Promotion Maths

[Small Rodent]

There are 17 teams around us and mostly above us that potentially can make the playoffs.  We are adrift of the playoffs by 7 points, so over the next 33 games we merely have to score 0.21 points per game more than all of those teams to get in the playoffs.  Simple.  Welllllllll, I didn't take into account goal difference, but assumed that with all of those extra points against everyone else we would be home and hosed with that.  Is it possible?  Well since Bruce took over, we are averaging 2 points a game, the 17 teams around us 1.23 points.  Nobody is scoring more than 2 points per game in that group so we are not losing any ground to anyone.  In fact only the jawdies in the whole league are doing better than us.  This is going to be easy.

have you used 95% Confidence Intervals?

[oldhill_avfc]

There are 17 teams around us and mostly above us that potentially can make the playoffs.  We are adrift of the playoffs by 7 points, so over the next 33 games we merely have to score 0.21 points per game more than all of those teams to get in the playoffs.  Simple.  Welllllllll, I didn't take into account goal difference, but assumed that with all of those extra points against everyone else we would be home and hosed with that.  Is it possible?  Well since Bruce took over, we are averaging 2 points a game, the 17 teams around us 1.23 points.  Nobody is scoring more than 2 points per game in that group so we are not losing any ground to anyone.  In fact only the jawdies in the whole league are doing better than us.  This is going to be easy.

have you used 95% Confidence Intervals?

What? - be wrong 1 in 20 times! - that's no way to plan.

[MoetVillan]

There was quite a lot of tongue in cheek!  To plot our next 33 games based on two games is somewhat risky, this is the place where bankers tend to lurk.  And to state its easy to score 0.21 more than the teams round us for each and every game until the end of the season is not something I would put a lot of money on.  However, it is more than doable.  I just think we have got to get our head down and win the next game and go on from there.  Everything is statistical bollocks

[Andy_Lochhead_in_the_air]

[Neil Hawkes]

Here's the rub, the secret to good man management is not to push people to achieve the end goal by stating "we need to win over 20 games", as that is just demoralising.
You should be stating "we need to win the next game"; that's the target that needs to be instilled in all the players, (especially the ones that are not blessed with massive intellect).

[olaftab]

Maths!

Math. Maths just doesn't add up!

[MoetVillan]

Maths.  Math just isn't spelt right

[UK Redsox]

Maths.  Math just isn't spelt right

I thought that it was 'Rithmatic

[IFWaters]

we're 6  and 6 goal difference points behind the playoff places, Bristol City in 6th atm.

Its a hard target to get in those spots by christmas day, 8 games away, including 3 of the bottom 4 in the league :

SHA away
Blackburn home
Brighton away
Cardiff away
Leeds away
Wigan home
Norwich away
QPR away

[footyskillz]

Apart from Norwich can pretty much win all those other matches and dish out some beatings along the way !

[Steve67]

Fuck Norwich. We will beat them too.

[ozzjim]

2 home  6 away seems harsh

[Richard]

Cardiff is home end of November

[MoetVillan]

2 home  6 away seems harsh

Bring on away games. We are 100% under Bruce!!!

[adrenachrome]

2 home  6 away seems harsh

Bring on away games. We are 100% under Bruce!!!

Good point. I think we will be more effective away for a while.