because Legion supports Aston Villa.
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Theory
A complete outside chance. But a chance.
We have to win all our remaining 7 (but we have won 6 out of last 7, so not a total non-starter). That would get us to 75 points.
We are now 10 points behind Fulham, who are averaging 1.8 points a game over the season which would get them to 77 points.
Having said that in the last 5 games they have only won 1 game (today against Rotherham) and drawn 2, so latest form is 5 points from 15. We got 12.
But we still have to play Fulham (away).
Fulham's last game : away to Sheffield Wednesday.
Point that damages our chances : their goal diff is +20, ours is +2.
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Win the next two and it's on.
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We'd have to beat Fulham away to have any chance you'd think...do that and the gap would be 7 points.
Still think we're about 5-6 points off where we should be which is very frustrating given we effectively took half the season off when you combine our two terrible runs this season.
That's why it's important we come out firing in August. Another slow start won't be good enough for me as it would put too much pressure on us to catch up like this season.
Let's be setting the pace in the early weeks of August. This team is capable.
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We will be a point off the last playoff spot.
That's because Legion supports Aston Villa.
We'll win 6 and draw 1 against Small Heath and they'll have it in their honours list and have an open top bus parade around Sherlock Street
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We'd have to beat Fulham away to have any chance you'd think...do that and the gap would be 7 points.
Still think we're about 5-6 points off where we should be which is very frustrating given we effectively took half the season off when you combine our two terrible runs this season.
That's why it's important we come out firing in August. Another slow start won't be good enough for me as it would put too much pressure on us to catch up like this season.
Let's be setting the pace in the early weeks of August. This team is capable.
Problem is we don't exist in a bubble. It's tempting to think that this side with one or two key additions should be well able for it next season. But sides with money in the top flight will look at Kodjia, for example (or maybe even Chester). Then you would be talking about reshaping the side again and another period of transition.
Historically, the odds are against sides going back at the second attempt too.
If we have any chance at all this season, we have to go for it.
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Win the next two and it's on.
No afraid not. It's going to be a season of regrets. If only we had picked up 7 points out of 24 rather than 1 in that atrocious run in the new year.
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Win the next two and it's on.
No afraid not. It's going to be a season of regrets. If only we had picked up 7 points out of 24 rather than 1 in that atrocious run in the new year.
Win the next two and the gap could theoretically be cut to 4 points.
That won't happen, as not all the sides above us will lose their next two (statistically impossible if some of them are playing each other - I haven't checked).
But if the gap is down to six points, for the sake of argument, with the games we have left there will be plenty of sides nervous about the juggernaut that is Aston Villa blasting past them on the final stretch.
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We've no chance, unfortunately.
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Win the next two and it's on.
No afraid not. It's going to be a season of regrets. If only we had picked up 7 points out of 24 rather than 1 in that atrocious run in the new year.
Win the next two and the gap could theoretically be cut to 4 points.
That won't happen, as not all the sides above us will lose their next two (statistically impossible if some of them are playing each other - I haven't checked).
But if the gap is down to six points, for the sake of argument, with the games we have left there will be plenty of sides nervous about the juggernaut that is Aston Villa blasting past them on the final stretch.
I like the cut of your cloth young man? Game on and make no mistake!
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I think it's going to cruelly close at the end. 1 or two points.
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Sheff Wed look broken and Fulham have a very tough run in.
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We will be a point off the last playoff spot.
That's because Legion supports Aston Villa.
We'll win 6 and draw 1 against Small Heath and they'll have it in their honours list and have an open top bus parade around Sherlock Street
Where's that?
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Fixtures
Fulham 64 pts
Derby - a
Ipswich -h
Norwich -a
Villa -h
Huddersfield -a
Brentford -h
Sheffield Weds - a
Sheffield Weds 63 pts
Rotherham - a
Newcastle - h
Cardiff -h
QPR - a
Derby - h
Ipswich - a
Fulham -h
Us 54 pts
QPR - h
Burton - a
Reading - h
Fulham - a
Bluenoses - h
Blackburn - a
Brighton - h
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#BELIEVE
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I have joined the Church of the latter day Promotion Believers.
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Surely not?!
