Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: cdbearsfan on August 15, 2019, 12:45:30 PM
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Back by "popular" demand.
Where we can compare results with last season to try to estimate where we are likely to finish.
There didn't seem to be much point in comparing our last season as we are in a different league playing (mostly) different teams.
So, seeing as everyone keeps banging on about us "doing a Fulham", I've based this on their results instead. We can use their results last season as a marker to work out whether we are likely to suffer like they did, or easily leave their points total in our wake.
Results listed as home result, away result, points. So if we won at home and drew away, it would say WD4.
"-" means we have yet to play match(es).
Last season's (Fulham) results listed to the left of the opponents' names, this season's (Villa) scores listed to the right.
I'll try to update this after each game.
LL0 Arsenal WL3
LW3 Bournemouth LL0
WD4 Brighton & Hove Albion WD4
WL3 Burnley DW4
LL0 Chelsea LL0
LL0 Crystal Palace WL3
WL3 Everton WD4
DL1 Leicester City LL0
LL0 Liverpool LL0
LL0 Manchester City LL0
LL0 Manchester United LD1
LD1 Newcastle United WD4
WL3 Norwich City (replacing Cardiff City) WW6
WL3 Sheffield United (replacing Huddersfield Town) DL1
WL3 Southampton LL0
LL0 Tottenham Hotspur LL0
DL1 Watford WL3
LL0 West Ham United DD2
DL1 Wolverhampton Wanderers LL0
Running total for season: 35 points
Fulham total in equivalent matches: 26 points
Balance +/-: +9 points
Goal difference difference: +20
Fulham final points total: 26
Villa final points total: 35
Villa final position: 18th (one place better than Fulham's last season)
Last updated after: West Ham United (away), game thirty-eight
(https://i.ibb.co/mSs1Q4M/AVSwingometer2.jpg) (https://ibb.co/mSs1Q4M)
Graphics provided by CT Villan.
BONUS EXTRA! Final points total, Drummond Method:* 35
*this is (estimated Villa final points total minus Fulham final points total) divided by number of games played so far, then multiplied by 38. Then, finally, added to Fulham points total and rounded up/down.
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Next up, Bournemouth at Villa Park. As they won at Craven Cottage last season, any points gained here mean we already improving on Fulham.
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Ooooo. This is Stats Nerd porn.
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Lots of North Wales postcodes for Fulham last season
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I was wondering whether there'd be swingometer post for the season....but thought it might be a comparison of our horrible season of 15/16. Probably best to forget that.
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I want to know goal difference.
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I want to know goal difference.
And formations, possession stats, shots on target and saves made. :-) In fact that will probably be somewhere - I might have a look.
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I want to know goal difference.
Mallo is on the case 😁
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I was going to suggest someone did one of these. Good work CD!
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Ta. Don't expect updates the second after our games finish as I like to do my timewasting at work 😉
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But...but this doesn’t take into account tactical losses we are willing to take to hurt other teams😄
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*Like*
I hope I'll continue to like it. For that we have to better than Fulham!
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Matching Fulham point for point thus far...
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Wait...
What??
Fucking Fulham beat Everton at home??? 😭😭😭
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2-0 no less.
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They lost three-nil to Bournemouth at home, so we are better than them on goal difference, so far.
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Well there's a sobering thought the morning after.
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Yah but it was April, they were already down and the shackles were off. We had shackles all over us last night and still managed to break free. No more shackles!
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If you put our opening 3 fixtures into context, I would say most ppl would have had us down for either 3 or 4 points:
Spurs: L
Bournemouth: W
Everton: D or L
It’s fair to say that with 3pts on the board, “we’re there or there abouts” where we should be.
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I would say win at Palace: really good start. Draw at Palace, perfectly reasonable start. Lose at Palace, disappointing start.
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We're only one point off fourth :)
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Well, if you're looking for a bright side... Fulham lost two nil ag Palace so we have gained on goal difference!
The opening post now has extra fancy swing-o-meter graphics courtesy of CT Villan. 🙂
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We are on PLUS ONE points!
What a time to be alive!
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Free hit on Sunday too given Fulham got nothing out of Arsenal last year.
I can see us scoring down there - they're shaky at the back - and with our rock solid centre halves you just never know...
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Free hit on Sunday too given Fulham got nothing out of Arsenal last year.
I can see us scoring down there - they're shaky at the back - and with our rock solid centre halves you just never know...
I do kind of keep getting a little sort of feeling that we may win on Sunday. Don't rush out and bet your house on it just yet, but it's a warm sort of feeling and I definitely haven't wet myself ( I checked ).
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Wat ford dominated Arse in the second half and should have won.
They have a real soft Centre and are susceptible to the high press.
Dong let them score first and we could get something.
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Dong let them score first and we could get something.
Yes. We will dick them.
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I didn't know he played for Watford
(http://www.yourememberthat.com/files/ddcdc0c690ee61f0.png)
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I've collected some stats from a few sites and put them in a spreadsheet - Interestingly (or not) Fulham had 11.9 shots per game and average of 49.2% possession which on the face of it are not that bad. They also scored well from open play but only scored 5 from set pieces where most other teams were into double figures. Their away form was terrible, so we'll need to keep an eye on that..
https://ibb.co/b5crNzM (https://ibb.co/b5crNzM)
I've taken an image as I'm not sure we can attach files here.
Here's us so far - worryingly similar :
https://ibb.co/80JcjxP (https://ibb.co/80JcjxP)
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Sigh.
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On the plus side our current ppg will see us finish with 25 points, we'd smash 2015/16 Villa!
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We've gained two goals, too. Fulham lost four-one at Arsenal. The shitebags.
