Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: villampls on September 12, 2015, 09:53:21 PM
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As of the evening of Saturday Sep 12 Sporting Index project Villa to get 38-39.5 points. That is the joint 2nd lowest (with Watford) of any team in the Premier League.
Norwich = 39.5 - 41
Bournemouth = 40 -41.5
Newcastle & WBA = 41 - 42.5
Stoke = 42 - 43.5
West Ham = 44 - 45.5
Leicester = 46.5 - 48
I think we will stay up as I believe our newer players will come good and I have faith in Tim. But looking at this objectively I can see why others have us as one of the favourites.
I would be very interested to hear from others, which points projections you think are wrong. I can see Leicester slipping and Bournemouth in the bottom 3.
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Do they have time machine then?
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What's that smell ??
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Horseshit
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I think we will have the same objective as shagging a mermaid and achieve a top half finish.
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I'm expecting (or hoping for?) High forties, maybe in the fifties. I think it's certainly worth betting against us getting fewer than 40 points.
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As of the evening of Saturday Sep 12 Sporting Index project Villa to get 38-39.5 points. That is the joint 2nd lowest (with Watford) of any team in the Premier League.
Norwich = 39.5 - 41
Bournemouth = 40 -41.5
Newcastle & WBA = 41 - 42.5
Stoke = 42 - 43.5
West Ham = 44 - 45.5
Leicester = 46.5 - 48
I think we will stay up as I believe our newer players will come good and I have faith in Tim. But looking at this objectively I can see why others have us as one of the favourites.
I would be very interested to hear from others, which points projections you think are wrong. I can see Leicester slipping and Bournemouth in the bottom 3.
Hope our neighbours don't plan any more relegation parties. They've had to cancel the last five and lost their deposits. No wonder they haven't got a pot to piss in.
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I agree with the OP. We just have to keep right on.
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We're only 34 wins away from being Champions. Piece of piss.
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My prediction was 44 points and I see no reason to change it. The only small fear I have from the games we have played is injuries to key players. Referees are weak and getting weaker. We lost Crespo after twenty minutes of a "friendly" against Forest and we lost Adama to a barrage of sustained clogging in that jelly and blancmange game against Notts County. We have high profile highly skilled attack minded players who will need fair refereeing in the worsening culture of foul play being sanitised as "taking one for the team". See Dann's tackle on Aguero yesterday.
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Might need to make a signing or two in the January window but I think we should be 'comfortable' by March/April. I think we will finish around 12th or 13th.
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I admire eveyone's optimism, but surely having spent £50m+ in the transfer window , we should not be 13/8 third favourites for relegation with Betfair. we were about that price in February when Lambert was still in charge. We seem to have signed someone in every position, but have not replaced Benteke with a decent signing. It will be our lack of goals that sees us bottom 10. Massive games coming up, and a win today at Leicester would be a good start on the road to improvement.
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Two new posters, two plugs for bookies.
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I admire eveyone's optimism, but surely having spent £50m+ in the transfer window , we should not be 13/8 third favourites for relegation with Betfair. we were about that price in February when Lambert was still in charge. We seem to have signed someone in every position, but have not replaced Benteke with a decent signing. It will be our lack of goals that sees us bottom 10. Massive games coming up, and a win today at Leicester would be a good start on the road to improvement.
Our net spend was nearer £9m
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We look like we have a fairly good squad now, and yet I can't see us not getting beat today at Leicester. I think it's way too early to make any kind of prediction because there has been such a turnover in players.
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Sheesh, another <40pt season?
I don't see it.
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Two new posters, two plugs for bookies.
Hmmmmm...
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It might not be far wrong if we pull that shit every fucking week.
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it might even be insanely generous. Big improvement needed very quickly - and that's just the manager
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A couple of things -
I've actually posted before, but lost my login, password and everything else. I would post more often if I had something insightful to say, but just like H&V and I think the majority of members are considerably better informed than I am.
I did work for Coral between 92 and 94, but I would not advocate gambling to anyone. Having said that bookmakers are the best way to see what an impartial and knowledgeable 3rd party thinks of our chances.
I am genuinely interested to hear how many points members think we will get. I really want to believe we will finish comfortably mid-table, but I'm a pessimist and the odds at the moment are very sobering. When things get better I'll post updated points projections.
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Sheesh, another <40pt season?
I don't see it.
Really?
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Bookies have us as second favourites for relegation now behind Sunderland.
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Bookies have us as second favourites for relegation now behind Sunderland.
I'll worry about that on the day bookies decide the league table.
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Bookies have us as second favourites for relegation now behind Sunderland.
the same bookies who had chelsea has champions about a mth ago
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Bookies have us as second favourites for relegation now behind Sunderland.
the same bookies who had chelsea has champions about a mth ago
Christ, how many times have we got to go through this?
That's not a reflection of a bookies educated guess. That's a reflection of where the public at large are putting money.
At this stage two noses putting a fiver each on could swing the odds like that.
Edit: Not a dig at you Juan Pablo.
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Welcome villampls.
