How many points will keep us up?

[MONCABA]

I have been having a look at our remaining games.
Trying to be objective and not letting my heart rule my head, I have come up with the following possible results:

Everton - draw
West Ham - Villa win
Arsenal - Villa loss
Man City - Villa loss
Reading - Villa win
QPR - Villa win
Liverpool - draw
Stoke - Villa loss
Fulham - Villa win
Man Utd - Villa loss
Sunderland - draw
Norwich - Villa loss
Chelsea - Villa loss
Wigan - Villa loss

This would leave us finishing our league campaign on 35 points.

Is that enough?

[JUAN PABLO]

f**K    Wigan away could be a decider ;(

[JUAN PABLO]

I can see us losing to Liverpoo but I think Norwich could be the one where we might win.


very suprised If we draw at Toffees

we need 6 wins ;(

[eastie]

No - i want at least 38 points and even then that may not be enough- there will some shock results along the way  by the end of this month  i fear we could be 6 or 7 points adrift .

[Duncan Shaw]

I do think 35 will be enough this year, but I'm not sure we'll get it!!

[neo_Villan]

With Reading and QPR finding form as well as Soton, I don't think that will be enough. 38 points minimum for me (where's McLeish when you need him?).

[walsall villain]

f**K    Wigan away could be a decider ;(

I would take having to win on last day to stay up, can't see us being anywhere near staying up.
normally teams start getting unlikely wins so, no, 35 not enough for anybody

[Irish villain]

Just doing the BBC predictor. You know what might just save us? A lot of the teams around us have to play each other whereas we have a good few games against 'safe' mid-table clubs.

That's the one crumb of comfort. If we can beat West Ham we are still in with a chance. If the teams around us either draw each other in those games or one of them starts to take poundings in those six pointers in February and March we could end up surviving by default again.

I think Reading will be the team to get cut adrift and we'll be in the mix with a few others until near the end of the season. West Ham could end up dropping like a stone.

[Jimbo]

We're unlikely to get anywhere near 35 points.

[paul_e]

f**K    Wigan away could be a decider ;(

I would take having to win on last day to stay up, can't see us being anywhere near staying up.
normally teams start getting unlikely wins so, no, 35 not enough for anybody

but we clearly stand no chance of getting one of those, that appears to be the general understanding, every club in the bottom half is going to go on a run of wins that will see them fly up the table but we're going to lose every game.

For what it's worth if we have 35 points going away to Wigan I believe our destiny will be in our own hands.

[myf]

I think it could be enough this year but I'm doubtful we can get them.  I'm just hoping we can win 2 or 3 and get a load of draws.

I think the away games are our best chance.  We are truly shite at home.

[Irish villain]

Just did the predictor and had us staying up on 36 points after drawing with Wigan on the last day of the season. I had QPR finishing ahead of us on 37. I think I had too many mid-table teams drawing with each other though because Fulham ended up dropping down into the mix and staying up on 37....

[eastie]

I wouldnt fancy us going to wigan  on the last day needing anything .

[PaulWinch again]

I wouldnt fancy us going to wigan  on the last day needing anything .

I'd take it now though.

[supertom]

Don't think 35 will be quite enough. I fancy there'll be enough form from certain teams that the 18th spot will be 37-38 going down.
I also see us struggling to get close to 35. Even 30 points looks a long, long way off.