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I might stop doing this its getting depressing
https://ibb.co/9tZLcz2 (https://ibb.co/9tZLcz2)
I think the telling stat is late goals conceded. Definite fitness thing, plus not using subs to keep the defense protected. If we had the likes of Agbonlahor to put on we could still be a threat.
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Oh dear - minus 1 on Fulham last year...
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Sigh.
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Plus points... TAKE THAT FULHAM!
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And after only 7 games too! ;)
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I'm in Lithuania at the moment and a bit busy to get my stats together but I'll post them when I'm back - I expect a Damascus-style reversal.
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What's the consensus on how many points we need to be ahead on the same point last year before we can categorically say "we're not doing a Fulham" or does it have to wait until we are mathematically safe?
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From the equivalent 11 fixtures coming up taking us to the halfway mark of the season on Boxing Day, Fulham picked up 10 points, winning only 3 of them.
If we do the same we'll be on 18 points at halfway which will put us on course for 18th place and relegation.
I would say 5 wins from the next 11 games would put us on track for survival. 22-23 points from 19 games would be fine and probably mean we won't "do a Fulham".
But that is easy said than done, looking particularly at the away fixtures.
The home games in that run are;
Brighton
Liverpool
Newcastle
Leicester
Southampton
Norwich
Away games
Man City
Wolves
Man Utd
Chelsea
Sheff Utd
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From the equivalent 11 fixtures coming up taking us to the halfway mark of the season on Boxing Day, Fulham picked up 10 points, winning only 3 of them.
If we do the same we'll be on 18 points at halfway which will put us on course for 18th place and relegation.
I would say 5 wins from the next 11 games would put us on track for survival. 22-23 points from 19 games would be fine and probably mean we won't "do a Fulham".
But that is easy said than done, looking particularly at the away fixtures.
The home games in that run are;
Brighton
Liverpool
Newcastle
Leicester
Southampton
Norwich
Away games
Man City
Wolves
Man Utd
Chelsea
Sheff Utd
I'm gonna be frank and say that if we can't achieve 15 points out of that lot, we simply don't deserve to be in the Premier League.
I'd be hoping for maximum points from Brighton, Newcastle, Southampton and Norwich.
Draws from Wolves, Man U, Sheffield United and expecting us to lose the rest, although Chelsea could go either way tbh...
Which gives us exactly 15...
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The maths are fairly simple for me.
To "deserve" to stay up, we should be beating the bottom half teams at home (which is 27 points), leaving only 11 points (ie 3 wins and 2 draws) from the remaining 29 games.
I know we've already fluffed this to an extent, but for every Brighton at home there's an Everton at home so over the course of a season it should even itself out.
If we win less than half our home games though we're going to struggle.
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The maths are fairly simple for me.
To "deserve" to stay up, we should be beating the bottom half teams at home (which is 27 points), leaving only 11 points (ie 3 wins and 2 draws) from the remaining 29 games.
I know we've already fluffed this to an extent, but for every Brighton at home there's an Everton at home so over the course of a season it should even itself out.
If we win less than half our home games though we're going to struggle.
You do know Everton are below us right?
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I think 10 wins is the important marker. about 1 in 10 of the teams relegated get 10 wins or more so it's a good target, and the earlier you get it the better. Who they come against is less important but if you can take 6 points off a few sides that are down there you do yourselves a massive favour. I'd be targeting Newcastle, Southampton, Norwich and Brighton as teams we can potentially do that to and we have 4 of them at home in our next 6 so hopefully any fears can be put to bed pretty soon.
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I think getting 15 points from those games will be a bit of a stretch. But I'd also say that we shouldn't be too worried about a slow start. We made a huge amount of changes and were always likely to grow into the season. So long as we don't get cast adrift I'd hope we can improve and catch up in the second half of the season.
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Progress!!
(https://i.ibb.co/hL0K6kw/2019-10-09-18-17-17-Window.png) (https://ibb.co/hL0K6kw)
(https://i.ibb.co/ZHZVZ6b/2019-10-09-18-22-01-Window.png) (https://ibb.co/ZHZVZ6b)
The past seasons comparison is on the up as well. Beat Brighton and we've got a bit of breathing room.
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The maths are fairly simple for me.
To "deserve" to stay up, we should be beating the bottom half teams at home (which is 27 points), leaving only 11 points (ie 3 wins and 2 draws) from the remaining 29 games.
I know we've already fluffed this to an extent, but for every Brighton at home there's an Everton at home so over the course of a season it should even itself out.
If we win less than half our home games though we're going to struggle.
You do know Everton are below us right?
They won't be come May.
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The maths are fairly simple for me.
To "deserve" to stay up, we should be beating the bottom half teams at home (which is 27 points), leaving only 11 points (ie 3 wins and 2 draws) from the remaining 29 games.
I know we've already fluffed this to an extent, but for every Brighton at home there's an Everton at home so over the course of a season it should even itself out.
If we win less than half our home games though we're going to struggle.
You do know Everton are below us right?
They won't be come May.
I'm not so sure about that. I think that after Norwich they're the worst team we've played this year. My best mate and business partner is a big Evertonian, and he reckons they're an absolute shambles. I think they've got as good a team as anybody else outside of the usual teams you'd expect to be in the top 3 or 4, bus as we've seen, everybody seems capable of beating everybody else, and sometimes the difference is only managerial nous and team confidence.
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I can't decide what I think of Everton. On paper a front 4 of Richarlison, Sigurdsson and Iwobi behind Kean looks strong but Richarlison is horribly inconsistent, Iwobi hasn't settled at all (and the price tag is weighing heavy on him) and Kean is a 19 year old kid who's moved to a new country and looks lost (but there's bags of quality there). All that puts lot of pressure on Sigurdsson to make them tick and he's struggling with it right now. Unless those 3 start to tick I can see them struggling.
