Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: adrenachrome on February 23, 2011, 01:55:29 PM
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An interesting analysis which takes the view that our current form should see us safe from the drop.
Brtfair (http://betting.betfair.com/football/premiership/premier-league-signs-not-good-for-blackpool-wba-and-wigan-220211.html)
Premier League: Signs not good for Blackpool, WBA and Wigan
Not everybody is looking forward to spring... Andrew Clarke assesses the relegation markets and explains why a close look at the fixtures lists should inform your betting on battle to avoid the drop.
One of the most interesting markets in this most unpredictable of Premier League seasons has to be that of relegation. Traditionally the number of points needed to avoid the drop has been set at 40 but no club has needed that many since 2002/3 when West Ham went down with 42. But the signs are that this term the tally will be on the up again, mainly because no side is already doomed.
No side in the bottom half of the table is safe yet, but at this time of year momentum is key so recent form needs to be looked at. By that rationale Fulham and Aston Villa in 12th and 15th respectively can be discounted, having both picked up nine points in their last six games, a total only five teams have bettered over that period, all of whom are in the top six. Blackburn Rovers in 11th haven't been near the bottom yet and that doesn't look likely to change; Everton in 13th have never been relegated from the top flight and despite being just three points above the drop zone they have fared relatively well recently.
That leaves Birmingham City, Blackpool, West Bromwich Albion, Wigan Athletic, West Ham United and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Blackpool are sinking like a stone, although last time out they halted a run of five consecutive defeats by picking up a point at home against Villa. Five of their remaining 12 games are against top five teams and a May schedule of Tottenham Hotspur away, Bolton Wanderers at home and then Manchester United away is tough. Even more telling perhaps is that they only have two encounters with the fellow relegation contenders as outlined here so 2.36 is a very tempting price.
Birmingham are heading in the opposite direction, with eight points in their last six outings. Alex McCleish's men are at Wembley for the Carling Cup final this weekend but after that two of their next three fixtures are home to West Brom and away to Wigan and good results there would see them surge away from trouble. That's exactly what most people expect, according to the odds, and there's very little point in backing them at 5.9 or laying at 6.0.
Midlands rivals West Brom dispensed with Roberto DiMatteo after just three league wins in 16 matches. It remains to be seen what effect Roy Hodgson's appointment will have but a snatched point at home to Wolves on Sunday wasn't a great start especially as it followed the surrender of a 3-0 lead against West Ham in their previous game. The situation is desperate at the Hawthorns and 2.48 to go down is surely too good to miss.
Wolves are bottom and only Blackpool have worse recent form but there is hope for Mick McCarthy's side. Wins over Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea have proved they are capable of big performances and on paper have the easiest run in. They only face one top six team and home games against Blackpool and West Brom will be crucial. Odds of 2.02 for the drop seems fair.
West Ham have been in the bottom three all season save for a couple of days at the end of 2010 and according to the odds are nailed on for the drop at 1.58. Manager Avram Grant's been down amongst the dead men for even longer after his tenure at Portsmouth and they still have to play Manchester United, Manchester City, Spurs, Chelsea and Liverpool but the Israeli has made a habit of springing surprises and something tells me they could be worth laying at 1.64.
The Hammers travel to Wigan on the penultimate weekend for a game that both clubs will be hoping still matters by the time it comes around. With just one win in their last six, the Latics now face Manchester United, Manchester City, Spurs and Chelsea in their next five. By mid-April they could have one foot in the grave and at 1.64 are currently second favourites to be playing championship football come August.
Recommended bets: Back Blackpool and West Brom to go down at 2.36 and 2.38, and lay West Ham at 1.64.
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An interesting analysis which takes the view that our current form should see us safe from the drop.
Brtfair (http://betting.betfair.com/football/premiership/premier-league-signs-not-good-for-blackpool-wba-and-wigan-220211.html)
Premier League: Signs not good for Blackpool, WBA and Wigan
Blackpool are sinking like a stone
They just picked up a great 3-1 home win against Tottingham last night that would cause me to ejaculate if Villa had mirrored the achievement.
I think The Tangerine's will stay up due to their general attacking game teams like Tottenham aren't used to fighting against, much to their credit. I reckon that Wolves, Wigan, and West Ham will go down however, as I believe Woy will be good enough to keep the baggies up, and also that Blues have had a far too impressive season at times to go down.
Can't wait to see the back of them either.
It is also very much worth mentioning I believe we should pick up Matt Jarvis to do the "Ireland" role that Stephen himself is so utterly shite at doing; and Hugo Rodellega to help out in hitting the back of the onion sack should my predictions be correct.
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We're still dangerously in the mix, we keep being told how good our players are, now they've got to start performing and proving it. The defence in particular.
Blackburn won't be as easy as the FA cup game.
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...momentum is key so recent form needs to be looked at. By that rationale Fulham and Aston Villa in 12th and 15th respectively can be discounted, having both picked up nine points in their last six games, a total only five teams have bettered over that period, all of whom are in the top six.
