2010/11 Season Preview

[Rudy Can't Fail]

From the Guardian:

Aston Villa

Unless Martin O'Neill can bring in some last-minute bargains before the transfer window closes this could be a much tougher season for his side

    Does a tough season lie in wait for Martin O'Neill?

Guardian writers' prediction: 8th (NB: this is not necessarily Stuart James's prediction, but the average of our writers' tips)

Last season's position: 6th

Odds to win the league: 200-1

This time last year I suggested that unless there was a flurry of activity before the transfer window shut – and as it happens Richard Dunne, James Collins and Stephen Warnock arrived just before business closed – Aston Villa faced the prospect of going backwards under Martin O'Neill for the first time. Twelve months later the same sentiments appear to apply after another disruptive and underwhelming close-season at Villa Park.

Disruptive again because Manchester City's pursuit of James Milner has mirrored the Gareth Barry saga two years ago, and underwhelming again because of the familiar lack of transfer activity before a new season starts. With a sell-to-buy policy in place, O'Neill needs to move people on, but at the time of writing not one of the six senior players who Villa would listen to offers for – and whose collective wages are close to £250,000 a week in return for no more than the odd outing – has found a new club.

One thing is for sure, no one can criticise Randy Lerner for reining in spending after the last set of accounts (which cover the 2008-09 season). Villa's wage bill increased alarmingly, by 42%, to £71m (£11m more than Tottenham and £21m more than Everton), giving a wages-to-turnover figure of 85%. The bottom line showed that Villa made a £46m loss before tax. In short, the boat has been pushed out at Villa and yet the dream of Champions League football is no closer.

That is not to say that last season was a failure. Plenty of clubs would be delighted to finish sixth in the Premier League, reach the Carling Cup final and get to an FA Cup semi-final in the same season. If we consider Villa have finished in the top six for the past three seasons, it is worth noting that the only other clubs that can say the same are Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal. Not bad company to be keeping, even if Villa are hardly rubbing shoulders with the trio.

So what is there to stop Villa from finishing sixth again? After all, the defence – which had the fourth-best record in the Premier League and, lest it be forgotten, it would have been up there with the very best but for that 7-1 mauling at Chelsea – remains unchanged, O'Neill has stayed on as manager, despite all the mixed messages of a few months ago, and there are signs that in 20-year-old Marc Albrighton, who has been outstanding during pre-season, Villa have a real talent on their hands. That is the good news.

Now for the bad. Milner, who filled Barry's shoes so brilliantly last season, seems certain to leave. Many Villa supporters will feel that £25m-plus for the midfielder is a decent deal, but if Manchester City hold off from coming up with the money until nearer the end of the month, which remains a possibility, where does that leave O'Neill in terms of bringing in replacements? Perhaps more to the point, will O'Neill have all the money to spend?

Certainly the Villa manager can ill afford to lose anyone else from his favoured starting XI, in particular Ashley Young, who is a target for Harry Redknapp at Spurs. Young was overshadowed by Milner last season and failed to recapture the form he showed in the previous campaign, but he remains one of Villa's most influential players. That description should also apply to Stewart Downing after Villa paid £12m for him, but the former Middlesbrough winger has showed only flashes of his ability and needs to have a much greater impact this season.

Two key areas where Villa also need to improve are up front (they were the lowest scorers in the top eight) and at home (where they picked up fewer points than any other club in the top 10). Signing a prolific striker who is capable of scoring 15 league goals a season – something Villa have not had since Juan Pablo Angel registered 16 in 2004 – would certainly help, although it is likely to need more than one player to change Villa from being an excellent counter-attacking team (only Chelsea and United had better away records last season) to one that is also comfortable when the onus is on them to break opponents down.

Villa would appear to have a fight on their hands to stand still and compete with Liverpool and Everton – the clubs that finished immediately below them last season – never mind break into the top four. As I know from last season, making predictions about Villa before the end of August can be dangerous, but unless O'Neill manages to pick up some last-minute bargains, this looks like being a much tougher campaign for them.