We'd have to win every game and Both Fulham and Wednesday would have to go into relegation form
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Fixtures
Fulham 64 pts
Derby - a
Ipswich -h
Norwich -a
Villa -h
Huddersfield -a
Brentford -h
Sheffield Weds - a
Sheffield Weds 63 pts
Rotherham - a
Newcastle - h
Cardiff -h
QPR - a
Derby - h
Ipswich - a
Fulham -h
Us 54 pts
QPR - h
Burton - a
Reading - h
Fulham - a
Bluenoses - h
Blackburn - a
Brighton - h
That Fulham run in is horrendous.
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Fulham will get at least 10 more points.
They won at Newcastle comfortably the other week I remember.
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Fixtures
Fulham 64 pts
Derby - a
Ipswich -h
Norwich -a
Villa -h
Huddersfield -a
Brentford -h
Sheffield Weds - a
Sheffield Weds 63 pts
Rotherham - a
Newcastle - h
Cardiff -h
QPR - a
Derby - h
Ipswich - a
Fulham -h
Us 54 pts
QPR - h
Burton - a
Reading - h
Fulham - a
Bluenoses - h
Blackburn - a
Brighton - h
That Fulham run in is horrendous.
Believe
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On the basis that we need to take each game as it comes:
Tuesday/Weds
Aston Villa v QPR Home win
Derby v Fulham. Draw (or Derby win?)
PNE v Bristol City. Home win
Rotherham v Wendy Away win
Hudds v Norwich. Home win
Really need Rotherham to do Wendy.
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We can't do it.
We won't do it.
And even if we could do it, you've all jinxed it by thinking we can.
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We can't do it.
We won't do it.
And even if we could do it, you've all jinxed it by thinking we can.
Burn the heretic!
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I said at the time if we beat Huddersfield, we would be in with a chance. I still stand by that. So we will fall a couple of points short.
Africas Nations Cup will have cost us promotion.
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Fixtures
Fulham 64 pts
Derby - a
Ipswich -h 74
Norwich -a
Villa -h
Huddersfield -a
Brentford -h
Sheffield Weds - a
Sheffield Weds 63 pts
Rotherham - a
Newcastle - h
Cardiff -h
QPR - a 73
Derby - h
Ipswich - a
Fulham -h
Us 54 pts
QPR - h
Burton - a
Reading - h 75
Fulham - a
Bluenoses - h
Blackburn - a
Brighton - h
bugger sorry mate can't be arsed to change it again!
;D
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Let's not do this to ourselves. Dr Tony has got it right: forget the maths, just concentrate on getting the wins. There's no need to cloud any growing positivity or focus with stress and anxiety about whether we'll make the playoffs or not. Save that for next season. It's more likely we'll be looking down the table rather than up.
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you can't go through two periods of dire form like we have and go up. It was, though, the first 12vgames that did for us. The only positive of RDM was buying Kodjia.
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you can't go through two periods of dire form like we have and go up. It was, though, the first 12vgames that did for us. The only positive of RDM was buying Kodjia.
Why was it the first 12 that did for us, when that bad spell under Bruce was far worse points wise?
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you can't go through two periods of dire form like we have and go up. It was, though, the first 12vgames that did for us. The only positive of RDM was buying Kodjia.
Why was it the first 12 that did for us, when that bad spell under Bruce was far worse points wise?
Surely we gave teams like Huddersfield 10-15 points start.
Let's not forget we had to go on a very good 2 month run under SB from when he joined just to get back in the top half. Even at xmas after beating Burton we were still I think 7 points off 6th.
It's not like August when everyone starts on 0 points.
As pleased as I am with our good current form I'd much rather see us as relentless like this in August. Just hope when the pressure is back on we don't go back to drawing and losing games 1-0.
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Enjoy the wins and the improving performances this season.
Win the title next season.
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Leaving the maths to one side. Are we ready for promotion both on and off the field?
The team is coming together but I believe we're still three or four players short.
Don't forget off the field we were a shambles from top to bottom and it must be a mammoth task to turn that around. Wyness seems to be making a good start on getting the back office stuff sorted and we're becoming a well run club again.
Although I'd love to see us make the play offs I don't think the club as a whole is quite ready for promotion yet.
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Good point TLP
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Leaving the maths to one side. Are we ready for promotion both on and off the field?
The team is coming together but I believe we're still three or four players short.
