Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: The Situation on December 28, 2010, 11:49:49 PM
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This is certainly not a thread for criticising Randy it's more of a question did he realise how much of a task he had on his hands when he took over as owner of Villa.
In no way am I trying to be patronising but as Randy is American do you think he took the view of "you can go from one of the worst teams to one of the best teams in a few years"? I'm sure he's observed that in American sports where we've seen the Boston Celtics go from one of the worst teams in the NBA in the 06/07 season to winning the NBA Championship the following season. I won't bore you with the details in how they did this, but basicially they brought in two veterans and aquired a good pick in the '06 draft. That's just one of many examples though... do you think Randy was naive in thinking it could be done as easy in the Premier League? Americans sports do operate differently compared to over here but I wonder if that any impact on Randy's "5 year plan" because he's witnessed what can be done with some clever management?
p.s. this isn't an angry backlash after what's gone on recently, I was wondering about this topic for some time now.
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I don't think he underestimated it. He knew exactly what he was getting into at that time. He, and everyone else, probably underestimated how much money would be thrown at it since 2006.
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I remember someone posting on here - maybe IanB - that they'd met Randy briefly after a match, and chatted to him. This was shortly after Ellis Short took over Sunderland. When said person asked him about the way he thought things were going, he said he was worried about Sunderland.
If he was worried about what Sunderland would do with extra money, I bet he hasn't slept a wink since Mansour took over.
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Obviously draft helps in US in levelling the playing field. PL and other major European leagues are big money biased and will remain so unless changes are made.
I think Randy gave up once he saw the Abu Dhabi money move in at Eastlands. No one can compete with that.
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Speaking of IanB where has the bugger gone lately?
Edit: 8888 posts - get in! Just like subtitles (with an extra fat lady)
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Speaking of IanB where has the bugger gone lately?
Don't ask, don't tell.
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Merson put forward a similar theory on Sky recently, but for me didn't take into account Randy's UK experience at Uni and in business times when he saw and watched plenty of football.
I don't think any one single factor is at fault, be there any fault as most of what I see now quoted as fact like Tsvets comment RL wILL not spend in Jan is just negative media speculation.
For me he's spent plenty and now wants it spent more wisely and by someone he can trust not to run away at the first sign of trouble.
His ideas on timscales are far away from the average fans.
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The problem is the NFL are franchise with no relegation, where you make a profit even if you lose every game, maybe he thought the PL was similar?
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The problem is the NFL are franchise with no relegation, where you make a profit even if you lose every game, maybe he thought the PL was similar?
Do you really think he would buy a football club without knowing how the most famous league in the world's biggest sport works?
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Speaking of IanB where has the bugger gone lately?
Don't ask, don't tell.
He joined the US military?
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The problem is the NFL are franchise with no relegation, where you make a profit even if you lose every game, maybe he thought the PL was similar?
Do you really think he would buy a football club without knowing how the most famous league in the world's biggest sport works?
Listening to the fucking idiots on WM yesterday you would be fooled into thinking exactly that
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It is more than possible that Mr Lerner underestimated the difficulty of breaking into the top 4 and winning Champions League football. It is something we have grown to accept, but if you think about it the idea of the biggest clubs recieving all the benefits to keep the playing field skewed, it is clearly ludicrous. The Americans like to maintain their idea of fair play, hence wage caps and the draft system. This means that you can take a small outfit and in a few seasons take them to the superbowl, or whatever. The only way that is possible in the Prem is by the spending of vast amounts of cash, and we all know that cash is becoming a much more precious commodity. My fear is that another 2 or 3 years without any tangible reward for his investment might make Mr Lerner see us as an unsustainable commodity, and where will we find an owner with the sympathetic and understanding outlook of the current regime? We might well end up being bought by the likes of the new Blackburn owners, and frankly I couldn't countenance giving my hard earned money to somebody who clearly has no idea what the beautiful game is about, or indeed the importance of our club within that history...
I fear for the future. I hope I am wrong.
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My single line of contact with Randy Lerner is second hand but very reliable. My younger son met him in a London restaurant where they were both dining and they chatted. The two things which my son came away with were that Randy is very aware of the magnitude of the commitment he must make in the Premiership and oddly that he thought Brad Friedel would make an excellent captain. My son rates him very highly and that is good enough for me.
