Aston Villa v Newcastle United Post-Match Thread

[Merv]

We need to go with the formation that we started the season with, just substituting Heskey for a midfield player. That's not a dig at Emile, it's just that we need that third midfielder player to give us more strength in that area and to enable us to exert more influence on games. For me, it's three from Petrov, Delph, Jenas, Bannan and Ireland. A midfield triangle.

Then we have two wider strikers/attacking players and a centre-forward.

[Risso]

He played something like 7 times for us, and you and others managed to see all the bad things but none of the good things.  Yes Bannan is good although for me he tries to play the killer ball too often and cedes posession, but so what, why not have both Makoun and Bannan in the squad?

and you in turn, have managed to see something in him in those 7 games that none of Houllier, McAllister or McLeish appear to have seen, which is why none of them played him, despite seeing him training every day.  Do you not think that it's possible that they just considered that he wasn't really cut out for the Premier League?

Yes I spotted that he could pass the ball consistently to other players on our team, something we'd been crying out for for years.   You must have missed that. Houllier saw enough in him to sign him for 6 million or whatever it was.   And I'm sure Houllier saw his excellent performance against Man Yoo.  He only came in January and he was banned for three games after his straight red.      I don't know if Houllier or McCallister was picking the team towards the end,  but maybe whoever it was went for maximim PL experience to ensure our safety. Or maybe it was part of Houlliers rotation policy. I also seem to recall he was injured for some games, although I could be wrong on that.  I'm not convinced McCallister could spot a good footballer if Lionel Messi was sitting on his face.  And McLeish is known to favour a very, shall we say, "British" style  of football.

You might have spotted it, and well done for that, because the actual stats don't back up what you think you saw.

Makoun's pass completion last season was 78%.  This was less than Petrov's at 85%,  NRC's of 84%, Delph's of 83%, and was only marginally better than Bannan's 77% and Clark's 77%.  So, based on the fact that he isn't ACTUALLY any better at keeping the ball than any of our other players (and was indeed worse than some), and that he had a lot less to give in other areas than all of them, I think the decision to ship him out was the correct one.

Stats from the Telegraph site by the way if you want to check.

[pauliewalnuts]

Where are these statistics on the Torygraph site?

Sound interesting, but can't find them.

[Risso]

Where are these statistics on the Torygraph site?

Sound interesting, but can't find them.

They're hidden from of the prying eyes of passing lefties!

[UsualSuspect]

The most worrying thing is that if I as a halfwit can see that the formation is wrong what game is AM looking at

[Risso]

More stats - tackles attempted - tackles won - %

Makoun: 25 - 9 - 36%
Petrov: 72 - 56 - 78%
NRC: 102 - 72 - 71%
Bannan: 17 - 10 - 59%
Clark: 53 - 36 - 68%

[Chris Smith]

The most worrying thing is that if I as a halfwit can see that the formation is wrong what game is AM looking at

Last week half of the site were saying play 4-4-2 and everything will be ok. This week there'll be another favourite theory. The truth is we've had to completely rebuild our midfield and it will take time. We haven't got the balance quite right yet but you don't know how something will work until you try it.

[UsualSuspect]

The most worrying thing is that if I as a halfwit can see that the formation is wrong what game is AM looking at

Last week half of the site were saying play 4-4-2 and everything will be ok. This week there'll be another favourite theory. The truth is we've had to completely rebuild our midfield and it will take time. We haven't got the balance quite right yet but you don't know how something will work until you try it.

I can accept that Chris but for the past season at least we have looked lightweight when playing a 2 centrally and just sit very deep and invite teams onto us.

Surely a manager can see what is happening during the game and change it?

Some of AM's decisions have baffled me, like playing Heskey as a link man and then saying he would be a good centre half.

Like playing bent when he is clearly carrying a knock

The same as playing bannan on the wing I don't get, plus isn't Nzogbia more suited to the left?

[ktvillan]

He played something like 7 times for us, and you and others managed to see all the bad things but none of the good things.  Yes Bannan is good although for me he tries to play the killer ball too often and cedes posession, but so what, why not have both Makoun and Bannan in the squad?

and you in turn, have managed to see something in him in those 7 games that none of Houllier, McAllister or McLeish appear to have seen, which is why none of them played him, despite seeing him training every day.  Do you not think that it's possible that they just considered that he wasn't really cut out for the Premier League?

