Promotion Maths

[IFWaters]

Average points for the automatic places in the last 12 years is 87.

Thats :

24 wins
15 draws
only 7 losses

No room for fannying around at the start of the season unless we want to do it the hard way by the playoffs.

[brian green]

More than five times our points tally last season.  Chilling.

[Villa in Denmark]

More than five times our points tally last season.  Chilling.

We'll have beaten last seasons tally by the middlse of September.




crosses finger, toes, arms and legs

[Richard]

When you read it like that it looks a hell of a challenge.

[ozzjim]

Less than 2 points a game. Win 26 of the 46 you are almost there. You need to hit a purple patch a couple of times and win 5-6 in a row, but also have the knack of keeping on nudging the points along.

[passitsideways]

Or win a few more than 50% of your games. Challenging, but not that daunting.

[luke95]

24 wins!?

So only 21 more than we managed last season then ..... Piece of piss!!

[Bottom Right 89]

If we draw tomorrow and win all our remaining fixtures we're guaranteed to finish above Newcastle 😂

70 is the first milestone - gets us in the playoffs.

[postal]

24 wins!?

So only 21 more than we managed last season then ..... Piece of piss!!

The first step is to get the monkey of 'the opposition have just scored, thats it, game over' of last season is off their backs.

If they have, then they have a good chance, if not, its going to be a long season.

[London Villan]

24 wins. Have done that cumulatively over the past 3 seasons?

[SoccerHQ]

Need to win plenty of home games. That's a big challenge.

Something like 15 home wins out of 23 needs to be a target. If we can do that that's pretty much 50 points with a couple of draws.

Then 10 away wins and we're pretty much there.

The way I look at it, you can lose 15 games in this league and still get promoted....as long as you don't draw many.

Drawing games was a massive problem for us in our premier league years when challenging for top 6 so hopefully we'll move away from that obsession now we've dropped a level.

[footyskillz]

Need to win plenty of home games. That's a big challenge.

Something like 15 home wins out of 23 needs to be a target. If we can do that that's pretty much 50 points with a couple of draws.

Then 10 away wins and we're pretty much there.

The way I look at it, you can lose 15 games in this league and still get promoted....as long as you don't draw many.

Drawing games was a massive problem for us in our premier league years when challenging for top 6 so hopefully we'll move away from that obsession now we've dropped a level.

I think now we can all rexamine this delightful thread with renewed optimism.
Very astute in the observation of draws and the may be the diffrence between top 2 and the play offs

[IFWaters]

Average points in last 5 years to get in the playoffs is 74.

We have 14 from 13 games.

Sp we need 60 points from 33 games, just under 2 points a game.

Or to put it bluntly 20 wins.

Or 17 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses. ie winning over half our games.

[themossman]

I think our immediate focus should be on winning 2 games in row.

[itbrvilla]

Slim chance. But if we can put a run together and build some confidence I'll be more optimistic.