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Everton will be fine when Mourinho takes over.
I read that on an agriculture forum in the movie and fantasy section.
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Ha ha ha ha.
I'm at an Agricultural exhibition in Germany in November, you can be sure I'll be scanning the various industry
Tractor, Seed Drill, Harrow, Sugarbeet Harvesters etc publications in their.. Other stuff/sports/football/managerial movements sections.
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Everton will be fine when Mourinho takes over.
I read that on an agriculture forum in the movie and fantasy section.
There was a story on a Marvel fansite suggesting Mourinho wants to go to Watford though.
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No change after week nine, but our next SIX games are all ones from which Fulham failed to take a point. So a nice chance to gain eighteen points on them if we can just beat Man City, Liverpool and all the rest. Easy.
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Ha ha ha ha.
I'm at an Agricultural exhibition in Germany in November, you can be sure I'll be scanning the various industry
Tractor, Seed Drill, Harrow, Sugarbeet Harvesters etc publications in their.. Other stuff/sports/football/managerial movements sections.
It's the only sector I trust for football news of any sort. (!) :o :o :o
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Exactly the same scoreline Fulham got last season.
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Five points clear of Fulham now, and just look at the goal difference difference!
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As an aside, we have already won more games than last time we were in this league.
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I think it will come down to our record with the sides around us at the bottom - so far so good, just need to beat Watford, Southampton and Spam and we should be ok. We're bound to get a few freaky results as are they - see Bruceball vs Spuds.
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Five points clear of Fulham now, and just look at the goal difference difference!
I think the goal difference is important andhas been massively overlooked. it's not just good compared to Fulham, it's vastly superior to the bottom 3 and much better than all the other teams around us so it's worth an extra point right now.
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It isn't, though. Because if a team finishes with one point more than us, they'll still finish above us. So our goal difference is worth anything from one-infinitieth of a point to one minus one-infinitieth of a point. But it isn't worth a whole point.
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It isn't, though. Because if a team finishes with one point more than us, they'll still finish above us. So our goal difference is worth anything from one-infinitieth of a point to one minus one-infinitieth of a point. But it isn't worth a whole point.
Having better goal difference for me only counts on the last day if you finish 17th on the same points as the team in 18th. Other than that it may be good for some extra prize money further up the table.
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It isn't, though. Because if a team finishes with one point more than us, they'll still finish above us. So our goal difference is worth anything from one-infinitieth of a point to one minus one-infinitieth of a point. But it isn't worth a whole point.
True, but they do need 1 more point than us, which is all I meant. Aside from that a good goal difference when you're near the bottom is usually a sign that you're a better team than the table is showing.
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Yep, agreed.
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To echo other sentiments, a decent GD is good for morale. We're a third of the way through the season, and the bottom three are already running a deficit in excess of a goal a game. I expect us to be in credit by the time we've played everyone once, the points will come too.
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It isn't, though. Because if a team finishes with one point more than us, they'll still finish above us. So our goal difference is worth anything from one-infinitieth of a point to one minus one-infinitieth of a point. But it isn't worth a whole point.
If you follow the logic though that as a result of our far superior goal difference, the teams around us need to get an extra point to finish above us, then it is worth an extra point.
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It isn't, though. Because if a team finishes with one point more than us, they'll still finish above us. So our goal difference is worth anything from one-infinitieth of a point to one minus one-infinitieth of a point. But it isn't worth a whole point.
If you follow the logic though that as a result of our far superior goal difference, the teams around us need to get an extra point to finish above us, then it is worth an extra point.
Seconded
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It isn't, though. Because if a team finishes with one point more than us, they'll still finish above us. So our goal difference is worth anything from one-infinitieth of a point to one minus one-infinitieth of a point. But it isn't worth a whole point.
If you follow the logic though that as a result of our far superior goal difference, the teams around us need to get an extra point to finish above us, then it is worth an extra point.
Good point.
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I think, as much as anything, it is a reflection of our performances and that fact that we have been pretty competitive in every game. We have only been beaten by more than one goal twice, which fares well in comparison with other sides around and below us who have been getting beaten more convincingly on a more regular basis.
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I think, as much as anything, it is a reflection of our performances and that fact that we have been pretty competitive in every game. We have only been beaten by more than one goal twice, which fares well in comparison with other sides around and below us who have been getting beaten more convincingly on a more regular basis.
and in a lot of those games we were level or ahead going into the last 10. We need to keep working on that and protect our points better but once we get that I think we can go into almost any game with confidence of being able to take the 3 points.
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To gain promotion from Championship or finish in Euro places then you need to average 2 pts per game - it was our target last year IIRC
To stay up I think 38 pts will do it so an average of 1 point per game is required.
We have currently after 13 games - 14 points so on target
If we can get 3 points from next 3 games that will maintain our average until we can play some teams where we should be favourites to win.
3 draws or 1 win and 2 losses will see us ok - personally I would "Love it" if the 3 points came from beating the red cnuts on Sunday more than the others.
Oh and just like Bruce and Smiths history - Smith has played Lampard 3 times as Managers and won convincingly each time ;)
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It isn't, though. Because if a team finishes with one point more than us, they'll still finish above us. So our goal difference is worth anything from one-infinitieth of a point to one minus one-infinitieth of a point. But it isn't worth a whole point.
If you follow the logic though that as a result of our far superior goal difference, the teams around us need to get an extra point to finish above us, then it is worth an extra point.