Don't forget off the field we were a shambles from top to bottom and it must be a mammoth task to turn that around. Wyness seems to be making a good start on getting the back office stuff sorted and we're becoming a well run club again.
Although I'd love to see us make the play offs I don't think the club as a whole is quite ready for promotion yet.
I'd worry about that if we got there. What a ride it would be to win every game from now on in and get promoted at Wembley.
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let's face it if we had a Wembley Cup run with that set of fixtures we would fancy our chances
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C8begwxXkAI0Jsf.jpg:large)
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Only Rotherham look in complete control ;D
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We could still get relegated and I'm really worried now. ;)
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I for one am incredibly nervous.
My other half has booked our summer holidays. We're going to Santa Monica, Palm Springs and then to downtown Los Angeles.
My only concern is the dates collide with the play off final. The final would be three days into the final I said I couldn't commit until I knew our fate but she was adamant on booking before prices go up. Purely because of the 3 kids and them missing time off school and prices going up after the whit-week holidays.
As insurance I've stuck £20 @ 50/1 to make the play off final +a free £10 bet with Sky bet. That would get me £1500 return. More than enough to allow me to fly back for 36 hours during the holiday for any eventual final.
I feel sick at the thought of it to be honest. Upsetting the Mrs. But I've been to all but 3 away games this season. There's no way I could miss a final. Part of me hopes we don't make it just so I can rule it out.
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Leaving the maths to one side. Are we ready for promotion both on and off the field?
The team is coming together but I believe we're still three or four players short.
Don't forget off the field we were a shambles from top to bottom and it must be a mammoth task to turn that around. Wyness seems to be making a good start on getting the back office stuff sorted and we're becoming a well run club again.
Although I'd love to see us make the play offs I don't think the club as a whole is quite ready for promotion yet.
I'd worry about that if we got there. What a ride it would be to win every game from now on in and get promoted at Wembley.
Indeed. Not to mention the club would have the certainty of Premier League money next season, so any additions would be better quality than if they were planned on another season of parachute payments.
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We've gained 6 points on Fulham in the last 7 games, in the remaining 7 we need to gain 10 points and overturn the 18 GD advantage they have, or gain 11 points. Fulham have lost 4 games in 4 months. Not gonna happen imo.
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We've gained 6 points on Fulham in the last 7 games, in the remaining 7 we need to gain 10 points and overturn the 18 GD advantage they have, or gain 11 points. Fulham have lost 4 games in 4 months. Not gonna happen imo.
No I agree, I'm just focussing on momentum for next year and starting a season from a positive foundation for the first time in an age.
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Fulham have 4 potentially tough away matches and they play us. I know they beat Newcastle away but Newcastle's home form hasn't been brilliant considering they are top.
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I'm looking forward to feeling gutted the season's over. We'll fall short, but it won't be by many. Two wins difference, something along those lines. A small handful of games more to play would've made things very exciting.
Be a nice change from praying for the feckin things to just be over.
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It would need Fulham, Sheffieled Wed & Preston all to all have a poor run in and for us to keep up our incredible run. I can't see either happening. If we get another 12-14 points it will have still been a fantastic final quarter of the season which we wouldn't have dreamed about in Jan and good momentum for next year.
If we win 4 and draw 1 or 2 of the last 7 games, that will still be a good return.
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We've gained 6 points on Fulham in the last 7 games, in the remaining 7 we need to gain 10 points and overturn the 18 GD advantage they have, or gain 11 points. Fulham have lost 4 games in 4 months. Not gonna happen imo.
It's not just them either. Realistically there's only that final slot in the play offs going (for us, at any rate) and I just don't believe that we're going to make up enough points on all 5 teams above us. As tough as Fulham's run in looks, they've only lost 1 in 8, and they only need 11 points from 21 to guarantee finishing above us, even if we do win all 7. Not going to happen I'm afraid.
I'll just be content with finishing the season strongly, and using it as a springboard for a flying start next season, when there can be no excuses whatsoever.
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It's unlikely to say the least. I think we can only drop 2 points maximum and even then we may not have enough. I'd love for us to do it, but that being said I would be concerned about us being a year too soon for the Premiership. We can't just flog off 11 and buy in 11 again. There has to be cohesion so we would have to make 3-4 very good purchases to improve us and give us the quality to stay up.
