On-going progress..

[Witton Warrior]

I think the performance level of the first three games was a higher than anything we saw last season (even though we lost two of those games).  Newcastle was awful and then we reacted well to get a good win at the weekend. 

I feel that although we will be a threat away from home, a total re-think on the way we approach home games is needed.  If Benteke is injured for a while, it may mean that we will have to change our style.  I'm still not sure we have sorted the problems we had last season at full-back, though part of that could be the fact that they are left exposed at times.   

I think that we have an opportunity to try something other than "Guzan-to-Benteke"...

[Irish villain]

We will have 40 points after 30 games. Anyone wants to bet against that?

I agree with you.

[Concrete John]

I think to say we haven't made progress is very unfair based on what we have seen so far. I also think it is very unfair to suggest we are very inconsistent and we are still terrible at the back. So far we have played well in 4 of the 5 games and the defence only looked shakey in that game too. It's too early to say we have turned a corner but the signs are there. If we take 7 points from our next 5 that would be a good return and should see us around 10th, ready to kick on with a decent run of fixtures up until Chrismas.

I guess this depends on your definition of 'played well'. A lot was made of the Chelsea performance and us being plucky losers, but we didn't have a shot until Benteke scored just before half time. The first 45 against Liverpool was as BAD as anything we've seen over the previous two seasons and Newcastle was turgid. There's no way Saturday's performance was anything above average either. So what are these great performances and signs of improvement ?

Well to my eyes anyway. Mind you one of our regular gang sees nothing but good things either.

Chelsea away is a tough match, so you have to make allowances for the quality of the opposition.  They started the stronger, but we grew into the game and were good value for at least a point, which we didn't get due to poor referring.  Compare it the game there last season and it can only be viewed as progress.

Liverpool was a poor 30-45 minutes and then pretty decent 2nd half.  We can have no complaints about the result in the way we did at Chelsea, but again a more than decent side who we aquitted ourselves well against.

Newcastle was poor - no argument from me there - but then we did what we proved unable to do last season against Norwich, which is win when not being at our best.

Things are far from perfect, and will continue to be for a couple of years yet with the approach we're now taking, but what we've seen so far does warrant some optimism.  Unless we start throwing money at it again, we have to go through the growing pains of a young side developing together. 

Contrast us to someone like Fulham.  They buy established players just past their best (Berbatov, Riise, Duff) and aim for midtable with an outside chance of Europe.  They'll always be around that level, unless they balls it up, never being able to get any higher, but also with no real fear of relegation.  Stoke are similar.  We could do that also, and some would argue that's what we were under MON, but that glass ceiling will always be there.  With Lambert we're trying another approach, which is basically one step back in order to take two forward.  We were behind the Fulham's of the league last season, I think we'll be around them this year and then overtake them in years to come, as our players improve in ways they're presently better established ones can't.  And even if we lose some of them, we'll make a healthy profit on them and then reinvest that.

That is, of course, presuming we don't balls it up also!!       

[Clampy]

I think to say we haven't made progress is very unfair based on what we have seen so far. I also think it is very unfair to suggest we are very inconsistent and we are still terrible at the back. So far we have played well in 4 of the 5 games and the defence only looked shakey in that game too. It's too early to say we have turned a corner but the signs are there. If we take 7 points from our next 5 that would be a good return and should see us around 10th, ready to kick on with a decent run of fixtures up until Chrismas.

I guess this depends on your definition of 'played well'. A lot was made of the Chelsea performance and us being plucky losers, but we didn't have a shot until Benteke scored just before half time. The first 45 against Liverpool was as BAD as anything we've seen over the previous two seasons and Newcastle was turgid. There's no way Saturday's performance was anything above average either. So what are these great performances and signs of improvement ?

Well to my eyes anyway. Mind you one of our regular gang sees nothing but good things either.

Chelsea away is a tough match, so you have to make allowances for the quality of the opposition.  They started the stronger, but we grew into the game and were good value for at least a point, which we didn't get due to poor referring.  Compare it the game there last season and it can only be viewed as progress.

Liverpool was a poor 30-45 minutes and then pretty decent 2nd half.  We can have no complaints about the result in the way we did at Chelsea, but again a more than decent side who we aquitted ourselves well against.

Newcastle was poor - no argument from me there - but then we did what we proved unable to do last season against Norwich, which is win when not being at our best.

Things are far from perfect, and will continue to be for a couple of years yet with the approach we're now taking, but what we've seen so far does warrant some optimism.  Unless we start throwing money at it again, we have to go through the growing pains of a young side developing together. 