Not really... because if they get the extra point, they'll finish above us. Therefore our goal difference wasn't worth as much as their extra point.
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So it's worth an extra point as they'll need an extra point (as in 1 more point than us) to finish above us.
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I will be happy when we reach forty points I think we will get between forty and forty seven points.
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To gain promotion from Championship or finish in Euro places then you need to average 2 pts per game - it was our target last year IIRC
To stay up I think 38 pts will do it so an average of 1 point per game is required.
We have currently after 13 games - 14 points so on target
If we can get 3 points from next 3 games that will maintain our average until we can play some teams where we should be favourites to win.
3 draws or 1 win and 2 losses will see us ok - personally I would "Love it" if the 3 points came from beating the red cnuts on Sunday more than the others.
Oh and just like Bruce and Smiths history - Smith has played Lampard 3 times as Managers and won convincingly each time ;)
3 points from the next 3 games
Man Utd, Chelsea and Leicester !
I’d take one point right now
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I will be happy when we reach forty points I think we will get between forty and forty seven points.
You mean between 41 and 48, counting our "extra point"?
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To gain promotion from Championship or finish in Euro places then you need to average 2 pts per game - it was our target last year IIRC
To stay up I think 38 pts will do it so an average of 1 point per game is required.
We have currently after 13 games - 14 points so on target
If we can get 3 points from next 3 games that will maintain our average until we can play some teams where we should be favourites to win.
3 draws or 1 win and 2 losses will see us ok - personally I would "Love it" if the 3 points came from beating the red cnuts on Sunday more than the others.
Oh and just like Bruce and Smiths history - Smith has played Lampard 3 times as Managers and won convincingly each time ;)
3 points from the next 3 games
Man Utd, Chelsea and Leicester !
I’d take one point right now
The highest points any team has been relegated from the premier league with 20 teams is 42 by West Ham some time in the late 90s I think. That should be our target.
So by the halfway point after 19 games (ie after Boxing Day) we need 21 to be on target.
So 7 points required from 6 games :
Man U A
Chelsea A
Leicester H
Sheff Utd A
Soton H
Norwich H
I reckon we will just scrape it with a point somewhere in the next 3 games and 6 points from the games after that.
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So 7 points required from 6 games :
Man U A
Chelsea A
Leicester H
Sheff Utd A
Soton H
Norwich H
I reckon we will just scrape it with a point somewhere in the next 3 games and 6 points from the games after that.
Man U A - D
Chelsea A - L
Leicester H - D
Sheff Utd A - D
Soton H - W
Norwich H - W
9 points. You heard it here first.
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Lose the first two, draw the middle two, win the last two.
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I’d be really disappointed with a loss against manu. Chelsea and Leicester look like hard games though.
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Four points gained on Fulham in a week. Heady days.
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Goal difference difference is up to PLUS TWENTY! 🏜
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How did those shower of shite Fulham get a point against Leicester?
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Beat Southampton and Norwich and it'll look a lot better. Breathing space again.
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Fulham beat Southampton and Norwich. Actually, their home record wasn't that bad. They could have stayed up with a vaguely reasonable away record, but it was even worse than that of 2015/16 Villa. Just five away points all season (we managed six).
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Our away form needs to improve, or it'll send us down again. Joint worst away record with Everton and Norwich. Four points from nearly half the season is very poor, especially considering we've been ahead in quite a few of them.
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Our away form needs to improve, or it'll send us down again. Joint worst away record with Everton and Norwich. Four points from nearly half the season is very poor, especially considering we've been ahead in quite a few of them.
Sure, except of our 7 away games we've played Arsenal, Man City, Wolves, Man Utd, and Chelsea. Of the 2 that weren't again European-qualification level opposition we got robbed 1-0 in one and won 5-1 in the other.
Given the opposition, I don't think our away form is that bad.
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Hang on. If we're 5 points better off right now after 15 games, our estimated number of points and position should be better? i.e. we're averaging a third of a point more per game. That would mean we'd be another 8 points ahead of where they were for our remaining 24 matches. That would give us 39 points.....
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Our away form needs to improve, or it'll send us down again. Joint worst away record with Everton and Norwich. Four points from nearly half the season is very poor, especially considering we've been ahead in quite a few of them.
Sure, except of our 7 away games we've played Arsenal, Man City, Wolves, Man Utd, and Chelsea. Of the 2 that weren't again European-qualification level opposition we got robbed 1-0 in one and won 5-1 in the other.
Given the opposition, I don't think our away form is that bad.
Apart from Norwich and Man United, which account for the 4 points, I think our away form has been poor.
We may have been robbed at Palace, but we were poor, the last 30 minutes at Arsenal were unforgiveable, and whilst the scores were close at Wolves and Chelsea, we were well beaten there as well.
Dean said that the result on Saturday gave the team a 'jab in the ribs' as a reminder, which is almost playing down the fact that we are currently in a relegation fight.
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My prediction is still that we will stay up but it will a narrow and fraught thing, which hasn't changed since pre-season.
I didn't honestly think we'd play as poorly as we have done in the last two games along the way, but ho hum.
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Fulham got six points from the equivalent of our next two games. If we don't get a decent return from our upcoming matches we really could be "doing a..." 😥
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It’s beginning to feel a lot like Fulham, everywhere we go.
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Estimated points total, 28. Pathetic.
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We have surpassed the number of points and the number of wins from last time we were here.
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Estimated points total, 28. Pathetic.
How do you work that out? 18 after 19 = 36 after 38 doesn’t it? Usually that’s enough but it doesn’t look like it will be this year!