This is the key; even if we're not doing as well as we would like it is still better than the teams we are competing with.
if we carry on in a similar way for the rest of the season then we'll be fine.
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It's very rare I wish a season was over, but I can't ait for a clean fresh start.
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Will feel a whole lot better if we can pick up six points from the next three games as we should do but we really are right in it.
Given how close the bottom of the table has been all season, it would be no surprise if there were no more than half a dozen points between the bottom 8-10 by the end of the season and it would take an upturn in form and results for us not to be one of those. There's a few tense weekends to come.
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I'd say four points from the next three games is probably more likely -and would actually be quite healthy, based on the season to date.
Less than that would be iffy.
If we were to lose the next three, I think it would be time for RL to take Gerard for a walk around the flowerbeds.
Reckon we'll be OK though. We'll be mathematically involved until the end of the season, but an average of a win a month between now and the end of the campaign and scratching out a few draws shouldn't be beyond us. We'll then face some tough decisions in the summer.
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will 40 points mean saftey this season ?
or will it take more as all teams seem to be able to pick up points against the odds from time to time
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There was a works charity predictor thing going on at work, which listed the remaining fixtures of Wolves, West Brom, Wigan, West Ham and Blackpool. Idea was to predict results and beat someone elses predictions. Beside the point anyway. Wolves have a pretty decent looking run in. The highest placed team they have left to play is Spurs, at home.
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Everton have been relegated, in the 60s I think. My major concern is our last two games... Arsenal and Liverpool. We need to put a run together to ensure we are at least 5 points clear of the drop going in to those games, that should be enough. This season is mad though, every time I think a team is doomed they get a ridiculous result... Wolves beating Man U and Blackpool beating Spurs being good examples. I reckon West Ham will somehow escape and it will be Baggies, Wolves and Wigan for the drop.
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I'm still not convinced as we do have a few tough games, but if the bookies are saying we are ok why should I disagree!
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will 40 points mean saftey this season ?
or will it take more as all teams seem to be able to pick up points against the odds from time to time
If I remember correctly (and I may not be, and can't be arsed to check up) it was a season like this, where the top lot disappeared from view and the rest of us shuffled about uncomfortably in a close race for ultimate crapness, that West Ham got relegated with 42 points.
Ouch.
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It was 2002/2003. The top were off with the fairies as usual and West Brom (26 points) and Sunderland (19 points and a magnificent -44 goal difference) were so shit that everyone else was clustered together, allowing West Ham to drop with 42.
And thank you Marcus Allback.
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My mates an Albion fan and he is convinced their run in will fuck it up for them. Wolves have a decent run in and I don't think ours is too bad but we must win our home games especially against the Dog heads
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Everton have been relegated, in the 60s I think. My major concern is our last two games... Arsenal and Liverpool. We need to put a run together to ensure we are at least 5 points clear of the drop going in to those games, that should be enough. This season is mad though, every time I think a team is doomed they get a ridiculous result... Wolves beating Man U and Blackpool beating Spurs being good examples. I reckon West Ham will somehow escape and it will be Baggies, Wolves and Wigan for the drop.
Pedant alert!. Since WW2, Everton have only been out of the top flight for three seasons, 51/2, 52/3 and 53/4.
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So I was right, they have been relegated. I got the decade wrong though.
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Of all the teams involved the only one I'd put money on to drop would be Wigan, we really need to beat Blackburn and then we can breathe a little easier, they all seem to be picking up unlikely points and I reckon it will be close till the last game , hopefully we will be away from danger before then but it really is so tight down there.
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My mates an Albion fan and he is convinced their run in will fuck it up for them. Wolves have a decent run in and I don't think ours is too bad but we must win our home games especially against the Dog heads
Wolves have the issue that they raise their game against the better teams, but then look shite against the mediocre ones.
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The current form/momentum thing is important and since our debacle at Eastlands wé've only lost to Sunderland with 10 men and Man Yoo away. Problem is too many draws means we havn't pulled away like we should have.
40 may just be enough. For 18th placed Wigan to get 39 they would need 3 wins and 3 draws from 11 games left, or 4 wins. That's more than the point per game they've managed so far. And they still have to play Man Yoo, Citeh, Spurs and Chelsea. I think I'm having a VillaDawg attack.
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My mates an Albion fan and he is convinced their run in will fuck it up for them. Wolves have a decent run in and I don't think ours is too bad but we must win our home games especially against the Dog heads
Wolves have the issue that they raise their game against the better teams, but then look shite against the mediocre ones.
Indeed. They're bottom of the "points gained against bottoom half teams" league, yet top 10 against the top half. We're almost the exact opposite, against the bottom half we're 6th, but against the top half we're 19th.
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We're all turning into VillaDawg!
By calculating our points-per-game, extrapalating our current form, and re-perambulating our run-in based on successful passes in the attacking quadrant vs triumphant tackles in the defensive zone, I reckon we should finish on 42.4 points, which should be enough to stay up by Pi points.