Contrast us to someone like Fulham.  They buy established players just past their best (Berbatov, Riise, Duff) and aim for midtable with an outside chance of Europe.  They'll always be around that level, unless they balls it up, never being able to get any higher, but also with no real fear of relegation.  Stoke are similar.  We could do that also, and some would argue that's what we were under MON, but that glass ceiling will always be there.  With Lambert we're trying another approach, which is basically one step back in order to take two forward.  We were behind the Fulham's of the league last season, I think we'll be around them this year and then overtake them in years to come, as our players improve in ways they're presently better established ones can't.  And even if we lose some of them, we'll make a healthy profit on them and then reinvest that.

That is, of course, presuming we don't balls it up also!!       

I think that's the best summing up of it so far.

[Monty]

I think the performance level of the first three games was a higher than anything we saw last season (even though we lost two of those games).  Newcastle was awful and then we reacted well to get a good win at the weekend. 

I feel that although we will be a threat away from home, a total re-think on the way we approach home games is needed.  If Benteke is injured for a while, it may mean that we will have to change our style.  I'm still not sure we have sorted the problems we had last season at full-back, though part of that could be the fact that they are left exposed at times.   

I think that we have an opportunity to try something other than "Guzan-to-Benteke"...

Well put, though my fear is that we'll put in Plan B: "Guzan-to-Kozak"

[edgysatsuma89]

I'm strangely much more confident of playing the likes of Man City at home than the likes of Hull. The big teams at home will have a go at us, so we can implement 'away style' into action. Hull won't and we'll look very shit when we can't break them down.

May be delusional as City may score on every attack but hey ho

[dekko]

I'm strangely much more confident of playing the likes of Man City at home than the likes of Hull. The big teams at home will have a go at us, so we can implement 'away style' into action. Hull won't and we'll look very shit when we can't break them down.

May be delusional as City may score on every attack but hey ho

Our home form is bad, but its not so bad that we'll be utterly unable to beat teams like Hull.  Its the mid table sides we'll struggle with.

[paul_e]

I'm strangely much more confident of playing the likes of Man City at home than the likes of Hull. The big teams at home will have a go at us, so we can implement 'away style' into action. Hull won't and we'll look very shit when we can't break them down.

May be delusional as City may score on every attack but hey ho

Our home form is bad, but its not so bad that we'll be utterly unable to beat teams like Hull.  Its the mid table sides we'll struggle with.

Since the start of feb is 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats, poor but not poor enough to be worried about the visit of Hull.

[Irish villain]

Last night was a bit of a wake up call. I just hope we get 40 points on the board asap then I will be sure we have progressed.

It's sickening watch the likes of Southampton, Swansea progress and see Spurs as title challengers.

[Walmley_Villa]

Last night was a bit of a wake up call. I just hope we get 40 points on the board asap then I will be sure we have progressed.

It's sickening watch the likes of Southampton, Swansea progress and see Spurs as title challengers.

All 3 of them have a strategy and are investing to achieve it. We also have one but at a considerably lower budget. Ultimately most teams are scouting the same players and usually money talks on wages etc as Newcastle found out. We are gambling on a few 'cheaper' options who may or may not come off - a high risk strategy in it's own right.

[supertom]

Football is a results business. Some clubs take decades to build up a reputation too. Our rep is that of a club who are almost always in the top flight. We've got a good history of winning things. We have our off moments of course, and we disappear into the safety of anonymity a lot of times to. On occasion we'll scrap up nearer the top. On rarer occasions we're involved in scraps down the bottom, but as things stand those bottom end scraps are becoming all too common. 3 seasons in a row, and we're staring down the barrel of a fourth. We're in danger of just slipping quietly away into nothingness, a bit like Leeds. Granted not with such financially disastrous aplomb, but if we get relegated, then coming straight back isn't foregone.

I'm all for financial stability but we've taken it to an extreme. Randy really has picked the right manager, because Lambert is loath to buy anyone who comes with a reputation. It's not just a lack of money it's also a lack of will to spend a bit more on surer bets.

In an ideal world we'd strike the balance between Lamberts well scouted cheap buys, with O Neill's more extravagant hits like Young, Milner, Petrov etc.

Should we be happy merely to survive in this league? Is top half of the bottom half really an achievement for this club? I know O Neill took us to three 6th placed finishes. I know there's a sense of unfinished business and that we never quite managed to make that extra step up. Similar under Gregory too. However in the recent decades, perhaps that was our level. Certainly I'd take being a top 6 side year in year out over where we are now.

I know Lambert aspires to play good football. It doesn't always work. We've played good football under certain managers over the years, including MON and we've been a better side doing it. We played some great stuff in 07-08 and finished 6th. Scored a shite load too. But here's the thing: Under Lambert we basically struggle at home. We toil, we can't string 4 passes together. We lack a bit of guile to break teams down. We're reliant on one standout player to do something. Away from home we look better. We counter with pace and we attack quick, fast and look like scoring goals.