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Methodology is shown in the opening post, it's points gained compared to how many Fulham got in the equivalent matches last season.
I very much hope it doesn't prove to be an accurate calculation.
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So are we ahead of Fulham from the same games?
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Yes, by two points.
I'll add the Drummond Method to the opening post, too...
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We're doing a Fulham in style boys. £100+ million spent on utter dog shit and we'll lose Grealish & McGinn into the bargain. Well done Dean, Terry and Pitarch.
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I'll be honest, updating this thread is not a lot of fun at the minute. ☹
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When Fulham "did a Fulham" , did they throw in the towel or were they just not good enough?
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They were pretty much cut adrift all season, weren't they? They only managed to finish nineteenth because Huddersfield somehow managed to be even worse.
Oh, for a nice, cuddly, Huddersfield this season. We are distinctly lacking clubs that know their place and are happy to prop up the table.
Well, except us, of course.
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After 20 games Villa have 18 pts and sit in relegation zone 18th place
This time last season Fulham were 19th and 14points.
Burnley who occupied 18th place after 20 matches finished 15th and 40points
6 PTS clear of 18th place.
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2019/20 bottom 6 after 20 matches
15 Southampton 22pts
16 Bournemouth 20pts
17 West Ham 19pts
18 Aston Villa 18pts
19 Watford 16pts
20 Norwich 13pts
2018/19
Bottom 6 after 20 matches
15 Newcastle 18pts
(finished 13th 45pts)
16 Cardiff 18pts
( relegated 18th 34pts)
17 Soton 15pts
(39 pts finished 16th)
18 Burnley 15pts
(40pts finished 15th)
19 Fulham 14pts
(26pts relegated)
20 Huddersfield 10pts
(relegated 16pts)
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Shower of fucking twats.
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Plus seven points!
Fulham won at Bournemouth last season and so, unbelievably, did 2015-16 Villa. So no let up, please!
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How is this looking now?
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I've updated the OP, just been too miserable to comment. In a brief answer to your question, it's looking quite... Fulhamy. ☹
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Doesn't look good, even with the bonus from my method...
Ah well.
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Villa only need a point from last 10 matches to equal Fulham's points tally !
At this stage last season Fulham were 19th and had 17pts
They managed to get another 9points and still finishing 19th
Here's the relegation comparison after 29 matches
*Villa of course have played only 28
So as we know currently this is how things stand
2019/20 bottom 6 after 29 matches
15 Brighton 29pts
16 West Ham 27pts
17 Watford 27pts
18 Bournemouth 27pts
19 *Aston Villa 25 pts
20 Norwich 21pts
2018/19
Bottom 6 after 29 matches
Brighton played 28
15. *Brighton 30pts
(finished 16th 36pts)
16.Burnley 30pts
(40pts finished 15th)
17. Southampton 27pts
(39 pts finished 16th)
18.Cardiff 25pts
(relegated 18th 34pts)
19 Fulham 17 pts
(26pts relegated)
20 Huddersfield 14 pts
(relegated 16pts)
The final table and points accumulated in the run in.
15.Burnley 40pts
(10pts in 10 matches)
16.So'ton 39pts
(12pts in 10 matches)
17.Brighton 36pts
(6pts in10 matches)
18.Cardiff 34pts
(9pts in 9 matches)
19.Fulham 26
(9pts in 9 matches)
20.Huddersfield 16pts
(2pts in 9 matches)
what last season shows us
1. None of the six achieved more than equivalent of 4 wins from 9 matches.
2.Brighton who had the most matches remaining ,10 matches , achieved equivalent of 2 wins - 6points.
3.18th and 19th place teams pick up equivalent of 3 wins-9 points . It wasn't enough
4.The lowest 6 teams remained the bottom 6 but some teams changed final placings
5.The bottom 3 with 9 games remaining stayed the same
Hopeful?
1. Villa to get 10/11 pts on remaining games I think we have a good chance we can be safe. The equivalent of 3 wins and a draw in 10 matches.
2. The Sheffield Utd match must win. Will give us an edge and basically averaging at least a point a game I think would see us narrowly survive though it will be close. So to not be in the bottom 3 with 9 games remaining would enhance our chances.
3.In 10 matches =12 pts (4 wins equivalent) and I would be very confident of staying up .
Sheffield Utd, Palace , Newcastle ,Everton ???
4.Our first 10 matches of this season saw us gain 11pts we had 3 wins 2 draws after 10 games .
5.Points wise we'll outdo Fulham but of course the real question is will we retain our status !
Personally i think 10/12 PTS is needed for survival.
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Two points dropped on Fulham. We are running out of games.
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2018/19 Fulham 1 Chelsea 2
2019/20 Aston Villa 1... ah, you get the idea.
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I know how this ends
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2018/19 Fulham 1 Chelsea 2
2019/20 Aston Villa 1... ah, you get the idea.
Cardiff also lost a similar game at home to Chelsea. Were 1 up and lost to two goals in five minutes in the second half.
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Yes, of course. Fulham got a draw at Newcastle.
We've dropped a fraction of a point on The Drummond Method which now means I have to round down. That's about it.
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Worrying times. Fulham won 3 of their final 7 games last season.
With the point we have at least moved ahead of their points total from last year.
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Even the Drummond Method only shows us getting 27 points. Doomed. ☹
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Fulham 1 Wolves 1 last season btw.
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Yep, that's why we are down to +1. They got zero points from the remaining equivalent matches last season.
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Oh how we laughed at the comparisons... This is a catastrophe in every sense for the club. Why is no one making the big decisions need to have a fucking fighting change at least?
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Oh how we laughed at the comparisons... This is a catastrophe in every sense for the club. Why is no one making the big decisions need to have a fucking fighting change at least?
