No smoke without fire: Lerner will sell, if the right offer is made

[kippaxvilla2]

the £130-£150m offer above is ludicrous when you consider the investment he has laid out on top of the original purchase price of £64m.  I'd say he would be looking at more like £200m.  No way will we be ever bought by rich people.  It's Villa we are talking about, it will be a consortium consisting of Brian Richardson,  the Bhatti Brothers, William Dugdale's nephew and Atholl Still.  With Mike Neville installed to replace Faulkner.

[pauliewalnuts]

the £130-£150m offer above is ludicrous when you consider the investment he has laid out on top of the original purchase price of £64m.  I'd say he would be looking at more like £200m.  No way will we be ever bought by rich people.  It's Villa we are talking about, it will be a consortium consisting of Brian Richardson,  the Bhatti Brothers, William Dugdale's nephew and Atholl Still.  With Mike Neville installed to replace Faulkner.

We've already been bought by rich people.

That's the way it looks if you ask - say - Everton supporters.

[pauliewalnuts]

While spurs announce record income based mainly on full grounds for every game, Randy has seen attendances drop by 1000's.

Is this the Spurs who showed their ambition and fought off bids from cash-rich Champions League clubs to sign their best midfield player because they still maintained the determination to challenge for a top four spot again this season?

Compare that scenario with the one facing Villa fans who saw their two most creative and consequently valuable players sold and not adequately replaced.
Spurs maintained a feel-good factor, while Villa went down the opposite road altogether.

In essence you're right but how exactly could villa have kept our better players when we were already overspending and needed transfer income.

It isn't just about keeping your better players, though. Sometimes that is just not possible. Look at Berbatov and Carrick at Spurs.

The important bit is what you do with the money you get from selling them. Re-investing the cash wisely is the productive, forward looking thing to do.

Clawing most of it back whilst continuing to talk about the need to reduce the wage bill and be self sufficient instead is fine if that's what the policy is going to be, but there can't be any pretence that we're being ambitious or growing the club while we do that, because quite obviously, we're not.

That's a pretty difficult plan to sell to people.

[Shrek]

the £130-£150m offer above is ludicrous when you consider the investment he has laid out on top of the original purchase price of £64m.  I'd say he would be looking at more like £200m.  No way will we be ever bought by rich people.  It's Villa we are talking about, it will be a consortium consisting of Brian Richardson,  the Bhatti Brothers, William Dugdale's nephew and Atholl Still.  With Mike Neville installed to replace Faulkner.

How much has he invested? Add together £64 million to the net spend on players and money spent on the club, then take away the money taken out of the club each year, how much is it exactly?

[amfy]

It doesn't say why

A club spokesman said: ‘The owner’s eldest son has been switching schools in America which has meant that Randy hasn’t been able to come over for as many games as usual. But he watches every one live on TV.’

Just how many times has he switched schools? Can't they think of better bullshit than this?

I should imagine it's similar to over here.
When your kid's old enough they change schools, either to high school or university, as a parent there's loads of running about to do. No bullshit, just a fact of life.

What kind of running about? I may not be a parent, but I have two of them. Plus brothers and sisters. I dont remember my folks doing any running about (let alone dropping their business interests) for 4 months each time we changed school.

It doesn't say why the child is changing schools though does it? Maybe the child is being bullied, has been in some trouble, has some special needs that require the family to seek out some specialist education. There could be a lot of things around "changing schools" which require a parent to pay a bit more attention for a while.

...but lets not consider that there might genuinely be a reason for him to put his family first for a few weeks, lets stick to thinking not going to The Villa for a couple of months means you've abandoned them. Of course, that might put a few others of us round here out of the picture too....

[pauliewalnuts]

I don't really see how a situation whereby a child changes schools means that his parent can not find 24 hours at any point in three or four months to go and watch a football match - or, put another way, to tend to the needs of a business he has invested a lot of money into.

If the club are going to respond to nonsense like this, they really should stop and think a bit harder before spouting crud like this.

[Fuse]

the £130-£150m offer above is ludicrous when you consider the investment he has laid out on top of the original purchase price of £64m.  I'd say he would be looking at more like £200m.  No way will we be ever bought by rich people.  It's Villa we are talking about, it will be a consortium consisting of Brian Richardson,  the Bhatti Brothers, William Dugdale's nephew and Atholl Still.  With Mike Neville installed to replace Faulkner.

At a guess I would say that Randy has spent around £80m of his own money since taking over. Whilst he has spent a lot more than that in transfers he has also recouped quite a bit so I'd say his 'net' spend is around £80m. So at £150m he walks away about even.

