The Dreaded Drop: A Bookmaker's View

[adrenachrome]

An interesting analysis which takes the view that our current form should see us safe from the drop.

Brtfair

Premier League: Signs not good for Blackpool, WBA and Wigan

Not everybody is looking forward to spring... Andrew Clarke assesses the relegation markets and explains why a close look at the fixtures lists should inform your betting on battle to avoid the drop.

One of the most interesting markets in this most unpredictable of Premier League seasons has to be that of relegation. Traditionally the number of points needed to avoid the drop has been set at 40 but no club has needed that many since 2002/3 when West Ham went down with 42. But the signs are that this term the tally will be on the up again, mainly because no side is already doomed.

No side in the bottom half of the table is safe yet, but at this time of year momentum is key so recent form needs to be looked at. By that rationale Fulham and Aston Villa in 12th and 15th respectively can be discounted, having both picked up nine points in their last six games, a total only five teams have bettered over that period, all of whom are in the top six. Blackburn Rovers in 11th haven't been near the bottom yet and that doesn't look likely to change; Everton in 13th have never been relegated from the top flight and despite being just three points above the drop zone they have fared relatively well recently.

That leaves Birmingham City, Blackpool, West Bromwich Albion, Wigan Athletic, West Ham United and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Blackpool are sinking like a stone, although last time out they halted a run of five consecutive defeats by picking up a point at home against Villa. Five of their remaining 12 games are against top five teams and a May schedule of Tottenham Hotspur away, Bolton Wanderers at home and then Manchester United away is tough. Even more telling perhaps is that they only have two encounters with the fellow relegation contenders as outlined here so 2.36 is a very tempting price.

Birmingham are heading in the opposite direction, with eight points in their last six outings. Alex McCleish's men are at Wembley for the Carling Cup final this weekend but after that two of their next three fixtures are home to West Brom and away to Wigan and good results there would see them surge away from trouble. That's exactly what most people expect, according to the odds, and there's very little point in backing them at 5.9 or laying at 6.0.

Midlands rivals West Brom dispensed with Roberto DiMatteo after just three league wins in 16 matches. It remains to be seen what effect Roy Hodgson's appointment will have but a snatched point at home to Wolves on Sunday wasn't a great start especially as it followed the surrender of a 3-0 lead against West Ham in their previous game. The situation is desperate at the Hawthorns and 2.48 to go down is surely too good to miss.

Wolves are bottom and only Blackpool have worse recent form but there is hope for Mick McCarthy's side. Wins over Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea have proved they are capable of big performances and on paper have the easiest run in. They only face one top six team and home games against Blackpool and West Brom will be crucial. Odds of 2.02 for the drop seems fair.

West Ham have been in the bottom three all season save for a couple of days at the end of 2010 and according to the odds are nailed on for the drop at 1.58. Manager Avram Grant's been down amongst the dead men for even longer after his tenure at Portsmouth and they still have to play Manchester United, Manchester City, Spurs, Chelsea and Liverpool but the Israeli has made a habit of springing surprises and something tells me they could be worth laying at 1.64.

The Hammers travel to Wigan on the penultimate weekend for a game that both clubs will be hoping still matters by the time it comes around. With just one win in their last six, the Latics now face Manchester United, Manchester City, Spurs and Chelsea in their next five. By mid-April they could have one foot in the grave and at 1.64 are currently second favourites to be playing championship football come August.

Recommended bets: Back Blackpool and West Brom to go down at 2.36 and 2.38, and lay West Ham at 1.64.

[Chipsticks]

An interesting analysis which takes the view that our current form should see us safe from the drop.

Brtfair

Premier League: Signs not good for Blackpool, WBA and Wigan

Blackpool are sinking like a stone

They just picked up a great 3-1 home win against Tottingham last night that would cause me to ejaculate if Villa had mirrored the achievement.

I think The Tangerine's will stay up due to their general attacking game teams like Tottenham aren't used to fighting against, much to their credit. I reckon that Wolves, Wigan, and West Ham will go down however, as I believe Woy will be good enough to keep the baggies up, and also that Blues have had a far too impressive season at times to go down.

Can't wait to see the back of them either.