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No worries everyone - we are in 8th place in the current form league :)
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No worries everyone - we are in 8th place in the current form league :)
if we get up to fourth, do we get into the current form champions' league?
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Yes.
Can't wait to get knocked out by Rapid Vienna in the Current Form Champions League Play-Offs.
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We won't go down. We won't.
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we are one game away from a crisis, win on saturday and we are miles away, draw and we are nervous, lose and the dark clouds of insecurity will envelpoe us
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Just about sums it up hawkeye- saturday will be a massive gAme for us , let's hope for a west he home like display rather than what we produced against Sunderland- we have many games against teams around us and we need to start winning rather than drawing.
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I keep waiting to see these 'quality' players people keep banging on about to kick into action (who is quality may i ask? Ashley Young? Do me a favour.) We've got a very average squad who overperformed under O'Neill by playing the simplest form of football, if we persist trying to pass it about we'll stay in trouble because these players can't do it. It smacks of Mowbray at Albion, being stubborn and persisting with passing football even though you aren't winning and despite the players being shit.
As for pointing to our 'easy' run in, we lost at home to Sunderland, and drew with Fulham and Blackpool, i bet a lot of people had us down for 3 wins or at least 2 wins and a draw from them. Our last 3 games worry me aswell, we never beat Wigan at home and we'll lose to Arsenal and Liverpool so we need to be safe before those imo.
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I was updating my diary this morning and putting the Villa fixtures in
Had this horrible premonition come over me that the Stoke home game is going to be pivotal as I was writing it in
Like BCV, I am somewhat troubled by who our quality players are. Or at least, whether we have many more of them than a lot of other teams kicking around near the bottom
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I think a win would lift us 4 places tomorrow but defeat would be a disaster , this really is a huge game and I'm praying we deliver the win, the longer it goes the more nervy things get and I really hope we can start getting wins sooner than later, an early goal would be nice but I fear it could be a nervy afternoon .
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It has always been a bit of a myth that is important to win your home games. It isn't sides that go down invariably are the ones with the worst away records. most fo the teams that go down, and those in the places just above them, have roughly comparable home records.
What is stilla worry for us is our absolutely abysmal form on the road. A couple of wins and we should pull free quite comfortably. But if we continue to be turned over as has been seen -thankfully not recently - all too often and all too embarrassingly easily then we will be looking over our shoulders until May.
Poor position to have gotten ourselves into, lessons hopefully learned, let's just get this season over and done with and move on to 2011-12.
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I can't believe the title "The dreaded drop". I thought everyone loved getting relegated. I had the audacity to point out that most people I knew hated going down only to be "corrected". I'd have thought with some of the posts in another thread that people would be starting to get excited about the prospect by now. ::)
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I won't start worrying until William Hague tells me we're safe.
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(http://i617.photobucket.com/albums/tt255/cdvillafan/potato.jpg)
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Lose tomorrow and for the first time I will be genuinely worried about the situation. Win, and I will be sure of a surge to mid table mediocrity.
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(http://i617.photobucket.com/albums/tt255/cdvillafan/potato.jpg)
He's looking better these days.
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Who bet on Blackburn to go down on here?
Comfortably the worst side I've seen at VP this season, other than us.
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Who bet on Blackburn to go down on here?
Comfortably the worst side I've seen at VP this season, other than us.
West Ham on opening day?
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Blackburn won't be as easy as the FA cup game.
Oh really?
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They were a lot better than West Ham.
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Who bet on Blackburn to go down on here?
Comfortably the worst side I've seen at VP this season, other than us.
West Ham on opening day?
I thought Blackburn were worse, comfortably so.
I could at least work out what West Ham were trying to do. Yesterday, I had no idea what Steve Kean thought he was doing. What was RSC doing up there on his own, about three miles away from a five man midfield, four of whom were hopeless, functional cloggers, and one was Gamst Pedersen who clearly didn't give a toss.
They were absolutely terrible. That Keith Andrews - the one who gave away the penalty - has looked like terrible every time I've seen him play for Blackburn.
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Who bet on Blackburn to go down on here?
Comfortably the worst side I've seen at VP this season, other than us.
Had a quick scan through the match thread on one of there sites (its a game I play quite reguarly if I can't sleep) and its worse than anything I can remember on here, its been the tightest relegation battle I can remember in years, usually atleast one team is cut adrift by now but not this season, just when I think thats it Wolves are gone now, they go and beat Utd, same with Westham, I've thought a couple of times thats it now they're gone and then they pull off a shock result, if I had to bet here and now on who's going to go then my money would be on Westham, Blackburn and Blackpool
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Blackpool look doomed to me. West Ham have some really tough games and Wolves the easier run in on paper, but Wolves seems more suited to playing the top 4 than the scrappers. Blues have games in hand, but if Johnson is out, Davies is not a replacement on a consistent basis. Think 42 points might be needed to survive. We are 9 points away.