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We played well enough to blow Sunderland out of the water and yesterday for most of the game at Leicester. We should have been well out of sight. I'll get worries when we actually play badly for large chunks of games like most of last season. We will learn from this and improve. Right now our biggest enemy is naivety.
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Another reason those figures are bollocks.
They reckon that the bottom team will finish with more points than the mark for safety for the last god knows how many seasons and, at the same time, the safety mark will be the second or third highest since the league went to twenty teams.
If the safety mark is so high it's generally the result of at least one team being cut well adrift - there's only so many points to go round.
Their scenario would mean the champions winning with around 70-75 points and the top 6 all being with 4-6 points of that. Not going to happen.
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Bookie's odds are not based on fact. They are marketing tools to encourage people to gamble. Bookie's know gambling is driven largely by sentiment and odds adjusted accordingly.
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Responding to a few comments like 'odds are bullshit', 'not based off fact', 'odds just represent opinion' etc.
There's some truth in some of these statements but they largely are inaccurate. Bookies odds are set to represent the probable outcome of whichever market they are looking at. If they weren't, bookies would quickly go out of business. It's partly true that they reflect the weight of money placed, but a high proportion of this money is now being placed by fairly professional punters also using reasonably sophisticated models, particularly from abroad.
Yes of course they're not always right, there is (luckily) a degree of randomness and unpredictability in football, but in a debate in our prospects this season they're a very legitimate, evidence-based input to consider.(Whether or not you agree with the morality of gambling and its promotion)
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I wonder where the Sporting Index would have had us finishing last season following a 10pts in 4 games start?
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That's all well and good Vegas, but that points model is obviously bollocks when it predicts an outcome like it has. Not just our end total, but the overall consequences for the league.
I can't be bothered to look up the prediction table, but looking at the bottom end of the table they must be predicting a total points take of over 3 points per game!
And in essence, the bookies aren't interested in the result. They're only interested in ensuring that their odds minimise there exposure to a big win.
Our odds for finishing top 6 are probably around 250-1 which would be reasonably fair unfortunately. If people started lumping on that, regardless of whether the bookie thinks it's still a daft bet and free money for him, he'll have to drop his odds to dissuade other people from following the crowd "just in case".
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I had Villa and West Ham to win the handicap league at 16/1 before the season started, Villa +46pts West Ham +40pts. Villa one is not looking too good.
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50 points and we're only in September. We're pissing the league!
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Dream of the lofty heights of Twelth
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That's all well and good Vegas, but that points model is obviously bollocks when it predicts an outcome like it has. Not just our end total, but the overall consequences for the league.
I can't be bothered to look up the prediction table, but looking at the bottom end of the table they must be predicting a total points take of over 3 points per game!
And in essence, the bookies aren't interested in the result. They're only interested in ensuring that their odds minimise there exposure to a big win.
Our odds for finishing top 6 are probably around 250-1 which would be reasonably fair unfortunately. If people started lumping on that, regardless of whether the bookie thinks it's still a daft bet and free money for him, he'll have to drop his odds to dissuade other people from following the crowd "just in case".
It's not bollocks. I think you're getting confused between two things, firstly the expected points per team, and secondly the expected points of the team that finishes bottom.
Think of it with dice. If you roll 6 dice, the expected 'average' score for any 1 of them is 3.5. But the expected score of the lowest dice (you don't know which one this will be before rolling) is around 1.4. So someone could look at each of the expected scores for each dice and say 'that's bollocks, one of these dice will definitely get lower than 3', and of course they'd be right. But the expected scores for each dice are indeed correct.
With football it's slightly more complicated as the teams aren't equal but the probability principle is the same.
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This is the current points spread being offered by Sporting Index:
Manchester City Points 85.5 87
Arsenal Points 77 78.5
Chelsea Points 72 73.5
Manchester United Points 71.5 73
Liverpool Points 62.5 64
Tottenham Points 54.5 56
Everton Points 54 55.5
Swansea Points 50 51.5
Crystal Palace Points 50 51.5
Southampton Points 50 51.5
Leicester Points 48.5 50
West Ham Points 46 47.5
Stoke Points 41.5 43
West Brom Points 40.5 42
Bournemouth Points 40 41.5
Norwich Points 39.5 41
Newcastle Points 39 40.5
Watford Points 39 40.5
Aston Villa Points 36.5 38
Sunderland Points 30.5 32
I think it looks fairly accurate regarding the total amount of points that will be accumulated. Obviously Villa will be on a good 15 points higher.
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Might need to make a signing or two in the January window but I think we should be 'comfortable' by March/April. I think we will finish around 12th or 13th.
I'm beginning to think that I may have been a tad optimistic for once. Still think we'll be ok but we may need another change of manager.
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I think it'll be us, Newcastle and Sunderland, and honestly, what reasonable football fan would be sad to see the back of any of the three, including us. Easily the three worst teams who have just about managed to avoid going down recently, this year I think could all three teams sink.
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imagine how much giant slaying that would bring about in the Championship.