Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: BegbieAV on December 29, 2012, 11:08:47 PM
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Will 40 points see us safe ? And if so do you think we will get them and where will they come from. 18 games to go I think we need at least another 5 or 6 wins. Basically we need a miracle.
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Me and Malteser head from Hot Chocolate believe in miracles.
Don't give up.
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Given up already
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There's more chance of me nailing Kylie Minogue than us getting 40 points. Not a hope in hell - I'd be amazed if we got 30
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In Lambert We Trust.
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How many points do ya think we will get? I think 37
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we just got tanked by wigan who are supposedly a soft touch.. Only team more powderpuff than us is the bindippers
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36 needed i reckon. 5 wins and a few draws will do us
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36 needed i reckon. 5 wins and a few draws will do us
Where will we get 5 wins from? We've won 6 in 39 games this calendar year. No chance whatsoever
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We'll get 43-47 points and be fine.
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PeterWithe r u mad ?
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40 points will be good enough for some team to stay up but it won't be us. I think we might just get 35 but I'm not optimistic about that.
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We'll get 43-47 points and be fine.
Say no to drugs, kids
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The key on the amount of points needed to stay up will be this January. I'm sure 'Arry will be wheeling and dealing and with the draw of high wages and London, will probably hoover up the types of players we will need. For example, I expect Parker to be a QPR player by Feb 1st. So we need to improve our team with better players then Reading, QPR and Southampton
As for matches, at least when we lose to Swansea, our rivals should all lose as well although one of them could get a shock result. But we definitely need 3 points against Southampton now. A loss then could see a 3 point and +15 or more GD between us and 17th place.
If we end January in the bottom two or adrift of 17th, we are down.
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Trust me we are down !
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We need six wins and four draws.
The games to target have to be Southampton, Weat Ham, QPR, Sunderland, Newcastle and Fulham at home, with Norwich, Wigan and Reading away.
Whether its doable remains to be seen. If you'd asked this time last week I would have said with ease. 7 days and 15 goals without reply later it suddenly seems unlikely.
January and who we buy is beyond critical.
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22 points, No chance!
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Did you start this thread ao you can debate or merely type "no chance" or "you're on drugs" to every considered reply?
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7 wins was enough to see us stop up last year.
I have a feeling 8 might be enough this year.
We've been arse for most of this season and yet we've still got 4 by the halfway stage. If we're still on 4 by the start of Feb, I'll be worried.
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Are babies have been thrown in, trying to run before they can walk, with no one older and reliable to help them.
How do you kick yourself out of a run like this without guys like Petrov to lead you? We've got tough fixtures on the horizon and the biggest problem too, is that every fixture now looks tough.
I think we'll seriously struggle to get close to 40. I do think the bottom 3 will likely all have 30-35 points, so we just have to hope it's enough. Our side is so weak though that I can see us taking a few more batterings too. Our goal difference might be what sends us down.
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PeterWithe r u mad ?
What's wrong with being positive? Considering all you've done is say how shit everything is.
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We knew this season was going to be a battle although i don't think anyone saw us losing 3-0 to Wigan at home.
I think 38 points would see us safe this season but we might struggle to get to that.
The other worry is that QPR and Reading have the potential to spend big in January and make it tight at the bottom.
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Trust me we are down !
People were asking others to trust them that we were down last season. And the season before that.
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Trust me we are down !
People were asking others to trust them that we were down last season. And the season before that.
Also there is around half a season left. Much stranger things have happened in the world than a football team winning, you know, football games.
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Yes we will get 40.
I think Vlaar and Baker will return at centre half with Clark and all of a sudden we won't look totally hopeless at the back. Lowton and Bennett will be able to get forward. Westwood and Bannan will both recover from the last couple of weeks and be freshers again, Gabby will come back and help us stretch the opposition a bit and there will be 3-4 signings. It won't be pretty, but I reckon we will get there.
Giving up on the 30th December because of 3 straight defeats is pointless and cowardly.
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Are babies have been thrown in, trying to run before they can walk, with no one older and reliable to help them.
How do you kick yourself out of a run like this without guys like Petrov to lead you? We've got tough fixtures on the horizon and the biggest problem too, is that every fixture now looks tough.
I think we'll seriously struggle to get close to 40. I do think the bottom 3 will likely all have 30-35 points, so we just have to hope it's enough. Our side is so weak though that I can see us taking a few more batterings too. Our goal difference might be what sends us down.
They are not babies , mostly men in their early 20s not in their teens, not kids as many suggest ,so should have a bit more mental strength than they have shown.
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Since this duplicates some of another thread where it all kicked off and got ugly I'll just repeat some facts I found by trawling through the premier league tables for last 20 years.
a) AVERAGE points required to avoid survival is 37.4 in 20 team premier league
b) Getting 40 points will give survival in 16 out of 18 seasons where there have been 20 teams (ie 90% chance of survival)
c) Lowest ever points to survive was 34.
Say 38 is target to have a better than evens chance of survival. Twenty more points from 18 games. 5 wins & 5 draws.