It really isn't a catastrophe. It would've been good to make a better fist of it and I have to say I'm surprised at how hard we're making it look, but 17th was the target and we're only not there because of goal difference.
Even if the worst happens and we go down we'll go down with a better team and squad than last time, a better manager, more money, and we won't be in the death spiral we were last time.
It really isn't the end of the world.
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Fulham 1 Liverpool 2
Liverpool 2 Fulham 0.
😒
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I think I know how this one ends...
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So we have done a Fulham.
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It’s not over ‘til it’s over. We haven’t done a Fulham yet and we never will. :)
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Fulham Villa lost three-nil at home to them, too. Obviously.
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Obviously we haven’t done a Fulham like getting rid of the team spirit that got promoted and bought in a load of over paid expensive shit not good enough for the Premier League.
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And this is probably the thing that grinds my gears the most. I absolutely piled into those lazy wazzocks on social media that said that we were 'doing a Fulham' before the season. This wasn't coming from informed impartial posters, just twats that were desperate to have a pop at the Villa.
I gave all the reasons why our situations were different, repeated all the rhetoric about signing players we knew, increased resale value, young upgrades, our sheer necessity to sign players etc, etc.
And after all that to think its come to this, endless chirping on that we've 'done a Fulham'. Feck me Villa, feck me.
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But they're still wrong, of course.
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Gained three points on Fulham last season. What a bloody team.
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And with Fulham losing all three of the equivalent remaining games we have everything to gain!
What a time to be alive!
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The good times keep on rolling.
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Gained a point on Fulham. Yay, go us.
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We're absolutely romping this!
If we do better than Fulham we get to stay up, right?!
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Pretty sure that's the rule. And, ideally, they base it on who went furthest in the League Cup.
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The clearest way that we have done a Fulham, is that we went up through the play-offs, and so had the worst team of all the promoted clubs, and the shortest amount of time to prepare for the EPL. Fulham went up with 88 points, whereas we went up with 76 the following season, so we had an even lower starting point than them.
Fulham had a tough time last season, despite spending £104m, and finished below the two other promoted clubs with 26 points. We finished 18 points behind Norwich last season, so the £136m that we have outspent them by this season has at least bought us a 28 point swing. Small comfort.
Fulham paid £22m for Mitrovic who scored 11 of their 34 goals, and was probably their best business that summer. Of course he was relatively low risk, having already spent half a season on loan there, as well as being an international with a season and a half of experience in the EPL. We effectively tried to sign Tammy for the similar reasons. Seri has arguably turned out to be a worse signing for Fulham than any of ours are likely to. He cost them £27m and is now on loan at Galatasary.
Our mistakes in the transfer market this season are more who we didn't buy (i.e. at least another striker) than who we did. Although I suppose we would have been able to sign other players if we hadn't spent the money on the ones that we did! None of them were bargains, and I didn't understand why we were targeting the Belgian league where we didn't seem to be getting great value.
We went down so catastrophically in 15/16 that we didn't have any saleable assets. we sold six players for £5-7m, and struggled to get rid of the deadwood, whilst Gueye, Traore, Veretout, Amavi and Ayew ultimately all left for less than their worth. Newcastle on the other hand were able to get £14m for Townsend, £24 for Wijnaldum and £31m for Sissoko, keep hold of most of their squad, and get back up at the first attempt (with the help of a good manager). We had a net spend of £36m in 16/17 whilst Newcastle had a net income of about the same amount.
The ultimate test will be the aftermath of our (almost) inevitable relegation. If the relatively young players who haven't proven good enough for the EPL can help us get promoted at the first attempt, then we will definitely be in a better position in a years time than we were a year ago, when we had to completely re-build the squad, and 'did a Fulham'.
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Sorry to press the point again, but we didn't 'do a Fulham'.
They chose to buy ten/eleven players; we were compelled to as our promotion squad was gutted by mass departures.
However, if you choose to stick to this opinion, at least you have a glowing future as a Guardian sportswriter!!
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Sorry to press the point again, but we didn't 'do a Fulham'.
I agree - that was meant to be the implied by the opening point in my post, and I should have probably said 'when people judged that we' in the last paragraph to be clearer. I got lost in a 'who signed who' internet rabbit hole in-between which also didn't help!
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No problems, mate.
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If we do go down, will doing a Fulham then be known as doing a Villa?
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If we do go down, will doing a Fulham then be known as doing a Villa?
Well no, because someone will say, they did not do a Villa because they did not buy a Brazilian Centre forward, or play in Claret and blue or be based in Birmingham.
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Nor are they followed by the African Car Reverser.
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The "doing a Fulham" has always been a lazy comment.
We bought out of necescity and didn't buy as well as we could. Fulham made an active choice to rip up what worked and start again. Fulham might say they felt compelled to strengthen, but they had a choice, we didn't.
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The "doing a Fulham" has always been a lazy comment.
We bought out of necescity and didn't buy as well as we could. Fulham made an active choice to rip up what worked and start again. Fulham might say they felt compelled to strengthen, but they had a choice, we didn't.
I've never really understood the determination to insist that "doing a Fulham" is somehow completely misleading or inaccurate. They spent a lot after promotion, their new signings didn't improve the team, they went down.
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The "doing a Fulham" has always been a lazy comment.
We bought out of necescity and didn't buy as well as we could. Fulham made an active choice to rip up what worked and start again. Fulham might say they felt compelled to strengthen, but they had a choice, we didn't.
I've never really understood the determination to insist that "doing a Fulham" is somehow completely misleading or inaccurate. They spent a lot after promotion, their new signings didn't improve the team, they went down.
