I don't think 40 points will be enough this season.
On their day, most teams in the bottom two thirds of the table can beat one another, coupled with the fact that there isn't at least one team cut well adrift, means I think whoever is in 18th place will have something like 42 points.
We need four wins from our remaining home games, preferably including Wolves and Wigan. That, and avoiding defeat at Albion and West Ham, will see us home.
What a sad state of affairs.