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Offline Chico Hamilton III

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #2070 on: May 01, 2017, 11:33:31 AM »
The only yardstick of performance that truly matters in football is points. Bruce averages 1.5 per game currently. That's not playoff form but isn't a million miles off. Therefore, even though I'm sceptical about how well we'll do next season I think he'll be given a go. Which I think is fair enough.

You have serious doubts about a manager who is the most qualified manager in the league to get us promoted. Pretty sure there are facts to back that up, or at least he's near the top for managers getting teams promoted.

And yet you'd get rid of him and bring in another manager. Who do you think could do better and would want to manage Villa? It's not easy to pick a manager and have them do well in case you haven't noticed.

Just keeping on changing managers and hoping for the best isn't going to work.

As we have seen first hand with every appointment since MON. All of them preceded by calls for change on here, all of them ending in failure.

I am not 100% convinced with Bruce but his record of getting teams out of this division is amongst the best and he has the personality not to be phased by the size of the club and the task facing us. At the moment going for a third manager in less than 12 months smacks of panic and short term thinking. My own feeling is that the owner will also be reluctant to go down that route.



These 2 posts sum up the screwy logic that is being applied by a lot of fans.

"Just keeping on changing managers and hoping for the best isn't going to work." - easily countered with "just keeping a manager who has underachieved won't make him suddenly improve".

"All of them preceded by calls for change on here, all of them ending in failure." - This is true of 99% of all managerial changes, be it after 3 months or 3 years.  All it means is that the vast majority of managers don't bow out on top.

"At the moment going for a third manager in less than 12 months smacks of panic and short term thinking." - As I've often pointed out picking a manager for his promotion record when virtually everyone knows his pragmatic hoofball approach has no place in the premier league is the very definition of short term thinking.  I want him replaced with someone who can start building the style and squad that will keep us safely in midtable in the premier league.  Wyness talks of needing 3 squads, I think he's wrong.  I think there's 3 phases but we should be trying to get as many players as possible who can take that journey with us.  If that means we're signing 20-21 year olds who start now but are only squad players in 3-4 years then so be it, having that sort of plan means the churn as we progress is less every summer.

Who do you think the next manager should be then?
« Last Edit: May 01, 2017, 11:41:46 AM by Chico Hamilton III »

Offline SoccerHQ

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #2071 on: May 01, 2017, 11:44:18 AM »
If it's so easy to get Eddie Howe why didn't we get him in October? Or last summer?

It's alright saying we're miles bigger than Bournemouth but he will not quit a stable job in the prem to move back down to the championship. That's a pie in the sky suggestion currently I'm afraid.

Offline paul_e

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #2072 on: May 01, 2017, 11:50:41 AM »
I've said before it needs to be someone who has worked with young players and improved them.  It needs to be someone who has experience of managing a club where they're expected to win most weeks. It needs to be someone who will help create a club identity and style.

The biggest problem is knowing just how attractive we can be.  If we can sell ourselves well then someone like Frank de Boer would be the perfect choice but he'd take a lot of convincing, he is out of work though and was apparently willing to talk to Rangers.  As cd has advocated Eddie Howe would be another good option.  A few of the other names on here worry me a little (Smith, Wagner) because I don't think they've had any real pressure before and that's the bit that makes managers and players wilt when they arrive.

Going a little leftfield AVB is currently managing in China and as a result Xia will probably be aware of him and his style.  He'll be on big money but he'd be a good option as well.

Offline tomd2103

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #2073 on: May 01, 2017, 11:51:27 AM »
The last two times we have been promoted we have gone for visionary managers who have changed the entire ethos of the club and transformed us from second tier also-rans to contenders for major honours. Sadly, Bruce doesn't seem that type.

Eddie Howe seems the best candidate. Go get him before a bigger-than-Bournemouth club in the Premier League decides to make an approach.

I don't think Bruce would be going anywhere, but if he were to go, I wonder whether Dean Smith would be a serious contender for the job.  On the face of it, he's probably got a similar record to the likes of Dyche had at that point in thrir careers, so would he be worth a shot?

Offline wittonwarrior

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #2074 on: May 01, 2017, 11:52:48 AM »
Would you risk your credibility on a big ask at the villa. Demanding fans big club and an owner who will only settle for the best. In other words the issue being you would ld need to be out work to be interested with a possible exception of dean smith perhaps

Offline Lastfootstamper

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #2075 on: May 01, 2017, 11:57:27 AM »
If we sack Bruce we will turn into Leeds, who change manager every season they don't get promoted, the fact they haven't been promoted is proof that model doesn't work.