Another year of building a proper team, developing our style and really getting us on a sustained amount of forward momentum in the Champ, wouldn't be the worst thing.
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Wednesday have blow the play offs it seems. Not surprised as they're hugely unimpressive. I've fancied Fulham for the top six for a while.
Be nice if we can put a squeeze on though and run it close. Give everybody a dose of fear for next season about the Dreadnought that is Aston Villa in full motion.
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Even if we did, we'd probably knacker ourselves out and lose to a jammy goal in the second leg of the semi-finals.
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We've gained 6 points on Fulham in the last 7 games, in the remaining 7 we need to gain 10 points and overturn the 18 GD advantage they have, or gain 11 points. Fulham have lost 4 games in 4 months. Not gonna happen imo.
The irony is that Fulham were one of the crappest teams to come to VP this season. So depressing that they're so far ahead of us.
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We're no near ready for a return to the premiership. A miracle won't happen but if we did just for the sake of it make the play offs, would we have any gas spare for another 3 games?
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Don't torture yourselves with promotion talk. We will end up a few points short. But this run is a great way to get ourselves ready for next season's title push.
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We've gained 6 points on Fulham in the last 7 games, in the remaining 7 we need to gain 10 points and overturn the 18 GD advantage they have, or gain 11 points. Fulham have lost 4 games in 4 months. Not gonna happen imo.
The irony is that Fulham were one of the crappest teams to come to VP this season. So depressing that they're so far ahead of us.
Jokanovic must have got his tactics wrong that day. They're generally full of goals and I think their central trio of McDonald, Johansen and Tom Cairney is the best in the league.
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They can't be that full of goals - I don't think they had a single shot on target against us and I can't remember them actually spending much time in our half! Garbage.
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It's unlikely to say the least. I think we can only drop 2 points maximum and even then we may not have enough. I'd love for us to do it, but that being said I would be concerned about us being a year too soon for the Premiership. We can't just flog off 11 and buy in 11 again. There has to be cohesion so we would have to make 3-4 very good purchases to improve us and give us the quality to stay up.
Another year of building a proper team, developing our style and really getting us on a sustained amount of forward momentum in the Champ, wouldn't be the worst thing.
This
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We're no near ready for a return to the premiership. A miracle won't happen but if we did just for the sake of it make the play offs, would we have any gas spare for another 3 games?
Probably, because we'd be the form team. But as others have said, we'd be better off with another twelve months of winning and building a Premier League team gradually.
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One game at a time for me, Derby Fulham draw, give Sheff Wed the win, We win, not worried about Preston, 9 points to make up. Believe.
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They can't be that full of goals - I don't think they had a single shot on target against us and I can't remember them actually spending much time in our half! Garbage.
Judging a team solely by how they played against us is reductive They hammered Newcastle at their place recently, it doesn't make Fulham the best side in the league either. But they're sixth for a reason.
Brentford must be seething they're not miles ahead of us after ripping us to shreds when we played there. They'd be silly to, though.
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Barnsley ripped us apart in February and put in the best performance I've seen this season by any team at Villa Park. By comparison, Fulham - much as I have a soft spot for them - looked awful as did Wednesday and Newcastle.
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I thought we were easily the better side for the first half against Barnsley. They hadn't had a kick when they got awarded the softest of penalties. Then they fired in a second soon after with the second time they'd ventured into our box.
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They can't be that full of goals - I don't think they had a single shot on target against us and I can't remember them actually spending much time in our half! Garbage.
Judging a team solely by how they played against us is reductive They hammered Newcastle at their place recently, it doesn't make Fulham the best side in the league either. But they're sixth for a reason.
Brentford must be seething they're not miles ahead of us after ripping us to shreds when we played there. They'd be silly to, though.
Even SHA beat Fulham 1-0 in February.
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Tomorrow night will be a great night for Huddersfield to come out of their slump and bag a load of goals vs NCFC
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On Saturday we could be only 6 points behind.
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Another point gained tonight.
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It isn't going to happen in my opinion but at least we are putting in some groundwork for next season.
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3 points gained on Fulham and we still have to play them.
Sheff Weds 9 points ahead but they play Newcastle on the weekend.
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Still don't think we'll finish top 6, but at least it's interesting and fun to think there's a smidgen of a chance.
