Financial condition and constraints if we don’t go up.

[McGraths Dry Cleaning]

Financial constraints will be a big problem but don't we need someone with vision, drive, determination and a plan to get Villa back to the Premier league? I still don't see that at Villa....

[Dave P]

It will be a blow if we don't go up but not a disaster.  For every Pompey or Leeds there is a Fulham, Cardiff and Derby who have a few years out and can still mount a challenge.  If premier league money was needed to get promoted, then you would never get a Burnley, Watford, Bournemouth, Huddersfield or Brighton.

[paul_e]

I seem to recall in the last one he said that FFP wasn't a problem this season, but would be next.

Once you account for everything the prediction is that our turnover for next season will drop by something like £15-20m (about £10m in parachute payments and the rest in commerical revenue, ticket sales, etc).  The drop in wages from contracts ending and loans returning is probably 50-60% of that but at least some of those players will need to be replaced and not just with loans so we need to generate enough on top to make up the offset and give us a transfer pot.  Amavi's move being made permanent helps a little but we need to sell at least a couple more to get to a point where we can do everything we need to.  The problem is that the players we'd be happy to sell won't make us a profit.

McCormack, for example, would need to go for £6m for us to break even on his book value and no one will give us anything like that, so we either have to keep hold of him or sell him at a loss to free up wages.  The players we could make a decent profit on are Hourihane, Adomah, Chester and Grealish (and possibly Green and Davis) I don't really want to sell any of them but I'm not sure we'll have any other choice, unless we can get bits and pieces for people like Gardner, Lansbury and Bjarnason.

Of course, if the rules change, or we decide to ignore them like teams have in the past, then it might be a different story.

[Dave P]

The ironic thing is that, on just ability and not attitude, McCormack and Richards would walk into most Championship teams.  Allowing for loans not being renewed and salable assets going (i.e. absolute worse case), our team for next season could be:-

                      Steer

Bree   Elphick   Samba/Suliman   Taylor

Green   Lansbury  O'Hare  Thor

              Hogan   RHM

Not bad but a million miles from this season.  This also assumes that Chester, Grealish, Adomah, Hourihane, Kodjia and Elmo all go and this could raise £40m - £50m in any case (plus Wages inc Terry).

[paul_e]

I can't see Elmo or Kodjia going, I don't think the former will generate enough money to be worth it and the latter has barely played for a year, I can't imagine anyone taking the risk unless he scores 4-5 goals in the last month/play offs and if that happens we'll probably be promoted.

[Clark W Griswold]

As much as I like Hogan I'd sell him and I'd loan out Hepburn Murphy for the season, as well as giving Onomah back. Is Gabby ready for release yet? If we could get Grabban and Snodgrass permanently we would have an 'offensive team' of Kodjia, Grabban, Grealish, Davis, O Hare, Green, Snodgrass, Adomah. That should surely be enough.
Midfield i would sell Hourahane if we can get a reasonable amount for him and keep him if not. I'd get a loan player in if we sell him and we'd have the new player and Whelan, Thor and Jedi to pick from for 2 places. Defence wise I'd try to get Hutton back in, and I'd loan in a centre back and buy a centre back. I'd offload Samba. GK wise I'd hope to get Johnstone permanently or another season loan but if not we'd need to do a similar deal for someone else.

Oh, and sell Lansbury.

[wolfman999]

The ironic thing is that, on just ability and not attitude, McCormack and Richards would walk into most Championship teams.  Allowing for loans not being renewed and salable assets going (i.e. absolute worse case), our team for next season could be:-

                      Steer

Bree   Elphick   Samba/Suliman   Taylor

Green   Lansbury  O'Hare  Thor

              Hogan   RHM

Not bad but a million miles from this season.  This also assumes that Chester, Grealish, Adomah, Hourihane, Kodjia and Elmo all go and this could raise £40m - £50m in any case (plus Wages inc Terry).

A decent enough team there Dave but the biggest problem I see is that on past experiences, a good few of these would spend more time on the treatment table than on the pitch.

[cheltenhamlion]

Wyness was interesting about this tonight. It seems we are confident of forcing through a fudge allowing bigger losses so it won't be so bad if we stop down.

Can you expand on this?

Essentially, the initial loss calculations that were acceptable were based on an old TV deal where parachute payments were circa £10m. The idea being that losses were reflective of the massive overstretch you have on finance between the Premier League and The Championship.

Whilst the parachute payments might have gone up, so has the price of everything in football. So if you are subject to dropping under a different TV deal then it takes longer to stabilise and is it fair to make the same calculation? We say not.

To change it then 18 out of 24 in the league need to agree it (we have been leading the campaign). Apparently 17 agree it at the moment but they are back for another round of talks in a couple of weeks.

That is the gist of it anyway.

[ChicagoLion]

Not trying to shoot the messenger but I am a bit confused, the suggestion is that an individual league can over turn the UEFA FFP regulations?