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I don't think he underestimated the PL, but the Man City takeover has moved the goalposts a fair bit. I do think he overestimated O'Neill's ability to spend his money wisely.
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I don't think he underestimated the PL, but the Man City takeover has moved the goalposts a fair bit. I do think he overestimated O'Neill's ability to spend his money wisely.
Agreed.
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I don't think he underestimated the PL, but the Man City takeover has moved the goalposts a fair bit. I do think he overestimated O'Neill's ability to spend his money wisely.
What the hell do I know? - but these two points seem very likely.
The seismic shift created by the Citeh situation would have torpedoed a few business business plans around the premiership ... having said that, it's only one club, and at the moment we are watching the likes of Spppurrrs, Bolton and Sunderland speed past us in the fast lane (okay, maybe the middle lane; but faster than us). So, there's more to it than simply Citeh's bottomless pit.
The one challenge that Randy may have perhaps expected to address was the issue of attendance and revenue growth; and he really hasn't.
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I think man citys money has changed things and made the top 4 harder to reach than ever and noone could have predicted the financial Market collapsing as it has in the last two years- he had a real go at it for 4 yrs but maybe has realised the top 4 are beyond our reach financially and that could have led to o neill walking out.
Randy doesn't have a bottomless pit and maybe we now have to lower our expectations and settle for being a top 8 team rather than top 4.
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I'd snap your hand off to be a top 8 team at the moment.
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Five years is a long time in the Premier League. Randy had a decent go at it, spent a lot of money and backed his manager which is all we can really ask of an owner. So I don't think he underestimated anything as such (other than maybe O'Neill's spite) but he made a huge, catastrophic error in appointing Houllier, and I really think his head is spinning at the moment. He was happy enough when things were nicely ticking over, but now there's a crisis we need some leadership from him, which is something I don't think he does very well.
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I would like to ask about the role of the chief executive, Paul Faulkener. What are his credentials? Given the RL is largely an absent but not disinterested owner, day-to-day matters most be his task. Similarly he must have a big say in advising on strategy and plans.
I would think too that somekind of statement explaining the short-term aspirations would help.
Having had a few hours to get over the Man C result I still feel that Houlier is the wrong person for us and that Martin Jol would be a good replacement.
I would like to ask about the role of the chief executive, Paul Faulkener. What are his credentials? Given the RL is largely an absent but not disinterested owner, day-to-day matters most be his task. Similarly he must have a big say in advising on strategy and plans.
I would think too that somekind of statement explaining the short-term aspirations would help.
Having had a few hours to get over the Man C result I still feel that Houlier is the wrong person for us and that Martin Jol would be a good replacement.
I think we are in for another battering at Chelsea and the dissolutionment will be so much worse.
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The appointment of Houllier was a catastrophic error.
We knew when we walked back from St James Park to the station through the piss taking geordie throng that poor KM had blown his chance and that a safe pair of hands choice was inevitable - a ship steadier, a wise old head, a steady as she goes yesterday's man and that is exactly what we got.
What wants to make me weep is that Houllier has not acted like a wise elder statesman of the game. He has blundered from one gaffe to another all the time looking more foolish and apologetic. Making us wait for his signature, not letting the squad ease from high energy points effective play to is own preferred style of play, treating Pires as a landmark acquisition and letting him have a love in at the Arsenal, his own string of own goals at Anfield - those are just the examples which spring to mind.
If KM had behaved in such a naive and blundering way you would have said what do you expect from somebody with no experience. Houllier was appointed on the strength of his experience. His performance since the start of this season could form the text of the How Not To Do It football managers handbook.
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We get hammered by Man City 4-0 , they look like now adding Dzeko to their squad. If I was Randy , I would be giving in , which is sad but this is what footballs has now become. how can teams compete?
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I don't think Randy understimated it at all, we've been knocking on the door of the top four, the champions league is where the money is at. Randy has put his hand in his pocket and backed the manager, however he's right to call a halt to the silly wages, especially when players weren't getting a sniff of the game.
The game will change in the next few years if the Premier League hold their nerve and advance thse squad caps, ignore those who are happy to have players on their books just so other clubs can't have them and reintroduce some real competition throughout the game.
