Villa final position projected by Sporting Index

[Toronto Villa]

I wonder where the Sporting Index would have had us finishing last season following a 10pts in 4 games start?

[Villa in Denmark]

That's all well and good Vegas, but that points model is obviously bollocks when it predicts an outcome like it has.  Not just our end total, but the overall consequences for the league.

I can't be bothered to look up the prediction table, but looking at the bottom end of the table they must be predicting a total points take of over 3 points per game!

And in essence, the bookies aren't interested in the result.  They're only interested in ensuring that their odds minimise there exposure to a big win.

Our odds for finishing top 6 are probably around 250-1 which would be reasonably fair unfortunately.  If people started lumping on that, regardless of whether the bookie thinks it's still a daft bet and free money for him, he'll have to drop his odds to dissuade other people from following the crowd "just in case".

[aj2k77]

I had Villa and West Ham to win the handicap league at 16/1 before the season started, Villa +46pts West Ham +40pts. Villa one is not looking too good.

[Ads]

50 points and we're only in September. We're pissing the league!

[Tony Erdington]

Dream of the lofty heights of Twelth

[Vegas]

That's all well and good Vegas, but that points model is obviously bollocks when it predicts an outcome like it has.  Not just our end total, but the overall consequences for the league.

I can't be bothered to look up the prediction table, but looking at the bottom end of the table they must be predicting a total points take of over 3 points per game!

And in essence, the bookies aren't interested in the result.  They're only interested in ensuring that their odds minimise there exposure to a big win.

Our odds for finishing top 6 are probably around 250-1 which would be reasonably fair unfortunately.  If people started lumping on that, regardless of whether the bookie thinks it's still a daft bet and free money for him, he'll have to drop his odds to dissuade other people from following the crowd "just in case".

It's not bollocks. I think you're getting confused between two things, firstly the expected points per team, and secondly the expected points of the team that finishes bottom.

Think of it with dice. If you roll 6 dice, the expected 'average' score for any 1 of them is 3.5. But the expected score of the lowest dice (you don't know which one this will be before rolling) is around 1.4.  So someone could look at each of the expected scores for each dice and say 'that's bollocks, one of these dice will definitely get lower than 3', and of course they'd be right. But the expected scores for each dice are indeed correct.
With football it's slightly more complicated as the teams aren't equal but the probability principle is the same.

[Jockey Randall]

This is the current points spread being offered by Sporting Index:

Manchester City Points 85.5   87   
Arsenal Points   77   78.5   
Chelsea Points 72   73.5   
Manchester United Points 71.5   73   
Liverpool Points 62.5   64   
Tottenham Points 54.5   56   
Everton Points 54   55.5   
Swansea Points 50   51.5   
Crystal Palace Points 50   51.5   
Southampton Points 50   51.5   
Leicester Points 48.5   50   
West Ham Points 46   47.5   
Stoke Points 41.5   43   
West Brom Points 40.5   42   
Bournemouth Points 40   41.5   
Norwich Points 39.5   41   
Newcastle Points 39   40.5   
Watford Points 39   40.5   
Aston Villa Points 36.5   38   
Sunderland Points 30.5   32   

I think it looks fairly accurate regarding the total amount of points that will be accumulated. Obviously Villa will be on a good 15 points higher.

[levico]

Might need to make a signing or two in the January window but I think we should be 'comfortable' by March/April. I think we will finish around 12th or 13th.

I'm beginning to think that I may have been a tad optimistic for once. Still think we'll be ok but we may need another change of manager.

[Risso]

I think it'll be us, Newcastle and Sunderland, and honestly, what reasonable football fan would be sad to see the back of any of the three, including us.  Easily the three worst teams who have just about managed to avoid going down recently, this year I think could all three teams sink.

[mr underhill]

imagine how much giant slaying that would bring about in the Championship.