The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Nastylee]

If we have most of the top sides left to play at home then, by simple deduction we must've played an easier 'set' of home games than most other sides in the league.  On that basis should we have expected more than 7 wins from 13?  The flip side is that our away record, given who we've played, is very good and will hopefully improve but we definitely need to see improved home form at a time when we're playing better teams, if we want to get top 2.

One home defeat is good, though we could really have done with more than 7 wins and obviously fewer than 5 draws.

Oh I agree, that's the problem really, too many home draws against weaker sides who came for the draw and that we had no idea how to break down.

Which will ultimately decide our fate. Can't see us losing many but our lack of goals for stops us turning those tight games into wins. Too many draws will probably do our chances of 2nd.

[IFWaters]

Next 5 games in the next 4 weeks :

Barnsley h
Sheff Utd a
Burton h
Scum h
Fulham a

Should be 3 routine home wins and a couple of tricky away games. Im going for 13 points from this lot and us breathing down Derby's neck.

[MorrisNielson]

have we ever won 10 consecutive games?

I've only got as far as World War One but the best I've found is eleven straight wins in 1914.

Stoke (h) 1-0 (FA Cup)
Sunderland (h) 5-0
Everton (a) 4-1
Exeter (a) 2-1 (FA Cup)
WBA (h) 2-0
Wednesday (a) 3-2
WBA (h) 2-1 (FA Cup)
Bolton (h) 1-0
Chelsea (a) 3-0
Wednesday (a) 1-0 (FA Cup)
Man Utd (a) 6-0 (!)

Ended with a goalless home draw against Oldham. We went on to finish runners-up to Blackburn and lost in the Semi-Final of the cup to Liverpool.

Will look to see if I can find a better sequence tomorrow when I'm supposed to be working.

Highest number of league wins in a row, as far as I can see:
9 - 1910-11
9 - 1896-97 - 1897-98
8 - 1974-75
7 - 1989-90
7 - 1980-81
7 - 1930-31
7 - 1919-20
7 - 1913-14
7 - 1898-99

[The Moose]

Didn't Lambert set some consecutive game records......?

Oh wait...

[Drummond]

If we have most of the top sides left to play at home then, by simple deduction we must've played an easier 'set' of home games than most other sides in the league.  On that basis should we have expected more than 7 wins from 13?  The flip side is that our away record, given who we've played, is very good and will hopefully improve but we definitely need to see improved home form at a time when we're playing better teams, if we want to get top 2.

One home defeat is good, though we could really have done with more than 7 wins and obviously fewer than 5 draws.

Oh I agree, that's the problem really, too many home draws against weaker sides who came for the draw and that we had no idea how to break down.

Which will ultimately decide our fate. Can't see us losing many but our lack of goals for stops us turning those tight games into wins. Too many draws will probably do our chances of 2nd.

I think we're starting to look better offensively now though. Having had Kodjia and Grealish out really cost us but it's looking better now Grealish has returned.

[SirSteveUK]

League positions are not necessarily a good guide.

Ipswich are 6 places below Sheffield Utd - but they have joint 5th best Home records - and we play them both away.
At present:-

Our Away schedule is 5th toughest - Cardiff's is the toughest
Our Home schedule is 4th toughest - Derby's is 3rd toughest

[Ads]

Maybe they have the 5th best home records because they've not played us and the like at home, and that they are where they are because they're not as good as us.

[paul_e]

Maybe they have the 5th best home records because they've not played us and the like at home, and that they are where they are because they're not as good as us.

That's basically the point I was making earlier in reference to us.  On paper our home record is pretty good but when you look at the teams we haven't played at home yet it's hard to argue that's it's going to improve as the season progresses whereas our away record looks like it could improve because it's mostly mid-table and lower sides we've got to play.

[Ads]

I disagree, as I think we've certainly improved and looked stronger. Certain individuals are consistently looking their worth in Snodgrass, quality players like Terry and Grealish are returning and non-contributors like Hogan have suddenly looked different prospects.

The change in shape and the extra dynamism that has given us and the extra quality returning gives us an argument to say we should be in a better position to win more at home. Bristol is a case in point; decent side, easily dispatched, whereas against Boro we laboured.

I think in Sheffield United's case, their momentum from an excellent season has run dry and ordinary players have reverted to an ordinary level of performance.

[Hookeysmith]

I disagree, as I think we've certainly improved and looked stronger. Certain individuals are consistently looking their worth in Snodgrass, quality players like Terry and Grealish are returning and non-contributors like Hogan have suddenly looked different prospects.

The change in shape and the extra dynamism that has given us and the extra quality returning gives us an argument to say we should be in a better position to win more at home. Bristol is a case in point; decent side, easily dispatched, whereas against Boro we laboured.

I think in Sheffield United's case, their momentum from an excellent season has run dry and ordinary players have reverted to an ordinary level of performance.

Although they will be up for it when we play there - especially if we are still in form.
One of the issues with us is that we Aston Villa and even though we are where we are we are always a big scalp.

I see opposing players arrive at pitch side and to many of them it is a "f*ckin ell" moment when they walk out on the pitch - especially so for night games

[Ads]

I don't see why they'd be more up for us than Sheffield Wednesday. They've one 1 in 10 now and we ought to be beating them.

Their other Yorkshire cousins first mind require dispatching.

[paul_e]

Hookey - That moment is what we need to take advantage of better.  The lower/mid table teams are almost certainly going to be players who can be overawed by the ground, but if we let them settle and start to enjoy it they can take a lift from it, we need to show them they're playing with the big boys from the very start, that's where we've fucked up in the last 18 months, we haven't drummed home that potential advantage.

Ads, I'm referring entirely to making predictions based on form tables.  I agree that we look a much better side now than we did in August but I don't think the "all the big sides have to come to Villa park" argument really adds much because our home record so far doesn't suggest we're getting much of an advantage there, we lose less than we do away but we draw far too many.

[Clampy]

If we have most of the top sides left to play at home then, by simple deduction we must've played an easier 'set' of home games than most other sides in the league.  On that basis should we have expected more than 7 wins from 13?  The flip side is that our away record, given who we've played, is very good and will hopefully improve but we definitely need to see improved home form at a time when we're playing better teams, if we want to get top 2.

One home defeat is good, though we could really have done with more than 7 wins and obviously fewer than 5 draws.

Oh I agree, that's the problem really, too many home draws against weaker sides who came for the draw and that we had no idea how to break down.

Which will ultimately decide our fate. Can't see us losing many but our lack of goals for stops us turning those tight games into wins. Too many draws will probably do our chances of 2nd.

I think we're starting to look better offensively now though. Having had Kodjia and Grealish out really cost us but it's looking better now Grealish has returned.

Kodjia especially. We did well considering Davis was our only striker for a while.

[chrisw1]

So Derby have drawn.  I think mathematically promotion is now in our own hands?

[SoccerHQ]

Cracking result that.

Don't see Derby getting another 40 points on top of what they already have tbh.

LIke us they struggle to win home games when teams park the bus.