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Author Topic: Is this what transition looks like?  (Read 104839 times)

Offline garyshawsknee

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Re: Is this what transition looks like?
« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2013, 12:04:30 PM »
Without checking properly, i think we have more points from these fixtures than we did last season, which is a sign of progress, the defense seems to be slightly improved, but its the home form and the inability to break teams down which is still worrying.

 I have full faith in PL, he's no mug and won't have been happy with recent performances, even though he won't shout it from the roof tops. Just wish he would have spent that £7 million on an attacking midfielder.

Offline Ad@m

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Re: Is this what transition looks like?
« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2013, 12:16:53 PM »
Supertom, you're contradicting yourself a little bit here.  In one breath you say that had Andi scored the golden chances he has had this season we'd be in the top 6 and then in the next you're saying the reason we're midtable is that we don't create enough chances.

Does anyone have a source for these chance statistics?  I keep seeing references on here to us not having enough chances but I can't say I've seen them anywhere else.  Also, only analysing simplistic measures of on/off target you can end up drawing the wrong conclusions (Benteke's header yesterday which beat the keeper but came back off the bar - ie off target - was a much better chance than a crap trickler that runs through to the keeper but is on target - likewise, Andi's through on goal chance when Morrison pulled him down was a better chance than Jo Cole's angled shot which Guzan saved).

The football analysts talk about the quality of chances, rather than them being on or off target.  I have absolutely nothing to back this up other than watching every home game and the highlights of away matches on MOTD but I'd suggest we have a greater number of high quality chances than the majority of teams.

Offline supertom

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Re: Is this what transition looks like?
« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2013, 12:41:07 PM »
Supertom, you're contradicting yourself a little bit here.  In one breath you say that had Andi scored the golden chances he has had this season we'd be in the top 6 and then in the next you're saying the reason we're midtable is that we don't create enough chances.

Does anyone have a source for these chance statistics?  I keep seeing references on here to us not having enough chances but I can't say I've seen them anywhere else.  Also, only analysing simplistic measures of on/off target you can end up drawing the wrong conclusions (Benteke's header yesterday which beat the keeper but came back off the bar - ie off target - was a much better chance than a crap trickler that runs through to the keeper but is on target - likewise, Andi's through on goal chance when Morrison pulled him down was a better chance than Jo Cole's angled shot which Guzan saved).

The football analysts talk about the quality of chances, rather than them being on or off target.  I have absolutely nothing to back this up other than watching every home game and the highlights of away matches on MOTD but I'd suggest we have a greater number of high quality chances than the majority of teams.

That's not really a contradiction that was merely playing the IF game.  I appreciate that it only takes one chance to win a football game of course, but you better your chances of scoring by creating more chances. If we start averaging over 5 shots ON target instead of just under 3, then we'll more than likely score more.
My point on Andy is that he's not scoring. He's fluffing his lines. He's really struggling but he's still playing. Now Lambert needs to address this. He's shown he's not frightened of dropping players, as Lowton and Westwood can testify. I also think it's for Weimanns benefit too. He needs to sit things out. Watch the games from the sidelines and just get himself champing at the bit to come back at full force.

As for stats sources, you need only use google, or whichever match report of choice, but we do average between 2-3 shots on target. We got 2 shots on target yesterday for example. And I agree to an extent your comparison about Tekkeys chance against the post compared to a Heskey style daisy cutter that goes straight at the keeper, but if you miss the target you won't score. We're not creating enough clear cut opportunities, nor hitting the target enough when we do. That's not based on guessing or inventing stats, that's based on fact. Watching the games.

Offline Ian.

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Re: Is this what transition looks like?
« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2013, 12:42:32 PM »
Good post TV. Its a very good analysis of what is happening at Villa Park.

I do find myself on the football forum less and less and stick to off topic as I struggle to read through so many posts which are written after a loss or a draw which are "sack for the manager" or "If this was TSM or hell would break out" last night I saw something along the lines of if we have not improved by Christmas get rid of him.

The manager has had a huge task to undertake in removing the old regime  with their huge wages as well as trying to adopt a completely different way of playing. I think part of the problem is we finished so strong last year some fans thought we had become a top 10 club (even higher) during that period. If we would have had some luck against Chelsea and Everton we would be level with Man Utd.

Its early days yet and there are improvements in some parts of the field and maybe a little less in other areas. However quite a few new faces have come in and they need to adjust to this league and the players around them. I'm quite surprised our goals have dried up but that will change I'm sure.

I'm still completely behind Lambert and still have faith in this plan. Its not going to happen overnight.

Offline saunders_heroes

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Re: Is this what transition looks like?
« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2013, 12:47:51 PM »

I'm still completely behind Lambert and still have faith in this plan. Its not going to happen overnight.

How long do you give him? Surely even his most ardent supporters have some kind of cut off point?

