Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: pauliewalnuts on February 02, 2011, 10:29:24 PM
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There are currently 12 points between 8th and 20th, which is truly remarkable. After tonight's results, looking at the table, and at recent events, clubs like Newcastle, Blackburn, Stoke are getting dragged right into it. I don't even think Wigan or Wolves, the bottom two, are anything like relegated yet.
Here are the current odds for relegation from bet365.
Wigan 4/11
Wolves 4/9
West Ham 5/6
Albion 11/5
Blackpool 9/4
Blues 11/4
Fulham 7/1
Newcastle 8/1
Villa 20/1
Blackburn 25/1
Everton 25/1
Stoke 25/1
Bolton 50/1
It looks as if some clubs are actively trying to get relegated. Who do you fancy from that list as a decent outside bet to go down?
With Carroll gone, Ameobi now out, and Leon Best and Lovenkrands relied upon to get the goals, Newcastle look like a pretty decent return for me. Paddy Power have them at 16s, which looks very tempting.
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Blackburn 25/1 looks a very good bet.
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Why are Everton longer than us?
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The Tangerine Dream will become the Tangerine Nightmare.
Shame as in spite of Echo I want them to stay up.
That said Everton or Newcastle might be surprise winners.
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Why are Everton longer than us?
that's what I was wondering
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Blackpool are, if not falling like a stone, certainly no longer picking up the points. Their home record is also shocking. Been found out? Fatigue? Who cares!
(So that's guaranteed them a home win next time out...)
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Why are Everton longer than us?
that's what I was wondering
One point behind us, but a game in hand. Similarly performing teams. Makes sense.
Also, remember, these odds don't really reflect the current table necessarily, they reflect the bookies minimising their risk on the market. A couple of weeks ago there would have been more money on us and hardly anything on Everton.
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It'll be Wolves, Wigan and Blackpool for me. Blues and Albion will have to be very careful though. I think West Ham will have enough to stay up comfortably now they have Keane. He'll bang in 6 or 7 very important goals before the season is finished.
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David Pleat pointed out that Blackpool have a large number of home games, as their donkey-infested eyesore of a ground was still a diddakoi camp until the end of September
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David Pleat pointed out that Blackpool have a large number of home games, as their donkey-infested eyesore of a ground was still a diddakoi camp until the end of September
Although, only 11 points from 30 at home so far.
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Every time I think I have an idea it all changes again and I don't think any of the bottom 3 places are nailed on at the moment. Usually by now teams are starting to get detached but with only 10 points covering 12 clubs it's still very open.
I'l make a guess at Wolves, Wigan and Blackpool but could be wrong on all 3.
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Any team that shines a Marlon Harewood-shaped searchlight into the sky to summon a superhero is in deep shit. I am looking forward to a series of increasingly paranoid and defensive post-match interviews from Holloway
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It seems to me that when you are struggling, home games are harder because you are under more pressure.
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I wanted Blackpool to stay up prior to Holloway's gobbing off about a "half arsed club who used to be famous"
Petty it may be, but fuck it, petty bitterness is what football is all about, so i hope they go down.
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Wolves, Blackpool and West Brom for me, with Newcastle on the line at the end. Wigan are starting to fight, and have match winners. Blackpool are in free fall. Newcastle have had their heart ripped out twice by Ashley this season and will struggle. Blues, Everton, Villa all got too much. In fact I would bet Blues will be about 12th and us 10th-8th by May.
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Wigan, Wolves and West Brom for me.
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Newcastle - Can't see where the goals will come from. You need a bloke to put the ball in the net, like er.....Bent! But it's Wolves, Wigan West Brom and or West Ham in down there too. Last game of the season to decide methinks...
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I've not changed my mind from when we did this a month or so ago, Wigan, Wolves & West Ham
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Head says Wigan, Wolves, West Brom
Heart says Blackpool, Newcastle and Blose!
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Newcastle. I think they'll really struggle for goals now.
When it comes to who I want to go, I'm really spoilt for choice this year:
Blues and Albion - these pair go without saying.
Newcastle - deluded fans with the media up their arse as if its still 1995.
Wigan - Dave Whelan. I can not stand the man. They're a bit of a jokey club as well, should stick to their egg-chasing.