[TimTheVillain]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/aug/02/pre-season-preview-aston-villa?CMP=twt_gu

It's the link Mark.

The comments below the write up more or less reflect what's said on here - only some by non Villa fans.

[darren woolley]

some very valid points more or less say's what we are thinking.

[dave.woodhall]

"he's bought a lot of good players (Young, Milner, Dunne, Warnock, Petrov) but can't seem to get his hands on someone with that x factor that can raise them above the merely good."

Good point.

[Concrete John]

I think a couple of ours are more than 'merely good', namely Ash and Milner, but he's bang on about us struggling to get that next level up in player.

[usav]

"he's bought a lot of good players (Young, Milner, Dunne, Warnock, Petrov) but can't seem to get his hands on someone with that x factor that can raise them above the merely good."

Good point.

"can't seem to" is very differnt from "not trying to" - which I fear is the real problem in our case.

[TimTheVillain]

"he's bought a lot of good players (Young, Milner, Dunne, Warnock, Petrov) but can't seem to get his hands on someone with that x factor that can raise them above the merely good."

Good point.

"can't seem to" is very differnt from "not trying to" - which I fear is the real problem in our case.

Or how about 'can't risk signing one who may fail' as could also be the case.

Struck lucky with Ash, but afraid to take anymore risks I reckon.

[Bent Neilsens Screamer]

The comments below the write up more or less reflect what's said on here - only some by non Villa fans.

You cannot take the comments too seriously, one of them has Bolton in the hunt for European football ffs!

[TimTheVillain]

The comments below the write up more or less reflect what's said on here - only some by non Villa fans.

You cannot take the comments too seriously, one of them has Bolton in the hunt for European football ffs!

Self efacement can be charming ;-)

[MarkM]

"he's bought a lot of good players (Young, Milner, Dunne, Warnock, Petrov) but can't seem to get his hands on someone with that x factor that can raise them above the merely good."

Good point.

I agree

[Concrete John]

"he's bought a lot of good players (Young, Milner, Dunne, Warnock, Petrov) but can't seem to get his hands on someone with that x factor that can raise them above the merely good."

Good point.

"can't seem to" is very differnt from "not trying to" - which I fear is the real problem in our case.

Or how about 'can't risk signing one who may fail' as could also be the case.

Struck lucky with Ash, but afraid to take anymore risks I reckon.

The fees paid out for Milner and Delph since then would suggest that's wrong.

[Andy_Lochhead_in_the_air]

"he's bought a lot of good players (Young, Milner, Dunne, Warnock, Petrov) but can't seem to get his hands on someone with that x factor that can raise them above the merely good."

Good point.

The last signing for me who had that real x factor was Dean Saunders.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

"he's bought a lot of good players (Young, Milner, Dunne, Warnock, Petrov) but can't seem to get his hands on someone with that x factor that can raise them above the merely good."

Good point.

"can't seem to" is very differnt from "not trying to" - which I fear is the real problem in our case.

Or how about 'can't risk signing one who may fail' as could also be the case.

Struck lucky with Ash, but afraid to take anymore risks I reckon.

The fees paid out for Milner and Delph since then would suggest that's wrong.

Add to the list Stewart Downing who is certainly a risk.

[JJ-AV]

I'd say he definitely takes the safer option.

If you believe reports we seriouisly looked at Hangeland, Vermaelen, Bosingwa and Jovanovic before going for Davies, Dunne, Luke and Heskey.

Vermaelen confirmed we wouldn't pay his fee in an interview, and MON has said many times he's been getting scout reports from all over but doesn't think there's as much value out there as people claim.

He's taken some calculated risks, but Ashley was what? £9.2million and only £8million upfront. Had he flopped we'd have got most of that back from the Championship.

Like wise with Delph, were we to sell him now we'd get £5million from a lower Premier league club/upper Championship club. We've only paid £6m upfront haven't we?

Whereas if foreigners flop, you get stuck with 'em.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

Whereas if foreigners flop, you get stuck with 'em.

How much do you think we'd get for Downing if we decided to sell him today?