Is this what transition looks like?

[Toronto Villa]

So you've heard the saying Lies, damn lies and statistics. I know that some will say that numbers never lie, and then others will say they never tell the whole truth. I find myself in the second camp in most things. After today I thought I'd look at some numbers to see if there is any real sign of improvement being made, or if things are as they seem and the road ahead appears long and weary.

When Lambert sits down with his staff they look at more than the aesthetic value of our play. Moreso than a fan would I imagine. Here are some things I found interesting.

The obvious:

The first 10 games this season, W3, D2, L5, F9, A12, GD -3, Pts 11
Over the first 10 games last season: W2, D3, L5, F8, A 14, GD -6, Pts 9

The two starts are not that disimilar in terms of points gained. Obviously 2 extra points, GD is better by 3, we've scored 1 more goal and conceded 2 less. We've played well at times this season and had some excellent results. Arsenal was well deserved, should have got more from Chelsea, Man City an excellent second half. Last season of the first 10, only Swansea at home stands out performance wise to match the result.

The glass half full perspective is as follows in terms of recognising progression:

Taking out the game against Hull City because we didn't play them last season, we have 10 points from 9 games. Taking the position that all teams have tried to improve, in the corresponding games last season our record is as follows:

W1, D0, L9, F6, A24, GD -18, Pts 3

Our record this season vs last season against the same teams in the corresponding fixtures provides us with 7 more points, 3 more goals, 12 less goals conceded and an improvement in GD of +15.

When I hear Lambert praising the team, recognizing hard work and effort I think he also crediting improvements over last season. I think what we are seeing is a team in transition. One that was way too liberal last season with giving the opposition space and time. Conceding stupid goals from comedy defending. I'm not for a minute saying that hasn't happened at times or won't happen but the instances are down. Last season conceding a corner almost guaranteed a goal. You can't say that this season so readily.

If there were two things we all wanted to see this season in terms of progression it would have been first and foremost an improvement in defending. We've seen that. We have been better. It still needs to improve but it is better because it was chaos last season. This season we are more solid and organised than last. The other thing was midfield creativity. That hasn't been solved and I believe that it will be the highest priority in the next few windows. Not only now to provide chances for the existing forwards but also to address the post Benteke era where Kozak appears to be the successor.

This post isn't about being positive. It's more about a sense of perspective. We've taken a direction where we are going to spend conservatively while we still have large contracts on the books. That the club will continue to give young prospects a chance as opposed to established players. While that is a risky strategy, it doesn't offer any guarantee that we would be any better off. Look at Fulham as a comparison. We need a blend of both but it appears we might consider that once we permanently relieve ourselves of Given, Bent, Hutton, Ireland and N'Zogbia who still represent the good part of £300,000 a week.

My own conclusion as tough as it might be to watch at times this season we are going to become a bit more dour in an attempt to tighten up as a unit. The chances are being created, they just haven't been put away. We haven't been as clinical, and Gabby and Andi haven't been close to the form they showed at the end of last season. That will need to change if we are to start being efficient again up front because opponents will simply key in on Benteke all the time. He can't do it all himself.

We will improve but I think it will be much more steady and much less volatile than last season. We will be harder to beat and defeats will rarely be as spectacular as some of last seasons efforts. I also believe in games where we are leading we won't fall apart as we did last season and we will close games out better. The next few games, though important won't define our season but will continue to offer clues as to how quickly we can move through this period of transition.

[eamonn]

Good analysis though I wouldn't quite agree that the chances are being created. If we're relying on scoring from every chance we make, then I guess so. Realistically though, most teams manage to fashion a healthy number of openings (over five, as an estimate) in each game. We struggle to match that because of our poor possession stats (lowest/joint lowest in the league I believe, this season. Granted, we've played the top teams who you'd expect to dominate territorially) meaning that we curse the few chances missed that we do manage to make for ourselves. Moreso because they largely come on the break when the player who misses the chance generally has a bit more time and space to put it away. 

One other point, if we are to continue to give unproven players their heads, I do wish we could then try a creative player. Be it Carruthers, Helenius, Grealish, Tonev getting more time or someone else as it's the one area where there is a clear need for someone.

[Steve R]

I am not sure we can claim to be in transition or not. If the path from now on is one of getting better at what we are currently doing, it isn't transition. That is what is starting to be a worry.

