collapse collapse

Please donate to help towards the costs of keeping this site going. Thank You.

Recent Posts

Re: FFP by Duncan Shaw
[Today at 08:31:47 AM]


Re: Other Games - 2023/24 by Hillbilly
[Today at 08:29:13 AM]


Re: Brian Evans by Scratchins
[Today at 08:23:18 AM]


Re: Ezri Konsa - Aston Villa & England by Hillbilly
[Today at 08:13:33 AM]


Re: UEFA Europa Conference League-Knockout stages (Lille) by algy
[Today at 07:57:27 AM]


Re: FFP by algy
[Today at 07:51:30 AM]


Re: FFP by Rigadon
[Today at 07:24:35 AM]


Re: Aston Villa v Wolverhampton Wanderers Pre Match by Sexual Ealing
[Today at 07:18:33 AM]

Follow us on...

Author Topic: How much are we worth?  (Read 4336 times)

Offline Villa in Denmark

  • Member
  • *
  • Posts: 11935
  • Age: 1024
  • Location: Lost
  • On a road to nowhere
  • GM : 07.09.2024
Re: How much are we worth?
« Reply #15 on: January 28, 2013, 07:57:59 PM »
Genuine questions


- how much has he taken back in interest and "management fees" over the years?

- how do these charges compare to commercial rates?

- are the loans liable to him personally or to the Lerner family trust?


   - is this a possible reason for the abrupt turning off the taps if it's not just on his says so that money is forthcoming? I'm not advocating we should be bankrolled a la Man City, but it could explain the abruptness rather than a more structured / planned turndown?



Offline paul_e

  • Member
  • Posts: 33279
  • Age: 44
  • GM : July, 2013
Re: How much are we worth?
« Reply #16 on: January 28, 2013, 08:16:49 PM »
It is worth noting that our Income has nearly doubled since Lerner came in, not being a business person in the slightest I don't know what difference it would make but I'd guess it will be a big consideration.

Paul fundamentally it has an impact and if relegated it will collapse as most of it comes from Sky  ( dont have the break down ) but ultimately its based on factor of profitablity and future revenue and profit streams.

In the 2011 accounts £54m of a total revenue of £92m was media-based.  £21m was matchday revenue and £17m commercial.  I don't know how much we'd get in parachute payments, or what the media revenue in the Championship is like but I think it's fair to say at least half that £54m media revenue would disappear overnight.

Oh I agree totally, I'm just saying that, if we stay up, the debts are surely largely accounted for by the revenue, purely from an investment point of view, particularly with the new TV deal which will add 30-40m on top of that 54m mentioned.

Out of interest for the first 2 years after relegation that 54 would go down to about 25-30, then 15-20 for the following 2 years before becoming about 8-10 from there on, at least those are the rough figures I've seen quoted, it does depend a little on other factors.

Offline Risso

  • Member
  • *
  • Posts: 84820
  • Location: Leics
  • GM : 04.03.2025
Re: How much are we worth?
« Reply #17 on: January 28, 2013, 08:54:52 PM »
From whats's been said it looks like Randy paid 64 million and has spent around 200 million minus what he has took out in the last few years.
Would I be wrong in thinking that if he was able to sell up for 250ish million he would about break even?

He would, subject to whatever has gone on for the last 18 months, but nobody would ever pay that for the club, especially when we go down.

Offline Legion

  • Moderator
  • Member
  • *
  • Posts: 58253
  • Age: 53
  • Location: With my son
  • Oh, it must be! And it is! Villa in the lead!
    • Personal Education Services
  • GM : 05.04.2019
Re: How much are we worth?
« Reply #18 on: January 28, 2013, 08:55:54 PM »
If (clutching on to straws here).

Offline pestria

  • Member
  • Posts: 509
Re: How much are we worth?
« Reply #19 on: January 28, 2013, 09:14:25 PM »
If we were relegated then we'd be on a par with Leeds whose equity was recently sold for £54m.

I'm not sure what Leeds' debts were rolled up in that transaction.

If we are guestimating then I'd say

(a)
struggling premiership club £150m
upper mid table club (ie what we could be with a sensible bit of investment) £250m

(b)
promotion chasing championship club £125m
going nowhere championship club £75m

Offline rob_bridge

  • Member
  • Posts: 8272
  • Age: 51
  • Location: Shirleyshire
Re: How much are we worth?
« Reply #20 on: January 28, 2013, 09:25:16 PM »
If we were relegated then we'd be on a par with Leeds whose equity was recently sold for £54m.

I'm not sure what Leeds' debts were rolled up in that transaction.

If we are guestimating then I'd say

(a)
struggling premiership club £150m
upper mid table club (ie what we could be with a sensible bit of investment) £250m

(b)
promotion chasing championship club £125m
going nowhere championship club £75m

a - maybe a little overstated
b - more so

Offline Ad@m

  • Member
  • Posts: 12563
  • GM : 23.03.2023
Re: How much are we worth?
« Reply #21 on: January 28, 2013, 09:44:21 PM »
Yeah sorry pestria but I think those figures are wishful thinking.

In the last Forbes valuation 20th place was $280m and we wouldn't be anywhere near that after our last few seasons.

Offline pestria

  • Member
  • Posts: 509
Re: How much are we worth?
« Reply #22 on: January 28, 2013, 11:29:53 PM »
No need to apologise.  I was just estimating based on Leeds.   Of course the figures I quoted assume zero debt, so the amount paid for the equity would be far less if debt needed to be paid off by the purchaser.

Either way, with a sensible bit of investment Lerner could escape with relatively minor losses.  Carrying on with the current suicide plan will lose him around £200m he's not careful.  That is if  he intends selling at some point.....


Offline BC54 VFC

  • Member
  • Posts: 1888
  • Age: 66
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • GM : 29.05.2015
Re: How much are we worth?
« Reply #23 on: January 28, 2013, 11:37:08 PM »
You beat me to it, VCTM.  :D

Offline Tayls_7

  • Member
  • *
  • Posts: 3824
  • Age: 53
  • Location: Lincoln
  • GM : 13.09.2024
Re: How much are we worth?
« Reply #24 on: January 29, 2013, 09:58:27 AM »
1) A billion kazillion.
2) 50p
Are you absolutely certain you've got that first figure completely right Pete? What about the outlay on the plastic flags last week?

 


SimplePortal 2.3.6 © 2008-2014, SimplePortal