Offline Ad@m

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Re: Is this what transition looks like?
« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2013, 12:52:08 PM »
That's not really a contradiction that was merely playing the IF game.  I appreciate that it only takes one chance to win a football game of course, but you better your chances of scoring by creating more chances. If we start averaging over 5 shots ON target instead of just under 3, then we'll more than likely score more.
My point on Andy is that he's not scoring. He's fluffing his lines. He's really struggling but he's still playing. Now Lambert needs to address this. He's shown he's not frightened of dropping players, as Lowton and Westwood can testify. I also think it's for Weimanns benefit too. He needs to sit things out. Watch the games from the sidelines and just get himself champing at the bit to come back at full force.

Scoring goals is part ability, part form, and part confidence.  Andi's got the ability - he's shown it in the past.  He's obviously off form as he'd have scored more this season if he was on form.  But if you drop him now what does that do to his confidence?  He's still getting the chances - sooner or later they will start going in.

Aaron Ramsey was getting absolutely slaughtered by Arsenal fans not so long ago.  Look at him now.  Last night on MOTD they asked him what had changed to mean he was suddenly scoring all these goals - his response, confidence.

Maybe it's because I've seen this all before that I can have more patience with the players and the manager but tinkering with everything, whether that's the players, the formation, the manager, whatever, isn't the way to bring about consistency.

Offline garyshawsknee

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Re: Is this what transition looks like?
« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2013, 01:10:07 PM »

I'm still completely behind Lambert and still have faith in this plan. Its not going to happen overnight.

How long do you give him? Surely even his most ardent supporters have some kind of cut off point?

Its not 18 months though.

Offline Toronto Villa

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Re: Is this what transition looks like?
« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2013, 01:11:58 PM »

I'm still completely behind Lambert and still have faith in this plan. Its not going to happen overnight.

How long do you give him? Surely even his most ardent supporters have some kind of cut off point?

I'm not one his most ardent supporters but even I'd give him more than 2 seasons. I know this comparison gets rolled out more often than it probably should but Moyes got 10 years at Everton. He certainly didn't fix things in his first two years. While he won nothing, over the course of those years he built a very solid and deep squad. Somebody mentioned on the match thread yesterday about Martinez and the job he was doing. His starting point was so much different to Lambert's and significantly better. And in that time Moyes was at Everton he made numerous bad purchases in amongst his various good ones. And in that time Everton spent many first half of seasons in the bottom half, and on occasion in the bottom three.

I know the football has been poor at times but it's much more organised and resolute. What we need to see improve is the quality of our passing and ball retention and start to take the chances we have created. Amd ironically Everton last week was a perfect example of how not taking chances at the PL seperates teams. We're struggling in an area we were good at last season while improving in an area we were terrible at.

Offline supertom

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Re: Is this what transition looks like?
« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2013, 01:18:20 PM »
That's not really a contradiction that was merely playing the IF game.  I appreciate that it only takes one chance to win a football game of course, but you better your chances of scoring by creating more chances. If we start averaging over 5 shots ON target instead of just under 3, then we'll more than likely score more.
My point on Andy is that he's not scoring. He's fluffing his lines. He's really struggling but he's still playing. Now Lambert needs to address this. He's shown he's not frightened of dropping players, as Lowton and Westwood can testify. I also think it's for Weimanns benefit too. He needs to sit things out. Watch the games from the sidelines and just get himself champing at the bit to come back at full force.

Scoring goals is part ability, part form, and part confidence.  Andi's got the ability - he's shown it in the past.  He's obviously off form as he'd have scored more this season if he was on form.  But if you drop him now what does that do to his confidence?  He's still getting the chances - sooner or later they will start going in.

Aaron Ramsey was getting absolutely slaughtered by Arsenal fans not so long ago.  Look at him now.  Last night on MOTD they asked him what had changed to mean he was suddenly scoring all these goals - his response, confidence.

Maybe it's because I've seen this all before that I can have more patience with the players and the manager but tinkering with everything, whether that's the players, the formation, the manager, whatever, isn't the way to bring about consistency.

I think the difference with Ramsey is that because Wenger will always rotate his squad, Ramsey would tend to get rested here and there. Weimann is playing every week at the moment. I think there's sometimes a benefit to sitting out of a game. It gives you a chance to be outside looking in and it reminds you that you've got to hit certain levels to be out there on the pitch. I mean Tonev showed a lot of desire and really looked up for it in the last two games. He wasn't fantastic but he was raring to go and seemed to relish being out on the pitch. At the moment Andi doesn't seem to be enjoying it because he's struggling and I think he's a bit worn out too.

Again in part I don't think it's purely his lack of goals effecting his confidence, it's being played on the right. I actually thought he did okay yesterday and was unlucky with his two chances. Again, the Morrison thing, on another day we might have got that decision. Much like the City game, Weimann just looked more effective through the middle. If we give him a run in the middle, playing just of Benteke, I think he'll be all the better for it. He's not a wide player. He was filling a gap last season, but long term he's going to play through the middle. Not only that, he's likely to get more chances playing through the center. He gets a little lost on the right sometimes. Drifts out of games. That possibly effects his confidence even before getting and missing a chance will. So Lambo does need to make it easier on the lad. I'd honestly see him as a better successor as our main striker as Kozak or Helenius, when Benteke leaves, to be honest.

