Villa final position projected by Sporting Index

[villadelph]

Sheesh, another <40pt season?

I don't see it.

[thick_mike]

Two new posters, two plugs for bookies.

Hmmmmm...

[ozzjim]

It might not be far wrong if we pull that shit every fucking week.

[mr underhill]

it might even be insanely generous. Big improvement needed very quickly - and that's just the manager

[villampls]

A couple of things -
I've actually posted before, but lost my login, password and everything else. I would post more often if I had something insightful to say, but just like H&V and I think the majority of members are considerably better informed than I am.

I did work for Coral between 92 and 94, but I would not advocate gambling to anyone. Having said that bookmakers are the best way to see what an impartial and knowledgeable 3rd party thinks of our chances.

I am genuinely interested to hear how many points members think we will get. I really want to believe we will finish comfortably mid-table, but I'm a pessimist and the odds at the moment are very sobering. When things get better I'll post updated points projections.

[in exile]

Sheesh, another <40pt season?

I don't see it.

Really?

[LTA]

Bookies have us as second favourites for relegation now behind Sunderland.

[dave.woodhall]

Bookies have us as second favourites for relegation now behind Sunderland.

I'll worry about that on the day bookies decide the league table.

[JUAN PABLO]

Bookies have us as second favourites for relegation now behind Sunderland.

the same bookies who had chelsea has champions about a mth ago

[Villa in Denmark]

Bookies have us as second favourites for relegation now behind Sunderland.

the same bookies who had chelsea has champions about a mth ago

Christ, how many times have we got to go through this?
That's not a reflection of a bookies educated guess. That's a reflection of where the public at large are putting money.
At this stage two noses putting a fiver each on could swing the odds like that.

Edit: Not a dig at you Juan Pablo.

[eamonn]

Welcome villampls.

[Toronto Villa]

We played well enough to blow Sunderland out of the water and yesterday for most of the game at Leicester. We should have been well out of sight. I'll get worries when we actually play badly for large chunks of games like most of last season. We will learn from this and improve. Right now our biggest enemy is naivety.

[Villa in Denmark]

Another reason those figures are bollocks.

They reckon that the bottom team will finish with more points than the mark for safety for the last god knows how many seasons and, at the same time, the safety mark will be the second or third highest since the league went to twenty teams.

If the safety mark is so high it's generally the result of at least one team being cut well adrift - there's only so many points to go round.

Their scenario would mean the champions winning with around 70-75 points and the top 6 all being with 4-6 points of that.  Not going to happen.

[brian green]

Bookie's odds are not based on fact. They are marketing tools to encourage people to gamble. Bookie's know gambling is driven largely by sentiment and odds adjusted accordingly.

[Vegas]

Responding to a few comments like 'odds are bullshit', 'not based off fact', 'odds just represent opinion' etc.

There's some truth in some of these statements but they largely are inaccurate. Bookies odds are set to represent the probable outcome of whichever market they are looking at. If they weren't, bookies would quickly go out of business.  It's partly true that they reflect the weight of money placed, but a high proportion of this money is now being placed by fairly professional punters also using reasonably sophisticated models, particularly from abroad.

Yes of course they're not always right, there is (luckily) a degree of randomness and unpredictability in football, but in a debate in our prospects this season they're a very legitimate, evidence-based input to consider.(Whether or not you agree with the morality of gambling and its promotion)