The run-in leading up to 2013

[Rip Van We Go Again]

Chelsea arrive back in UK today and then face Leeds (certainly no pushover) on Wed

I'm praying it will go to extra time.

[Lambert and Payne]

Chelsea arrive back in UK today and then face Leeds (certainly no pushover) on Wed - they then play a rejuvernated Villa

I honestly fancy us on Sat - i just can see FSW saying how tired the little loves are

They arrive tomorrow afternoon I think BBC said

[IFWaters]

Statto here.

Yesterdays mauling has only 1 bright lining - we don't have to play Spurs again this season. In a fluke that the fixture computer throws in we have now reached halfway and played spurs twice, everyone else bar Wigan once.

Wigan at home has to be seen as a golden opportunity to pull away from relegation and secure one of the five wins that I think will give us safety (we will get a handful of draws anyway).

Both QPR and Reading have about 5 games left to save their seasons although never rule out Redknapp getting something season-changing in the transfer market.

Frankly its looking like a 3-way fight between us, Wigan and Southampton for the third relegation spot. We play them both at home in the next 2 weeks.

[IFWaters]

Statto here.

Yesterdays mauling has only 1 bright lining - we don't have to play Spurs again this season. In a fluke that the fixture computer throws in we have now reached halfway and played spurs twice, everyone else bar Wigan once.

Wigan at home has to be seen as a golden opportunity to pull away from relegation and secure one of the five wins that I think will give us safety (we will get a handful of draws anyway).

Just checked when that other game against Wigan is. Gulp. Last game of the season
Both QPR and Reading have about 5 games left to save their seasons although never rule out Redknapp getting something season-changing in the transfer market.

Frankly its looking like a 3-way fight between us, Wigan and Southampton for the third relegation spot. We play them both at home in the next 2 weeks.

[IFWaters]

That 'game in hand' vs Wigan.

When is that I wondered?

Oh dear.

Sunday 19th May.

[IFWaters]

Sorry' just to add some stats re 'great escapes'. Two stand out in the last 20 years.

West Ham in 2007, 21 pts from last 11 games. Courtesy Tevez.
Portsmouth, 2006, 20 pts from last 9 games. Courtesy Redknapp.

Makes yamyams 13 pts from last 10 in 2005 look pedestrian.

So in a combination of super stats, given that 38 points is better than average (remember avg is 37.4 in the premier league years with 20 teams) AND that the three escapes above are the most statistically significant in the last 20 years I posit that teams with less than 26 points after 28 games are over 90% certain to be relegated.

[Matt Collins]

That's why January is so crucial. I was pretty confident it would see us pull away, with lots of winnable games including Wigan and saints at home. Now I'm concerned we're heading into it with our squad snd cindidence severely hurt.

[cheltenhamlion]

Wins in the cups will help to pick the team up mind. We don't half need some bodies fit in the next few days though.

[paul_e]

Statto here.

Yesterdays mauling has only 1 bright lining - we don't have to play Spurs again this season. In a fluke that the fixture computer throws in we have now reached halfway and played spurs twice, everyone else bar Wigan once.

Wigan at home has to be seen as a golden opportunity to pull away from relegation and secure one of the five wins that I think will give us safety (we will get a handful of draws anyway).

Both QPR and Reading have about 5 games left to save their seasons although never rule out Redknapp getting something season-changing in the transfer market.

Frankly its looking like a 3-way fight between us, Wigan and Southampton for the third relegation spot. We play them both at home in the next 2 weeks.

Disagree on the last line, I think Newcastle (2 wins in and Fulham(1 win in are just as involved as the rest of us, Sunderland look like they've pulled clear a little now but a few bad results could see them back in the mix as well, West Ham (1 win in 7) aren't picking up many points either and have been going the wrong way in the table for a few weeks.  Looking at the table that's everyone below Norwich, with only really Sunderland and Southampton showing any form.

back to back wins for anyone involved (ignoring QPR and Reading) will make a huge difference to the situation and for what it's worth there's no one in our fixture list until Everton at the start of February that I don't think we can get something from.  Lambert needs to earn his money and get the team morale up for the Wigan match.

[ozzjim]

We have the predicted 9 points that I thought we would despite the last 2 games. Win against Wigan and we will have done well out of the run of games in the first post in fairness.

[paul_e]

We have the predicted 9 points that I thought we would despite the last 2 games. Win against Wigan and we will have done well out of the run of games in the first post in fairness.

Yup, I had us for 9 by this point (I actually only got the stoke and liverpool results reversed as my incorrect guesses) and Iput for a win agianst Wigan.

When I posted that I was confident that 12 points would see us comfortably clear and that will be the case if we get the win, with a 6 point gap behind us.

It's worth noting that, of the sides around us, we have far and away the easiest game this weekend.

Sunderland v Tottenham
Aston Villa v Wigan
Fulham v Swansea
Stoke v Southampton
Arsenal v Newcastle   

I can't see many wins for the others there so a home win could be really important here.

[Irish villain]

That's why January is so crucial. I was pretty confident it would see us pull away, with lots of winnable games including Wigan and saints at home. Now I'm concerned we're heading into it with our squad snd cindidence severely hurt.

Me too. My thinking was 19 points on January 1st, bring in a few experienced heads, and we'd be fine.

[PaulWinch again]

We desperately need to win the Wigan game.