Back/Lay next Villa manager thread

[nigel]

Any odds on Wenger?
Think Arsenal want/need a change.

[Dave Javu]

Made a few quid on last year's market, ending up with a risk-free £60 on a McLeish but I don't have the funds to risk this year so won't be joining in.

I think at this point I'd be looking to back Rodgers at 20, lay Martinez at about 4.6, then hopefully laying/backing at lower/higher prices to create a "green" situation later on - Rodgers at say 12, Martinez at 8. Caveat emptor etc.

Hopefully, there will be a very volatile market again.

Good luck.

edit:

also quite like Poyet (back at 30?), and Curbishley (lay at 12?)

[N'ZMAV]

£10 on Paul Lambert with 888Sport at 5/2 yesterday.

[bob]

Good stuff deej

[McGraths Dry Cleaning]

Laid McCarthy at odds of 6 and hes back up to 8. Not much money on the market so any bets are going to make the odds swing - someone on a chat thread on Betfair was tipping McCarthy so it sounds like an attempt at a pump and dump (not enough interest in this market though I think). I could green out but not worth it - no way would he be in the running. Of the almost £20k on Betfair £8k is on Lambert. £20k is tiny - for example theres is £250k on the 17.20 at Hereford.

[McGraths Dry Cleaning]

If anyone wants some guaranteed I just backed Mick at 9 on bet 365 and laid at 7 on Betdaq

[Duncan Shaw]

Laid McCarthy at odds of 6 and hes back up to 8. Not much money on the market so any bets are going to make the odds swing - someone on a chat thread on Betfair was tipping McCarthy so it sounds like an attempt at a pump and dump (not enough interest in this market though I think). I could green out but not worth it - no way would he be in the running. Of the almost £20k on Betfair £8k is on Lambert. £20k is tiny - for example theres is £250k on the 17.20 at Hereford.

Please can someone explain to me in English what the hell all this means?! 

[Summers]

Me too, please. Someone I know was raving about Betfair because of this system and I just didn't get it, but I'd love to move over from Skybet - if I can get the hang of all this..

[McGraths Dry Cleaning]

Basically Betfair/Betdaq allow you to bet on something happening and also to bet on something not happening - in this case you can bet on Mick becoming the Villa manager and you can bet on Mick not becoming the Villa manager. If you can find a difference in the odds for backing Mick and backing against Mick (called laying) you can make guaranteed money i.e. whatever happens you will earn a profit.

So I backed Mick for £10 at odds of 9 at Bet 365 and if Mick is appointed I win £10 x 9 = £90, profit of £80
I then layed Mick for £12.90 at odds of 7 at Betdaq and if Mick is appointed I lose £12.90 x 7 minus my stake = £77.40

So I make a profit of £2.60

If the opposite happens and Mick is not appointed then I lose my £10 stake at Bet365 BUT win back my stake at Betdaq of £12.90.

So I make a profit of £2.90 (less commission which you pay on the exchanges) which takes it down to £2.60 so I make the same amount on the trade whatever happens. Just google risk free gambling or arbitrage sports.

[oldtimernow]

seems a lot of messing around for such small returns....bit like AM's game plan

[brian green]

What you have to bear in mind is that there are rampers employed to place money to manipulate the market.   Conventional betting where you lay (offer) or take the odds has clearly defined sides.   Betfair betting has layers on one end of the see saw and takers on the other end with players attempting to move the fulcrum.

I suspect that there are rampers at work trying to gets bets on McCarthy.

[Des Little]

Fcuk knows what the hell you're all on about with your laying nonsense.  I simply walked into William Hill, put a tenner on Di Matteo and will pop back in next week to collect my £150.  Simples.

[Bottom Right 89]

There are no end of rampers on the betting forums just trying to move the market and green up - I remember last year when Bob Bradley went odds on, there was no credible source just some bloke called meatloaf talking shit on betfair.

If you can see through the bullshit there are annual opportunities backing and laying the likes of David Moyes, Jurgen Klinsman and Rafa Benitez expect all three to contract in price at some point and then drift like bad odours once talksport and everyone else in the media realise its a hoax. Be warned though it only takes a Mcleish to wipe out weeks of hard work in this game and leave you penniless. On that basis I would not be laying Mad Mick for massive amounts unless you can sport a decent arb like McGraths dry cleaning!

[Dave Javu]

For what it's worth, the big mover on the Betfair market over the last few hours is Rrrrrroberto Martinez, whose odds had drifted to about 18, and has now come in again to 4.3 (you can arb that at several places, but there's not much liquidity at Betfair). Lambert is still the favourite, but has drifted to 3.45 from around evens.

It's something of a small surprise to me that Brendan Rodgers hasn't attracted much interest at all.

There's an arb current available on Kevin Mac - Paddy Power 26 and there's a bit of money available to lay at Betfair at 15.

[McGraths Dry Cleaning]

Paddy's are only accepting bets of a couple of quid on K Mac and you're right re liquidity - lot more money being staked on Liv manager