Because it was the assumption that if you spend loads, you automatically go down and "do a Fulham". It was nonsense then, its nonsense now.
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Whether you like it or not there are a lot of similarities in what we've done. Yes, our squad was thinner but we didn't HAVE to release Hutton, Whelan, Jedinak, Chester and Albert. Yes they probably were not good enough for the PL, but that is the judment Fulham made about some of their squad too. The fact our players contracts were ending doesn't make that decision that different.
We both spent a lot of money, bought pooorly and (probably) got relegated because of it. I appreciate the phrase is annoying and I've argued against it a lot myself. But the reality is if we haven't 'done a Fulham' then we have done something pretty damn similar.
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Yes, even if we go down it won't be because we spent loads. Spending loads is the reason we still have a chance going into the last week of the season. We would have a Norwich type points total if we had decided to try to stay up on the cheap. They finished miles ahead of us last year and, unless they get a shock result against Man City, they'll be finishing on 21 poxy points.
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Yes, even if we go down it won't be because we spent loads. Spending loads is the reason we still have a chance going into the last week of the season. We would have a Norwich type points total if we had decided to try to stay up on the cheap. They finished miles ahead of us last year and, unless they get a shock result against Man City, they'll be finishing on 21 poxy points.
It's not about spending loads, it's about spending poorly on too many players.
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We had to buy loads of players, we had loads leave. I agree about the buying poorly, but if one of Wesley or Samatta (combined value approx £35 million) had turned out to be even vaguely decent, we would be safe by now.
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We had to buy loads of players, we had loads leave. I agree about the buying poorly, but if one of Wesley or Samatta (combined value approx £35 million) had turned out to be even vaguely decent, we would be safe by now.
But my point is Fulham felt the same. Just because their poorer players contracts weren't up doesn't necessarily mean they were not essentially making the same decision we did.
I honestly think if we'd got Benrahma, Maupay and Philiips instead of Wesley, Samatta, Trez, Jota, Nakamba, Luiz & one of Konsa or Engels then we'd be comfortably safe now. This would probably have meant keeping Whelan, Chester and possibly Albert as squad fillers, but they wouldn't have played anymore than Jota or Lansbury anyway.
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I'm not sure Phillips was available, and just signing those players would have left us very prone to injury. It is easy be wise after the event. At the time we needed strength all over the place, you're always buying on the basis that not every signing is going to be a world beater but if you have cover in each position then you'll be able to muddle through.
Not having sufficient cover up front so that we could replace Wesley/Samatta with an actual goal threat is likely to be what proves fatal, not signing a few bench warmers.
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That's my whole point. We could have kept some of our own bench warmers and signed fewer quality players where we really needed it. Yes it would have been a thin squad, but we've got so much dross our squad is thin anyway.
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The "doing a Fulham" has always been a lazy comment.
We bought out of necescity and didn't buy as well as we could. Fulham made an active choice to rip up what worked and start again. Fulham might say they felt compelled to strengthen, but they had a choice, we didn't.
I've never really understood the determination to insist that "doing a Fulham" is somehow completely misleading or inaccurate. They spent a lot after promotion, their new signings didn't improve the team, they went down.
Because it was the assumption that if you spend loads, you automatically go down and "do a Fulham". It was nonsense then, its nonsense now.
Isn't it more about spending loads badly though, rather than just spending loads?
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If the worst happens over the next few days
next season it will be called 'doing a Villa'
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I'm on the 'it's just a lazy comparison' side of this.
Norwich spent fuck all and are going down, we spent loads and might go down, Sheffield U were in the middle and are top half. None of this means anything to the teams that come up this season and what happened last season means nothing to us. None of those 3 options are right or wrong, removing all context to use the amount of money we spent as a stick to beat us with is half-arsed journalism at best.
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Fulham 1 Arsenal 5.
Eight more points than Fulham. I think this is the best it has been, so much so that I don't actually have a graphic for +8!
Goal difference eighteen better than theirs.
Three more points will see us finish 17th based on last year's table and, almost certainly, would be enough to see us finish 17th in real life.
We aren't just playing for survival, we're playing to prove the accuracy of the Swing-o-Meter. Come on Villa!
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To confirm:
We didn't do a Fulham.
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Mission for 2020/21... do a Leicester.
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Sorry Fulham.
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Mission for 2020/21... do a Leicester.
I want champs league qualification next season so Leicester isn’t good enough!
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can we lock this thread too. I'm fucking tired of we are doing a Fulham. We didn't
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I haven't updated it yet, so no. I'll do it tomorrow when my pulse is at a more normal level, hopefully.
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Big swinging Mickey!
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Mission for 2020/21... do a Leicester.
I want champs league qualification next season so Leicester isn’t good enough!
The year after scraping survival with a late run of form, they won the league. I'd settle for that.😜
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Yeah, that's what I was referring to. 🙂
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Well, all done for the season. Another point gained on Fulham, who we now never have to mention again. Well, until at least next season, if they win the playoffs.
The Swing-o-Meter had us finishing 18th based on last year's tables. But, much like opinion polls, it can't be relied upon to provide an accurate final result... we finished seventeenth in the table that matters!
Thanks to CT Villan for all his graphical wizardry throughout the season, and see you all next year. Talking of which, I'm happy to have this sponsored next time around if anyone fancies bunging a few quid to Acorns, if the mods don't mind.. 😀
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Last time we got promoted to the top flight, we finished one place above the relegation zone and then were Runners-Up the season afterwards in 1990.
So I'd begrudgingly accept that next season.
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Wonder if any of the promoted clubs will do a Villa.
