How many points will keep us up?

[eastie]

Two of us have both independantly done the bbc predictor and come up with 38 and 39 points, the difference being a win/draw at wigan. Either way, we both had our victories coming against sunderland and Fulham, I had sunderland down on 34 points.
I think that whatever happens, our chances of survival hinge on those 2 games, anything less than 6points and the odds are stacked massively against us. I have everyone from stoke down to sunderland seperated by 3points - the margins for error now are looking so small.......

I had 5 teams finish on 38 matt but I was a bit harsh regarding our results - think  it will be a close run thing but I'm hoping we can put a run together starting at stoke .

[paul_e]

10 points from 7 games should be manageable.

Given that we are currently averaging less then a point a game, I wouldn't bet on it. Games like Fulham/Sunderland at home are the type of game we have been screwing up all season. I'd like to think we can get the 2 wins and 2/3 draws which will probably be enough. But I very much doubt that we will finish the season on 40 points or more.

The problem with this is that the points per game changes to suit the argument you're making.

Over the season we have a ppg of .97 (30 from 31) but in the last 6 matches it's 1.5 (9 from 6) and in 2013 it's 1.09 (12 from 11).

Which of those 3 is more valuable?  The season sees us finish on 37, 2013 on 38-39 and current form on 40-41.  So there's statistical backing to logically predict any of those meaning it's fairly safe to suggest we're going to finish on something between 37 to 41 points (if you could get odds on final points the odds above and below those values would be much longer).

Given that range the sensible betting is to go for 39, which means 3 wins in 7 (or 2 wins and 3 draws).  Looking at the fixtures that looks plausible as well.

Personally I think 39 will be enough as I think at least 1 of the 6/7 involved will get less than that, but I'd like to see a couple of 3-4 goal victories to even out the goal difference still.

[neo_Villan]

Fair point paul_e. I suppose we do have 10 points in our last 7 (since Everton) so no reason why we can't replicate it over the next 7. I am just very skeptical that Villa will do it in the easier and more predicable way.

[Damo70]

I think we need 39. I am looking, like most others are too, at the Fulham and Sunderland games as must win. Seeing as I don't think we will get anything from United or Chelsea that would either mean three draws against Stoke, Norwich and Wigan or winning one of them. Getting an 'early win' against Stoke before it is really do or die time would be massive.

[MONCABA]

I've had a rethink of my original post and now think 38 points is a more realistic figure now.

[Uknowthescore]

I've just done that bbc predictor and had us relegated on 38 points although I did have us to lose to Wigan on the last day, god that game is going to be massive

[silhillvilla]

41 I reckon

[KevinGage]

10 points from 7 games should be manageable.

Given that we are currently averaging less then a point a game, I wouldn't bet on it. Games like Fulham/Sunderland at home are the type of game we have been screwing up all season. I'd like to think we can get the 2 wins and 2/3 draws which will probably be enough. But I very much doubt that we will finish the season on 40 points or more.

The problem with this is that the points per game changes to suit the argument you're making.

Over the season we have a ppg of .97 (30 from 31) but in the last 6 matches it's 1.5 (9 from 6) and in 2013 it's 1.09 (12 from 11).

Which of those 3 is more valuable?  The season sees us finish on 37, 2013 on 38-39 and current form on 40-41.  So there's statistical backing to logically predict any of those meaning it's fairly safe to suggest we're going to finish on something between 37 to 41 points (if you could get odds on final points the odds above and below those values would be much longer).

Given that range the sensible betting is to go for 39, which means 3 wins in 7 (or 2 wins and 3 draws).  Looking at the fixtures that looks plausible as well.

Personally I think 39 will be enough as I think at least 1 of the 6/7 involved will get less than that, but I'd like to see a couple of 3-4 goal victories to even out the goal difference still.

Unfortunately, we don't play QPR or Reading again -and we made hard work of beating them.   In fact, all our games against the two worst sides in the division could have gone either way. 

I genuinely can't call it.   I don't think we're gone, but to constantly need 2/3 goals to get anything from games is too much to ask over the course of a season.   Lessons don't seem to be learned in that regard, so I fear for us.

[ozzjim]

I think we need 40. Winning 3 of the 5 winables and getting a draw in the others. I think we will draw 3, win 2 and lose 2, leaving us on 39 and in the lap of the gods with goal difference relegating us. That is what I think will happen.

Stoke tomorrow is massive. Win it, we give ourselves a great shot of getting 2 more from Wigan, Norwich, Fulham, Sunderland and Chelsea, where we could sneak a revenge win.

[*shellac*]

I still feel 39 will see us save.

[Matt Collins]

39 could well be enough, depending on who the points are against (ie ideally 3 against Sunderland)

I can't remember the last time I was this nervous before a league game. I don't know how I'll cope when we play Sunderland.

If Clark is out, we do lack a bit in terms of height. Only really Vlaar, Baker and Benteke. That could make the case for Sylla startng. I can't see us starting Bowery purely for that reason though. Gabby, Lowton and Bennett are gonna have to man up!

[ozzjim]

Shitting it today, mainly because all the fans of other clubs think Benteke and Weimann will see us safe.

I hope NZogbia comes in today. He has had blinders at the Britania for Wigan before, and we are in NZogbia time as far as survival goes.

[Matt Collins]

I think CNZ has a big role to play. But also as an impact substitute.

We should be able to compete with Delph and Westwood in the middle against Stoke. They don't exactly move the ball quickly. But there is a risk of being outmuscled.

Would he play Sylla and Westwood with N'Zogbia behind Benteke?