Yes I spotted that he could pass the ball consistently to other players on our team, something we'd been crying out for for years.   You must have missed that. Houllier saw enough in him to sign him for 6 million or whatever it was.   And I'm sure Houllier saw his excellent performance against Man Yoo.  He only came in January and he was banned for three games after his straight red.      I don't know if Houllier or McCallister was picking the team towards the end,  but maybe whoever it was went for maximim PL experience to ensure our safety. Or maybe it was part of Houlliers rotation policy. I also seem to recall he was injured for some games, although I could be wrong on that.  I'm not convinced McCallister could spot a good footballer if Lionel Messi was sitting on his face.  And McLeish is known to favour a very, shall we say, "British" style  of football.

You might have spotted it, and well done for that, because the actual stats don't back up what you think you saw.

Makoun's pass completion last season was 78%.  This was less than Petrov's at 85%,  NRC's of 84%, Delph's of 83%, and was only marginally better than Bannan's 77% and Clark's 77%.  So, based on the fact that he isn't ACTUALLY any better at keeping the ball than any of our other players (and was indeed worse than some), and that he had a lot less to give in other areas than all of them, I think the decision to ship him out was the correct one.

Stats from the Telegraph site by the way if you want to check.

The actual stats?  One set from the daily Telegraph? The day I believe anything in that rag will be a long time coming.

Most stats only give a part of the picture, and  I'd mistrust any set of stats that said NRC was one of the best passers at the club.  They generally take no account of the number of passes attempted, or the difficulty of the passes attempted.    An analysis like this one

http://astonvillacentral.com/2011/02/passing-wheel-analysis-makoun-petrov-vs-murphy-sidwell/

at least tries to look at the those aspects a bit more.  In the Fulham game (which I confess I didn;t see but in which apparently Makoun was voted MTOM) according to this observer, he had an 84% sucess rate as opposed to Petrov's 82%.  He made 61 successful passes to Petrov's 49.  Perhaps more tellingly, 42 ,almost 70%, of Makoun's passes were into what the statto calls zones one or two, in other words forward passes.  Less than 50% of Petrov's were.  I'd argue Petrov's tendency to pass short, easy and often backwards or sideways leaves a lot less margin for error than the kind and volume of passes Makoun was attempting.  Yet Makoun's accuracy was greater in this example.    He also completed 85 passes against Man Yoo, which is an exceptional amount.  Against one of the best teams in Europe, on their patch, and on his debut in a league that was alien to him.  I recall seeing a similar wheel analysis that showed the bulk of those were forward as well.  Now he may not have been as good in some of the other games he played but just from those two games, isn't there enough there to say there was a player worth perservering with?   A player who might have been able to provide some of the incisive forward through balls we seem so short of, if given a proper chance? 

Incidentally based on your stats he is better at keeping the ball than Bannan, who you are arguing is superior to him. 

[Risso]

The actual stats?  One set from the daily Telegraph? The day I believe anything in that rag will be a long time coming.

Most stats only give a part of the picture, and  I'd mistrust any set of stats that said NRC was one of the best passers at the club.  They generally take no account of the number of passes attempted, or the difficulty of the passes attempted.    An analysis like this one

http://astonvillacentral.com/2011/02/passing-wheel-analysis-makoun-petrov-vs-murphy-sidwell/

at least tries to look at the those aspects a bit more.  In the Fulham game (which I confess I didn;t see but in which apparently Makoun was voted MTOM) according to this observer, he had an 84% sucess rate as opposed to Petrov's 82%.  He made 61 successful passes to Petrov's 49.  Perhaps more tellingly, 42 ,almost 70%, of Makoun's passes were into what the statto calls zones one or two, in other words forward passes.  Less than 50% of Petrov's were.  I'd argue Petrov's tendency to pass short, easy and often backwards or sideways leaves a lot less margin for error than the kind and volume of passes Makoun was attempting.  Yet Makoun's accuracy was greater in this example.    He also completed 85 passes against Man Yoo, which is an exceptional amount.  Against one of the best teams in Europe, on their patch, and on his debut in a league that was alien to him.  I recall seeing a similar wheel analysis that showed the bulk of those were forward as well.  Now he may not have been as good in some of the other games he played but just from those two games, isn't there enough there to say there was a player worth perservering with?   A player who might have been able to provide some of the incisive forward through balls we seem so short of, if given a proper chance? 

