Stats about the last 10 games

[Mister E]

From the BBC Football website:

•      Of the 30 teams to have occupied the bottom three positions with 10 games to go over the last 10 seasons, 21 have gone on to be relegated.
•      Until Wigan's recent escapes, the last time the team in 20th place with 10 games to go survived was in 1996-97. Southampton climbed to 16th.
•      Wigan collected 22 points in the final 10 games of the 2011-12 season - the most managed by a team in the relegation zone.
•      The most places gained in the final 10 games is eight, achieved by Blackburn Rovers as they rose from 18th to 10th in 2001-02.
•      West Ham won 19 points in 2002-03 but remained 18th at the end of the season. No other team has gained so many points and failed to climb out of the bottom three.
•      Norwich slumped from the relative safety of 13th to 20th and relegation in the 1994-95 season - the furthest a team has fallen to finish the campaign in the relegation places in the history of the Premier League.
•      The most places dropped over the last 10 games was by Wimbledon, who slid from seventh to 16th in 1998-99 after picking up just two points over the period. That is the worst points tally over the final 10 games by a team that has survived the drop.
•      On three occasions the same three teams have occupied the bottom three positions with 10 games to go and at the end of the season. In 2000-01 Manchester City, Coventry and Bradford occupied 18th, 19th and 20th at both points, and in 2002-03 there was no change in the placing of West Ham, West Brom and Sunderland. The Newcastle, Middlesbrough and West Brom teams of 2008-09 were the most recent to achieve this unwanted feat.
•      The Sunderland side of 2002-03 is the only one in Premier League history to fail to gain a point over the last 10 games of the season. Unsurprisingly they finished bottom.
•      Only two teams have gained a maximum 30 points from their final 10 games of the season - Manchester United in 1999-2000 and Arsenal in 2001-02.

Stat 8 is interesting: based on 10 occasions we have a 30% probability of taking the drop ... but I'm sure the historical stuff can be twisted to different conclusions!

Full article here

[eastie]

Very interesting post mister E.

[UK Redsox]

I'd need to see some figures for WAR, VoRP, xFIP, EQA and UZR before commenting

[Mister E]

I'd need to see some figures for WAR, VoRP, xFIP, EQA and UZR before commenting

Ha! Well, this is the Beeb, not Statistics for Rocket Scientists.

[cdbearsfan]

From the BBC Football website:

•      Of the 30 teams to have occupied the bottom three positions with 10 games to go over the last 10 seasons, 21 have gone on to be relegated.
•      Until Wigan's recent escapes, the last time the team in 20th place with 10 games to go survived was in 1996-97. Southampton climbed to 16th.
•      Wigan collected 22 points in the final 10 games of the 2011-12 season - the most managed by a team in the relegation zone.
•      The most places gained in the final 10 games is eight, achieved by Blackburn Rovers as they rose from 18th to 10th in 2001-02.
•      West Ham won 19 points in 2002-03 but remained 18th at the end of the season. No other team has gained so many points and failed to climb out of the bottom three.
•      Norwich slumped from the relative safety of 13th to 20th and relegation in the 1994-95 season - the furthest a team has fallen to finish the campaign in the relegation places in the history of the Premier League.
•      The most places dropped over the last 10 games was by Wimbledon, who slid from seventh to 16th in 1998-99 after picking up just two points over the period. That is the worst points tally over the final 10 games by a team that has survived the drop.
•      On three occasions the same three teams have occupied the bottom three positions with 10 games to go and at the end of the season. In 2000-01 Manchester City, Coventry and Bradford occupied 18th, 19th and 20th at both points, and in 2002-03 there was no change in the placing of West Ham, West Brom and Sunderland. The Newcastle, Middlesbrough and West Brom teams of 2008-09 were the most recent to achieve this unwanted feat.
•      The Sunderland side of 2002-03 is the only one in Premier League history to fail to gain a point over the last 10 games of the season. Unsurprisingly they finished bottom.
•      Only two teams have gained a maximum 30 points from their final 10 games of the season - Manchester United in 1999-2000 and Arsenal in 2001-02.

