Stuart James' season preview in The Guardian
Premier League 2014-15 preview No2: Aston VillaOn the face of it, another survival scrap beckons unless everything spectacularly comes off for Paul Lambert at Villa Park John Ashdown discusses the issues facing Paul Lambert this season.Guardian writers’ predicted position: 16th (NB: this is not necessarily Stuart James’s prediction, but the average of our writers’ tips)Last season’s position: 15thOdds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 4,000-1Where to start? The owner wants out but has been unable to find a buyer, the manager has presided over two abysmal seasons and is on borrowed time with a section of the supporters, the only additions to the playing squad so far are free transfers, and the chief financial officer is running the club on a day-to-day basis after the chief executive made an unexpected exit. It is little wonder that words such as turmoil, crisis and rudderless get banded about at Villa Park.On the pitch, Aston Villa have flirted with relegation in each of the last four seasons. A league table for the (13) clubs that have featured in all of those Premier League campaigns – based on the total number of points accumulated over that period – shows Villa bottom of the pile. In the last three years Villa have finished 16th, 15th and 15th, averaging a point per game in two of those seasons. It has been a miserable cycle of underachievement.For now, Randy Lerner remains the owner of a club that has racked up cumulative losses of £217.7m since he took over in 2006 (last season’s figures are not yet available), brought him precious little in the way of success and stretched his patience to breaking point. “The last several seasons have been week-in, week-out battles,” Lerner said in a statement the day after last season ended, when he confirmed Villa had been put up for sale.At the time, some of those close to Lerner questioned the merits of making his intentions public, even if it had become the worst kept secret in football and the constant speculation – not to mention criticism – was making life uncomfortable for the American.Eight weeks later Lerner released another statement, saying that he was turning his “full attention back to Villa matters at hand”, having committed to Lambert at the outset that he would “become completely focused on the upcoming season should there be no agreement to sell by the time players and coaches return to training”.In short, everything remains up in the air, with the rumour mill offering tantalising glimpses of a brighter future without anything close to confirmation. In the meantime Lambert is flying blind, entering the final 12 months of his three-year contract with no knowledge of how long Lerner will be around. According to the bookmakers, the Scot will start the season among the favourites to be the first Premier League manager sacked.If that feels harsh in the context of what is taking place at the club now, the truth is that Lambert has endured a dreadful two years. He has the worst Premier League record of any Villa manager and that is before we get to the humiliating defeats against lower-league opponents in cup competitions. Financial restrictions have been in place but it is often overlooked that Lambert has spent close to £40m.The former Norwich manager believed that he could revive Villa through bringing in young and hungry players from the lower leagues and overseas, rather than recruiting, or utilising, Premier League experience. At the outset Lambert made it clear that it was his choice, not Lerner’s, to go down that path – “The football decisions are mine, I’ll take responsibility for that” – and expressed his conviction that it would work. “I have a great belief that the young lads can do it. I have no trepidation that they can’t do it.”Come the end of last season, Lambert was singing to a different tune. He recognised that Villa needed experience, which (along with Lerner severely tightening the purse strings) has influenced a change in approach in the transfer market this summer. Villa have brought in Joe Cole (aged 32), Philippe Senderos (29) and Kieran Richardson (29) on free transfers. They are not the most inspiring signings but, realistically, were never going to be given Lerner’s position. The balancing act for Lerner is that, while he wants to limit spending quite understandably, he also needs to make sure that Lambert has enough quality at his disposal to keep Villa out of the mire, or what has become a hard sell will turn into an impossible sell.Of the new recruits, Richardson offers versatility, and assuming he is deployed at left-back or left-wing back, should be an improvement on what has gone before in a problematic position for Lambert – it is bizarre to think the Villa manager has signed a left-back in each of his three seasons and also brought in another, Ryan Bertrand, on loan during that time. Cole, with his craft and guile, is just the sort of player Villa need if – and it is a big if – he stays fit and demonstrates that he is still capable of influencing matches in the twilight of his career. In his second spell with West Ham United, Cole started brightly and showed flashes of real promise but injury curtailed his contribution and he became a bit-part player, completing only one Premier League match last season.As for Senderos, the much-maligned Switzerland international is, to put it kindly, a strange addition to a defence that has conceded 130 league goals in the last two seasons. To put it unkindly, Senderos’s arrival is a symbol of just how far Villa have fallen. Perhaps we should reserve judgment until he has had a run of