Blackpool - Holloway and his tedious rehearsed monologues.
Stoke - because I'm sick of them taking points off us. I don't particularly dislike them though.
Not bothered about Wolves or West Ham (I'm not fussed about Sullivan and Gold now they've left that shower down the road).
Would be a bit gutted to see Fulham or Everton go however.
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Newcastle. I think they'll really struggle for goals now.
Newcastle - deluded fans with the media up their arse as if its still 1995.
Wigan - Dave Whelan. I can not stand the man. They're a bit of a jokey club as well, should stick to their egg-chasing.
Newcastle are too many points ahead to be considered. I reckon 35 points will be enough to stay up and they have 30 already.
With Middlesbrough long since gone we need Wigan in the Prem to guarantee us 3 points away from home every year. The DW or whatever it's now called is our new Riverside. Plus the north west away days are the best, cheap tickets, as many as we like and loads of good boozers.
(Mind you, they keep beating us at Villa Park. Hmmm.)
Anyway, I am not sure it is a race per se ;) but I think it will be Wolves, Wigan and West Brom.
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you have got to worry If you get beat at home by West hm by 3-1
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Wolves are a goner I would think. And looking at the next 7 Prem Games, Wigan could be in deep deep trouble by then. Of the next 7 league games;
Wigan have to play Liverpool, Man Utd, Man City, Spurs & Chelsea
West Ham have to play Liverpool, Spurs, Man Utd
Blose have none of the top 6
Villa have none of the top 6
WBA have Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool
Blackpool have Spurs & Chelsea
After the next 7 games I sincerely hope we can be safe and well up the table.
Leaving Wolves, Stripey Filth, Wigan and Blackpool to scrap it out. Maybe Blose added just for good measure...
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Birmingham
Wigan
West Brom
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3 w's, between wolves (defo), and then 2 of wigan, west ham, or west brom, think west brom will avoid the drop. so process of elimination wolves, west ham and wigan.
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Stoke - because I'm sick of them taking points off us. I don't particularly dislike them though.
I fear there's more chance of us going down than Stoke
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The Scum
Wigan
Wolves
West ham will batter blues Sunday ........
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Oh I love this, the beauty of numbers
in the 15 years of a 20 team premier league, 17th has on average = 38.4 points
in those years 40 points has meant safety for all but 4 clubs (all back in 1990s when the points were less concentrated at the top)
in the last 5 years average 17th has dropped to 36.4 points, but this year I expect an increase to 38-39 points. For the team currently in 17th SHA that equates to 1 point per match.
If you then look at form (over last 6 games) and extrapolate to end of season you get the following result :
8 fulham 51
9 bburn 50
10 toon 48
11 villa 45
12 stoke 44
13 bolton 42
14 eeverton 41
15 west ham 41
16 sha 39
17 wolves 38
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18 baggies 36 boing
19 bpool 35
20 wigan 30
thats what the maths says, personally i reckon we will finish ahead of all of this lot chasing liverpool and sunderland.
As for those going down I think this maths is about right
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Blackpool and Newcastle will come close I reckon
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Wigan, Blackpool and Newcastle. Looking at the fixtures we could be in the top 10 on Saturday and I think it will be a 7th place finish just behind Liverpool.
We now Play none of the top 7 until our last 2 games of the season.!
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I think it will be
Blackpool
WBA
Wigan Athletic
I would like it to be
Wolves
Blackpool
Birmingham City
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wolves b-lose tesco-bags ;D
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Wolves, Wigan, Blackpool.
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Head - Wolves, West Brom & Wigan
Heart - Spurs to somehow be involved due to irregularities and points deduction.
I just want us to get 4 more wins, reach 40 points and then I can sleep better.
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Not sure who will go but it's going down to the last day I would think.
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Blackpool
West Ham
Wolves
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Hull had a much better start in 08/09 then Blackpool have made this season and only survived ont he last day. 9/4 is a sensible punt.
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Blackpool is tempting.
I think they'll join Wigan and Wolves for the drop.
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Blackpool is tempting.
I think they'll join Wigan and Wolves for the drop.
Holloway is the reason.
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Blackpool is tempting.