Yesterday's game was straight out of the O'Neil 'how to blag your way into being a better class of also ran' handbook. Ugly stuff.

Lambert needs to demonstrate that he thinks Villa can be better than that. Then we'll be in transition.

[McGraths Dry Cleaning]

I think we've transitioned - the plan at VP appears to be survival whilst keeping the wage bill low or am I missing something? We have tightened up (but from a very low point) and when our first choice 11 are fit we can play some entertaining stuff and get results but the squad has no depth (and the first 11 are thin enough already). I assume the financial issues from the MON era are now mainly worked through but maybe there is still some fiscal drag at work and in one of the transfer windows PL is going to surprise us with a couple of top signings.

[Matt Collins]

I still think last years accounts showed quite a lot of subsidy from Lerner? He may want some of his money back at some point too . . ?

[Rigadon]

Didn't see the game yesterday but assume it was limited entertainment.  That's it really for me,  I want to be entertained.  If this IS what transition looks like, let's hope it happens sooner rather than later. 

We have an honest manager, honest players.  A young team with plenty of goodwill from the fans.  That can all change if we don't turn into something more entertaining after a while. 

[olaftab]

A very good post however the same team result comparisons are futile. After our good form from February onwards others teams have learned and counteract our tactics quite successfully. Time now for manager and players to kick on. If the players can not adapt than they are not good enough and if the manager can not do anything about it than he is not good enough. They require time to fix this.

[Ads]

Can you frame that against Spurs net spend please TV?

In all seriousness it is the middle segment of stats which is the most telling and is proof for me that we are a better outfit.

[eastie]

Can you frame that against Spurs net spend please TV?

In all seriousness it is the middle segment of stats which is the most telling and is proof for me that we are a better outfit.

Lets wait until January when we have played each team and see how we compare at that stage.

[Pete3206]

Transition? More like pissing in the wind. Not a criticism of Lambert, it's just that without major investment in quality players, we'll never be better than we are now.

[Mister E]

A very good post however the same team result comparisons are futile. After our good form from February onwards others teams have learned and counteract our tactics quite successfully. Time now for manager and players to kick on. If the players can not adapt than they are not good enough and if the manager can not do anything about it than he is not good enough. They require time to fix this.

But isn't that part of what TV was saying? - that we've done better than last season almost despite (i) other teams sussing us out and (ii) other teams having invested more aggressively than us.

I think we are definitely 'in transition'. Last season was a major shock to the system as PL turned his back on the high-rolling experienced players he inherited: consider, for a minute, what a gamble that was, and yet he managed to just about pull it off.
This season, he is continuing that process, with just as much of a gamble about it: 7 new players in, of whom we'd really only heard about 1 (he who now warms the rehab couch). As per last year, some of these purchases look a bit dud, so we are still very much in the work-in-progress stage.
When he has offloaded the final remnants of the GHou / TSM eras - Bent, Ireland, Given, N'Zog and Hutton - he will have more flexibility in signings. The massive question for me is: does he recognise those areas of the squad that require significant investment in talent and experience?
Until he invests in these critical signings we won;t know whether the transition has moved us into a competitive situation or an also-ran position in the Premiership.

That's transition.

Good OP, by the way, TV.

[Billy Walker]

In answer to Toronto Villa's excellent post, yes, I think this is what transition looks like. Steady improvement and movement up the table is all I'm looking for at the moment and I want to see that the rot of the past couple of seasons - the stench of mismanagement, relegation and chaos - has been removed from the club. Lambert is quietly, without fuss, getting it done.

[Matt Collins]

A very good post however the same team result comparisons are futile. After our good form from February onwards others teams have learned and counteract our tactics quite successfully. Time now for manager and players to kick on. If the players can not adapt than they are not good enough and if the manager can not do anything about it than he is not good enough. They require time to fix this.

But isn't that part of what TV was saying? - that we've done better than last season almost despite (i) other teams sussing us out and (ii) other teams having invested more aggressively than us.