Incidentally based on your stats he is better at keeping the ball than Bannan, who you are arguing is superior to him. 

I'm not sure what gain there is to be had from the Telegraph doctoring Makoun's stats, but if it cheers you up, they agree with the Guardian Chalkboard site.

But anyway, it's clear we're not going to agree about Makoun.  What I saw was a limited player, who wasn't very quick, who played lots of short easy passes and who couldn't tackle the skin on a rice pudding.  You may have seen a passer of the ball who was better than our other midfielders, but as I say, the stats don't back that up, and neither the man who bought him, nor his replacement really fancied him, and I can't say that I'm upset to see the back of him.  I don't think he was as good as Petrov, Delph, NRC or Bannan, and seeing as we still have three of those, I can see why he was let go. 

You're maybe right that he was a worth a place in the squad, but in the new Lerner era, anybody not playing that we can get a few quid for is always going to be out of the door fairly sharpish.

[barrysleftfoot]

  After watching the weekend games on Sky , it is obvious that the progressive teams have a midfield that is manouverable, athletic, good on the ball, energetic.Modric, Ramires, Parker, Matta all stood out, all have plenty of energy.We have Petrov, Delph, Herd, Ireland, Jenas, Bannan who can play central midfield.

 Saturday did nothing to change my mind that Petrov should no longer be a 1st team starter, and that if any of the other above named cannot fill the gap, then it has to be the priority in Jan/Next summer.Unless this happens , for me we will never get the best out of Bent, N'Zog, Gabby.

 

[AV82EC]

I have to be honest and say Saturdays game was like stepping back in time to some of MON's dire home draws.  4-4-2, losing posession cheaply, no strength in central midfield, getting pushed further and further back, making the oppositions midfield 3 look like Brazil 70.  It really is just so predictable.  We haven't got good enough players to play a midfield two, we need to play a three in whatever formation works but Barry Bannan needs to be the fulcrum in my opinion not stuck on the wing where he has minimal influence.  Also Bent is quite patently not fit and should be rested particularly as Gabby is on fire at the moment.

[Caiphus]

I think McLeish is trying to teach Delph more discipline and the defensive side of his game so he can be a better all-round midfielder.  I'm sure once Fabian is stronger and more consistent he will be unleashed box-to-box, which will coincide with when Petrov's legs start to drop off from his job atm.

[ktvillan]

What I saw was a limited player, who wasn't very quick, who played lots of short easy passes and who couldn't tackle the skin on a rice pudding. 

Sounds like a perfect description of Petrov to me.  Really don't get what people see in him.

You may have seen a passer of the ball who was better than our other midfielders, but as I say, the stats don't back that up.

Your selection of stats maybe, and I'm not saying they're doctored, just perhaps not put together as as rigourously as they might have been, and as I've said they don't tell the whole story.  The stats I found offer some evidence that  in at least two games Makoun played, his passing stats were excellent and better than Petrov's.

You're maybe right that he was a worth a place in the squad, but in the new Lerner era, anybody not playing that we can get a few quid for is always going to be out of the door fairly sharpish.

As he's only gone on loan we're not exactly getting even a few quid for him. 

You're right though I guess we'll never agree.

[Ryu]

I haven't read all the thread so sorry if I'm repeating points already made...

For me AM's main mistake was playing 442, but to be fair a lot of fans wanted to see it as well.  Our central midfield is easily dominated by stronger players as we saw at goodison, so reducing the numbers in the middle and losing heskey meant we were never going to be able to control the game.
he's brought Jenas in, who I assume he thinks can help this situation. I'm not convinced he can, but of course I'll give him a chance and really hope he improves things.

Other than that I think it was the same story as the rest of the season, defence OK, Given good, Gabby good but the other attacking players not contributing. It seems bad but if the Zog and Bent had put in even half decent performances we would have put newcastle under a lot more pressure and it could have been a different game.

In synopsis, I'm still very worried about our inability to compete in midfield, and Mcleish has to sort this. But he does have good players not performing an the moment, so assuming he can turn that around I'm not getting too depressed yet.