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Author Topic: The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths  (Read 20046 times)

Offline IFWaters

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The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths
« on: July 28, 2017, 07:27:16 PM »
I know its been a while since those heady days our spring run of wins prompted me to place the maximum allowed bet on Villa (12!) on bet365 for Villa to get promoted at odds of 250-1. The collapse ensued and we ended up 18 points short with 62 in 13th place.

This year I have cranked the Wikipedia handle and looked back over 22 years of the 2 automatic places and 4 playoff spots targets and come up with the following targets :

Target 1 : to get into the playoffs. Whether you use an average based on the last 5, last 10 or all 22 seasons, the average to get into the playoffs is ...

74 points

Thats a tidy 1.6 points per game or 8 points from every 5 matches or in other words a ratio of 2 wins and 2 draws to every loss.
Another way of looking at it is 20 wins, 14 draws and 12 losses .... or .... turning 4 of our losses last season into victories

Target 2 : To guarantee playoffs ... 80 points - achieved only once in the last 22 years...last year...although in truth to finish 6th Fulham only needed 76 points.

Target 3, to guarantee automatic promotion, 87 points , average over the last 10 or all 22 seasons. Probably winning 24 or 25 games.

Offline old man villa fan

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Re: The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths
« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2017, 08:07:13 PM »
The key is winning games. It is better to risk losing a game by going for a win, rather than a succession of draws.

Offline SoccerHQ

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Re: The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths
« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2017, 08:07:31 PM »
We won 12 home games last season.

We could've easily won another three under RDM alone when you think back to those late goals (Huddersfield, Forest and Brentford) so say our home form remains strong (with most teams coming here happy to take a point so we're handed the initiative from kick off something like 15 home wins and 5 draws is 50 points.

Really it will come down to the away form, 3 away wins last year was embarrassing. We simply have to do better and quite a bit.

If we want automatic promotion we need a minimum of 10 away wins as with the draws that will get you to about 85 points.

Shows the scale of the task.

Offline Sexual Ealing

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Re: The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths
« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2017, 08:17:37 PM »
I had 5 to get promoted at 200/1 last winter. What a tool.

Offline brian green

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Re: The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths
« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2017, 08:39:36 PM »
I have had a 25-1 double.  Villa to be in the Premiership and Donald Trump to be out of office by next June.

Offline Sexual Ealing

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Re: The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths
« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2017, 08:48:50 PM »
I fear that Trump will be in the Premier League before we are, Brian.

Offline IFWaters

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Re: The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths
« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2017, 09:33:10 PM »
We won 12 home games last season.

We could've easily won another three under RDM alone when you think back to those late goals (Huddersfield, Forest and Brentford) so say our home form remains strong (with most teams coming here happy to take a point so we're handed the initiative from kick off something like 15 home wins and 5 draws is 50 points.

Really it will come down to the away form, 3 away wins last year was embarrassing. We simply have to do better and quite a bit.

If we want automatic promotion we need a minimum of 10 away wins as with the draws that will get you to about 85 points.

Shows the scale of the task.

To me we won't lose too many games with the defensive players we have, but my sole concern now is the goalscoring.

Last year we were massively reliant on King Kodj , say he gets injured we would be in trouble.

Hogan will do better I think and RHM and Green will get some goals as will Grealish but I still think we need to replace McCormack. Gabby isnt it. Ojo looks like a supplier of chances but I think an experienced 3rd striker will give us cover for injury or form or the chance to turn a game in the last 15 minutes.

It should be McCormack but it will not be him. I think a 3rd striker could make a difference in 6 or 7 games and add 10 points to get us over the line.

Offline Matt Collins

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Re: The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths
« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2017, 05:31:54 AM »
There's one analysis which says: add another couple of reliable goalscorers, toughen up our attitude away from home, and strengthen the squad to make us less reliable on Chester, Jedinak and Kodjia

And all of that's true

But we need to be a lot more creative too. We were pretty bad even in many of our home victories and we can't  necessarily  rely on the same recipe working as much. Looks like Bruce has either identified that we do have the talent to do that within the existing squad (maybe) or that it's really about those other factors (mistake in my view).

Offline KevinGage

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Re: The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths
« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2017, 05:48:08 AM »
If we win lots of football matches we might have a chance.

In truth, the odds were always stacked against us last season.  You don't go from winning 3 games in a season to winning the circa 30 it would have taken to have gone up.

Offline adrenachrome

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Re: The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths
« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2017, 01:07:44 AM »
If we win lots of football matches we might have a chance.

In truth, the odds were always stacked against us last season.  You don't go from winning 3 games in a season to winning the circa 30 it would have taken to have gone up.

That is it in a nutshell.

Offline footyskillz

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Re: The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths
« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2017, 10:14:37 PM »
What numbers and returns of points are needed by October to give realistic chance of promotion ?

Offline Tokyo Sexwhale

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Re: The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths
« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2017, 11:11:48 PM »
I hate these threads.

We look at the run of fixtures.

"Ah, it's only (names of teams that aren't as big as the Villa) - we'll win all of them - maybe drop a couple of points away".

Proceed to underperform in all of them.

Repeat.



 

Guaranteed jinx.

Offline Des Little

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Re: The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths
« Reply #12 on: August 13, 2017, 11:27:49 PM »
This thread is the online equivalent of the gypsys curse.

Offline in exile

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Re: The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths
« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2017, 09:30:34 AM »
This thread is the online equivalent of the gypsys curse.

I wish you hadn't mention those two words.
Now I have to go piss in all four corners of my laptop

Offline myf

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Re: The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths
« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2017, 12:01:14 AM »
Can anyone still foresee 10 away wins, after the last 10 days?