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We get hammered by Man City 4-0 , they look like now adding Dzeko to their squad. If I was Randy , I would be giving in , which is sad but this is what footballs has now become. how can teams compete?
Last week I read an article, in the Guardian I think, which reported that Man City had said they would only be "fine tuning" their squad in January, and then said they were going to spend 30m on Dzeko.
Now, I have no fucking idea what he's like, but I do know that when a club defines spending 30 million pounds on a single player as "fine tuning", something is very, very wrong with football finances.
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I don't think he underestimated the PL, but the Man City takeover has moved the goalposts a fair bit. I do think he overestimated O'Neill's ability to spend his money wisely.
You contradict yourself. The amount of money in the game now means that 6th place and a cup final is a reasonable return on Lerner's investment.
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I also dont think he underestimated it and the size of the job he took on when he brought us he had a five year plan and now things have changed i think he is starting to see how difficult the premier league can be.
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I also dont think he underestimated it and the size of the job he took on when he brought us he had a five year plan and now things have changed i think he is starting to see how difficult the premier league can be.
THERE WAS NO FIVE YEAR PLAN!!!
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I've been giving the situation at Villa Park some thought for quite some considerable time now, and I think we have to look to our recent history for the route of the problem and the solution.
Part of the problem is how Aston Villa are perceived outside of Villa Park . To the media we are no more than a mid table team at best, they continually rate Everton, Spurs and Newcastle as bigger than us. Now i'm pretty sure that our trophy list is bigger than Everton, Spurs, definately Newcastle and maybe even Chelsea. So part of the problem is perception. How are we ever going to attract top players or managers if we are perceived as being a slightly bigger version of Blackburn or Bolton?
Our next problem is chairman/owners. They are the route of all the problems at most clubs. Take a look at Newcastle for a good example of an owner playing god with the club. But it's our history that concerns me. Ron Saunders was easily the most successful manager of modern times but was undone by an owner who wanted to tinker with his contract. Now after just winning the first league championship in 71 years I can understand Mr Saunders annoyance. No wonder he told them to get stuffed. That brings us on nicely to Deadly Doug. Only Doug could have sacked the man who brought us the european cup,and replaced him with the manager of Shrewsbury Town (Graham Turner). No matter what your opinion of Tony Barton was, you don't replace him with Graham Turner. It's like Man Utd winning the champions league, then sacking Fergie and replacing him with Keith Hill from Rochdale. Obviously only a mad man would do that. Not content with the Graham Turner experiment he then inflicted Bingo Billy on us. Sure enough relagation followed and only then did he really see that to run a massive club like Villa you need a massive character, and not a yes man. So well done Doug for the appointment of Sir Graham Taylor. But then look at some of Doug's other appointments. Dr Josef Venglos - once again the Chairman's vanity nearly got us relagated, and once again we went looking for another manager. In stepped Big Fat Ron. It was a case of so near, yet so far. We played exhilarating football at times, but fell at the final hurdle. But Doug being Doug couldn't stand to be in the shadow of Big Fat Ron, so he had to go too. We then had a succession of managers, some more succesful than others, but all with the exception of O'Dreary couldn't or wouldn't work with Doug. Granted Doug then installed MON at the helm, but what promisses or assurances he made is anyone's guess.
So I guess what I'm trying to say is this: History shows us that to be a success at managing a massive club like Villa, you need a massive character, and in my opinion Houllier is not that man, and like many of his predecessors and the media he has been taken by suprise by the passion that the fans have for this club.
No one really knows why MON and Randy fell out, but one thing is for sure, Randy has most definately not learnt from history. If you have a succesful manager, you back him. If you can't work with him you must absolutely appoint a top manager. Someone hungry, someone with a proven track record. Not an old man! The Graham Taylor experiment(2nd time around proves this).
So what do we do now? I think it's too late this season to change. Big Sam imho is not the answer. I think we need to get our prayer mats out and come May time say thanks to Ged and appoint a new man no matter what division we are in. But, and I hope Randy learns from this experience, and that of our history, we are a massive club. We need a massive character. Not a yes man! Randy, please don't become another Doug. With the right backing and the right man at the helm we can mix it with the best. History proves it!