'Risen from the grave' stats :
2 best ever runs to achieve survival were West Ham in 2007 and Portsmouth in 2006, with if I recall correctly 21 pts from last 9 games and 20 from last 11 games. Baggies had 13 points in last 10 but were also bottom at Xmas (only time ever done).
I still think QPR and Reading are down, but I also wouldnt be suprised if Redknapp conjures up something in the transfer window to get them moving. To be honest I'm starting to see it as a straight shoot-out between us and Southampton.
Oh and last games of season ; home to Chelsea then away to Wigan. Who gets thrown into the air on 19th May by grateful fans at the DW stadium ?
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We may stay up we go down down this season.
All I know for sure is if you knock round in the bottom half for long enough season after season, it will get you in the end.
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Well I'm not giving up, I'm not accepting relegation without a fight, I'm sure Lambert and the team won't either
I don't know which games the points will come from,
against Wigan I expected some and didn't get any, against Liverpool expected nothing and ended up with 3
We have had all the stuffing knocked out of us by Chelsea, but we have to believe we can regroup, we cannot give in
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Well I'm not giving up, I'm not accepting relegation without a fight, I'm sure Lambert and the team won't either
I don't know which games the points will come from,
against Wigan I expected some and didn't get any, against Liverpool expected nothing and ended up with 3
We have had all the stuffing knocked out of us by Chelsea, but we have to believe we can regroup, we cannot give in
Win or lose, stay up or go down most of us will stick with them john e - Never given up yet!
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In Lambert We Trust.
we dont
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In Lambert We Trust.
we dont
you dont
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no chance unless the teams below us keep losing,does pl relise the reason these players were in a lower division is they are not good enough for the prem.
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no chance unless the teams below us keep losing,does pl relise the reason these players were in a lower division is they are not good enough for the prem.
Well i dont fancy the teams below us picking up much in January and as long as we beat southampton be okay!!
QPR next few games are Liverppol which I think they lose Chelsea which I think they lose and Spurs which I think they lose. West Ham at Home maybe something then man city home nothing there.
Reading
Spurs away lose
West brom home lose
Newcastle away lose
Chelsea home lose
Southampton
Arsenal lose
Chelsea lose
VILLA !
Everton lose
Man Utd lose
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I fancy ten points and a semi-final with the 4th round booked.
A shock win against Swansea, a good win againat Southampton and the Albion with a frustrating draw against Newcastle.
Three points from our two games in February, leaving us with on trophy and three more wins to find.
Fucking c'mon you Villa boys!
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QPR and Reading are down imo.
Southampton aren't, are playing well and have a goal threat in Lambert.
I think it will be the usual of 35-36 teams the 3rd team would go down on.
What is a big problem this time is our pathetic goal difference and that's not really going to change for the better.
Last season it really saved us as we went into the last game 3 points clear of Bolton but had about a 12 goals better difference. Boot on the other foot this season really.
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I fancy ten points and a semi-final with the 4th round booked.
A shock win against Swansea, a good win againat Southampton and the Albion with a frustrating draw against Newcastle.
Three points from our two games in February, leaving us with on trophy and three more wins to find.
Fucking c'mon you Villa boys!
Like it!
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no chance unless the teams below us keep losing,does pl relise the reason these players were in a lower division is they are not good enough for the prem.
The reason why those players were in a lower division is that they are relatively at the start of their careers. We have tried to pick them up early and develop them. It may come as a surprise but not all young players start with PL clubs. In fact, the opposite is true.
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Of the remaining 18 games we have:
Southampton (H), QPR (H), Reading (A), Fulham (H), S'Land (H), Newcastle (H) Wigan (A).
Those are the teams who are / may be in a relegation fight with us. West Ham & Norwich maybe? They are the 'must win' games IMO but as we have been stuffed already by S'hampton ans Wigan and limped to a win over Reading it ain't going to be easy!!
I think 40 points will be difficult to get...................
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I reckon 35 points will be enough this year maybe even less, I mean QPR and reading wont hit 30
So it could end up being really low
Not that I think we should be taking the risk, just saying
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Having gone through our remaining fixtures I am now much more hopeful.
I actually think we ought to be aiming for six wins from: Southampton (h) Newcastle (h) West Ham (h) Fulham (h) Sunderland (h) QPR (h) Reading (a) Norwich (a) Wigan (a).
Surely we can bank on a few draws too from: WBA (a) Swansea (a) Stoke (a) Liverpool (h).
It is doable but we have to start getting the points on the board now. I don't fancy going to Wigan on the last day of the season needing a win to stay up.
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We do have some easy home games left.
Easy if you'd have looked at them after the Liverpool game, anyway.
We can definitely stay up. I'm not even that worried. 37/38 points will be enough.
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Get some experience players baclm(vlaar,gabby,Bent etc) and sign a couple of quality players in January and I think we will just about stay up,if not then we are in big trouble,but I won't give up until its certain.