Stat 8 is interesting: based on 10 occasions we have a 30% probability of taking the drop ... but I'm sure the historical stuff can be twisted to different conclusions!

Full article here

According to stat 8 there is only a 30% chance that ALL of the current bottom three (us, Reading and QPR) will go down.

Stat 1 suggests we have a 70% chance of the drop.

[Mister E]

From the BBC Football website:

•      Of the 30 teams to have occupied the bottom three positions with 10 games to go over the last 10 seasons, 21 have gone on to be relegated.
•      Until Wigan's recent escapes, the last time the team in 20th place with 10 games to go survived was in 1996-97. Southampton climbed to 16th.
•      Wigan collected 22 points in the final 10 games of the 2011-12 season - the most managed by a team in the relegation zone.
•      The most places gained in the final 10 games is eight, achieved by Blackburn Rovers as they rose from 18th to 10th in 2001-02.
•      West Ham won 19 points in 2002-03 but remained 18th at the end of the season. No other team has gained so many points and failed to climb out of the bottom three.
•      Norwich slumped from the relative safety of 13th to 20th and relegation in the 1994-95 season - the furthest a team has fallen to finish the campaign in the relegation places in the history of the Premier League.
•      The most places dropped over the last 10 games was by Wimbledon, who slid from seventh to 16th in 1998-99 after picking up just two points over the period. That is the worst points tally over the final 10 games by a team that has survived the drop.
•      On three occasions the same three teams have occupied the bottom three positions with 10 games to go and at the end of the season. In 2000-01 Manchester City, Coventry and Bradford occupied 18th, 19th and 20th at both points, and in 2002-03 there was no change in the placing of West Ham, West Brom and Sunderland. The Newcastle, Middlesbrough and West Brom teams of 2008-09 were the most recent to achieve this unwanted feat.
•      The Sunderland side of 2002-03 is the only one in Premier League history to fail to gain a point over the last 10 games of the season. Unsurprisingly they finished bottom.
•      Only two teams have gained a maximum 30 points from their final 10 games of the season - Manchester United in 1999-2000 and Arsenal in 2001-02.

Stat 8 is interesting: based on 10 occasions we have a 30% probability of taking the drop ... but I'm sure the historical stuff can be twisted to different conclusions!

Full article here

According to stat 8 there is only a 30% chance that ALL of the current bottom three (us, Reading and QPR) will go down.

Stat 1 suggests we have a 70% chance of the drop.

True, you're right!

[villa kicks]

11. The 3 teams with the least amount of points at the end of the season will be relegated from the Premier League. (we only deal in facts)

[regular_john]

Something I posted a little while ago, may as well put it in here if this is to become a stats thread. This was after 24 games.

I've just posted this on VT, thought I'd spread some of the joy here too:

Not to add to the overall grimness of this thread, but I've just had a look at some previous league tables to try and work out what our chances of staying up are. I accept that statistics don't prove everything, but there are trends in the data that can not be ignored.
 
I looked at the league table at this stage in the season for every season in which there have been 38 games (17 in total, going back to 95/96) and compared them to the final table for that season. The key pieces of data I looked at were:
 
- Who had the worst goal difference at this stage in the season?
- Was that team relegated?
- Who had the worst goal difference at the end of the season?
- Was that team relegated?
- Were these teams the same? (i.e. on how many occasions does the team with the worst GD at this stage not have the worst GD come the end of the season)
- Of the teams relegated, how many have come back up?
 
I found the following...
 
In 15 of those 17 seasons, the team with the worst goal difference at this stage in the season (24 games played) was relegated (exceptions were Wigan 11/12 and WBA 04/05).
In 16 of those 17 seasons, the team with the worst goal difference at the end of the season was relegated (exception was Wigan 09/10).
In 14 of those 17 seasons, the team with the worst goal difference at this stage in the season was the same as the team with the worst goal difference at the end of the season
In 9 of those 17 seasons, the team relegated has never come back to the Premier League
 
Conclusions?
 
1. We. Are. (Probably). Fucked.
2. Wigan are rubbish
3. Being stuck in Kent with nothing to do for a month quickly leads to overly complex analysis of football data