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I dont think he underestimated it but i think as soon as Man City arrived with their moneyhe knew the short term game was up. That's why he wouldnt give MON anymore money in the summer. I mean he couldnt have seriously expected MON to bring us further when selling our best player and not getting in th reinforcements he needed.
I believe Randy is still with Villa for the long run but recognises that we dont have the spending power at the moment to break the top 4. But the Premier League is in a complete bubble with all the debt...this could burst and when it does, maybe a gap will open up again in the top 4 and we may be poised to go for it.
It's only a theory but its either that or settle for eternal mid table mediocrity.
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settle for eternal mid table mediocrity.
I'd settle for it now!
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The problem is the NFL are franchise with no relegation, where you make a profit even if you lose every game, maybe he thought the PL was similar?
Do you really think he would buy a football club without knowing how the most famous league in the world's biggest sport works?
An American once bought the wrong London bridge! :)
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The problem is the NFL are franchise with no relegation, where you make a profit even if you lose every game, maybe he thought the PL was similar?
Do you really think he would buy a football club without knowing how the most famous league in the world's biggest sport works?
An American once bought the wrong London bridge! :)
Just like our defence that’s a fallacy
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I also dont think he underestimated it and the size of the job he took on when he brought us he had a five year plan and now things have changed i think he is starting to see how difficult the premier league can be.
THERE WAS NO FIVE YEAR PLAN!!!
According to The General there was, he mentioned it more than once.
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According to The General there was, he mentioned it more than once.
According to the full-time, executive board there wasn't, isn't and never has been.
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There never has been. It was a 'throw-away' comment made at the start of their tenure.
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According to The General there was, he mentioned it more than once.
According to the full-time, executive board there wasn't, isn't and never has been.
Richard Fitzgerald was a full time, executive director when he mentioned it.
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According to The General there was, he mentioned it more than once.
According to the full-time, executive board there wasn't, isn't and never has been.
Richard Fitzgerald was a full time, executive director when he mentioned it.
Who lasted another 30 seconds or so. It's been denied more times than a few, so why persist in believing it?
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Fitzgerald lasts another 12 months after making the statement. So the fact that our CEO at the time, and Lerner's right hand man have both mentioned it, I think it's fair to say that for a while at least, there was indeed a five year plan.
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Fitzgerald lasts another 12 months after making the statement. So the fact that our CEO at the time, and Lerner's right hand man have both mentioned it, I think it's fair to say that for a while at least, there was indeed a five year plan.
"In five years time we aim to compete in the Champions League" is hardly a five year plan. It's as Legion said, a throwaway line that was taken out of all context and no more a plan than a new manager saying what he intends to do by the end of the season.
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If we were in 4th spot at the moment rather than 3 points from the bottom I bet we'd be hearing all sorts about the culmination of the five year plan. They only stopped going on about it when it became apparent that it was never really going to happen.
"Do we dismiss our 5 year plan because we didn't win the Cup in Europe in year 1...do we lose faith that we can do what we have set out to do?"
The General has made lots of statements like the one above. He might not be an executive director, but he's Randy's right hand man, and I don't think he was making it up.
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One thing that did get talked about when Randy first arrived was the supposed five-year plan which would end in glory. Did this ever exist, or was it just a case of wishful thinking?
“I don’t know where it came from. We’ve never seen this as having a finite timeframe. We want success, as soon as possible, and we operate to plan ahead. You look at this year, next year, the year after. To a large extent we try to plan around the TV deals because that’s such a large amount of revenue. It’s hard to know what’s going to happen in three years when there’s a new TV deal due. You can’t have a plan as such because no-one can anticipate what’s going to happen with other clubs. We have to concentrate on Aston Villa, and grow our own business.”
Paul Faulkner, from his forthcoming H&V interview.
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"I don't know where it came from".
Try several mentions by the General on various sites over the years. Of course Faulkner is going to try to downplay it now, their whole strategy for the last 12 months has been to try to reduce expectations.
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Didn't the general also say something like there wasn't a rigid plan, but there was a hope as to what the team would do over several seasons? I almost certainly remember him saying there was no five year plan as it was perceived by some.
"We will support him with the resources to make the club better, stronger and more successful.”
Same source as the first. Believe it or don't, I'm past caring.