[pauliewalnuts]

NB - we owe him that money. He hasn't just written cheques and walked away. Most of it is in the shape of loans.

Anyone who wants to buy the club is going to also have to pay Randy that dough back.

[nigel]

I can't believe how many are prepared to take what the media say and accuse Villa of, basically, telling lies.
I don't think that it's a secret that Randy's looking for people to invest in the club. Does that mean he want's to sell? Of course not.
If he want's to sort his lads education out, then that's not a problem.
He obviously trusts his management team, I think we should show a bit of trust too.

[martin]

Not sure about the smoke or the fires, but the idea that anyone wouldn't sell if the price was right is a novel one.

[Mazrim]

NB - we owe him that money. He hasn't just written cheques and walked away. Most of it is in the shape of loans.

Anyone who wants to buy the club is going to also have to pay Randy that dough back.

"We" dont really owe him a penny. He borrowed from one of his assets to finance another because it suited him and represented the best way of doing so. Currently Aston Villa is Randy Lerner for all financial considerations.
If he was to sell he could essentially write the debt off or include it in the sale price, it's up to him.
Yes, the terms of the trust say he has to pay it back from somewhere no doubt but it needn't be at Villa's expense.

But let's hypothesise (it's fun) £150m plus settling any outstanding debts would be (at a guess) about £180-£200m which I think is about right. A business turning over the best part of a £100m must be at least worth that.
The wage bill reductions coupled with the sponsorship deals and increased SKY money must have took a large chunk of any outstanding debts (to the Lerner trust). It has all the hallmarks of preparing a business for sale in my opinion. It's like it's being hoovered for a new tenant.

Just a feeling, it could also be simple belt tightening and pulling in the drawbridge of ambition but Lerner doesn't strike me as the sort to hold on to Villa if it's not competitive (The Browns are a different matter). I'm sure he hinted as much when he took over. So I wouldn't be at all suprised to see him actively courting suitors or investors.

Bias aside, if I was somebody like the Qatari royal family (for instance) were looking at buying a club as a project to have some fun with, use as a PR vehicle, prestigious luxury asset and build (expand) a business empire with relatively low expenditure (in comparison to some other PL clubs, areas) and massive potential, Villa would be high up on the list.
But let's not get carried away. There's nothing but rumours and hearsay and perhaps just pure speculation and fantasy at best. And despite being disenchanted, confused and annoyed with how Villa have acted this last year or so, if Randy wants to keep at it, that's fine by me.

[Risso]

If he was to sell he could essentially write the debt off or include it in the sale price, it's up to him.
Yes, the terms of the trust say he has to pay it back from somewhere no doubt but it needn't be at Villa's expense.

But let's hypothesise (it's fun) £150m plus settling any outstanding debts would be (at a guess) about £180-£200m which I think is about right. A business turning over the best party of a £100m must be at least that.
The wage bill reductions coupled with the sponsorship deals and increased SKY money must have took a large chunk of any outstanding debts (to the Lerner trust). It has all the hallmarks of preparing a business for sale in my opinion. It's like it's being hoovered for a new tenant.

Sorry Maz, but most of that is just wrong.  Obviously I don't know exactly how the loans etc are structured, but just writing them off would have big tax implications for the trust.  Also there hasn't been any reduction in the loans owed to the trust.  The recent cost cutting is more about stopping the £40m+ losses the club has made for the last two years.  From what a couple of people have said, I don't think we've even got to the point where the finances are back in order yet, even after the players sales and reduction in wages.  Be interesting to see what the May 2011 accounts loke like when they come out.

[Mazrim]

How is it wrong? I didn't mean writing debt off entirely, just in terms of a sale. The Lerner trust has to be paid back of course.

But he could use money from elsewhere in his organisation to settle Villas debt. Its not Villa that have borrowed the money its Randy himself essentially. The settlement money he recieved recently for instance. There's nothing stopping him piling that straight back into the trust against what he has borrowed to finance Villa. That's the point, "we" dont owe him a penny because financially, "we" dont exist. Villa is an asset and responsibility of Lerner.

But whilst on that subject, the transfer situation of this year saw Villa pull in something like £20m, then you have the Genting money which I understand to be about £17-£20m and a reduced wage bill, the savings of which could also be redirected towards debt repayments. I reckon (and its just a guess) that any debts have been reduced significantly already. The speed of which has been suprising (to me) which leads me to conclude that either he is in major financial trouble or he's preparing the club for sale.

[Risso]

Maz, I bet you a shiny pound coin that the next set of accounts will have shown the debt increasing, not decreasing.

[Iago]

When do people think the Arabs will be unveiled?