Current table and Saturday's fixtures
(http://thumb.ibb.co/fMf4iv/02.jpg) (http://ibb.co/fMf4iv)
(http://thumb.ibb.co/b5GzGF/02a.jpg) (http://ibb.co/b5GzGF)
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We are at home to Brighton last game who will already be promoted. Wednesday are at home to.... you guessed it . Fulham. This is going to the wire.
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All we can do is keep winning and hope for our rivals to slip-up.
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I still think we'll fall just short (I reckon we'll wind up 8th) but winning is a fine habit.
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Still don't think we'll finish top 6, but at least it's interesting and fun to think there's a smidgen of a chance.
Current table and Saturday's fixtures
(http://thumb.ibb.co/fMf4iv/02.jpg) (http://ibb.co/fMf4iv)
(http://thumb.ibb.co/b5GzGF/02a.jpg) (http://ibb.co/b5GzGF)
It's not funny for me. My Mrs has already booked 2 weeks in LA during play-off final dates!
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#believe
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All we can do is keep winning and hope for our rivals to slip-up.
The problem is there are 5 rivals not 1 so it's extremely difficult.
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They can't be that full of goals - I don't think they had a single shot on target against us and I can't remember them actually spending much time in our half! Garbage.
Newcastle 1-3 Fulham
Fulham 3-1 Preston
Fulham 5-0 Reading
Wolves 4-4 Fulham
Fulham 5-0 Huddersfield (this was actually a week after the Villa away game).
Some of Fulham's results this season against the better teams in the league. I think Jokanovic just got his tactics wrong that day.
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We're 150:1 to go up for a reason folks
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So want to believe but honestly think we will fall short by more than one or two points. Can't afford one slip up and have to play them horrible blue shit And we haven't the best record in the world against them
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Still don't think we'll finish top 6, but at least it's interesting and fun to think there's a smidgen of a chance.
Current table and Saturday's fixtures
(http://thumb.ibb.co/fMf4iv/02.jpg) (http://ibb.co/fMf4iv)
(http://thumb.ibb.co/b5GzGF/02a.jpg) (http://ibb.co/b5GzGF)
It's not funny for me. My Mrs has already booked 2 weeks in LA during play-off final dates!
Nor me.....I've got a knee operation scheduled for two days after the Brighton game.
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So want to believe but honestly think we will fall short by more than one or two points. Can't afford one slip up and have to play them horrible blue shit And we haven't the best record in the world against them
We've won 7 of the last 11 against the rags, they've won 1. It's just we don't crow about it like we've completed football.
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In all likelihood we need two fairly in form teams to completely implode and to not even draw any of our remaining games. Big ask!
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Can see Norwich maybe getting a point tonight at Hudds but they'll probably lose.
Saturdays games
Blues v Derby Away Win
Burton v Villa. Away Win
Fulham v Ipswich. Home Win
Leeds v PNE. Draw
Norwich v Reading. Draw
Wendy v Newcastle. Away Win
Easter weekend looks a biggy though why o why are we the only team that hadn't moved its Saturday game to Good Friday? Fulham will have an extra 24 hrs rest.
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As I remember it 1-0 to 2-0 ( I think) and were playing okay, tehn got it back to 2-1 and were on top. Then shipped a 3rd and it was good night Vienna.
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If we win every game between now and the end of the season it still only takes us to 75 points which I can't see being enough this year.
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No it won't. We'll end up I think on low-mid 60s . A spread of 64 - 67.
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If we win every game between now and the end of the season it still only takes us to 75 points which I can't see being enough this year.
6th place was 74 points last season. I think it'll be closer to 78 points this season.
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If we win every game between now and the end of the season it still only takes us to 75 points which I can't see being enough this year.
6th place was 74 points last season. I think it'll be closer to 78 points this season.
I fear you may be right, but whilst there's still hope I refuse not to get ridiculously excited about the possibility. #believe
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They can't be that full of goals - I don't think they had a single shot on target against us and I can't remember them actually spending much time in our half! Garbage.
Newcastle 1-3 Fulham
Fulham 3-1 Preston
Fulham 5-0 Reading
Wolves 4-4 Fulham
Fulham 5-0 Huddersfield (this was actually a week after the Villa away game).
Some of Fulham's results this season against the better teams in the league. I think Jokanovic just got his tactics wrong that day.