games.Lambert, who is targeting another couple of players including a defensive midfielder (Ki Sung-yueng remains on the radar) and possibly a wide man, has made arguably his most significant signing in the dugout. Roy Keane, Martin O’Neill’s No2 with the Republic of Ireland, has replaced the sacked Ian Culverhouse as Lambert’s assistant at Villa. It is an intriguing appointment and it will be fascinating to see what impact Keane has.Keane will take the majority of the training and the word is that he has already impressed a number of the players, including Bent, the club-record signing who is back in the picture after being jettisoned from the first-team squad last summer. Alan Hutton, who has never played under Lambert, is another to have been brought in out the cold – further evidence of a significant shift in approach, which Lerner is understood to have supported.With Charles N’Zogbia fit and seemingly wanted again after a year on the sidelines with a ruptured achilles, and Jores Okore back in action after recovering from a ruptured cruciate ligament, the Villa side at the start of the season could have a very different feel to the one that limped over the line in May. Libor Kozak, the Czech Republic international who broke his leg in January, is another due to return in the near future.While all of that news is positive, it is imperative that Lambert holds on to a couple of key players, starting with Ron Vlaar. The Dutchman was one of the outstanding defenders at the World Cup and there are no shortage of suitors for a player who is in the last year of his contract. Vlaar, by his own admission, endured a difficult first 12 months at Villa but he was much improved last season and held Villa’s brittle defence together at times.Then there is Christian Benteke, whose hopes of starring at the World Cup were shattered when he ruptured an achilles tendon in April. Benteke is making decent progress with his rehabilitation and could well be fit in September. The Belgian’s second season at Villa may not have lived up to the first but he still plundered 10 Premier League goals in 24 starts, despite going 11 games without scoring at one stage. Villa are desperate to keep the striker but it would not be a surprise if their resolve is tested before the window closes.All in all, Lambert faces one hell of a challenge to pull everything together, whether that be getting the best from his free transfers, motivating players he had previously discarded, convincing the club’s stellar talents to stay on for another season, extracting every ounce from those whose contracts are running down (Fabian Delph, an industrious midfielder Villa can ill afford to lose, and Gabriel Agbonlahor are both in their final 12 months, along with Vlaar), or coaxing a little extra from some that lost their way last season, such as Andreas Weimann.As for the rest, are Nathan Baker and Ciaran Clark good enough? Is Ashley Westwood able to take his game to the next level? Can Gary Gardner put all his injury problems behind him and make an impression? Is this the season that young Jack Grealish breaks through? And, with or without good cause, will the man sat behind me in the press box ever stop berating Karim El Ahmadi?Whether there will be any improvement in the style of football, through a change in personnel, tactics or Keane’s influence on the training ground, remains to be seen. Possession might be overrated in football’s new age but it still feels unacceptable that only West Ham and Crystal Palace made fewer passes than Villa last season, and 39 goals from 38 matches hardly qualifies as entertainment.The proof will be in the pudding when the new season gets under way at Stoke, before home games against Newcastle United and Hull City. Then the computer software that devises the Premier League fixtures decided to have some fun with Villa. The next five matches read: Liverpool (a), Arsenal (h), Chelsea (a), Manchester City (h), Everton (a). A trip to Loftus Road offers some respite of sorts before Tottenham Hotspur visit Villa Park. All of which means that Villa play last season’s top six, and all but two of the teams that finished in the top half, in their first 10 matches.Villa, in fairness, won at Arsenal on the opening day last season, beat Manchester City and Chelsea at home and drew at Anfield, so we should be careful about condemning them to a bad start before a ball has been kicked. It is hard, however, to be optimistic about the campaign ahead when the club is in such a state of limbo. On the face of it, another survival scrap beckons unless everything spectacularly comes off for Lambert.The club’s loyal supporters – it is remarkable to think that the average attendance has remained above 35,000 during the last two seasons, when Villa have lost a record number of league games at home (19 in total) and served up some dire football – deserve so much more. Their football club needs re-energising but that will only happen with a change of ownership.
''turmoil, crisis and rudderless'' perfectly sums up the current state of affairs....
Horrible reading
Here's ESPN's season preview for Villa http://t.co/k60JeQt1oz
The article is spot-on. Basically 4 years of decline and getting worse under Lerner. The thing I can't fathom is Lerner trying not to spend, and yet an investment of £15-20M would almost certainly protect his asset - he's prepared to lose upwards of £100M if the club get relegated. He should be doing his utmost to leave the club in the best shape possible, and yet he's doing the opposite. Surely the club would be more attractive to potential buyers with a better quality squad to start off with?