It's also not just Andy's confidence we should take into account. There's players waiting in the wings who probably aren't having a brilliant time on the bench.

That said given we have a break after Cardiff I would persist with Weimann for the next game. It's a good chance to put one away against a side who a struggling. I really thought he'd kick on after the Man City game but it didn't happen. He could do with scoring one off his arse or something. Ditto Gabby. He couldn't hit a barn door right now.   

Offline supertom

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Re: Is this what transition looks like?
« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2013, 01:20:13 PM »

I'm still completely behind Lambert and still have faith in this plan. Its not going to happen overnight.

How long do you give him? Surely even his most ardent supporters have some kind of cut off point?

I'm not one his most ardent supporters but even I'd give him more than 2 seasons. I know this comparison gets rolled out more often than it probably should but Moyes got 10 years at Everton. He certainly didn't fix things in his first two years. While he won nothing, over the course of those years he built a very solid and deep squad. Somebody mentioned on the match thread yesterday about Martinez and the job he was doing. His starting point was so much different to Lambert's and significantly better. And in that time Moyes was at Everton he made numerous bad purchases in amongst his various good ones. And in that time Everton spent many first half of seasons in the bottom half, and on occasion in the bottom three.

I know the football has been poor at times but it's much more organised and resolute. What we need to see improve is the quality of our passing and ball retention and start to take the chances we have created. Amd ironically Everton last week was a perfect example of how not taking chances at the PL seperates teams. We're struggling in an area we were good at last season while improving in an area we were terrible at.

If we have another poor run like last xmas-Jan then his position would probably have to be seriously considered. That said, I don't expect anything close to that horrific again and our defence does appear to be on the right track now.

Offline garyshawsknee

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Re: Is this what transition looks like?
« Reply #25 on: November 03, 2013, 01:25:44 PM »
If you look at results in 2013, post January we have been a comfortable mid table team, if 2014 has a big dip in form and we are involved in last day of the season shenanigans then we would have to review his position in the summer. But with our inexperienced young squad, and lack of transfer funds i cant really see who we would be able to attract to the club who would have superior abilities than Lambert.

Offline eamonn

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Re: Is this what transition looks like?
« Reply #26 on: November 03, 2013, 01:31:23 PM »
Re taking Weimann out of the firing line, I'm not sure we have a choice. Didn't he do his hammy yesterday? So he could be out for a few weeks.

Offline KevinGage

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Re: Is this what transition looks like?
« Reply #27 on: November 03, 2013, 02:28:25 PM »
We've been in transition, alright. 

In the last four years we've transitioned from being a good team to a bad one. ;)

In all seriousness, there is improvement. 

PL got pelters for our dire defensive form last year and brought in a defensive coach. That to me illustrates he is big enough and honest enough to admit he doesn't have all the answers.  What works at one club won't automatically carry over into another.

Many older managers take the viewpoint that "this has worked for me in the past, I'll stick to it."   Karsa and Culverhouse have followed him to his last two clubs, but PL strikes me as ruthless enough to get shot of either if he doesn't get the type of player or style of play he's looking for.  It won't (hopefully) just be a case of jobs for his mates, regardless of performance.

If there are concerns about our ball retention now, that's Culverhouse's remit.  Of course, Lambert is ultimately responsible. But he seems to be the traditional manager (in some respects), someone who oversees the whole thing, rather than a hands on tracksuit manager/coach taking training drills.   

Offline PaulWinch again

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Re: Is this what transition looks like?
« Reply #28 on: November 03, 2013, 03:17:31 PM »
I think it's clear enough to see that the creative side of our team needs a lot of work and we need quality going forward.

Offline eastie

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Re: Is this what transition looks like?
« Reply #29 on: November 03, 2013, 03:22:51 PM »
We've been in transition, alright. 

In the last four years we've transitioned from being a good team to a bad one. ;)

In all seriousness, there is improvement. 

PL got pelters for our dire defensive form last year and brought in a defensive coach. That to me illustrates he is big enough and honest enough to admit he doesn't have all the answers.  What works at one club won't automatically carry over into another.

Many older managers take the viewpoint that "this has worked for me in the past, I'll stick to it."   Karsa and Culverhouse have followed him to his last two clubs, but PL strikes me as ruthless enough to get shot of either if he doesn't get the type of player or style of play he's looking for.  It won't (hopefully) just be a case of jobs for his mates, regardless of performance.

If there are concerns about our ball retention now, that's Culverhouse's remit.  Of course, Lambert is ultimately responsible. But he seems to be the traditional manager (in some respects), someone who oversees the whole thing, rather than a hands on tracksuit manager/coach taking training drills.   

I believe karsa is his brother in law but it's not a jobs for mates thing - they have been with him a long time and he clearly trusts them - can't see anyway he would get shot of either to be honest .

Any manager should have the total control of who his backroom staff are and I think lambert is happy with the set up .

 


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