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Whether it was a vague idea of what they wanted to achieve, or written on ancient papyrus in Randy's own blood, is a bit irrelevant I suppose. Whatever it was, I don't imagine the current scenario is what they envisaged. I'm more interested to know what they plan to do to get us out of it.
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Whatever the plan was...
I'm sure Randy is looking at the likes of Bannan,Albrighton,Hogg,Herd,lichaj etc all performing in the prem for a fraction of the cost (in wages)of NRC petrov, heskeyetc
In the short term there is no point trying to out-do manc Citie in the spending stakes
so he will surely be looking to get the "Out column" to match the "In column" financially speaking
and plan longer term-financial fair play,homegrown player rules etc
no glory but long term stability
so it's looking like the doug years all over again!
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Whether it was a vague idea of what they wanted to achieve, or written on ancient papyrus in Randy's own blood, is a bit irrelevant I suppose. Whatever it was, I don't imagine the current scenario is what they envisaged. I'm more interested to know what they plan to do to get us out of it.
All will be revealed on January 26th, for the bargain price of £1.50.
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I've been giving the situation at Villa Park some thought for quite some considerable time now, and I think we have to look to our recent history for the route of the problem and the solution.
Part of the problem is how Aston Villa are perceived outside of Villa Park . To the media we are no more than a mid table team at best, they continually rate Everton, Spurs and Newcastle as bigger than us. Now i'm pretty sure that our trophy list is bigger than Everton, Spurs, definately Newcastle and maybe even Chelsea. So part of the problem is perception. How are we ever going to attract top players or managers if we are perceived as being a slightly bigger version of Blackburn or Bolton?
Our next problem is chairman/owners. They are the route of all the problems at most clubs. Take a look at Newcastle for a good example of an owner playing god with the club. But it's our history that concerns me. Ron Saunders was easily the most successful manager of modern times but was undone by an owner who wanted to tinker with his contract. Now after just winning the first league championship in 71 years I can understand Mr Saunders annoyance. No wonder he told them to get stuffed. That brings us on nicely to Deadly Doug. Only Doug could have sacked the man who brought us the european cup,and replaced him with the manager of Shrewsbury Town (Graham Turner). No matter what your opinion of Tony Barton was, you don't replace him with Graham Turner. It's like Man Utd winning the champions league, then sacking Fergie and replacing him with Keith Hill from Rochdale. Obviously only a mad man would do that. Not content with the Graham Turner experiment he then inflicted Bingo Billy on us. Sure enough relagation followed and only then did he really see that to run a massive club like Villa you need a massive character, and not a yes man. So well done Doug for the appointment of Sir Graham Taylor. But then look at some of Doug's other appointments. Dr Josef Venglos - once again the Chairman's vanity nearly got us relagated, and once again we went looking for another manager. In stepped Big Fat Ron. It was a case of so near, yet so far. We played exhilarating football at times, but fell at the final hurdle. But Doug being Doug couldn't stand to be in the shadow of Big Fat Ron, so he had to go too. We then had a succession of managers, some more succesful than others, but all with the exception of O'Dreary couldn't or wouldn't work with Doug. Granted Doug then installed MON at the helm, but what promisses or assurances he made is anyone's guess.
So I guess what I'm trying to say is this: History shows us that to be a success at managing a massive club like Villa, you need a massive character, and in my opinion Houllier is not that man, and like many of his predecessors and the media he has been taken by suprise by the passion that the fans have for this club.
No one really knows why MON and Randy fell out, but one thing is for sure, Randy has most definately not learnt from history. If you have a succesful manager, you back him. If you can't work with him you must absolutely appoint a top manager. Someone hungry, someone with a proven track record. Not an old man! The Graham Taylor experiment(2nd time around proves this).
So what do we do now? I think it's too late this season to change. Big Sam imho is not the answer. I think we need to get our prayer mats out and come May time say thanks to Ged and appoint a new man no matter what division we are in. But, and I hope Randy learns from this experience, and that of our history, we are a massive club. We need a massive character. Not a yes man! Randy, please don't become another Doug. With the right backing and the right man at the helm we can mix it with the best. History proves it!
what an excellent post!
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There may / may not have been a 5 year plan, but the accounts of Reform Acquisitions Ltd definitely show repayable loan notes kicking in in 2016.