The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[PeterWithesShin]

Don't get me wrong I think he'll be more than decent for us once fit. Just that winning a medal can sometimes be misleading.

[Ads]

No argument here. He also benefits from being ABH, anybody but Hutton.

[martin o`who??]

We are not getting out of this division alive.

I just hate mindless optimism!!.....

[oldhill_avfc]

I'm not willing to entertain an argument that isn't one of the best squad's in the league.

I was asking a honest question on how the squad could be used to turn out a team capable of winning away and perhaps more convincingly at home.

From my point I view I think there are massive doubts in the squad, namely:
(1) lack of pace
(2) lack of creative supply to forwards
(3) inability for our best forward to form partnerships with the rest of the team
(4) lack of quality in wide midfield areas
(5) lack of quality in defensive midfield/reliance on jedinak
(6) lack of goals from so called creative/attacking midfielders
(7) debatable quality of full backs
( the need to play deep to accommodate the lack of pace from our marquee signing over the summer
(9) mental fragility when going behind
(10) lack of fitness to pressurise the opposition

ok some of the points can be addressed but that still leaves massive concerns.

(1) most of our goals last year seemed to be from counter attacks
(2) in Lansbury, Hourihane, Adomah, Grealish, Elmohamady, Onomah, etc we've got plenty of creativity
(3) well play to their strengths and they might (ie don't lump it up to a short, lone striker)
(4) see above re Adomah, Grealish and Elmohamady
(5) Whelan's just dropped out of a mid-table Prem team where he was a regular
(6) see (2) above - give them a role where they're allowed to get out of our half and they'll score plenty
(7) De Laet has a Premier League winners medal and Taylor got to the latter stages of the Euros
(8 ) We had the 4th best defence in the league last year - that's not our problem
(9) we've got a team of ex-captains - not an issue
(10) is it fitness or the result of a manager who's only tactic is to score a goal then try to defend it?

There's absolutely nothing wrong with this squad the right manager couldn't fix.

I don't particularly want to get into endlessly going over this, but the way I see it is that the the squad isn't balanced and struggles with any of the formations we could (try?) play.

4-2-3-1

The issue to date with this is with the 3 attacking midfielders.  We've added Onomah but does this give us enough goals?  For this system to work each of these three players needs to score 10-12 goals per season.  I'd say Grealish is potenitally capable. Onamah? A N Other eg Adomah - certainly isnt, Green - big ask.

4-4-2
The issue with this Kodija can't seem to link up with any of our other fowards.
We rely on Jedinak or Whelan to hold the centre - will that work?
Don't think Grealish fits in here.

4-3-3
Do we have a midfield 3 that can do this to allow (say) Grealish a free role to support 2 central strikers?


Like I said before - some issues can be addressed, and yes the squad has some good players, but as a unit I think there are lots of concerns and it's simplistic to say that a new manager could (easily) sort it out.

[Ad@m]

4-3-3 is the best bet given the squad we have:

                          Johnstone

De Laet       Terry       Chester        Taylor

      Lansbury    Whelan      Hourihane

Adomah                                        Grealish

                      Kodjia

Given the freedom to attack, that team would smash most teams in this division - before they joined Lansbury averaged a goal every 5 games with Forest and Hourihane a goal every 4 with Barnsley so both of those are capable of double-figures.

Plus there's plenty of other options to mix that team up with Hogan, Onomah, Jedinak, Elmohamady, etc.

It's honestly incredible that we're second bottom.

[oldhill_avfc]

4-3-3 is the best bet given the squad we have:

                          Johnstone

De Laet       Terry       Chester        Taylor

      Lansbury    Whelan      Hourihane

Adomah                                        Grealish

                      Kodjia

Given the freedom to attack, that team would smash most teams in this division - before they joined Lansbury averaged a goal every 5 games with Forest and Hourihane a goal every 4 with Barnsley so both of those are capable of double-figures.

Plus there's plenty of other options to mix that team up with Hogan, Onomah, Jedinak, Elmohamady, etc.

It's honestly incredible that we're second bottom.

I see what you're saying, but that team is very much the same as last year - and it didn't score enough goals.  Unless Whelan is a big step up from Jedinak then I don't see Hourihane and Lansbury doing anything attacking wise.

But, even if they did get their average of around 10 goals a season then when added to Kodija's expected 20, that still leaves the rest needing to contribute around 35 goals.

I think Grealish is potentially 10-12 goals a season but he's out for months.  So on average I#d say that position contributes say 8.  Adomah 5. 

Thats 22 from the rest.  I just can't see that happening.

[Ad@m]

I see what you're saying, but that team is very much the same as last year - and it didn't score enough goals.

I don't think the issue last year was the formation or the players - it was how they were asked to play.

We've seen that given the freedom to get forward both Lansbury and Hourihane will score and create goals.  And given we had one of the best defences in the league last year and have added a world class (in his day) centre half and a new defensive midfielder to that we shouldn't have any trouble at the back.

It all comes back to Bruce's eye-wateringly negative mentality.  And I just don't see that changing until he's gone.

[cheltenhamlion]

I see what you're saying, but that team is very much the same as last year - and it didn't score enough goals.

I don't think the issue last year was the formation or the players - it was how they were asked to play.

We've seen that given the freedom to get forward both Lansbury and Hourihane will score and create goals.  And given we had one of the best defences in the league last year and have added a world class (in his day) centre half and a new defensive midfielder to that we shouldn't have any trouble at the back.

It all comes back to Bruce's eye-wateringly negative mentality.  And I just don't see that changing until he's gone.

Yep

[IFWaters]

To be on target for the playoffs we need to average 1.6 points a game. Or 16 points from the first 10 matches. We have 1 from 3 matches. We need 15 points from the next 7 games...5 wins in 7. Already lookin grim in it ?

[Ads]

We need to win 6 out if the next 7.

Not looking likely, but it is still incredibly early in the season.

[footyskillz]

Can look at this thread with a renewed optimisticy .
A win against Bristol city would bring about a good 6/6 points haulage for week .

Have to say looked at early table and there are teams around lower echelon and not top 6 who were play off last year Fulham and reading so early days as table sorts it out.
Cardiff and Ipswich aren't there to stay at top but well played to them really like to think villa could get on top 5 places and at 16/1 each way 4 places taking some

[itbrvilla]

Edit: was trying to create a table to monitor progress against required points per game for playoffs and automatic promotion. Its a bit of a pain in the arse so wont bother.

After 4 games to be on track we need:

Automatic 4 x 2.04 = 8.16 points
Playoffs 4 x 1.78  = 7.12  points

After 5 games:

Automatic 5 x 2.04 = 10.2 points
Playoffs 5 x 1.78  = 8.9  points

2.04 average PPG for 94 total
1.78 average PPG for 82 total

[SoccerHQ]

We need to be on 20 points by end of September.

I'm optimistically looking for us to win 5 of our next 7 starting tonight.

We would be in the mix nicely if we can do that.

[Villa75]

We're 5 points down on where I thought we'd be after 5 games.

Win the next 5 on the trot and we'll be back on course. What's the odds on that happening?

[SoccerHQ]

Same for me. Thought we'd on around 10 points by now.

Going to be a big September for Steve Bruce.