[cheltenhamlion]

Not trying to shoot the messenger but I am a bit confused, the suggestion is that an individual league can over turn the UEFA FFP regulations?

I was confused as well.

[kippaxvilla2]

Is there just one form of FFP?

No. The Premier League has brought in its own form of financial regulation which is not as stringent as Uefa's FFP.

Clubs cannot make a loss in excess of £105m across the 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons (as with FFP, investment in infrastructure and youth development is exempt).

Any club that posts losses in excess of that figure could face severe penalties, including a points deduction.

A loss between £15m and £105m has to be guaranteed by club owners.

The league has also introduced a short-term cost control measure in which clubs are restricted in the amount of increased PL central funds that can be used to improve player wages.

The increase in wages from the fund was limited to £4m in 2013-14, £8m in 2014-15 and £12m in 2015-16 (wages can be increased from clubs' own commercial revenue).

Tony Fernandes, QPR owner
QPR owner Tony Fernandes says he will appeal against any FFP punishment imposed by the Football League
The measure applies only to clubs with a player wage bill in excess of £52m in 2013-14, £56m in 2014-15 and £60m in 2015-16.

Meanwhile, the Football League and its clubs have agreed on a FFP framework across all three of its divisions.

Championship clubs are permitted losses of £8m (£5m funded by shareholders) in 2013-14 (accounts must be submitted by 1 December).

They have to reduce them, season-on-season, to a maximum of £5m (£3m funded by shareholders) by 2015-16.

Clubs promoted back to the Premier League who exceed those losses are subject to a fine.

[ChicagoLion]

Is there just one form of FFP?

No. The Premier League has brought in its own form of financial regulation which is not as stringent as Uefa's FFP.

Clubs cannot make a loss in excess of £105m across the 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons (as with FFP, investment in infrastructure and youth development is exempt).

Any club that posts losses in excess of that figure could face severe penalties, including a points deduction.

A loss between £15m and £105m has to be guaranteed by club owners.

The league has also introduced a short-term cost control measure in which clubs are restricted in the amount of increased PL central funds that can be used to improve player wages.

The increase in wages from the fund was limited to £4m in 2013-14, £8m in 2014-15 and £12m in 2015-16 (wages can be increased from clubs' own commercial revenue).

Tony Fernandes, QPR owner
QPR owner Tony Fernandes says he will appeal against any FFP punishment imposed by the Football League
The measure applies only to clubs with a player wage bill in excess of £52m in 2013-14, £56m in 2014-15 and £60m in 2015-16.

Meanwhile, the Football League and its clubs have agreed on a FFP framework across all three of its divisions.

Championship clubs are permitted losses of £8m (£5m funded by shareholders) in 2013-14 (accounts must be submitted by 1 December).

They have to reduce them, season-on-season, to a maximum of £5m (£3m funded by shareholders) by 2015-16.

Clubs promoted back to the Premier League who exceed those losses are subject to a fine.

Now even more confused.

[andyh]

It will be a blow if we don't go up but not a disaster.  For every Pompey or Leeds there is a Fulham, Cardiff and Derby who have a few years out and can still mount a challenge.  If premier league money was needed to get promoted, then you would never get a Burnley, Watford, Bournemouth, Huddersfield or Brighton.

I think you make some excellent points.
There is common factor with all of those teams you mention (except Burnley).

It begs the question do you need money to get out of this division or a ‘progressive’ manager?
But thats a whole different thread.

[Stu]

It will be a blow if we don't go up but not a disaster.  For every Pompey or Leeds there is a Fulham, Cardiff and Derby who have a few years out and can still mount a challenge.  If premier league money was needed to get promoted, then you would never get a Burnley, Watford, Bournemouth, Huddersfield or Brighton.

I think you make some excellent points.
There is common factor with all of those teams you mention (except Burnley).

It begs the question do you need money to get out of this division or a ‘progressive’ manager?
But thats a whole different thread.

Interesting company we're keeping though, if that's the case.

Loads of people said it at the time; FFP was, and now is, a way of pulling up the drawbridge. Where would Manchester City be without their state-oil funded empire now that FFP is in place? Not much better off than us, I'm willing to bet. Smaller clubs going out of business is always sad but has always happened, throughout the history of the professional game. It only became an issue for European football when the people that ran the very richest clubs discovered a way to protect their revenue after the TV money hove into view.

[SirSteveUK]

Just to clarify the position on parachute payments / FFP:-

Parachute payments are unique to the English game and, currently, see relegated clubs receive a percentage of their final earnings** in the Premier League in the season in which they were relegated. These drop progressively over a three year period – 55% in the first year, 45% in year two and 20% in the final year.

Given that our earnings** from the PL were about 80-90 mill - that means a parachute payment of 16-18 mill.

On the FFP point - our losses for the previous 2 seasons and the current one ( with estimated accounts for this season as at March 2018) must not exceed 61 mill. This time next year  - without promotion - the limit would be 39 mill

**Earnings meaning Prize money, I believe