You mean not like Watford, then? All that's "proof" of is that it's important to get the decision right. Once will do.[\b]

Quote
Look at the top 2 Newcastle very little change from last season have a manager that had he been appointed earlier would have kept them up. Brighton who have been settled for a long time their promotion has been years in the making.

..... who before settling on Hughton, had four managers over 2013 and 2014.[\b]

Oh yes the law of averages appoint 10 managers and hope that 1 works. I'm glad you aren't running the club. So it's worked for 1 club so let's ignore the multiple clubs it hasn't worked for then. That is the best logic I have ever seen.

I forgot about their promotions in 2013 and 2014.

That's not what I said. My point was that it's important to get the decision right, eventually, once. As all of your examples have proven. By the same measure, if something's not right with the decision that's been taken, change it, learn from it, make a better one. Again, I cite your examples of the right and wrong ways to do it.

But I don't think we should simply use the yardstick of some arbitrary limit of how many shit managers we've already got rid off to vindicate sticking with Bruce. He's an outmoded manager, and, in my opinion, he's not the man to take us up. He might wake up one June morning shouting "eureka!" having had an epiphany about how successful football is played in the here and now, but I won't be betting on it.

Offline paul_e

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #2076 on: May 01, 2017, 12:00:40 PM »
Would you risk your credibility on a big ask at the villa. Demanding fans big club and an owner who will only settle for the best. In other words the issue being you would ld need to be out work to be interested with a possible exception of dean smith perhaps

I'm not sure that's true.  The appeal of a club like ours is easily summed up by the way we talk about Graham Taylor.  To manage a club like Villa you need an ego (and ability to back it up) and if you have a big enough ego to be willing to take the risk then you've probably got the right mentality to make a success of it.

Offline SoccerHQ

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #2077 on: May 01, 2017, 12:14:15 PM »
I've said before it needs to be someone who has worked with young players and improved them.  It needs to be someone who has experience of managing a club where they're expected to win most weeks. It needs to be someone who will help create a club identity and style.

The biggest problem is knowing just how attractive we can be.  If we can sell ourselves well then someone like Frank de Boer would be the perfect choice but he'd take a lot of convincing, he is out of work though and was apparently willing to talk to Rangers.  As cd has advocated Eddie Howe would be another good option.  A few of the other names on here worry me a little (Smith, Wagner) because I don't think they've had any real pressure before and that's the bit that makes managers and players wilt when they arrive.

Going a little leftfield AVB is currently managing in China and as a result Xia will probably be aware of him and his style.  He'll be on big money but he'd be a good option as well.

I only think we can get that calibre once we're back in the prem. If we're mid table in the prem then yes with Xia's stated future ambitions for the club I'd expect us to go for a Howe, De Boer or Brendan Rodgers or whoever the up and coming managers are then given there's no guarantee at all we'll be there in two years time.

Difference with Newcastle is they got Benitez while still in the prem and everyone expected he'd keep them up. He didn't but saw enough potential in the club to pay off.

Offline cdbullyweefan

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #2078 on: May 01, 2017, 12:15:18 PM »
The last two times we have been promoted we have gone for visionary managers who have changed the entire ethos of the club and transformed us from second tier also-rans to contenders for major honours. Sadly, Bruce doesn't seem that type.

Eddie Howe seems the best candidate. Go get him before a bigger-than-Bournemouth club in the Premier League decides to make an approach.

I don't think Bruce would be going anywhere, but if he were to go, I wonder whether Dean Smith would be a serious contender for the job.  On the face of it, he's probably got a similar record to the likes of Dyche had at that point in thrir careers, so would he be worth a shot?

I'd be interested in him, but maybe we are letting his Villa affiliations cloud our judgement? Brentford were excellent in both games against us, but the fact that they're only three points clear of our miserable lot suggests that they haven't been nearly so good for most of the season. Bearing in mind that the last manager who was there for a full season got them into the playoffs, his record is not totally fantastic.  He could be good, or he could be our next Graham Turner appointment.