Is that not exactly how we played under O Neill? The difference being we had better players, and were more effective as a side. We were more resolute too. We score less, we concede (far) more. In my mind all thats really changed is that we've got a poorer quality squad and a more open manager. He says the right things, he has on paper a reasonably good idea. In theory is another matter. I just don't think Lambert has the nous to pull this off. It's a lot like what Fergie did 20 odd years ago by replacing aging stars and bringing through youth players. The difference being, we're talking Fergie armed with the likes of Giggs, Scholes, Beckham etc, whilst still signing top players to supplement his home grown.

I'm all for giving Lambert time. I like him. He's just desperately in need of a decent right hand man and he's got to acknowledge that we desperately need to do something to address a lack of experience and proven quality within our squad. I'm happy to sign players like Westy, Lowts, Sylla etc. As long as we sign players we know can hit the ground running and help bed them in.

From the outside looking in, it does appear though that we have a 3-5 year plan. That plan isn't to become a Champions League side. It's a long term plan to become a solid mid-table side. That's the very best we can expect with what we're doing at the moment. Do we really want to wait that long to be a club that doesn't fight relegation every year?

[richard moore]

Excellent post by Clampy (reply number 32) and a very reasoned, insightful one too. This is what I keep trying to persuade myself will happen and it's good to be reminded of it by you after such a depressing evening last night when my first reaction is to over-react...or maybe not. We shall see. Thank you for grounding things and giving some perspective

[Clampy]

Excellent post by Clampy (reply number 32) and a very reasoned, insightful one too. This is what I keep trying to persuade myself will happen and it's good to be reminded of it by you after such a depressing evening last night when my first reaction is to over-react...or maybe not. We shall see. Thank you for grounding things and giving some perspective

It wasn't me, it was Concrete John but yes it was excellent.

[Ads]

I think we’re progressing.

There seemed to be general consensus that we need to avoid being in a relegation fight again come April and that we should be aiming for as close to 50 points as possible, which would likely put us somewhere from 12-8th.

You can frame that against the clubs achievements over the past 100 years and say its not acceptable, but then having read the post-match Spurs thread, I think there is a real disconnect from the reality of the base we’re working from.

Statistically we’re better off this season. Be that on a match by match comparison or a points per game comparison. We’ve comfortably had the hardest start out of any other club in the league; its laughable to watch the manager of the Champions complain about the programme when we have had the fixtures fall so unkindly, a side that finished 6th from bottom.

Last season from the same set of fixtures we took three points away at Norwich and lost the rest. In the process we conceded 15 goals, 8 of which came in one nightmare defeat.

There is no argument to say the defence hasn’t tightened up, as we have not lost a game by more than one goal and have thus far shipped 6 and scored an equal amount, one more than last season. We have faced improved sides too; Norwich, Newcastle and Liverpool all carry more potency.

Its important to remember that we’re coming from a base equivalent to footballs ground zero. We have truly entered this new era on the bottom rung. The arguments as to why have been done to death and the why isn’t really relevant anymore if you accept the fact that the Villa of May 2012 were at our lowest ebb for who knows how many seasons.

There were some really poor performances last season and we struggled at home, before starting to really click in February; but despite that, without last minute giveaways to Swansea and Everton we would have seen us only four points off the self-titled Pride of the Midlands in 8th, such are the small margins.

I think Lambert has brought in a number of decent players, unfortunately, possibly the best one is now out for the season. The squad is bigger, but there aren’t necessarily any players who can come in and make an impact on the first XI right now; Bacuna at full back possibly being the only one at this point given Lowton’s very poor start.

The likes of Clark are another year older and hopefully wiser; he certainly was against Norwich.

I anticipate that Lambert believes there is enough firepower up front and enough increased knowhow in the squad, to close out a few more games, grind out a few one nils in order to reign that 50 point mark in.

It would certainly help if we had a better way of getting hold of the game at home, which is in the antithesis to just how lethal we are away from Villa Park.

Lambert wanted an attacking midfielder in the summer but didn’t bag his man. I don’t expect us to spend much, if any money at all, in January. I think he sees Spurs as a case in point. Although starting from a top six base, they have brought in six quality players who can play in the first XI on the basis of one player sale. I anticipate that Benteke will be sold for a significant fee in the summer and good luck to him; he’s truly world class and will win European Cups.

It is then that Lambert really needs to inject three or four good quality players, with a few more years of footballing development in them, right through the spine of the side. The sort of players who can take a side from 12-8th back towards the top 6. Proper quality to supplement the likes of Delph, Gabby and Okore rather than reach the potential of those players in a season or two.

It’s a long term plan for a time where everything needs to be yesterday, but Lambert and Lerner are asking supporters to invest in it and I am willing to see it mature.

All this “give it till Christmas” is, in my opinion, hogwash. There is not short term fix for the long term problems of Aston Villa.

[silhillvilla]

Think we are either treading water or going slightly backwards. Tactically lambert appears to have learnt nothing and has stubbornly reverted to a ridiculous narrow formation.