And they got spanked by Derby last night. They're rubbish.
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They're the second highest scorers in the division, that suggests they are pretty full of goals.
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Fulham have shit the bed since they won at Newcastle. Wednesday's win last night was their first in five games. They both beat Rotherham, so what, everyone does. There are definite points-a-dropping there. It's such a shame we have effectively no margin for error. As soon as we don't win that's probably it.
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Win all games and it may just be enough. We have to win them all though and Reading and Brighton have been pretty good this season.
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6 cup finals!
We're good at them...
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The teams that stay up are the yo-yos that have managed to add to their team, or those that have settled teams that build together. Even if by some twist of football fate we got into the play-offs and went up, we'd have to spend a lot of money on virtually a new team again with the pitfalls of what we saw last year, the start of this year and January/February this year. I'd never choose to stay down but in reality we need that extra year to consolidate and build on the successes of this season which are Kodjia, Chester, and Jedinak with a decent midfield. The spine is starting to take shape. Add in Hutton who has come good as the season wears on and Taylor looking solid as a full-back and we are in a better position for next season. Finish well but I'd be happy with 7th or 8th.
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Easter weekend looks a biggy though why o why are we the only team that hadn't moved its Saturday game to Good Friday? Fulham will have an extra 24 hrs rest.
The Sky shilling, I guess. We've not been on for ages, typical that they've missed our in-form run whereas before they were screening us every second game up to that point (of which we only one on the box, QPR and Kodjia Part I).
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Norwich getting battered, one less team to worry about. We're going to do it you know.
Believe.
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Norwich getting battered, one less team to worry about. We're going to do it you know.
Believe.
Welcome to the Church, brother.
#believe
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Saturday at 7.30 is the next to look at the table.
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Saturday at 7.30 is the next to look at the table.
Saturday is key really. If it still 9 points after Saturday then it is hard to see them losing at least three out of the last five. If the gap is down to six though, then it could well be on.
Derby under Rowett are a bit of a concern though.
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I've just had a fiver at 250/1 for us to go up
Over to you Ron.............."do you want to bet against us?"
I can dream the dream.
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I've just had a fiver at 250/1 for us to go up
Over to you Ron.............."do you want to bet against us?"
I can dream the dream.
That interview after the Ipswich loss was ace. We all knew when he said those words that we would win the title. Belief.
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It's great to see such momentum on our part and it's nice to have the feeling of treating a win as something normal, rather than a complete shock, for us fans.
It's also nice to have something to chase and work towards. I feel we will just miss out this season, but this experience can only be a good one for a more settled, together squad.
Fair play to Steve Bruce and his team. I was massively against giving him the job, but credit where credit is due. He's made us very hard to beat, which I love. Automatic promotion has to be the aim for next season, and I feel with the momentum we have now, it'll carry on after the summer.
Let's beat Burton on Saturday and see where it then leaves us. Up the Villa.
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Saturday at 7.30 is the next to look at the table.
Saturday is key really. If it still 9 points after Saturday then it is hard to see them losing at least three out of the last five. If the gap is down to six though, then it could well be on.
Derby under Rowett are a bit of a concern though.
This for me too, they also seem to be coming out of their poor patch are two points better off than us, and looking at the fixtures have plenty of mid-table fodder to play. I hope our neighbours can do us a favour on Saturday! It's really not inconceivable, given the fixtures that it could well be 6 points on Saturday evening, although Burton will be tough.
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Just nice to see us top of a table
http://www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=england2
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Just nice to see us top of a table
http://www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=england2
I thought that was going to be the Ugandan table for a minute, SC Villa are top of the table but KCC have a couple of games in hand; I'm hoping to be back there with work & catch a game next month.
Thanks for this though, had been wondering how form tables look. Really contrasts Villa & Blues though eh, and what a turn round for Wolves across those two tables?!
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Just nice to see us top of a table
http://www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=england2
If all the teams' form for their next six games is the same as their last six, we will miss the playoffs by 1point.
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Just nice to see us top of a table
http://www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=england2
If all the teams' form for their next six games is the same as their last six, we will miss the playoffs by 1point.
That being the case I think the dropped points that annoy me most will probably be home to Ipswich - How are Ipswich the only side to beat us at Villa Park?
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well, them and Barnsley...
