How many points will we need and can we get them?

[myf]

West Ham were safe on 35 last year, as were Hull in 08/09.  35 weren't enough for the Noses in 07/08 (36 would have been).  38 was enough in 06/07 and 05/06.

I reckon we'll need at least 36 points to secure safety this year with all teams surpassing the 20 mark already.  That means we need at least another 15 points.

Question is can we get them?  Here's my prediction:

Blues (A) Loss
Man City (H) Loss
Wigan(A) Draw
Man Utd (A) Loss
Fulham (H) Win
Blackpool (A) Loss
Blackburn (H) Draw
Bolton (A) Loss
Wolves (H) Win
Everton (A) Loss
Toon (H) Draw
West Ham (A) Loss
Stoke (H) Draw
WBA (A) Draw
Wigan (H) Win
Arse (A) Loss
'Pool (H) Draw

That would give us 36 in total.

[olaftab]

To stay up teams  will need 40 points minimum this year because teams at the bottom have picked up point per game so far this season.  However it's going to be a big lottery with a lot depnding on the last game of the season.

I am confident that we will not be involved in that.

[Ads]

I think we'll beat SHA, Wigan, Wolves, West Ham, Albion, Wigan again, Newcastle and Fulham. I think we'll draw a shedload too and lose to Citeh, Yoonited, Arsenal, Bolton and maybe a few more. I'm only guessing after all.

[Irreverent ad]

36 will be enough. We will get 40-42 points

[Holy Trinity]

we will beat wigan x 2 wba, blackpool and spam, at best it might be enuff

[hawkeye]

i think you have to factor 40 points to be safe, we need six wins as we are bound to draw a couple, unless there is a major turnaround i cant see us getting them

[Goldie.7]

What's worrying is people are classing the last 3 or so games as points needed? If we haven't wrapped it up by then, we probably deserve to go down.

[Smoke]

I'd hope we're safe and out if it by Blackburn (H)

[JJ-AV]

Six wins will do it.

[JUAN PABLO]

Blues (A) drw
Man City (H) Loss
Wigan(A) Drw
Man Utd (A) Loss
Fulham (H) Win
Blackpool (A) Loss
Blackburn (H) Drw
Bolton (A) Loss
Wolves (H) Win
Everton (A) Loss
Toon (H) Draw
West Ham (A) drw
Stoke (H) Drw
WBA (A) Draw
Wigan (H) Win
Arse (A) Loss
'Pool (H) win


19 pts     with the team we have

[Greg N'Ash]

42 i reckon. mebbe 43 . its the goal difference that worries me.

[WALTERS WARRIORS]

Ye goal difference is a big concern. 43-44 is definitely safe ....

[cdbearsfan]

Blues (A) Loss
Man City (H) Loss
Wigan(A) Draw
Man Utd (A) Loss
Fulham (H) Win
Blackpool (A) Win
Blackburn (H) Win
Bolton (A) Draw
Wolves (H) Win
Everton (A) Draw
Toon (H) Loss
West Ham (A) Loss
Stoke (H) Draw
WBA (A) Win
Wigan (H) Loss
Arse (A) Loss
'Pool (H) Draw - win if we really had to to stay up.

I make that 41-43 points.

Safe.

[darren woolley]

I think we are capable of getting six wins from that lot and add some draws too and we should be ok i hope.

[Rip Van We Go Again]

42 i reckon. mebbe 43 . its the goal difference that worries me.

Greg is correct on goal difference, this is the thing that could also fuck us up.
The defence needs to be sorted out and sharpish.
we're giving virtually every side a 2 or 3 goal head start.
It means that should we ever go 1-0 up in the early stages of any match, you can pretty much guarantee we'll lose it.