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People are saying QPR may do something if Harry sorts it out, and at the same time suggesting that us getting five wins is unachievable. Well if it's unachiveable for us, QPR have to get 8 wins nearly half their remaining games. Newcastle could be the suprise team at the bottom, dropping like a stone and losing their goal scorer. People should have faith, it's only a couple of weeks since we were on a six match unbeaten run.
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QPR don't matter imo.
Southampton very much do.
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We will reach 40 points by October when we trounce Bristol City...ah balls !!!
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Fulham and Newcastle are in the mix, maybe West Ham and Norwich too.
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Fulham certainly as they can't even win at home now and Sidwell is a regular in their midfield. Newcastle have enough goals in their team to be o.k.
There will be one team who'll drop from mid table, pretty sure at the end of January last season we had 28 points and were comfortably mid table.
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Full credit for the optimism folks, but who do you honestly see us beating? Unless PL does some very shrewd business in Jan I can't see us getting 30 points let alone 40.
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In 2012 (calender year)
Aston Villa-
Played 39 games
Points. 33
Goal difference -38
Very worrying, Wigan have 46points ffs.
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no chance unless the teams below us keep losing,does pl relise the reason these players were in a lower division is they are not good enough for the prem.
There is a reason why the teams below us are below us.
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Newcastle have enough goals in their team to be o.k.
They have just scored three agains Man U and Arsenal, but prior to that they only scored 6 in 10 games. They've lost 9 out of the last 12. They are only two points ahead of us so definitely in the mix
Full credit for the optimism folks, but who do you honestly see us beating?
Hopefully we can stop the rot against Swansea, then we've got two winnable cup games and possibly a new signing or two on the way. If the confidence can be rebuilt we can win some of our remaining home games and do enough to survive. If it can't be rebuilt, we're down.
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no chance unless the teams below us keep losing,does pl relise the reason these players were in a lower division is they are not good enough for the prem.
There is a reason why the teams below us are below us.
And they're about to sign two French internationals.
Granted, they're losing Ba, but they're still far better than us.
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we will get 36 . Will it be enough? I dont know
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Remember, we have 2 reserve players as our centre halfs, remember when Man United had to do that they struggled, Fergie always said you can throw a youngster in anywhere apart from central defence.
Vlaar and Dunne back or new signings would improve us massively.
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When Man United had reserves at centre half, we won at Old Trafford.
If we can get a point tomorrow, first goal to be us will be key (get that and we can win the dqmn thing), then Bob is right. Two winnable cup games to boost confidence, Vlaar back, one or two new faces in the defence/midfield and everybody has a lift.
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when is Vlaar back? His legs dont seem like concrete no more , mind he had injuries in Holland I remember .
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His injuries in Holland were the serious Laursen kind.
Seems like he has a couple of niggles in his calf and shin. I would hope he was back for Southampton and would jab him up to play if not.
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when is Vlaar back? His legs dont seem like concrete no more , mind he had injuries in Holland I remember .
He's never been concrete. It was just a silly nickname thought up by deluded fans. He's cost us a number of goals this season. Saying that he's still better than the centrebacks in the team at the moment and we could do with him back. I'd like to see Dunne back, but I can't see that happening. He's probably been told to find another club who'll be willing to pay him PL wages.
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If we can get Vlaar & Dunne back I'd put Clark in midfield, not the best option but he's played there before, need a bit of grit in the middle and Herd isn't the answer
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If we can get Vlaar & Dunne back I'd put Clark in midfield, not the best option but he's played there before, need a bit of grit in the middle and Herd isn't the answer
Clark is a better Centre half, but Herd is a better midfielder, but they are both not good enough in any position.
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I don't think we'll need 40 to stay up but can we accrue the number we will need? - I'd say 36-37 will be the cut-off point.
Let's go buy Lambert from Southampton for a start. Then, McCarthy from Wigwam. Finally, go and purchase Riise from Fulham. That should strengthen us and weaken some key rivals.
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I don't think we'll need 40 to stay up but can we accrue the number we will need? - I'd say 36-37 will be the cut-off point.
Let's go buy Lambert from Southampton for a start. Then, McCarthy from Wigwam. Finally, go and purchase Riise from Fulham. That should strengthen us and weaken some key rivals.
Good plan actually. Best ideas I've seen in a while.
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Just done the BBC predictor and had us finishing 17th on 35 points.
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Full credit for the optimism folks, but who do you honestly see us beating? Unless PL does some very shrewd business in Jan I can't see us getting 30 points let alone 40.
couldnt see us beating Liverpool, but we gave them a good hiding
thats the bueaty of football its not an exact science, its unpredictable
so instead of taking the last 3 games results and predicting we cant win another game, just take the previous 6 games before that and things look a bit rosier
i dont know where we will get the points we need from, but i'm not giving up that we cant get them
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I think it will be a lot lower than 40 points this season.
Everyone always goes on about the quality in this league. But I don't really think there's a massive difference in class from about 7th place down towards the top 6/7 in the Championship.
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Just done the BBC predictor and had us finishing 17th on 35 points.
Id take that now