Promotion Maths

[PeterWithesShin]

I think our immediate focus should be on winning 20 games in row.

Too true.

[Sexual Ealing]

If we can put 10 or so game unbeaten run together, with almost no draws, a sense of inevitability will build. Both within Villa and in the minds of the other teams.

That is one almighty 'if', however.

[ciggiesnbeer]

So based off this deep data analysis our strategy should be to win as many games as possible.

[Sexual Ealing]

So based off this deep data analysis our strategy should be to win as many games as possible.

More than is possible, preferably.

[ciggiesnbeer]

Very good.

[IFWaters]

So based off this deep data analysis our strategy should be to win as many games as possible.

well spotted.

[Lastfootstamper]

I think our immediate focus should be on winning 20 games in row.

Too true.

I don't think I could cope.

[Ad@m]

So based off this deep data analysis our strategy should be to win as many games as possible.

Exactly. Is anyone surprised that to get promoted you need to win most of your games?

[themossman]

I think our immediate focus should be on winning 20 games in row.

Too true.

I don't think I could cope.

Haha. Imagine what would happen to this website?!

[olaftab]

This math is all academic at the moment.

[eamonn]

Maths!

[footyskillz]

Average points in last 5 years to get in the playoffs is 74.

We have 14 from 13 games.

Sp we need 60 points from 33 games, just under 2 points a game.

Or to put it bluntly 20 wins.

Or 17 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses. ie winning over half our games.

Thanks for statistical update . I think having idea of target is good to know. If we predict by looking at fixtures villas points total -or calling 20 wins - then target could be achieved.
I see there are 33 matches left.

[MoetVillan]

There are 17 teams around us and mostly above us that potentially can make the playoffs.  We are adrift of the playoffs by 7 points, so over the next 33 games we merely have to score 0.21 points per game more than all of those teams to get in the playoffs.  Simple.  Welllllllll, I didn't take into account goal difference, but assumed that with all of those extra points against everyone else we would be home and hosed with that.  Is it possible?  Well since Bruce took over, we are averaging 2 points a game, the 17 teams around us 1.23 points.  Nobody is scoring more than 2 points per game in that group so we are not losing any ground to anyone.  In fact only the jawdies in the whole league are doing better than us.  This is going to be easy.

[footyskillz]

There are 17 teams around us and mostly above us that potentially can make the playoffs.  We are adrift of the playoffs by 7 points, so over the next 33 games we merely have to score 0.21 points per game more than all of those teams to get in the playoffs.  Simple.  Welllllllll, I didn't take into account goal difference, but assumed that with all of those extra points against everyone else we would be home and hosed with that.  Is it possible?  Well since Bruce took over, we are averaging 2 points a game, the 17 teams around us 1.23 points.  Nobody is scoring more than 2 points per game in that group so we are not losing any ground to anyone.  In fact only the jawdies in the whole league are doing better than us.  This is going to be easy.

This post has made my day ! Thanks it great not only to be optimistic after the win but we can be more than realistic to be in play offs  . Di  matteo was confident all along and must have had such basis on the statistical points average !:brilliant post as is the original and updated version for playoffs I hope we could achieve top 2.
Btw can take into account Newcastle slump in form at some point as Villa have had there's it's perhaps not unrealistic to make division champions or automatic top 2! But for sure your clear explanation of whats currently needed sees optimism from me as definitely achievable to reach needed points total . However i really be nervous as play off is win or bust. Bruce did it last year and Diame won it with a classic goal but i don't think I could handle the drama !!

[UK Redsox]

There are 17 teams around us and mostly above us that potentially can make the playoffs.  We are adrift of the playoffs by 7 points, so over the next 33 games we merely have to score 0.21 points per game more than all of those teams to get in the playoffs.  Simple.  Welllllllll, I didn't take into account goal difference, but assumed that with all of those extra points against everyone else we would be home and hosed with that.  Is it possible?  Well since Bruce took over, we are averaging 2 points a game, the 17 teams around us 1.23 points.  Nobody is scoring more than 2 points per game in that group so we are not losing any ground to anyone.  In fact only the jawdies in the whole league are doing better than us.  This is going to be easy.