Eddie Howe, as a manager who has won the Championship and managed comfortably at the level above, seems a far safer choice, and one more in keeping with our history of appointing innovative managers to get us out of the second tier which began with Jimmy Hogan in the thirties.   
« Last Edit: May 01, 2017, 12:22:57 PM by cdbullyweefan »

Offline paul_e

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #2079 on: May 01, 2017, 12:19:34 PM »
I've said before it needs to be someone who has worked with young players and improved them.  It needs to be someone who has experience of managing a club where they're expected to win most weeks. It needs to be someone who will help create a club identity and style.

The biggest problem is knowing just how attractive we can be.  If we can sell ourselves well then someone like Frank de Boer would be the perfect choice but he'd take a lot of convincing, he is out of work though and was apparently willing to talk to Rangers.  As cd has advocated Eddie Howe would be another good option.  A few of the other names on here worry me a little (Smith, Wagner) because I don't think they've had any real pressure before and that's the bit that makes managers and players wilt when they arrive.

Going a little leftfield AVB is currently managing in China and as a result Xia will probably be aware of him and his style.  He'll be on big money but he'd be a good option as well.

I only think we can get that calibre once we're back in the prem. If we're mid table in the prem then yes with Xia's stated future ambitions for the club I'd expect us to go for a Howe, De Boer or Brendan Rodgers or whoever the up and coming managers are then given there's no guarantee at all we'll be there in two years time.

Difference with Newcastle is they got Benitez while still in the prem and everyone expected he'd keep them up. He didn't but saw enough potential in the club to pay off.

Simply put it doesn't hurt to ask.  My issue with our hiring process for years is that we seem to always think we couldn't possibly get someone good so we'll settle for who's available.  McLeish being the ultimate example of that.  If you want to get someone like that you have to ask early and try to get them in with an entire summer, if we hang on until October to see if Bruce can be better then you're right, they're out of our reach.

Offline SoccerHQ

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #2080 on: May 01, 2017, 12:24:22 PM »
The last two times we have been promoted we have gone for visionary managers who have changed the entire ethos of the club and transformed us from second tier also-rans to contenders for major honours. Sadly, Bruce doesn't seem that type.

Eddie Howe seems the best candidate. Go get him before a bigger-than-Bournemouth club in the Premier League decides to make an approach.

I don't think Bruce would be going anywhere, but if he were to go, I wonder whether Dean Smith would be a serious contender for the job.  On the face of it, he's probably got a similar record to the likes of Dyche had at that point in thrir careers, so would he be worth a shot?

I've followed Walsall over the last 5-6 years so seen a lot of Dean Smith coming through and building up his managerial career.

He does play good football, got Walsall playing a very attractive game (for a club with limited resources) and he seems to be doing the same at Brentford. They were one of the best footballing teams I've seen at VP this season, hammered us down there and are playing well currently.

Worry I have is he's not really adaptable. One of the seasons at Walsall they went on a 12 match winless run playing in exactly the same way and think Brentford have a run of 3 wins in 14 earlier this season. It's alright saying it's par for the course at these clubs but it's just the same as the dismal run we have in January and February and that's a big part of why a lot want SB out.

As hard as it is we need to find a manager who doesn't panic as soon as we lose a game and then wins the next one and the one after that. Newcastle is my ideal template. I don't really think they've played that great football this year and they've nearly lost as many games. However when they've lost a game they've followed up by winning their next 3 or 4 games. That gets you promotion.

We need a manager who can sort out the mentality of this club as it's still holding us back. Most obvious indication is the results we get when we score or concede first in a game. I honestly thought SB was capable of turning around the mentality so it worries me someone as experienced as him is looking as non-plussed as the managers we've had in the last 6 years in how to change things.

Offline luke95

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #2081 on: May 01, 2017, 12:36:08 PM »
Would you risk your credibility on a big ask at the villa. Demanding fans big club and an owner who will only settle for the best. In other words the issue being you would ld need to be out work to be interested with a possible exception of dean smith perhaps

I'm not sure that's true.  The appeal of a club like ours is easily summed up by the way we talk about Graham Taylor.  To manage a club like Villa you need an ego (and ability to back it up) and if you have a big enough ego to be willing to take the risk then you've probably got the right mentality to make a success of it.

Aston Villa & football as a whole are a different world to how it was almost 30yrs ago .

Offline SoccerHQ

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #2082 on: May 01, 2017, 12:44:55 PM »
I've said before it needs to be someone who has worked with young players and improved them.  It needs to be someone who has experience of managing a club where they're expected to win most weeks. It needs to be someone who will help create a club identity and style.