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As a Fulham I’ve been reading this with interest, we spent a similar amount to you after our promotion, our problems were similar to you, paying big money for unknown quality players, plus players that were excellent in the championship failed to perform in the premiership, plus the premier league players we loaned were not good enough, the difference between us last season and you this season is that from after about Raneris four or fifth in charge game we were dead man walking, and with Huddersfield being crap as well they was only one relegation place available, we as this year the bottom six has been at similar level, so it’s been more competitive, hopefully next season if were promoted we do a comparison of fixtures, well done on staying up, Hope to be playing you next season
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Well, all done for the season. Another point gained on Fulham, who we now never have to mention again. Well, until at least next season, if they win the playoffs.
The Swing-o-Meter had us finishing 18th based on last year's tables. But, much like opinion polls, it can't be relied upon to provide an accurate final result... we finished seventeenth in the table that matters!
Thanks to CT Villan for all his graphical wizardry throughout the season, and see you all next year. Talking of which, I'm happy to have this sponsored next time around if anyone fancies bunging a few quid to Acorns, if the mods don't mind.. 😀
You mean it was flawed all along?! 😉
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No, the Swing-o-Meter is flawless. It's last season's matches that were wrong.
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As a Fulham I’ve been reading this with interest, we spent a similar amount to you after our promotion, our problems were similar to you, paying big money for unknown quality players, plus players that were excellent in the championship failed to perform in the premiership, plus the premier league players we loaned were not good enough, the difference between us last season and you this season is that from after about Raneris four or fifth in charge game we were dead man walking, and with Huddersfield being crap as well they was only one relegation place available, we as this year the bottom six has been at similar level, so it’s been more competitive, hopefully next season if were promoted we do a comparison of fixtures, well done on staying up, Hope to be playing you next season
Cheers mate, good luck in the playoffs.
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No, the Swing-o-Meter is flawless. It's last season's matches that were wrong.
Ah, the old financial modeling excuse. It's not the model that's at fault, it's just that reality changed!
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As a Fulham I’ve been reading this with interest, we spent a similar amount to you after our promotion, our problems were similar to you, paying big money for unknown quality players, plus players that were excellent in the championship failed to perform in the premiership, plus the premier league players we loaned were not good enough, the difference between us last season and you this season is that from after about Raneris four or fifth in charge game we were dead man walking, and with Huddersfield being crap as well they was only one relegation place available, we as this year the bottom six has been at similar level, so it’s been more competitive, hopefully next season if were promoted we do a comparison of fixtures, well done on staying up, Hope to be playing you next season
Was in the Cedar Tree in Putney last week whilst the Wigan game was on. Shame you couldn't pip Olbiyun to automatic promotion.
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As a Fulham I’ve been reading this with interest, we spent a similar amount to you after our promotion, our problems were similar to you, paying big money for unknown quality players, plus players that were excellent in the championship failed to perform in the premiership, plus the premier league players we loaned were not good enough, the difference between us last season and you this season is that from after about Raneris four or fifth in charge game we were dead man walking, and with Huddersfield being crap as well they was only one relegation place available, we as this year the bottom six has been at similar level, so it’s been more competitive, hopefully next season if were promoted we do a comparison of fixtures, well done on staying up, Hope to be playing you next season
[/quote
Your team that went up though was by and large your own. Ours wasn't. We had no choice but to build a new squad very quickly last summer as we lost about ten players after the playoff final. From what I remember you went up with a very good side and just bought expensive additions unnecessarily and it upset your team spirit.
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Wonder if any of the promoted clubs will do a Villa.
Survive you mean? Hopefully the 2 already confirmed won't, can't see the Throstles staying up, they have to be nailed on favourites for the drop.
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Hard to tell with Leeds. Baggies will spend fuck all and they weren't any good in the first place, only going up because of Brentford's Devon Loch impression. Playoff winners tend to go down, so that's only one space to fill.
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I accept that the playoff team was mainly ours, but we lost both full backs who turned out to be decent premiership defenders, the two centre halves both struggled big time whenever they played in the premiership, out of the midfielders and forwards the only one who performed well in the premiership was Mitrovic, Sessegnon and Carney were pretty disappointing for the whole season, at the time I thought we’d have a good season, it’s the hope that kills,!!!
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Hey Franky, what are your thoughts on tonight? Cardiff are dark horses for me.
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Not sure it’s been a funny old season and I don’t just mean the lockdown, for me it’s not been like any promotion/run to the playoffs I’ve ever experienced, over the course of the season there’s probably only two or three really good games, lots of crappy 1-0 wins that you forget as soon as the game finishes, the plus thing for me this season has been that if we score first we normally win or least not lose, been quite disappointed with our forwards this season we’ve been pretty toothless, if we didn’t have Mitrovic I think we would have struggled, as too tonight Cardiff are coming into the on the back of bit to form, but our form not to bad either, lost the first two game after lockdown but then won 5 out 7
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Hard to tell with Leeds. Baggies will spend fuck all and they weren't any good in the first place, only going up because of Brentford's Devon Loch impression. Playoff winners tend to go down, so that's only one space to fill.
🤔
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Four of the previous five went down before yesterday.
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18 out of 30 since 1990.
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Good luck to you and Fulham
Craven Cottage is the favourite away day for many Villa fans - me included
CHEERS buddy
VCTM
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Hey Franky, well done on tonight's result. Not an easy place to win at, and I backed Cardiff, shows what I know!
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Good luck to you and Fulham
Craven Cottage is the favourite away day for many Villa fans - me included
CHEERS buddy
VCTM
I'd love it even more if we ever bloody won there
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You want the Moon on a stick.