LAST SEASONPremier League 15th, 38pts, -22 GD FA Cup Third round League Cup Third round Top league scorer Christian Benteke 10 Bookings 77 (second highest) with no red cards Manager Paul Lambert (since June 2012; age 45 on 7 Aug) Odds on being first out of his job 10-1 (5th favourite) Players in Joe Cole (West Ham, free), Kieran Richardson (Fulham, free), Philippe Senderos (Valencia, free, after loan from Fulham), Tom Leggett, Isaac Nehemie (both Southampton, undisc). Players out Marc Albrighton (Leicester, free), Jordan Bowery (Rotherham United, £250,000), Nicklas Helenius (Aalborg, loan), Yacouba Sylla (Erciyesspor, loan), Nathan Delfouneso (Blackpool, free), Aidan Grant, Andras Stieber (all released) Club turnover in 2012-13 £84m, 10th Wage bill in 2012-13 £72m, 8th Typing Paul Lambert's name into a popular search engine to check his age, the first three suggestions were: 'Paul Lambert'; 'Paul Lambert sacked'; and 'Paul Lambert out'. Still, amid the Aston Villa meltdown, the Scot remains one constant at the club. As rumours of Randy Lerner's intention to sell spread last season, four points were picked up in the final nine matches. The owner wants to go, the chief executive has gone, two prominent backroom staff left after a disciplinary procedure. Lambert is understandably unpopular after two miserable seasons and he would be shorter odds for the sack if there were anyone in charge long enough to dismiss him and find a successor. But attracting a manager of the right calibre to a struggling, underachieving club is difficult, and that much harder when anyone coming in would know that they would be vulnerable to a new owner's desire to make his mark. The Scot is clearly feeling touchy, objecting to a column Ian Taylor wrote for the Birmingham Mail, leading to the former player being warned off the US tour. At the same time, supporters' clubs have reacted angrily to a clause branch chairpersons must agree to: 'You will not partake in any abusive conversations towards anyone associated with the Club in any public forum, whether this is on a page that is personal to you and bears your name, OR on a page that bears the name of your Lions Club (including social media, Facebook, Twitter, etc).' The possible interpretations of the vague 'abusive conversations towards' led one branch chairman to call it 'like the kind of customer practice you would expect in North Korea or Russia'. It is no way to treat fans helping to pay for the division's eighth highest wage bill, on 2012-13's figures, while watching a side pick up more bookings than anyone but Stoke for the second season running. Lambert was not a bad choice for Villa originally: in his early 40s, an achiever at Norwich, with a distinguished playing career. But a lingering smell of mediocrity going back decades became a stench under Alex McLeish and he has been unable to dispel it. No manager seems to go on to better things, or even half-decent ones, after taking on this job. The peaks for Lambert have been illusory: last season's opening day win at Arsenal was followed by three straight defeats, setting the tone. September's win over Manchester City preceded four winless games; March's victory against Chelsea gave way to four straight defeats, the first a 4-1 home humbling to Stoke - in which Villa led for 15 early minutes. The topsy-turvy nature of Villa's season is easy to see from their month-by-month rankings on our stats pages. While 13th in three games in August was followed by ninth over three games in September, hardly a seismic difference, the subsequent oscillations were far more marked: 18th in October then sixth in November, 18th in December then seventh in January, 20th in February then eighth in March. At the end of that month they were 12th in the table, but then came Christian Benteke's Achilles injury. Finally Villa achieved some consistency, but of an undesirable nature, with the 17th-best record for April and 14th for May. The best that could be said was that Villa were the Midlands' top club, but that was by default rather than on merit as West Brom surrendered their 2013 prominence. Those three wins against top-four sides, especially the ones against Arsenal and City, gave a glimpse of what Lambert wants. Perhaps there would have been more such moments if Benteke had not suffered his season-ending injury. But that may yet prove a short-term blessing because the Belgian at his best looks too good for this side and is less likely to move on when crocked. Ron Vlaar was fit for neighbouring Holland and with a touch more collective nerve could have been playing in the World Cup final; naturally he earned admirers and he has only another year on his contract. His international form was more noteworthy than that for his club but he would be hard to replace. Such is the dire state of affairs that Darren Bent and Alan Hutton are back, along with Charles N'Zogbia after injury. Of the new arrivals, that of Roy Keane as Lambert's assistant is plainly the most attention-grabbing. In theory it could prove galvanising - that is certainly the intention - but the Republic of Ireland assistant manager is a gamble in a crisis. Shay Given was trying to be complimentary when he said: "He always gets talked about for his dark side and shouting at people but he's been very helpful for all the players," but not too many clubs benefit from having a Sith Lord on their books. At least he will be well-informed about the club from Martin O'Neill but he is on the one hand semi-detached, given his international role, and on the other an on-the-spot successor who could easily be tried out as a caretaker should Lambert go. A trio of new players would have excited different emotions earlier in their careers. Joe Cole's injuries have given his career a twilight feel for far too long given that he is still only 32. Kieran Richardson, nine years ago a double scorer on his England debut, has just gone through relegation with Fulham, who deemed Philippe Senderos not up to the challenge and loaned him out to Valencia. Victor Moses, despite or perhaps because of his difficult season at Liverpool, could make more of an impact with supporters if a deal materialises. Lambert has to capitalise on August's fixtures or face a September under pressure against some of the best. After travelling to Stoke on the opening Saturday, Villa host Newcastle and Hull. But after the international break they travel to Liverpool and Chelsea, either side of the visit of Arsenal. After that trio comes the home game with Manchester City, then 14 days off for the second international break. Lambert will do well to survive an interval that would allow a new manager the maximum available time in which to bed in. A wantaway owner, a wanted-out manager: it's difficult to know where former European Cup winners from the country's second largest city should go from here. As long as it doesn't involve derbies against Blues. Philip Cornwall
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Topic: Media and Press 2014/15 (Read 17303 times)