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I'd never previously walked out on a Villa performance but I did that night. Total shite which finished me off before an hour had been played.
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Opening 20 minutes we were quite decent v Barnsley but again shows our fragile nature when we concede first. I've seen far worse anyway.
By all accounts Wigan at home was a horrendous game of football but we won that late so it gets forgotten.
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Oh well, fun while it lasted but calculators away and look forward to the derby.
UTV!
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it's the hope that kills you
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Even though I knew the playoffs weren't going to happen, this afternoon annoyed me far more than a stroll at a non-league ground should have.
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Best thing to do now is to decide who we want to get promoted via the playoffs, i.e. who would be the biggest challengers to the Villa next season. I'll go with Leeds, followed by Derby.
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Let's be honest we were always likely to draw/lose a game at some point, it was a massive ask to win all our games. But whilst it was still possible why not dream and hope, this is supposed to be fun after all.
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Best thing to do now is to decide who we want to get promoted via the playoffs, i.e. who would be the biggest challengers to the Villa next season. I'll go with Leeds, followed by Derby.
Sheff Weds will be there or there about next season. They're sinking now due to all the injuries they've had in the last few months.
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they usually are but always look like bridesmaids to me. MiddlesVilla will be a threat if they drop, personally if Leeds don't go up, I can't see them sustaining another tilt next season - there's nothing in past Chumps league campaigns to suggest they can.
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Lock the thread !!!
etc
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Lock the thread !!!
etc
Believe ;-)
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The way I see it, RDM's ineffectual management and inability to see out games from winning positions cost us the chance of automatic promotion. Bruce's brain-freeze in Jan and Feb regarding team selection, formations and tactics cost us the chance of a play off position. My own expectations this year were to arrest the slide started by Lerner's mis-management over many seasons and to consolidate. We've done that winning 12 more games and 41 more points, to date. I know this has been done in the championship, but it had to be done somewhere. Besides the holy grail of the premier league is not all it's made out to be. In my view you could swop any of the teams in the premier league from the bitters down with any of the top half teams in the championship and you wouldn't notice much difference only in the amount of money splashing around. Expectations next season are to get promoted, hopefully by playing better football, scoring more goals and winning more away games!! UTV VTID
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I agree with a lot of that. I can't remember who they were playing, but I was watching a Watford game at VP on the monitors comparatively recently before kick off, and it was dire turgid stuff - several teams at VP this season have struck me as being quite handy and certainly no worse than middle to bottom-ish PL sides. The ACON seemed to really disrupt us in January and, as you say, Bruce didn't respond well - however, for me, the real damage was done in the first quarter of the season - one win and nine ( I think) draws from the first 12 was appalling and was always going to leave the proverbial mountain to climb, particularly as the top three or four have hardly changed since.
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I agree with a lot of that. I can't remember who they were playing, but I was watching a Watford game at VP on the monitors comparatively recently before kick off, and it was dire turgid stuff - several teams at VP this season have struck me as being quite handy and certainly no worse than middle to bottom-ish PL sides. The ACON seemed to really disrupt us in January and, as you say, Bruce didn't respond well - however, for me, the real damage was done in the first quarter of the season - one win and nine ( I think) draws from the first 12 was appalling and was always going to leave the proverbial mountain to climb, particularly as the top three or four have hardly changed since.
The team was always going to take time to settle with so many new players. Also finding out some of the players we kept and some of the new players were not good enough but that was only going to be through seeing them play together. How many posters on here said so and so will be ok in the Championship or he was a good buy for where we are.
I think many lose sight of the turn around needed at the start of the season and only see the results of the spell under RDM. Granted, Bruce took over a side heading down but it was clear what he had to focus on and the players he could rely on. RDM did not have that luxury and spent most of the preseason turning over the squad, rather than coaching/improving fitness.
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Could now still get into playoffs if Reading get blocked by the premier league, due to them not meeting fit and proper owners for premier league.
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Could now still get into playoffs if Reading get blocked by the premier league, due to them not meeting fit and proper owners for premier league.
I'd say that's pretty unlikely. Even if the PL did block Reading (unlikely), they'd only have that decision to make if Reading won the play off final and then I'd assume the runners up would go up instead.
Either way it won't affect us.
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I'd like to close the thread I started.
It's now mathematically impossible.
Never mind eh ?