I think we are definitely 'in transition'. Last season was a major shock to the system as PL turned his back on the high-rolling experienced players he inherited: consider, for a minute, what a gamble that was, and yet he managed to just about pull it off.
This season, he is continuing that process, with just as much of a gamble about it: 7 new players in, of whom we'd really only heard about 1 (he who now warms the rehab couch). As per last year, some of these purchases look a bit dud, so we are still very much in the work-in-progress stage.
When he has offloaded the final remnants of the GHou / TSM eras - Bent, Ireland, Given, N'Zog and Hutton - he will have more flexibility in signings. The massive question for me is: does he recognise those areas of the squad that require significant investment in talent and experience?
Until he invests in these critical signings we won;t know whether the transition has moved us into a competitive situation or an also-ran position in the Premiership.

That's transition.

Good OP, by the way, TV.

I just don't think we know yet. We've done better in comparable games. That's great. It's just that we haven't had many of the comparable games against the sides we were beating at the back end of last season. So the negative way of looking at it is that to actually be better than last season we need to mirror those results and win against all those sorts of sides.

I think we just need to wait and see.

[supertom]

I prefer to compare with the tail end of last season where it appeared we were moving forward and looked a really threatening attacking unit. So far this season our attacking play has been largely poor. Teams have worked out how to keep us quiet. Gabby and especially Weimann are struggling. Benteke hasn't been at his best even when he's not been injured.

Again, we seemed to find a way that suited us last season. Lambert hasn't really kept that going because it only seemed to work with the line up he eventually adopted last term. Sylla can't get a look in now. Westwood's dire second season form hasn't helped either, as he's supposed to be the playmaker.

So at the moment we seem to be in that situation we were for much of last season, where Lambert is unsure what his best side and formation is. We've taken a step back again. We're not as bad as what he inherited and our defence looks more solid.

I also think that Lamberts initial notion that we will be a side who attacks first and thinks of defending second is disappearing somewhat. This kind of ideal where we'd expect to be winning games 3-2 or losing them 3-2. I think perhaps he's realised you can't set yourself up like that at this level. You don't set up just trying to score more than the opposition. Stopping them from scoring is also important.  So we have worked hard to solidify the defence somewhat. I'd expect a few more clean sheets over the season two. Vlaar has settled. Clark has vastly improved. Bacuna looks good. I like Tony Moon. He's certainly an improvement on Bennett, even despite some positional deficiencies.

Defensively we have made progress.

Offensively I think we've regressed since the tail end of last season. That's in part to poor form from key players like Westwood and Lowton who helped keep the ball better and make things happen. It's also down to this continued use of Weimann as a right sided forward. He did okay last season but he was filling a gap. It now seems to be that he's seem as a wide forward now but it's not his game. He's not a brilliant dribbler, and his touch is poor so long term he can't play that and it's effecting him. In addition he's also having a terrible time in front of goal. He blows at least one good chance a game. Had he taken them all he'd be up their with Sturridge in the scoring charts and we'd probably be in the top 6, but he's not. He needs a spell out the side.

But our attack has to improve a hell of a lot. We could say we had chances yesterday but we didn't create nearly enough. If you have no one clinical in the side (Tekkey is still off the boil and isn't his normal deadly self) then you can't rely on 2-3 chances a game. Right now we average just UNDER 3 shots on target a game. 3. That's awful. I don't buy that we were unlucky against Everton, or Liverpool for example. We didn't create nearly enough for games at home. Those results were fully deserved. They took their chances and kept us quiet. Solid, professional away performances. No complaints at all. The fact is if you don't hit the target your chances of scoring at 00.001% (unless you get a blind linesman like the odd phantom goal we've seen in the past couple of years). Again this has to improve so it means buying quality in midfield and also working on adding a bit more consideration and composure to our play. Not shifting from 0-100mph and hoping for the best. We're unsightly for 90% of the time playing at full pelt. Occasionally a move comes off but only occasionally. You can't play at full whack all the time. Sometimes you've got to slow it down and measure what you're doing. Honestly sometimes when we play we look like sugar charged kids in a playground. I half expect a couple of our lads to just start windmilling and having a schoolboy scrap. All too often it looks like thoughtless, mindless running and manipulation of the football seems like a distant thought.

It took Lambert a long time to find a plan which worked. That he's again looking for another one is a worry.

[placeforparks]

i stood there yesterday and all i could think of was this scene from the simpsons:



wish i hadn't brought tickets for fulham. that'll be another stinker.