The biggest problem is knowing just how attractive we can be.  If we can sell ourselves well then someone like Frank de Boer would be the perfect choice but he'd take a lot of convincing, he is out of work though and was apparently willing to talk to Rangers.  As cd has advocated Eddie Howe would be another good option.  A few of the other names on here worry me a little (Smith, Wagner) because I don't think they've had any real pressure before and that's the bit that makes managers and players wilt when they arrive.

Going a little leftfield AVB is currently managing in China and as a result Xia will probably be aware of him and his style.  He'll be on big money but he'd be a good option as well.

I only think we can get that calibre once we're back in the prem. If we're mid table in the prem then yes with Xia's stated future ambitions for the club I'd expect us to go for a Howe, De Boer or Brendan Rodgers or whoever the up and coming managers are then given there's no guarantee at all we'll be there in two years time.

Difference with Newcastle is they got Benitez while still in the prem and everyone expected he'd keep them up. He didn't but saw enough potential in the club to pay off.

Simply put it doesn't hurt to ask.  My issue with our hiring process for years is that we seem to always think we couldn't possibly get someone good so we'll settle for who's available.  McLeish being the ultimate example of that.  If you want to get someone like that you have to ask early and try to get them in with an entire summer, if we hang on until October to see if Bruce can be better then you're right, they're out of our reach.

The point to get in a very capable European manager to push us on was surely when we'd finished 6th three times. I'm always surprised more people don't look at that period as a massive missed opportunity.

Yes we'd just sold Milner but we still had Young and Downing in the squad and would sign Bent 6 months later so significant money was still there in that period.

I liken it to Spurs. They'd finished 5th and 6th under AVB and Sherwood and then Levy made the inspired choice of getting in Pochettino to push them even further.

We appointed a semi retired bloke from France who was a good manager 6 years before we appointed him, the equivalent of us signing Ginola and Schmeichel.

It was a massive missed opportunity that set us off on a slow downward spiral that acceletated with Lambert and McLeish.

Love or hate MON but one thing he did do right was get the clubs mentality back to how it was in the 90s. We became a team tough to beat again and could give anyone in the division a game (bar the one blow out result a season like 5-0 at Liverpool or 7-1 at Chelsea).


Offline auntiesledd

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #2083 on: May 01, 2017, 12:46:09 PM »
If we sack Bruce we will turn into Leeds, who change manager every season they don't get promoted, the fact they haven't been promoted is proof that model doesn't work.

You mean not like Watford, then? All that's "proof" of is that it's important to get the decision right. Once will do.

Quote
Look at the top 2 Newcastle very little change from last season have a manager that had he been appointed earlier would have kept them up. Brighton who have been settled for a long time their promotion has been years in the making.

.....who before settling on Hughton, had four managers over 2013 and 2014.

Spot on Mr Stamper. Admittedly neither club was infested with over-paid tossers who had made it their mission to do sweet FA for their filthy lucre, but unlike us they've gained their respective success' without spunking massive amounts of money in the transfer market. Bringing in the right manager, at the right club - & at the right time - is clearly a very tricky call: but evidently it's an outcome that can be achieved. Unfortunately, I can't say I'm especially optimistic about the ability of our owner & his Board to seriously question their own managerial recruitment policy; and to learn from those who have shown their ability to make the correct decision(s).

Offline paul_e

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Re: Bruce out?
« Reply #2084 on: May 01, 2017, 12:47:56 PM »
Would you risk your credibility on a big ask at the villa. Demanding fans big club and an owner who will only settle for the best. In other words the issue being you would ld need to be out work to be interested with a possible exception of dean smith perhaps

I'm not sure that's true.  The appeal of a club like ours is easily summed up by the way we talk about Graham Taylor.  To manage a club like Villa you need an ego (and ability to back it up) and if you have a big enough ego to be willing to take the risk then you've probably got the right mentality to make a success of it.

Aston Villa & football as a whole are a different world to how it was almost 30yrs ago .

and yet we still employ managers who want to play football from then and if people try to suggest we really need to change that we get told by some that 6 months of Garde and 8 months of Houllier were our attempts to change and they failed so we should just stick with something safe and simple.  That's why it needs someone with a ego/huge self-confidence because they need to be willing to stick to their guns and force a change in the mentality and drag the club along with them.