It is also very much worth mentioning I believe we should pick up Matt Jarvis to do the "Ireland" role that Stephen himself is so utterly shite at doing; and Hugo Rodellega to help out in hitting the back of the onion sack should my predictions be correct.

[Rip Van We Go Again]

We're still dangerously in the mix, we keep being told how good our players are, now they've got to start performing and proving it. The defence in particular.

Blackburn won't be as easy as the FA cup game.

[Chris Smith]

...momentum is key so recent form needs to be looked at. By that rationale Fulham and Aston Villa in 12th and 15th respectively can be discounted, having both picked up nine points in their last six games, a total only five teams have bettered over that period, all of whom are in the top six.

This is the key; even if we're not doing as well as we would like it is still better than the teams we are competing with.

if we carry on in a similar way for the rest of the season then we'll be fine.

[Woofles The Wonder Dog]

It's very rare I wish a season was over, but I can't ait for a clean fresh start.

[nick harper]

Will feel a whole lot better if we can pick up six points from the next three games as we should do but we really are right in it.

Given how close the bottom of the table has been all season, it would be no surprise if there were no more than half a dozen points between the bottom 8-10 by the end of the season and it would take an upturn in form and results for us not to be one of those. There's a few tense weekends to come.

[KevinGage]

I'd say four points from the next three games is probably more likely -and would actually be quite healthy, based on the season to date.

Less than that would be iffy.
If we were to lose the next three, I think it would be time for RL to take Gerard for a walk around the flowerbeds.

Reckon we'll be OK though. We'll be mathematically involved until the end of the season, but an average of a win a month between now and the end of the campaign and scratching out a few draws shouldn't be beyond us. We'll then face some tough decisions in the summer.

[john e]

will 40 points mean saftey this season ?
 or will it take more as all teams seem to be able to pick up points against the odds from time to time

[glasses]

There was a works charity predictor thing going on at work, which listed the remaining fixtures of Wolves, West Brom, Wigan, West Ham and Blackpool. Idea was to predict results and beat someone elses predictions. Beside the point anyway. Wolves have a pretty decent looking run in. The highest placed team they have left to play is Spurs, at home.

[cdbearsfan]

Everton have been relegated, in the 60s I think. My major concern is our last two games... Arsenal and Liverpool. We need to put a run together to ensure we are at least 5 points clear of the drop going in to those games, that should be enough. This season is mad though, every time I think a team is doomed they get a ridiculous result... Wolves beating Man U and Blackpool beating Spurs being good examples. I reckon West Ham will somehow escape and it will be Baggies, Wolves and Wigan for the drop.

[The Left Side]

I'm still not convinced as we do have a few tough games, but if the bookies are saying we are ok why should I disagree!

[Woofles The Wonder Dog]

will 40 points mean saftey this season ?
 or will it take more as all teams seem to be able to pick up points against the odds from time to time

If I remember correctly (and I may not be, and can't be arsed to check up) it was a season like this, where the top lot disappeared from view and the rest of us shuffled about uncomfortably in a close race for ultimate crapness, that West Ham got relegated with 42 points.

Ouch.

[Woofles The Wonder Dog]

It was 2002/2003. The top were off with the fairies as usual and West Brom (26 points) and Sunderland (19 points and a magnificent -44 goal difference) were so shit that everyone else was clustered together, allowing West Ham to drop with 42.

And thank you Marcus Allback.

[Phil from the upper holte]

My mates an Albion fan and he is convinced their run in will fuck it up for them.  Wolves have a decent run in and I don't think ours is too bad but we must win our home games especially against the Dog heads

[lennythekad]

Everton have been relegated, in the 60s I think. My major concern is our last two games... Arsenal and Liverpool. We need to put a run together to ensure we are at least 5 points clear of the drop going in to those games, that should be enough. This season is mad though, every time I think a team is doomed they get a ridiculous result... Wolves beating Man U and Blackpool beating Spurs being good examples. I reckon West Ham will somehow escape and it will be Baggies, Wolves and Wigan for the drop.

Pedant alert!. Since WW2, Everton have only been out of the top flight for three seasons, 51/2, 52/3 and 53/4.