I think they'll join Wigan and Wolves for the drop.
Holloway is the reason.
He's the reason i'm hoping.
Pob look-a-like bastard.
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I wanted Blackpool to stay up prior to Holloway's gobbing off about a "half arsed club who used to be famous"
Petty it may be, but fuck it, petty bitterness is what football is all about, so i hope they go down.
Somewhat agree with this Paulie.
Everyone seemed to give Blackpool top respect for not only getting promotion but also starting the P'ship campaign refreshingly well. Then, old Gobbaway gets shirty about a couple of cheeky bids and suddenly they're revealed as small-time, snidey and actually not up to it.
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Got a feeling Newcastle will go down. After that I'm not sure, but guess Wigan look likely aswell. Think Keane will keep West Ham up and the shite will keep their heads above water and end up something like 16th. I'd like to see Blackpool go aswell, even though as a whole I have nothing against the club, but not until the final game so we can see Holloway's total mental breakdown on Sky. Make it even better if they go down due to a Charlie Adam own goal.
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At the start of the season I had a fiver on West Brom, Wigan & Blackpool all going down at 12/1, it's still looking quite promising.
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Who are the 3 jokers that said us?
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Incidentally, I wonder if PMK has started thinking "I hope we get relegated so that Houllier gets sacked". It was the next "logical" step in his thought process.
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I wanted Blackpool to stay up prior to Holloway's gobbing off about a "half arsed club who used to be famous"
Petty it may be, but fuck it, petty bitterness is what football is all about, so i hope they go down.
Somewhat agree with this Paulie.
Everyone seemed to give Blackpool top respect for not only getting promotion but also starting the P'ship campaign refreshingly well. Then, old Gobbaway gets shirty about a couple of cheeky bids and suddenly they're revealed as small-time, snidey and actually not up to it.
This is the way i feel aswell once that Holloway said what he did that was it for me.
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Wigan are down i think. Anyone out of Wolves, West Ham, Blose, Albion, Newcastle and Bpool to be the two that join them. I expect us to hit mid table now. Despite the loss, i thought we looked good against Manure
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Assuming Villa are safe then as long as one of them's Newcastle, I don't care who the other two are
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Still very tight down there.
Although there's not much quality down there, the best teams will escape I feel. I can see West Ham just getting out of it and likewise with Wigan who do have some good players. Newcastle appear that they'd have to go on a long losing streak to be in serious danger, Blackpool could be down there scrapping very soon, Blose just don't look like winning too often and draws might not be enoug for them, the Baggies could be dragged into the bottom 3 if they carry on playing poor and Wolves have got a hard uphill task now down at the bottom.
Hopefully we'll be well clear in the top 10 come May, but if I had to stick my neck out on the line to win a bit of money i'm going to go with... Wolves, Birmingham (generous odds) and Blackpool.
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20th Wolves, 19th Blackpool, 18th WBA. I'd prefer Newcastle to go down though instead of WBA. I like keep seeing them go another year without beating us and knowing it tears them up inside. Whereas Newcastle often do beat us, especially up there.
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Got to bring Newcastle into the running. There best player is now Barton. And he will probably go and do something stupid and get suspended, before long ......
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Just done that BBC predictor effort. We finished 8th with 53, Liverpool 54 and Sunderland 55. At the bottom though, I got it to Wigan bottom with 29, then West Brom on 31 and Newcastle on 37, with Wolves and Blackpool, and it coming to goal difference. Stranger things and all.
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I also think small heath could easily get dragged into it. Only 4 wins and 23 goals out of 23 games so far.
So my "dream drop" would be Blackpool, small heath and Newcastle. But i'll stick to my prediction above as the most likely.
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Got to bring Newcastle into the running. There best player is now Barton. And he will probably go and do something stupid and get suspended, before long ......
You don't think Newcastle will manage 6 points from the next 13 games? I am amazed people are putting them into this, they are not going to be in the bottom three as they have 30 points already, 6 points above the bottom 3 and the teams at the bottom are exceptionally rubbish. As I have said I reckon 35/36 points will be enough to stay up and I can't see the geordies not winning 2 games or winning one and drawing 3. It is possible, but highly unlikely.